Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA: 8:30ET Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index; 9:45ET Fed’s Williams speaks; 10:00ET Fed’s Musalem
speaks; 12:00ET Fed’s Barkin speaks, Fed’s Hammack speaks, Fed’s Miran speaks

Highlights and News:  

• Trump administration is set to link acetaminophen to autism risk, according to WaPo
• Cryptocurrencies Sink as $1.5 Billion in Bullish Bets Wiped Out
• Oracle to Redo and Secure TikTok’s US Algorithm
• Super Typhoon Ragasa approaches Hong Kong
• India’s trade chief heads to the US today

Global stocks inched lower as uncertainty around President Trump’s visa policies dimmed sentiment. The Trump administration said on Friday it would ask companies
to pay $100,000 per year for H-1B worker visas. Many sectors, especially US technology, are heavily reliant on skilled workers from India and China and the announcement prompted them to warn visa holders to stay in the US or quickly return. The fee only affects
new visas, not renewals or current holders, the White House clarified. Polish and allied aircraft were scrambled early Saturday to secure Polish airspace following Russian airstrikes on western Ukraine near the Polish border. The deployment came after three
Russian military jets violated NATO Estonia’s airspace on Friday. In the Middle East, four Western nations recognized a Palestinian state, prompting a furious response from Israel.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures ease from all-time highs as traders search for new catalysts to drive markets at the start of a relatively quiet week on the event calendar. The week’s main economic
event is Friday’s inflation update, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures index expected to indicate that “core” PCE inflation slowed to 0.2% in August, while yearly increases held steady at 2.9%, above the Fed’s target. Traders will also parse remarks
from several Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday.  Kenvue extended losses in premarket trading, following a Washington Post report that the Trump administration plans to link the active ingredient in Tylenol to autism. Pfizer will buy obesity
startup Metsera for an enterprise value of about $4.9 billion as the drug giant looks to bolster its pipeline after the recent failure of its closely-watched weight-loss pill. Oracle will recreate and provide security for a new US version of TikTok’s algorithm
under a planned deal that gives ownership to a consortium of American investors.  

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.3%, Nasdaq -0.4%, Russell 2000 -0.2%, DJI -0.4%

In pre-market trading, Amer Sports (AS) falls 6% on news that Chinese authorities launched an investigation after a fireworks show in Tibet sponsored by Amer Sport’s
Arc’teryx sparked a backlash on social media because of concern about the effect on the environment. Anywhere Real Estate (HOUS) soars 46% on a pact to merge with Compass (COMP). Shares of Compass are down 12%. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks including Coinbase
(COIN -2.5%) are falling after traders saw more than $1.5 billion in bullish bets liquidated on Monday. ASML (ASML) ADRs are up 3% after the chip-equipment stock received a third analyst upgrade in a month, with Morgan Stanley seeing a potential cyclical recovery
on the horizon. Ionis (IONS) rises 2% after announcing that a study of zilganersen in children and adults with Alexander disease met its primary endpoint. MBX Biosciences (MBX) climbs 30% after the company provided topline results from its Phase 2 clinical
trial of once-weekly canvuparatide for patients with chronic hypoparathyroidism. Metsera (MTSR) is up 59% after Pfizer Inc. agreed to buy the obesity startup for an enterprise value of about $4.9 billion.

OKLO is up 667% from the April 4 low. Very overbought…

European gauges slipped, dragged by automakers’ profit warnings, while miners outperform. Luxury carmaker Porsche and its parent Volkswagen both cut their profit forecasts
after delaying the rollout of EV models due to weak demand. ASML shares rise as much as 3.7% after the chip-equipment stock received a third analyst upgrade in a month, with Morgan Stanley seeing a potential cyclical recovery on the horizon. Roche climbed
as much as 2.2% after the Swiss drugmaker said its experimental drug giredestrant helped patients with a form of advanced breast cancer live longer in an advanced trial. Fugro falls as much as 13% as the Dutch geological data specialist withdrew 2025 guidance.
OCI shares plunge as much as 19% after Degroof Petercam cut its price target following news Orascom Construction is considering acquiring the Amsterdam-listed provider of fertilizers and chemicals. Stoxx 600 -0.1%, DAX -0.6%, CAC -0.1%, FTSE 100 +0.1%. Autos
-2.5%, Banks -1.3%, Telecom -1%. Basic Resources +1.4%, Technology +0.9%.

