Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on September 18, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA: 8:30ET Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook: 9:30ET Trump, Starmer to
hold joint press conference; 10:00ET Leading Index; 1:00ET US to sell $19 billion 10-year TIPS reopening; 4:00ET TIC Flows

Highlights and News:  

  • Bank of England leaves rates unchanged, as expected
  • Big US banks lower prime lending rates to 7.25% from 7.50%
  • Nvidia to Buy $5 Billion Intel Stake in Chip Alliance
  • STARMER: TRUMP AND I WILL SIGN TECH PROSPERITY DEAL
  • CHINA DROPS GOOGLE ANTITRUST PROBE DURING US TRADE TALKS: FT
  • Meta unveiled its $799 Ray-Ban Display smart glasses with built-in screen
  • Cal Raleigh owns the single-season home run record (56) for a switch hitter, passing Mickey Mantle

 

Global stocks edged higher after the US Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut of the year. The Bank of England held its main interest rate at 4% as inflation
in the UK remains almost double its target of 2%. BoE’s Gov. Bailey said, “We’re not out of the woods yet, so any future rate cuts will need to be made gradually and carefully.”  Earlier, Norway’s central bank delivered its second reduction of borrowing costs
this year but signaled that it may be slow to cut them further amid stubborn inflation. Trump’s UK visit turns to diplomatic talks with PM Keir Starmer, which are expected to focus on trade and the war in Ukraine. There will be a joint press conference, at
which some tech investments may be announced. Brazil’s central bank left its key rate unchanged at 15%, as expected. Taiwan’s central bank kept is key rate unchanged at 2%, also as expected.

 

EQUITIES:   

US equity futures rallied, led by small caps, after the Fed’s move was seen as a sign that policymakers will continue to support the labor market, with traders betting the Fed will keep
tilting toward the jobs side of its mandate. Rate-sensitive stocks were among the biggest gainers in early trading, with Nvidia and Tesla leading the tech giants. Nvidia agreed to invest $5 billion in Intel and said the two will co-develop chips for PCs and
data centers. Intel’s shares surged by as much as 26% in pre-market trading. Meta Platforms held discussions in recent months with a number of media companies, including Axel Springer, Fox Corp. and News Corp, about licensing their articles for use in its
artificial-intelligence tools. US government shutdown risks are rising, with Democrats demanding health care policy changes that House Speaker Mike Johnson said have “zero” chance of becoming law.

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P +0.75%, Nasdaq +1.1%, Russell 2000 +1.2%, DJI +0.5%

In pre-market trading, 89bio (ETNB) surges 83% after Roche said it will acquire the biopharmaceutical company for up to $3.5 billion. Cracker Barrel (CBRL) falls 8%
after its sales guidance missed expectations. CrowdStrike (CRWD) rises 4% in the wake of an investor briefing where the software company discussed its AI strategy and gave a preliminary FY27 outlook that analysts see as strong. Darden Restaurants (DRI) falls
6% after adjusted earnings per share missed expectations. FactSet (FDS) slips 3% after the financial data provider forecast adjusted earnings per share for 2026, guidance that missed. GE Healthcare Technologies (GEHC) ticks 1.7% higher as the company is exploring
options including the sale of a stake in its China unit. Intel (INTC) climbs 28% after Nvidia agreed to invest $5 billion in the company and said the two will codevelop chips for PCs and data centers. IonQ (IONQ) gains 4% after the company signed a
MOU with the US Department of Energy to advance the development and deployment of quantum technologies in space. Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) falls 10% after the drone technology company launched a secondary offering.

European gauges are higher, led by a surge in technology stocks after the US Federal Reserve lowered borrowing costs for the first time since December. Among individual
stocks, professional services firm Wolters Kluwer NV climbed 5.8% after accelerating its buyback program. Novo Nordisk rose 6% after data showed an experimental Wegovy pill showed a 16.6% weight-loss in a late-stage study. SIG Group slid 20% and triggered
a trading halt after the Swiss packaging group issued a profit warning for 2025 and suspended its cash dividend. Britain’s Next fell over 5% after the fashion retailer said it expects UK sales growth to slow in the second half of the year. Continental fell
20%, as the tire maker spun off auto supplier Aumovio. Stoxx 600 +0.8%, DAX +1.2%, CAC +1.1%, FTSE 100 +0.25%. Tech +3.9%, Luxury +2%, Banks +1.5%, Autos +1.4%. Utilities -0.7%, Telecom -0.4%.

Shares in Asia were mixed to lower, weighed by late losses in Chinese shares,  with analysts pointing to profit taking after the recent rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific
Index dropped 0.4%, snapping a 10-day winning streak. Chinese tech giants Tencent and Alibaba were among the main drags on the gauge. Equities also fell in New Zealand after the country’s economy shrank more than expected in the second quarter. Australian
energy firm Santos also posted steep losses after a third attempted sale faltered. South Korea outperformed as chipmakers got a boost from expectations for earnings to beat estimates amid an environment of lower borrowing costs. Tech stocks also rose in Japan
on continued interest in artificial intelligence. Chinese semiconductor makers rose after China’s ban on importing a Nvidia chip, a move that may boost the outlook for local competitors. Kospi +1.4%, Taiwan +1.3%, Nikkei 225 +1.1%, Topix +0.4%, Sensex +0.4%,
Philippines +0.4%. Indonesia -0.2%, Vietnam -0.3%, Thailand -0.7%, ASX 200 -0.8%, New Zealand -0.9%, Hang Seng Tech -1%, CSI 300 -1.2%, Hang Seng Index -1.3%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold gains accumulated during Asia session and European morning, erasing Wednesday’s losses that followed Fed Chair Powell’s post-FOMC comments advocating
a cautious approach to further easing. Focal points of US session include weekly jobless claims data and a 10-year TIPS reopening. 10-year yield slips two basis points to 4.065% with the curve a bit steeper. UK gilts had a muted initial reaction to Bank of
England voted 7-2 to keep policy rate at 4% as expected. The BOE said it will slow the pace of its gilt sales to £70 billion in the year starting in October and skew them away from longer-dated debt to help limit the impact of QT on the bond market. Treasury
auctions resume with $19 billion 10-year TIPS reopening.

