Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA: 8:15ET Fed’s Miran speaks; 8:20ET Fed’s Goolsbee speaks; 8:30ET GDP,
Personal Consumption, Core PCE Price Index, Advance Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories, Durable Goods Orders, Cap Goods Orders, Jobless Claims; 9:00ET Fed’s Schmid speaks,
Fed’s Williams speaks; 10:00ET Fed’s Bowman speaks,
Existing Home Sales; 11:00ETKansas City Fed Manf. Activity: 1:00ET 7-Year Note Auction, Fed’s Barr speaks; 1:40ET Fed’s Logan speaks; 3:30ET Fed’s Daly speaks

Highlights and News:  

• Trump will sign the TikTok deal today – White House Source
• White House Orders Agencies To Prepare Mass Layoff Plans In Event Of Shutdown
• US envoy Steve Witkoff predicts a breakthrough in the Israel-Hamas conflict in the coming days
• Fed’s Miran Says US Economy’s Vulnerability Calls for Rapid Cuts
• US deployed four F-16 fighter jets, a surveillance aircraft, and four tankers to intercept Russian bombers that flew into Alaska’s air defense zone
• Aaron Judge hit his 50th home run for a fourth season last night, matching the major league record held by Babe Ruth, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa

Global stocks eased as the Trump administration launched investigations into imports of robotics, industrial machinery and medical devices, setting the stage for
more tariffs. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting key US inflation data due Friday for clues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. South Korea’s investments in the US will remain in limbo until visa issues are resolved, PM Kim Min-seok said. His office later
clarified that his remarks are unrelated to the $350 billion investment scheme under discussion. Denmark suffered a second drone attack this week as authorities probe potential Russian involvement in the incidents and discuss how to involve NATO allies. The
SNB kept borrowing costs unchanged, at zero, halting its easing cycle. The US deployed four F-16 fighter jets, a surveillance aircraft, and four tankers to intercept Russian bombers and fighter jets that flew into Alaska’s air defense identification zone,
the North American Aerospace Defense Command says. There have been at least nine such instances this year according to CNN.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures move lower as traders waited for new drivers to guide the market’s next move in what has been an unusually strong September for markets. Headlines on potential mass
firings during a possible government shutdown, the expansion of tariffs to more sectors and mixed messages from Fed speakers are creating a cautious tone. Investors will monitor commentary from a slate of Fed officials today to gauge the central bank’s shifting
policy perspective. In corporate news, HSBC said it’s achieved a world-first breakthrough in deploying quantum computing in financial markets, using IBM’s Heron quantum processor to improve bond price predictions. Disney is preparing for a legal fight in case
the Trump administration retaliates against the company for putting Jimmy Kimmel back on the air. Intel extended gains in the premarket after approaching Apple and others to secure an investment. Accenture earnings will be closely watched for insights, as
the first IT services firm to report since the recent controversy over H-1B visa fees earlier this week. US-listed shares of Lithium Americas climbed about 30%, after nearly doubling in the previous session, following a Reuters report that the Trump administration
is seeking a stake in the miner.

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P -0.35%, Nasdaq -0.5%, Russell 2000 -0.6%, DJI -0.1%

In pre-market trading, Cipher Mining (CIFR) rises 9% as Google will receive warrants to buy about 24 million shares of the company’s stock as part of Cipher’s 10-year
AI hosting agreement with Fluidstack. Immuneering Corp. (IMRX) gains 24% after the biotech firm reported 86% overall survival at nine months in first-line pancreatic cancer patients treated with atebimetinib in combination with mGnP. Jabil (JBL) climbs 2%
after the manufacturing services company posted net revenue for the fourth quarter that beat. Lithium Americas (LAC) jumps 16% after nearly doubling on Wednesday, following reports the Trump administration is pursuing a stake in the company. Oracle (ORCL)
falls 2% as Rothschild & Co Redburn initiates coverage of the software giant with a sell rating, saying the market is materially overestimating the value of the firm’s cloud revenues. Transocean (RIG) is down 14% after the company offered 125 million shares.
UniQure (QURE) rises 9%, extending gains for a second day. Guggenheim boosted its price target on the drug developer to a Street-high. 