Shares in Asia were mixed to higher, supported by regional tech shares and a rally in Japan, where easing concerns over the Bank of Japan’s unwinding of exchange-traded
funds boosted sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.2%, led by gains in TSMC. Samsung Electronics shares jumped more than 5% after reports it has won approval from Nvidia for the use of advanced memory chips. Asia-listed Apple suppliers saw their
shares rise after the latest iPhone release was met with high shopper turnout. Chinese hardware and chip stocks gain, led by Luxshare Precision, after a report from The Information said the company secured contracts to assemble an OpenAI device. Indian shipbuilding
companies advanced after the government grants infrastructure status to large ships. Taiwan +1.2%, Nikkei 225 +1%, Kospi +0.7%, CSI 300 +0.5%, ASX 200 +0.4%. Indonesia -0.15%, Sensex -0.55%, Hang Seng Index -0.75%, Thailand -0.8%, Philippines -0.8%, Vietnam
-1.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries steadied, with yields within a basis point of Friday’s close. European bonds outperform, led by Italy debt after Fitch upgraded the sovereign to BBB+ with
a stable outlook Friday citing increased confidence in the nation’s fiscal trajectory. Today’s session includes five Fed members scheduled to speak, while Treasury auctions resume Tuesday with a 2-year note sale. 10-year yields little changed around 4.12%;
2s10s ~flat; 5s30s +1bp.  Treasury auctions this week include $69 billion 2-year notes Tuesday, $70 billion 5-year notes Wednesday and $44 billion 7-year notes Thursday.

METALS: 

Gold hit a fresh record high as flows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds hit a three-year high, with investors betting that the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting
cycle has further to run. Spot gold trades above $3,725 an ounce, while silver rose to the highest since 2011. Copper nudges higher as traders assessed the impact on global supplies from an accident in Indonesia that left the world’s second-largest mine suspended
for two weeks. Spot gold +0.9%, Silver +1%, Copper futures +0.2%.

ENERGY:   

Oil slips, extending last week’s small loss as traders gauge the impact of the European Union’s latest moves on Russian supplies and strikes by Ukraine on the OPEC+
member’s energy infrastructure. The EU’s next round of sanctions against Russia will focus on oil industry entities in so-called third countries, affecting about a dozen Chinese and several Indian bodies. Trump on Saturday renewed his call for European countries
to stop buying oil from Russia, French President Emmanuel Macron said the EU’s remaining energy imports from the nation were “very marginal.”  WTI -0.7%, Brent -0.7%, US Nat Gas -0.5%, RBOB -0.6%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar slips after a three-day gain, as traders looked ahead to a slew of speeches from Federal Reserve officials throughout the week that
could provide further clues to the US rate outlook. Aussie$ inches higher after Reserve Bank of Governor Michele Bullock said the central bank has “made really good progress” on inflation. The Swedish crown is lower before the central bank policy meeting on
Tuesday. Sterling edged up against the dollar as investors paused following Friday’s selloff driven by fiscal concerns. Analysts argued they no longer view UK monetary policy developments as a key driver of the pound in the coming weeks. US$ Index -0.2%, GBPUSD
+0.2%, EURUSD +0.3%, USDJPY -0.1%, AUDUSD +0.05%, NZDUSD +0.1%, USDCHF -0.3%, USDCAD +0.2%, USDSEK -0.4%, USDNOK -0.1%.

Bitcoin -2.3%, Ethereum -6.7%. Cryptocurrencies sink, with ether falling as much as 9% as nearly half a billion dollars of leveraged long positions in the second-largest
token were liquidated according to data from Coinglass. On Monday, more than 407,000 traders saw their positions liquidated over a 24-hour period, the Coinglass data showed. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Applied Materials (AMAT) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
• Barrick Mining (ABX CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank; PT C$51
• Brinker (EAT) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $175
• Cameco (CCO CN) Raised to Buy at President Capital Management
• Crown Castle (CCI) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $114
• FactSet (FDS) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $425
• Helmerich & Payne (HP) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $25
• Lam Research (LRCX) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $125
• Paycom Software (PAYC) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $258
• Repligen (RGEN) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $155
• Sarepta (SRPT) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $50
• Steven Madden (SHOO) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $40
• Xcel Energy (XEL) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $80
• Downgrades
• Crocs (CROX) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $75
• Greenfire Resources (GFR) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $5.80
• HUTCHMED China (13 HK) ADRs Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley
• Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Cut to Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $24
• KLA Corp (KLAC) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $1,093
• Kosmos Energy (KOS) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $2
• Lennar (LEN) Cut to Underperform at Raymond James
• Paramount Group (PGRE) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $6.60
• Initiations
• Celcuity (CELC) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $110
• Clearwater Paper (CLW) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $30
• Constellation Energy (CEG) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
• CytomX (CTMX) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $6
• Extendicare (EXE CN) Reinstated Outperform at CIBC; PT C$18
• GATX (GATX) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $201
• Grid Dynamics (GDYN) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $11
• Guardant Health (GH) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $72
• Hagerty (HGTY) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $13
• Immunome (IMNM) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $26
• Iron Mountain (IRM) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $120
• Kering (KER FP) ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $36
• Kirby (KEX) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $91
• Millrose Properties (MRP) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets
• Natera (NTRA) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $175
• NRG Energy (NRG) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $212
• Rein Therapeutics Inc (RNTX) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $10
• Ryder (R) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $217
• Savaria (SIS CN) Rated New Buy at Paradigm Capital; PT C$25
• Talen Energy (TLN) Rated New Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $418
• Unisys (UIS) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $4
• Vistra Corp (VST) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $256
• Westinghouse Air Brake (WAB) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $225

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke