Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on September 9, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  10:00ET Prelim. Benchmark Payrolls Revision; 1:00ET 3-Year Note Auction, Apple product launch
event

Highlights and News:  

  • BLS Revisions May Show Jobs Data Overstated
  • Israel Orders All Gaza City Residents to Leave Ahead of Assault
  • Anglo to Buy Teck in Deal Reshaping Industry
  • French PM Francois Bayrou will resign today
  • Pentagon said two Venezuelan military aircraft flew dangerously close to a US Navy vessel operating in international waters
  • Chicago Bears are planning to move out of the city and build a new stadium in Arlington Heights with zero state money for construction

 

Global stocks edged higher as anticipation for US rate cuts grew and a surge in European merger activity offset political turbulence in France and Japan. Banca Monte
dei Paschi di Siena SpA has secured a majority stake in Mediobanca SpA, cementing a once-unthinkable €16 billion takeover that’s set to reshape Italian finance. Anglo American jumped after agreeing to combine with Canada’s Teck Resources. Novartis agreed to
buy Tourmaline Bio in a cash deal valued at about $1.4 billion. Norwegian PM Jonas Gahr Store is starting talks to form a new Labor government after his election win. Israel ordered Gaza City’s residents to leave in advance of a major military offensive, with
officials vowing devastation unless Iran-backed Hamas surrenders.

 

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures were muted after major indexes hit near-record highs on Monday, with investors cautious before an upcoming employment rate revision. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will
publish a preliminary benchmark revision, which economists expect to show that US job growth in the year through March was probably far less robust than official figures currently show. In corporate news, Microsoft will spend up to $19.4 billion to get cloud
computing power from Nebius. Goldman won a $40 billion mandate from Shell to oversee pension and insurance assets in one of the biggest outsourced deals of its kind.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.2%, Russell 2000 ~flat, DJI +0.1%

In pre-market trading, Atlassian Corp. (TEAM) rises 5% after announcing it is ending its data center product over the coming three years and will move customers to
its cloud platform. Brighthouse Financial (BHF) is up 11% after the Financial Times reported that Aquarian Holdings is in late-stage talks with two Middle Eastern investors to finance a takeover of the life insurer. Fox Corp. (FOXA) falls 4% and News Corp.
(NWSA) declines 4% after Rupert Murdoch and his children resolved a messy family feud with a settlement that gives favored son Lachlan Murdoch broad control. Planet Labs (PL) is down 10% after the company said it would offer $300 million of Convertible Senior
Notes due 2030. Nebius (NBIS) jumps 54% after the AI-centric cloud platform company said it will provide Microsoft access to GPU infrastructure capacity at its new data center in Vineland, New Jersey, over five years. Sable Offshore (SOC) falls 9% following
news that Governor Gavin Newsom seeks to impose further restrictions on California’s offshore oil industry. Teck Resources Ltd.’s US-listed shares (TECK) climb 16% after Anglo American PLC agreed to acquire the Canadian miner. UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH)
rises 4% after saying it expects most of its Medicare Advantage members to be in highly rated plans that earn bonus payments next year.

European gauges are mixed in choppy trade as investors looked out for the next steps in France’s battle to repair its finances. French President Emmanuel Macron will
appoint a new prime minister within days, as Bayrou is formally presenting his resignation today. The Stoxx 600 erased an earlier gain to trade modestly higher, with losses in aero & defense offset by gains in miners and real estate stocks. Shares of Anglo
American jumped 9% after the miner said it has agreed to merge with Canada’s Teck Resources in one of the biggest mining deals in more than a decade. ASML is investing $1.5 billion in France’s Mistral AI, becoming its largest shareholder. Stoxx 600 +0.15%,
DAX -0.3%, CAC +0.4%, FTSE 100 +0.3%. Basic Resources +2.2%, Media +1.7%, Real Estate +1.6%. Aero & Defense -1.1%, Industrials -0.4%.

Shares in Asia advanced as tech and Chinese property stocks climbed, and investors continued to eye prospects for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The MSCI
Asia Pacific Index rose 0.6% to its highest since February 2021, with TSMC, Alibaba and Tencent among the biggest boosts. Taiwan’s Taiex jumped more than 1% to a fresh record, and Korea’s Kospi touched a new high for the year. Taiwan’s exports hit a record
$58.5 billion in August, surging more than 34% from a year ago, boosted by strong tech demand despite new US tariffs. Hong Kong stocks extended their rally amid continued optimism over artificial intelligence and positive policy signals for the real estate
sector. Shares in Indonesia declined after the longtime finance minister was removed. Hang Seng Tech +1.3%, Kospi +1.25%, Taiwan +1.25%, Hang Seng Index +1.2%, Thailand +0.8%, Vietnam +0.8%, Sensex +0.4%, Philippines +0.3%. Singapore -0.25%, Topix -0.5%, ASX
200 -0.5%, CSI 300 -0.7%, Indonesia -1.8%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries slipped, snapping a four-day winning streak as investors braced for inflation readings this week which may show that ongoing price pressures could stand
in the way of US interest rate cuts. US 10-year yield is up 2 bps to 4.06% and the curve is relatively flat. Stephen Miran’s nomination as a Fed governor has been scheduled for a Senate committee vote on Wednesday, a move that will likely allow him to be confirmed
by the full Senate before next week’s FOMC meeting. Swaps are pricing at least four quarter-point cuts by the time Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May. Treasury’s 3-year note auction, the month’s first coupon sale, kicks off a cycle that also includes
$39 billion 10-year and $22 billion 30-year reopenings Wednesday and Thursday.