European gauges are broadly lower as the US launches investigations into imports of robotics, industrial machinery and medical devices.  European car makers gain after
figures showed industry sales edged up again in August. European medical products and equipment stocks drop after the Trump administration launched an investigation into imports, setting the stage for fresh tariffs. Among individual names, Hennes & Mauritz
AB soared as much as 12% after the Swedish fashion retailer’s profit topped expectations.  SSP Group shares rise as much as 11% after the Financial Times reported activist hedge fund Irenic Capital Management is encouraging private equity groups to launch
a takeover. Pepco jumps as much as 14% after the discount retailer reported acceleration of like-for-like sales, amid a positive turnaround in the Polish market, and announced a share buyback. SAP fell after it was hit by a EU antitrust probe over whether
it distorted competition for services related to a management program it sells. Stoxx 600 -0.7%, DAX -1%, CAC -0.7%, FTSE 100 -0.3%. Construction -2%, Financial Services -1.5%, Healthcare -1%. Basic Resources +0.8%, Retail +0.6%.

Shares in Asia were mixed again, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index little changed. Equity benchmarks rose in mainland China, while they declined in Taiwan, Singapore
and India. Materials shares climbed, tracking copper after Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure on contracted supplies from a mine in Indonesia following an accident. The AI theme has provided a fresh tailwind for China’s stock rally ahead of upcoming Golden
Week holidays. Chinese semiconductor stocks extended its rally as sentiment was boosted by a report that a local major memory chipmaker is developing an advanced chip packaging technology for high-bandwidth memory. Hang Seng Tech +0.9%, Thailand +0.8%, CSI
300 +0.6%, Vietnam +0.5%, Topix +0.5%, ASX 200 +0.1%. Kospi -0.03%, Hang Seng Index -0.1%, Singapore -0.4%, Taiwan -0.7%, Sensex -0.7%, Indonesia -1.1%, Philippines -1.1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields are modestly higher across the curve with 10-year yield +1bp at 4.155% and the curve roughly flat. Treasury auctions conclude with $44 billion 7-year
note sale, follows solid 2- and 5-year note auctions seen so far this week. More rate cuts are probably needed, but the Fed should move with caution, SF President Mary Daly said. US session focus includes weekly jobless claims. Fed Governor Stephen Miran said
the US central bank risks damage to the economy by not moving rapidly to lower interest rates. GDP data and a packed Fed speaker slate. 

METALS: 

Gold is higher, holding just below an all-time high ahead of Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation
measure.  For now, the second-quarter US gross domestic product report will come under the spotlight this morning. Inflows into global gold ETFs surged to a record $10.5 billion so far in September. Silver rose above $45 an ounce for the first time in 14 years,
bolstered by a risk-off mood in equity markets and ongoing worries about the trajectory of the US economy. Copper’s rally advanced as traders weighed the impact of supply losses from Freeport-McMoRan’s huge Grasberg mine. Spot gold +0.4%, Silver +2%, Copper
futures +0.8%.

ENERGY:   

Crude oil prices dipped ahead of expected weakness in winter demand and a bearish outlook on supply fundamentals. Iraq expects oil exports from its Kurdistan region
to resume as soon as this week, after reaching a deal with producers. This comes after eight oil firms reached a deal on Wednesday with Iraq’s federal and Kurdish regional governments to resume exports. Two consecutive down days for U.S. stocks are putting
further pressure on oil prices, Reuters reported, citing analysts. WTI -0.4%, Brent -0.25%, US Nat Gas +1.5%, RBOB -0.4%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar held in tight ranges against its peers as traders shifted focus to US data and a slew of Fed speakers today. Month-end flows are also
in focus while volumes remain below recent averages. The Swiss franc was little changed after the Swiss National Bank held its benchmark rate at zero, judging the impact of US tariffs to be containable for now. President Martin Schlegel said the 39% levy imposed
by Trump — the highest for any advanced economy — will cause pain but the fallout isn’t yet widespread enough to justify a cut.  The yen inched higher after minutes of the Bank of Japan’s July policy meeting showed some board members called for resuming interest
rate hikes. US$ Index +0.01%, GBPUSD -0.2%, EURUSD -0.01%, USDJPY -0.05%, AUDUSD +0.02%, NZDUSD -0.05%, USDCHF +0.1%, USDCAD -0.03%, USDSEK +0.1%, USDNOK +0.1%.

