TODAY’S GAME PLAN: from the trading
desk, this is not research
TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:
ADP Employment Change (8:15ET), Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, Trade Balance, Exports and Imports MoM (8:30ET), S&P Global PMI (9:45ET), and ISM Services (10:00ET).
Fed speakers include New York Fed’s Williams (12:05ET) and Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (19:00ET)
Highlights and News:
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Trump says US may have to ‘unwind’ trade deals if it loses tariff case
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Lisbon mourns 17 victims of streetcar crash after cable snaps
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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said his country would “fully support” Russia’s army
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DeepSeek targets AI agent release by end of year to rival OpenAI
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Goldman to buy $1 billion of T. Rowe stock in private-funds deal
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Apple to raise iPhone prices for the first time in 7 years: Morgan Stanley
Global stocks and bonds tick higher with traders ramping up bets on faster-paced interest cuts by the Federal Reserve. Consumer price data showed a rise above the
Swiss National Bank’s estimate, indicating sticky inflation and raising chances the SNB will stay on hold for the remainder of the year. Euro area’s retail sales fell 0.5% MoM, more than economists expected in July. Asia also saw broad gains despite a report
stating that Chinese regulators are mulling cooling measures for the rallying stock market. Policy makers in India announced a range of consumption tax cuts to boost local demand. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump asked the US Supreme Court to uphold his global
tariffs, a decision which will impact trillions of dollars in trade. Traders are also monitoring the status of the Federal Reserve openings, with the team at JPMorgan seeing increasing concern from market participants about its independence. Investors will
shift focus to US data today, with emphasis on jobless claims and PMI.
EQUITIES:
US equity futures indicate a slightly higher open for stocks, continuing yesterday’s late session rally. AI continues to be a focus today, with tech leaders Zuckerberg, Cook, and Nadella
expected to attend an AI event with the Trumps in Washington. Bloomberg Economics expects jobless claims to point to low layoffs in August, with pressure concentrated in some states and DOGE cost cuts.
Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.2%, Russell 2000 +0.3%, DJI +0.02%
In pre-market trading, American Eagle (AEO) gains 26% after the clothing retailer reported better-than-expected 2Q revenue, boosted by demand following its Sydney Sweeney
ad campaign. Credo Technology (CRDO) is up 11% after reporting adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Figma (FIG) falls 15% after the software design company forecast annual sales that failed to impress Wall
Street’s lofty expectations. This was the company’s first report since it went public in late July. GitLab (GTLB) is down 7% after the software company gave an outlook for third-quarter revenue that was weaker than expected. It also said that Brian Robins
will step down as chief financial officer. HP Enterprise (HPE) is up 3% even as the company expects narrower profit margins as it enters the next leg of AI-driven demand. Bloomberg Intelligence says that with server execution issues behind it, the company
should get free cash flow back on track in fiscal 2026. Salesforce (CRM) is down 7% after the software company gave an outlook that was seen as underwhelming.
Shares in Europe rise following recent concern in government spending and bond volatility. Media stocks were the best performing in the region, with Publicis Groupe
up 3.5% after CEO Arthur Sadoun expressed confidence in the second half. The travel and leisure sector, however, was a big underperformer. Budget airlines including EasyJet Plc and Ryanair Holdings Plc dropped after a profit warning from Jet2 Plc, which sank
as much as 25%. Sanofi shares plunged after its experimental drug for atopic dermatitis disappointed investors with a less-than-expected benefit in a late-stage trial. However, the Stoxx 600 hit a session high after French President Emmanuel Macron said he
will seek to avoid calling a snap election if his prime minister loses a confidence vote next week. Stoxx 600 +0.5%, DAX +0.7%, CAC -0.3%, FTSE 100 +0.2%, IBEX35 +0.5%
In Asia, stock indexes snap a two-day losing streak despite a drag by Chinese benchmarks. Hang Seng and Shanghai’s index fell 1.1% and 2.1% respectively after a report
showed China’s financial regulators are considering several cooling measures for the stock market as they grow concerned about the speed of a $1.2 trillion rally since the start of August. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2% behind strong performance from
financials like Commonwealth bank of Australia and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group. Japan saw the largest gains in the region as the Nikkei 225 climbed over 1.5%, SoftBank and Sony Group among key advancers. Shares of Apple suppliers in Asia, including Cowell
e Holdings and BYD Electronic, see significant gains after the iPhone maker revised shipment forecasts upward for its foldable phones over the next two years. CSI 300 -2.1%, Hang Seng Index -1.1%, ASX 200 +1.0%, Sensex +0.2%, Taiwan +0.3%, Philippines +0.4%.