 

METALS: 

Gold steadied after whipsawing on Wednesday when the Federal Reserve delivered its first interest-rate cut of 2025. Traders are cautious amid the central bank’s guarded
optimism regarding further rate cuts. After initially climbing following the Fed’s rate announcement, gold ended the day down 0.8% as traders discerned that the central bank’s tone on future policy decisions was less dovish than expected. Spot gold +0.2%,
Silver +0.4%, Copper futures -0.4%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices held steady after the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point and indicated it will steadily lower borrowing costs over
the rest of the year in response to weakness in the jobs market. Lower borrowing costs are expected to boost oil demand, analysts said. The amount of oil burned to generate electricity in the Middle East and North Africa is set to shrink sharply, freeing up
more Saudi and Iraqi crude for export, according to the International Energy Agency. Even as electricity demand in the MENA region is set to surge 50% by 2035, the IEA sees oil’s share in the power mix falling to just 5%, from about 20% currently.  California’s
energy regulator warned that looming gasoline shortfalls may lead to price spikes at the pump. WTI +0.5%, Brent +0.4%, US Nat Gas -0.4%, RBOB -0.1%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar rallied by 0.4% during the Asia session, yet pared most of its advance as hedge funds stepped in to fade the rebound. Sterling eased
after the BOE rate decision. Kiwi dollar plunges and New Zealand’s 2-year yield drops more than 10 bps after an ugly GDP miss boosts RBNZ easing prospects. New Zealand’s economy shrank 0.9% in the second quarter. Aussie drifts lower following a soft employment
report. The yen slipped while the Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Friday. US$ Index +0.15%, GBPUSD -0.05%, EURUSD +0.1%, USDJPY +0.25%, AUDUSD -0.05%, NZDUSD -1%, USDCHF +0.05%, USDCAD +0.05%, USDSEK +0.05%,
USDNOK -0.25%.

 

 

Bitcoin +1.3%, Ethereum +1.6%  

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Amicus (FOLD) Raised to Buy at Needham; PT $14
    • CSX (CSX) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $39
    • Hamilton Lane (HLNE) Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $162
    • High Liner Foods (HLF CN) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT C$20.50
    • National Bank Holdings (NBHC) Raised to Outperform at Hovde Group
    • Nike (NKE) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $90
    • Paramount Group (PGRE) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $6.60
    • PG&E (PCG) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $20
    • Slide Insurance (SLDE) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $19
    • StepStone (STEP) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $83
    • Vale (VALE3 BZ) ADRs Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $14
  • Downgrades
    • Innate Pharma (IPH FP) ADRs Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
      • ADRs Cut to Market Perform at Leerink; PT $2
    • Progressive (PGR) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $265
    • Tradeweb (TW) Cut to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $129
  • Initiations
    • Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $120
    • Adtran Holdings (ADTN) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $16
    • Advance Auto (AAP) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
    • AeroVironment (AVAV) Rated New Buy at BofA; PT $300
    • American Eagle (AEO) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
    • BeOne Medicines (6160 HK) ADRs Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $385
    • Blackstone (BX) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
    • Cardiol Therapeutics (CRDL CN) Rated New Buy at Brookline Capital
    • Context Therapeutics (CNTX) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $5
    • Coupang (CPNG) Rated New Buy at Arete; PT $40
    • Credo Technology (CRDO) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $70
    • Deckers Outdoor (DECK) Rated New Underperform at Bernstein; PT $100
    • Dollar General (DG) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $139
    • Dollar Tree (DLTR) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Dorman Products (DORM) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $180
    • DPM Metals Inc (DPM CN) Rated New Outperform at Macquarie; PT C$34
    • Five Below (FIVE) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $187
    • Grabagun Digital (PEW) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners
    • Ideaya Biosciences (IDYA) Reinstated Buy at Guggenheim; PT $50
    • Immatics (IMTX) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $16
    • O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Re-Initiated Outperform at Wolfe; PT $121
    • Pandora (PNDORA DC) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $26
    • Praxis Precision (PRAX) Rated New Buy at Jones; PT $83
    • Quinsam Opportunities I (VHI CN) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT C$15
    • ResMed (RMD) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $330
    • Stryker (SYK) Rated New Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $420
    • Target (TGT) Rated New Underperform at Wolfe; PT $80
    • Telix Pharma (TLX AU) ADRs Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $22
    • Tractor Supply (TSCO) Re-Initiated Outperform at Wolfe; PT $70
    • Walmart (WMT) Re-Initiated Outperform at Wolfe; PT $129
    • Waystar (WAY) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $48
    • Zimmer Biomet (ZBH) Rated New Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $130

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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