 

METALS: 

Spot gold hit another record high near $3,660 as the dollar remains heavy on Fed rate-cut expectations. The US Federal Reserve will decide on interest rates on Wednesday
next week. For now, investors are awaiting the US consumer price inflation data, due out tomorrow. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is widely expected to hold rates at its meeting on Thursday. Spot gold +0.4%, Silver -0.5%, Copper futures -0.05%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil extended gains as investors weighed the prospect for softening demand after Saudi Arabia cut pricing for most of its grades. Prices were supported by expectations
that China will continue stockpiling oil and concerns over potential new sanctions on Russia. The European Union’s top sanctions official was in Washington with a team of experts to discuss what would be the first coordinated transatlantic measures against
Russia since Trump returned to office. On the geopolitical front, the Pentagon said two Venezuelan military aircraft flew dangerously close to a US Navy vessel operating in international waters. The incident occurred just days after President Trump ordered
a strike in the region that killed suspected narco-terrorists.  WTI +1%, Brent +1%, US Nat Gas +1.5%, RBOB +1.5%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar fluctuated as traders braced for benchmark revisions to employment data that could show up to one million fewer jobs than previously
reported. The yen rose after a report that the Bank of Japan could raise the benchmark interest rate again this year, regardless of domestic political instability. BOJ officials are still assessing the economic impact of US tariffs both at home and abroad
yet see tightening possible as economic conditions have developed in line with expectations. US$ Index +0.03%, GBPUSD +0.1%, EURUSD -0.15%, USDJPY -0.5%, AUDUSD +0.3%, NZDUSD +0.2%, USDCHF +0.15%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK +0.15%, USDNOK -0.15%.

 

 

Bitcoin +0.7%, Ethereum +1.4%  

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Charles River (CRL) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $195
    • Dick’s Sporting (DKS) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $280
    • Femsa (FEMSAUBD MM) ADRs Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $97
    • Hyatt (H) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $167
    • Iqvia (IQV) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $225
    • Kingsoft Cloud (KC) ADRs Raised to Buy at BofA
    • Remitly (RELY) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $25
    • Roblox (RBLX) Raised to Neutral at Arete; PT $116
    • Sealed Air (SEE) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $36
    • Thomson Reuters (TRI CN) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT C$292.52
  • Downgrades
    • BXP (BXP) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $76
    • Icon (ICLR) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $175
    • Lululemon (LULU) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • Park Hotels (PK) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $12
    • Pinnacle West Capital (PNW) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities
    • Seacor Marine (SMHI) Cut to Neutral at Clarksons; PT $7
    • TaskUS (TASK) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $16.50
    • TKO (TKO) Cut to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
  • Initiations
    • Acadia Realty (AKR) Rated New Neutral at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $21
    • American Public (APEI) Rated New Buy at DA Davidson; PT $40
    • Badger Meter (BMI) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $230
    • Blaize Holdings (BZAI) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $9
    • Brixmor Property (BRX) Rated New Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $32
    • Curbline Properties (CURB) Rated New Neutral at Ladenburg Thalmann
    • Darling Ingredients (DAR) Rated New Buy at Baptista Research; PT $45
    • Dexterra Group (DXT CN) Reinstated Sector Perform at Scotiabank
    • Federal Realty (FRT) Rated New Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $115
    • Gartner (IT) Reinstated Sector Perform at RBC; PT $263
    • I-Mab (IMAB) ADRs Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $7
    • Kimco Realty (KIM) Rated New Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $27
    • Kite Realty (KRG) Rated New Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $30
    • Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $285
    • Metsera (MTSR) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $77
    • Monopar (MNPR) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $87
    • Natural Gas Services (NGS) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $36
    • Palvella Therapeutics In (PVLA) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer
    • PepGen (PEPG) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $6
    • Phillips Edison (PECO) Rated New Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $40
    • Regency Centers (REG) Rated New Neutral at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $76
    • Reliance (RS) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $350
    • Rithm Property Trust Inc (RPT) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets
    • Sionna Therapeutics (SION) Rated New Buy at Jones; PT $46
    • SITE Centers (SITC) Rated New Neutral at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $10
    • Stellantis (STLA) Reinstated Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $10.10
    • Urban Edge (UE) Rated New Neutral at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $23
    • USA Compression Partners (USAC) Rated New Hold at Texas Capital; PT $23

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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