Thailand -0.5%, Singapore +0.2%, Topix +1.0%, Indonesia -0.2%, Kospi +0.5%.
FIXED INCOME:
U.S. Treasuries extend gains as traders stepped up wagers on a faster pace of US interest-rate cuts ahead of Friday’s pivotal jobs report. Long-end gilts outperform, flattening the UK
yield curve. US 1-year yields are 2bps richer, slightly underperforming bunds and gilts. Data continues to highlight softness in the labor market, and swaps show traders are now split on the likelihood of a second rate cut in October. US 10-yr yield: 4.2%;
US 2-yr yield: 3.6%
METALS:
ENERGY:
Oil prices continued their decline as stockpile data weighs on price. Industry estimates show crude inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub expanded by 2.1
million barrels last week. Further fears of higher volume hurt the commodity as prospects of increased production from suppliers at Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting loom. Brent oil has fallen nearly 10% this year as the alliance has unwound deep output curbs to reclaim
market share. WTI -1.5%, Brent -1.4%, US Nat Gas +1.5%, RBOB -0.3%.
CURRENCIES:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1%, erasing its Wednesday losses. The Norwegian krone leads declines among G-10 peers against the greenback, falling 0.6%. USD/JPY is up 0.2% as
Japan and the US are in final stages of talks to reduce tariffs on Japanese automobile imports. The Australian dollar declined against nearly all G-10 peers as its biggest trading partner, China, is dragged by the threat of regulatory cooling measures for
the stock market. US$ Index flat +0.1%, GBPUSD flat, EURUSD -0.1%, USDJPY -0.2%, AUDUSD -0.4%, NZDUSD -0.3%, USDCHF -0.1%, USDCAD -0.2%, USDSEK -0.3%, USDNOK -0.5%
Bitcoin -1.2%, Ethereum -1.2%
Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance
- Upgrades
- Apple (AAPL) Raised to Neutral at MoffettNathanson LLC
- Bird Construction (BDT CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank; PT C$28
- Brinker (EAT) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $210
- Copart (CPRT) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $62
- Leidos (LDOS) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $210
- Quebecor (QBR/B CN) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT C$4
- Downgrades
- Upgrades
- Apple (AAPL) Raised to Neutral at MoffettNathanson LLC
- Bird Construction (BDT CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank; PT C$28
- Brinker (EAT) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $210
- Copart (CPRT) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $62
- Leidos (LDOS) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $210
- Quebecor (QBR/B CN) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT C$4
- Initiations
- AptarGroup (ATR) Reinstated Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $220
- BridgeBio Oncology Therapeutics (BBOT) US Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $23
- Chipotle (CMG) Rated New Hold at Freedom Capital; PT $47
- CMB Tech (CMBT BB) Rated New Buy at SEB Equities; PT $11.20
- Critical Metals (CRML) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $12
- Darden (DRI) Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $255
- Entegris (ENTG) Rated New Market Perform at Oppenheimer; PT $95
- Entergy (ETR) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $109
- GeneDx Holdings Corp (WGS) Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $163
- Ideaya Biosciences (IDYA) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $40
- Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens
- Ivanhoe Electric/US (IE) Rated New Outperform at National Bank
- Janux Therapeutics (JANX) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $72
- Lifecore Biomedical (LFCR) Rated New Sector Weight at KeyBanc
- MasTec (MTZ) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $215
- Middleby (MIDD) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $163
- Montage Gold (MAU CN) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
- Neuphoria Therapeutics (NEUP) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets
- Praxis Precision (PRAX) Rated New Outperform at LifeSci Capital
- Primoris Services (PRIM) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities
- Pyxis Oncology (PYXS) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $5
- Quanta Services (PWR) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $360
- SQM (SQM/B CI) ADRs Reinstated Outperform at Itau BBA; PT $55
- Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $40
- TechnipFMC (FTI) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
- Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $211
- TransMedics (TMDX) Rated New Neutral at Stifel; PT $115
- W&T Offshore (WTI) Rated New Buy at Pareto Securities; PT $2.50
Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG
Bryan Duong
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