Bitcoin -1.8%, Ethereum -3.9%. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies fell as the week neared a potentially volatile close, with $22 billion in large options expiries looming.
Volatility could intensify into the weekend, with more than $17 billion in notional open interest tied to Bitcoin and about $5.3 billion for Ether set to expire on Friday.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Adient (ADNT) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo
• Amentum Holdings (AMTM) Raised to Overweight at Cantor; PT $35
• Ameresco (AMRC) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $39
• Arista Networks (ANET) Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $172
• Baidu (BIDU) ADRs Raised to Buy at DBS Bank; PT $177
• Boeing (BA) Raised to Buy at President Capital Management; PT $256
• Chewy (CHWY) Raised to Buy at MoffettNathanson LLC; PT $48
• CME Group (CME) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $300
• CrowdStrike (CRWD) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $600
• CSX (CSX) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $40
• Freeport (FCX) Raised to Outperform at Bernstein; PT $48.50
• Guardant Health (GH) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $75
• Intel (INTC) Raised to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
• Kodiak Sciences (KOD) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $17
• Olin (OLN) Raised to Buy at Fermium Research; PT $27
• Slide Insurance (SLDE) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $18
• United Natural (UNFI) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $36
• Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Raised to Outperform at Leerink; PT $456
• Downgrades
• Freeport (FCX) Cut to Neutral at Clarksons; PT $42
• Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $45
• Integral Ad Science (IAS) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Cut to Hold at Loop Capital; PT $10.30
• Lithium Americas (LAC CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$6.95
• Lululemon (LULU) Cut to Hold at Needham
• Qualcomm (QCOM) Cut to Hold at Aletheia Capital
• TotalEnergies (TTE FP) ADRs Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT $64
• Uranium Energy (UEC) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $14
• Wendy’s (WEN) Cut to Sell at Northcoast
• Initiations
• Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital
• Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital
• Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $60
• Atlantic Union (AUB) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $46
• Bank OZK (OZK) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $67
• Becton Dickinson (BDX) Reinstated Sector Perform at RBC; PT $211
• Biogen (BIIB) Reinstated Buy at Jefferies; PT $190
• Blackstone Sec Lending (BXSL) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $32
• BNY Mellon (BK) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen
• Coastal Finl (CCB) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $140
• Columbia Banking (COLB) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT $28
• Comerica (CMA) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT $75
• Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT $63
• Contineum Therapeutics (CTNM) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $20
• Core Natural Resources (CNR) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $105
• Cullen/Frost (CFR) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $154
• Customers Bancorp (CUBI) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $89
• East West Bancorp (EWBC) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $139
• Eastern Bankshares (EBC) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $23
• First Hawaiian (FHB) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT $27
• First Horizon (FHN) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT $25
• Flagstar Financial (FLG) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT $14
• Frontier Airlines (ULCC) Rated New Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
• GFL Environmental (GFL CN) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Hallador Energy (HNRG) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $23
• Levi Strauss (LEVI) Rated New Strong Buy at Needham; PT $28
• Live Oak Banc (LOB) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $50
• Moncler (MONC IM) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $77
• MVB Financial (MVBF) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $35
• Northern Trust (NTRS) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen
• Oklo (OKLO) Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $117
• Old National (ONB) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT $25
• Oracle (ORCL) Rated New Sell at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $175.14
• Peabody Energy (BTU) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $27
• Pinnacle Financial (PNFP) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $122
• Prada (1913 HK) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $15
• Prosperity Banc (PB) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $79
• Ramaco (METC) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $42
• Renasant (RNST) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $45
• SouthState Bank (SSB) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $127
• State Street (STT) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen
• Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) Rated New Hold at Texas Capital; PT $348
• Texas Capital (TCBI) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT $98
• Tutor Perini (TPC) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $85
• Tyson (TSN) Rated New Neutral at Grupo Santander; PT $66
• UMB Financial (UMBF) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $151
• Valley National (VLY) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $14
• Warrior Met (HCC) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $75
• Webster Financial (WBS) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $78
• Webull (BULL) Rated New Buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc; PT $19
• Western Alliance (WAL) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $118
• Wintrust Financial (WTFC) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $166
• WSFS Financial (WSFS) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $67
• Zions (ZION) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT $64

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke