Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA: 8:30ET Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity, Current Account Balance,
Fed’s Goolsbee speaks; 9:00ET Fed’s Bowman speaks; 9:45ET S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, S&P Global US Services PMI; 10:00ET Fed’s Bostic speaks, Richmond Fed Manufact. Index,
Richmond Fed Business Conditions; 12:35ET Fed’s Powell speaks; 1:00ET 2-Year Note Auction; 3:30ET Fed’s Goolsbee speaks

Highlights and News:  

• Today’s main event is Fed Chair Powell’s economic outlook
• Venezuelan military trains civilians amid US tensions
• Hong Kong shuts down ahead of world’s biggest typhoon this year
• China is pushing to become custodian of foreign sovereign gold reserves
• Trump Signs Order Designating Antifa as Domestic Terrorist Group

Global stocks steadied while investors are awaiting fresh Fed signals ahead of a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell as earnings season looms as the next big test for
stocks. Euro zone economic growth remains resilient, bolstered by Germany’s expansive budget measures that support positive sentiment.  Germany’s PMI bounced to a 16-month high of 52.4, beating expectations for a modest lift to 50.6. In France, activity contracted
for a 13th month and at the fastest pace since April. UK PMIs missed across the board. China is on track for a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus despite US tariffs, with exports of cheap goods to India, Africa, and Southeast Asia surging. Indian purchases
hit an all-time high in August, shipments to Africa are on track for an annual record and sales to Southeast Asia have exceeded their pandemic-era peak. Hong Kong shut down ahead of Super Typhoon Ragasa, with authorities urging people to stay at home, while
most passenger flights were due to be suspended until Thursday.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are little changed after a tech-driven rally drove Wall Street to record closing highs for the third straight session, while investors awaited Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s
remarks on the economy. Although AI companies have been quick to announce investment plans, they’ve been slower to demonstrate how they’ll generate enough revenue to cover those costs. According to consulting firm Bain & Co., firms will require $2 trillion
to fund computing power by 2030, but their revenue is projected to be $800 billion less than needed. The US-China dispute over Beijing’s control of rare earth supplies has yet to be resolved, the head of a US congressional delegation said after meeting Chinese
officials. Kenvue shares are rebounding in premarket trading after scientists and analysts said Trump’s Tylenol claims are misleading. Boeing rose premarket after US Ambassador David Perdue said a “huge” order from China is close. The Secret Service dismantled
a network of more than 300 SIM servers and 100,000 SIM cards in the New York-area that were capable of crippling telecom systems.  

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.03%, Nasdaq -0.01%, Russell 2000 +0.15%, DJI +0.1%

In pre-market trading, ACM Research (ACMR) gains 5% as the stock is to replace WK Kellogg Co. in the S&P SmallCap 600 prior to the opening of trading on Sept. 26. AutoZone
(AZO) slips 2% after posting fourth-quarter results. Boeing (BA) is up 2% after Uzbekistan Airways announced an order for as many as 22 of the US plane maker’s 787 Dreamliner jets. CoreWeave (CRWV) climbs 2% after Melius Research upgraded the cloud-computing
provider to buy. Firefly Aerospace (FLY) falls 10% after the space and defense technology company reported revenue for the second quarter that missed. Kenvue (KVUE) gains 4% as President Donald Trump’s call for pregnant women to avoid Tylenol draws sharp criticism
from researchers. Plug Power (PLUG), the hydrogen technology provider, rose 11% after jumping nearly 22% on Monday. The stock has closed higher for 10 consecutive sessions, its longest winning streak on record. Vistra Corp. (VST) slips 2% after the power producer
was downgraded at Jefferies. Micron (MU) is up 1% ahead of its of fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report after the bell.

Broadcom has been underperforming SMH since 9/11; testing key short term support at the 50dma in the pair.

European gauges erase some of their early gains made after data showed the euro area’s private sector expanded at the fastest pace in 16 months. The Stoxx 600 holds
small gains as the retail sector outperforms, and wind energy companies rally. Orsted A/S shares surged after a US judge ruled construction can continue on a nearly completed wind farm off the coast of Rhode Island, quashing an effort by the Trump administration
to halt the project. Home-improvement group Kingfisher Plc surged 15% after raising its full-year guidance.  Sentiment was also boosted by a mega-deal between Nvidia and OpenAI and positive data on iPhone demand. ASM International shares fall as much as 6.4%
after the Dutch chip equipment maker reduced its outlook for second half of the year. Stoxx 600 +0.3%, DAX +0.3%, CAC +0.7%, FTSE 100 ~flat. Luxury +1.8%, Retail +1.6%, Travel & Leisure +1.3%. Healthcare -0.8%, Aero & Defense -0.2%. 

Shares in Asia were mixed, with Japan closed for holiday and Hong Kong bracing for major disruptions from an approaching super typhoon. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index
rose 0.1%, with TSMC and Samsung Electronics providing the biggest boost following Nvidia’s announcement of as much as $100 billion investment in OpenAI to build data centers. Benchmarks in Hong Kong and mainland China fell more than 1%, before paring losses,
as a months-long rally took a breather. Indonesia secured a trade deal with the EU that will eliminate most tariffs after almost a decade of negotiations. Shares of Korean drugmakers involved in treatments for weight loss advanced as Pfizer’s deal to buy Metsera
fuels bets that there could be more such deals in the sector. Taiwan +1.4%, Indonesia +1.1%, Kospi +0.5%, ASX 200 +0.4%, Vietnam +0.05%. CSI 300 -0.05%, Sensex -0.1%, Hang Seng Index -0.7%, Thailand -0.7%, Hang Seng Tech -1.4%, Philippines -1.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries see small gains across the curve with yields lower by 1bp to 2bp on the day. 10-year yield is about 2bps lower while intermediates outperform with the
curve mixed. 2s10s -1bp; 5s30s +1.5bp. Treasury auctions $69 billion 2-year notes, with $70 billion 5-year notes Wednesday and $44 billion 7-year notes Thursday also due this week. There is a slew of fed speakers today including Fed Chair Powell at 12:35ET.

METALS: 

Gold extended its unprecedented rally on efforts by China to bolster its role in global bullion markets. Bloomberg reported that the People’s Bank of China is looking
to be a custodian of sovereign reserves, courting friendly countries to buy bullion and store it within its borders. Investors are rushing to gold as the prospect of rapid US interest rate cuts enhances the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets. Attention
shifts to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who will deliver a speech this afternoon. Spot gold +0.8%, Silver +0.5%, Copper futures -0.05%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices bounced back amid persistent geopolitical risks but remains near multi-week lows. Traders are weighing the global supply outlook after Iraq and Kurdish
regional governments reached a preliminary agreement to restart an oil pipeline. The anticipated increase in supply from Iraq, which is reportedly planning to resume crude exports from its Kurdistan region, could weigh on prices. The move could add about 230,000
barrels per day to global markets after a two-year halt. WTI +1.2%, Brent +1%, US Nat Gas -0.8%, RBOB +0.8%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is little changed as investors awaited speeches by more Fed officials to better gauge the central bank’s policy path. The euro fluctuated
after data showed euro area’s private sector expanded at the quickest pace in 16 months as outperformance in German services compensated for a slump in France. Sweden’s crown gained after the central bank cut interest rates to 1.75% and said rates were expected
to remain on hold for some time. Sterling came under renewed pressure and fell to its lowest since July versus the euro after data showed demand for British exports declined at the fastest pace since April. US$ Index -0.02%, GBPUSD +0.01%, EURUSD -0.05%, USDJPY
+0.01%, AUDUSD +0.1%, NZDUSD -0.05%, USDCHF -0.05%, USDCAD +0.05%, USDSEK -0.4%, USDNOK -0.3%.

Bitcoin +0.1%, Ethereum +0.25%.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Alvotech (ALVO) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $14
• Antero Resources (AR) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $39
• Anywhere Real Estate (HOUS) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $11
• CoreWeave (CRWV) Raised to Buy at Melius; PT $165
• Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $170
• Expeditors (EXPD) Raised to Hold at Freedom Finance; PT $119
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Raised to Buy at Guggenheim; PT $206
• Nvidia (NVDA) Raised to Strong Buy at CFRA; PT $225
• Omnicom (OMC) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $91
• Onto Innovation (ONTO) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $170
• Primerica (PRI) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $318
• United Rentals (URI) Raised to Outperform at Bernstein; PT $1,128
• Downgrades
• Americold Realty Trust (COLD) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $15
• CyberArk (CYBR) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• Lam Research (LRCX) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Lululemon (LULU) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $195
• Oklo (OKLO) Cut to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
• Pros Holdings (PRO) Cut to Hold at Needham
• Vistra Corp (VST) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $230
• Initiations
• Alexandria Real Estate (ARE) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $100
• Arizona Sonoran Copper (ASCU CN) Rated New Buy at Desjardins; PT C$5
• Atlassian (TEAM) Rated New Neutral at BofA; PT $200
• AvePoint (AVPT) Rated New Buy at DA Davidson; PT $20
• BP (BP/ LN) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $37.80
• Cardinal Energy (CJ CN) Reinstated Market Perform at Raymond James
• Eni (ENI IM) ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $31.90
• Equinor (EQNR NO) ADRs Rated New Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $23.20
• Groupe Dynamite (GRGD CN) Rated New Outperform at CIBC; PT C$65
• GSR III Acquisition (GSRT) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners
• iRhythm (IRTC) Rated New Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $185
• Mama’s Creations Inc (MAMA) Rated New Buy at DA Davidson; PT $18
• MP Materials (MP) Rated New Outperform at Daiwa; PT $80
• Neste (NESTE FH) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $10
• Shell (SHEL LN) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $75.40
• Sila Realty Trust (SILA) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $27
• TotalEnergies (TTE FP) ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $62.50

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke