Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on October 1, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA: 8:15ET ADP Employment Change; 9:45ET S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI; 10:00ET ISM Manufacturing,
ISM Prices Paid, ISM New Orders, ISM Employment, Construction Spending; 12:15ET Fed’s Barkin speaks; 5:00ET Fed’s Goolsbee speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • ADP US SEPT. PRIVATE EMPLOYMENT FALLS 32,000; EST. +51K; The number of jobs created in August was revised from 54,000 to -3,000
  • Nasdaq recorded biggest Q3 gain since 2010
  • Futures Fall as US Government Shutdown Starts
  • SCHUMER, JEFFRIES: DEMOCRATS READY TO FIND A BIPARTISAN PATH
  • Fed’s Logan Urges Caution Over More Rate Cuts
  • White House is close to a deal with Harvard
  • AMAZON LAUNCHES PRIVATE LABEL FOOD BRAND AMAZON GROCERY

 

Global stocks ease as the US government’s partial shutdown and fresh tariff announcements heightened fears of trade disruptions, inflation, and delayed economic data.
Markets were also closely monitoring US officials’ diverging views on monetary policy. Euro-area inflation accelerated in September, as expected, with consumer prices rising 2.2% from a year ago due to energy base effects and services costs. Euro zone manufacturing
slipped back into contraction as new orders fell at their fastest rate in six months, with export markets acting as a particular drag. The US wants to repeal a major Basel rule to treat the euro zone as a single domestic market when assessing banks’ cross-border
exposures, possibly teeing up a clash with Europe’s bank supervisors. Factory activity shrank in much of the world last month, private surveys showed, as signs of a slowdown in US growth and the anticipated impact of Trump’s tariffs added to pressure from
weak Chinese demand. Members of Hamas’s political wing met officials from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey in Doha to discuss a US peace plan for Gaza. Trump said Hamas has “about three or four days” for a response.  

 

EQUITIES: 

 

US equity futures slipped as the first government shutdown in nearly seven years got underway, with Republicans pushing for an unconditional funding extension and
Democrats making policy demands. There were no signs of a resolution forthcoming. With a temporary blackout in economic data at risk, today’s private-sector ADP payrolls data may have added significance. The Congressional Budget Office projects that approximately
750,000 federal workers will face furloughs, costing $400 million daily in lost wages. The Trump administration’s proposal to terminate federal employees could further increase unemployment claims, exacerbating an already vulnerable job market. Nasdaq futures
lead losses, with tech stocks among the biggest decliners in premarket trading. Nike rose more than 3% post-market as its turnaround efforts gained traction. The US will take a 5% stake in Lithium Americas and its Thacker Pass project, driving a surge in the
company’s shares during premarket trading. 

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.5%, Russell 2000 -0.3%, DJI -0.3%

In pre-market trading, AES Corp. (AES) rises 14% as BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners LP is in advanced talks to acquire the power company. Corteva (CTVA)
inches 1% higher after announcing plans to separate into two independent companies. Lithium Americas (LAC) rises 32% after Secretary of Energy Chris Wright told Bloomberg TV that the US government agreed to acquire a stake in the company. Marvell Technology
(MRVL) falls 2.5% after TD Cowen cut its recommendation on the chipmaker to hold from buy. Nike (NKE) climbs 3% after the sneaker retailer reported first-quarter revenue that beat. Sunrun Inc. (RUN) rises 5% after Jefferies raised its recommendation on the
solar energy company to buy. Veeco Instruments (VECO) rises 4% after announcing plans to merge with Axcelis Technologies (ACLS). Axcelis falls 1.7%.

European gauges are higher as a rush for the healthcare sector outweighs concerns about the economic impact of a US government shutdown. European drugmakers rise following
Pfizer’s drug-pricing agreement with President Trump, which JPMorgan analysts say could be a potential bellwether for the sector. Ambu shares advance as much as 11% after the Danish health-care equipment maker increased its five-year revenue target. Pharming
shares rise as much as 7.1% after the Dutch biopharmaceutical company said its supplemental new drug application to treat a rare primary immunodeficiency in children was granted priority review by the US FDA. In London, Greggs shares rallied as much as 13%
after the baker said that its cost inflation outlook has improved. European defense stocks are falling as EU leaders meet in Copenhagen to discuss how to deal with the threat posed by drone incursions into the bloc’s airspace. Stoxx 600 +0.5%, DAX +0.25%,
CAC +0.4%, FTSE 100 +0.6%. HealthCare +3.3%, Basic Resources +1.6%, Energy +1.1%. Aero & Defense -1.1%, Technology -0.5%.

Shares in Asia were mixed with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index little changed after capping its sixth-straight month of gains, the longest win streak in over seven years.
Gains in South Korea, India and Taiwan were overshadowed by declines in Japanese shares on concerns over the impact of a US government shutdown. Taiwan pushed back on a US request to move chip production stateside to cover half of America’s demand. Australian
shares fell for a second day after the Reserve Bank left its key interest rate unchanged.  Indian lenders advanced as India’s central bank announced a raft of measures to boost bank lending to businesses. Japanese banking shares declined over concerns a US
government shutdown may send ripples through funding conditions globally. Hong Kong and mainland China markets are closed for holidays. Philippines +1.2%, Kospi +0.9%, Sensex +0.9%, Taiwan +0.6%, Singapore +0.5%, Vietnam +0.2%. ASX 200 -0.05%, Indonesia -0.2%,
Topix -1.4%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries surge after the ADP Jobs report showed private employment falls 32k versus estimate of +51k. The number of jobs created in August was revised from 54,000
to -3,000. 10-year yield plunges to trade below 4.10%. 2s10s curve +1.5bps. Today’s report may hold more sway than usual as the shutdown threatens to delay the release of Thursday’s weekly jobless claims and the monthly jobs report slated for Oct. 3. IG dollar
issuance slate is scant, and a subdued session is expected amid the government shutdown. September’s $207.5 billion haul was the fifth-highest month on record and this year’s highest by a $21 billion margin.

 

METALS: 

Gold reached a new all-time high as the US began a government shutdown, raising concerns about disruptions, including delays to critical economic data releases. Spot
gold rose to touch just above $3,895 an ounce, for a fifth straight day of gains. A suspension in federal operations risks adding further pressure on the dollar, supporting gold. Spot gold +0.7%, Silver +1.7%, Copper futures +0.2%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil fell for a third day as traders weighed the possibility that OPEC+ may fast-track its latest round of production hikes into a market already headed for oversupply.
Brent futures traded near $65 a barrel, after falling almost 5% in the past two days. This weekend, the alliance is slated to discuss potentially lifting output in three monthly installments of 500,000 barrels a day to recoup market share, a delegate said,
though OPEC denied that’s part of the agenda. Investors also assessed a mixed US industry report on stockpiles. While nationwide oil holdings fell 3.7 million barrels last week, inventories of gasoline and distillates expanded, the API reported. WTI -0.35%,
Brent -0.3%, US Nat Gas +2.6%, RBOB -1%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar eased to its lowest in a week as the first US government shutdown in nearly seven years got underway. A suspension in federal operations
risks adding further pressure on the dollar, while key data releases vital for evaluating the US economy’s health, such as Friday’s non-farm payroll figures, may face delays. The yen outperforms as confidence among Japan’s large manufacturers improved for
a second straight quarter, supporting the case for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates as early as this month. The euro is slightly weaker. Euro-area inflation accelerated in September, cementing the ECB’s plans to keep interest rates steady for now.
Traders are eyeing the yen and euro as potential hedges against the dollar on the shutdown, according to MLIV. Past closures have seen these currencies, along with the Canadian dollar and EM forex, outperform the greenback. The RBI kept its benchmark interest
rate at 5.5%, as expected, while signaling there may be scope to ease in coming months.  US$ Index -0.05%, GBPUSD +0.2%, EURUSD -0.05%, USDJPY -0.6%, AUDUSD -0.05%, NZDUSD +0.25%, USDCHF +0.3%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK -0.05%, USDNOK -0.5%.

 

 

Bitcoin +1.8%, Ethereum +2.4%.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Algonquin Power (AQN CN) Raised to Buy at Desjardins; PT C$8.70
    • Atex Resources Inc (ATX CN) Raised to Buy at Paradigm Capital; PT C$4
    • Autodesk (ADSK) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $388
    • Banc of California (BANC) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $20
    • Banco BBVA Argentina SA (BBAR AR) ADRs Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $17
    • Banco Macro (BMA AR) ADRs Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $80
    • Beta Bionics (BBNX) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $26
    • BRP Inc. (DOO CN) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT C$93
    • C.H. Robinson (CHRW) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $130
    • Carlyle Secured Lending (CGBD) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $12.50
    • Carvana (CVNA) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $475
    • Delta Air Lines (DAL) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $70
    • Grocery Outlet (GO) Raised to Outperform at Telsey; PT $20
    • Herc Holdings (HRI) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $160
    • Mercury Systems (MRCY) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $90
    • Moody’s (MCO) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $528
    • Polaris (PII) Raised to Neutral at Citi
    • RenaissanceRe (RNR) Raised to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $244
    • Samsara (IOT) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $50
    • Sunrun (RUN) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $21
    • United Rentals (URI) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $1,050
  • Downgrades
    • Allstate (ALL) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $233
    • Arrow Exploration (AXL CN) Cut to Speculative Buy at Canaccord
    • AT&T (T) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $30
    • BioCryst (BCRX) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $8
    • Doximity (DOCS) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $64
    • GE Vernova (GEV) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $605
    • LivaNova (LIVN) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $55
    • Marvell Technology (MRVL) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $85
    • MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $7
    • MYR Group (MYRG) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • Palmer Square Capital BDC (PSBD) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $12
    • Sixth Street Specialty Lending (TSLX) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan
    • Tetra Tech (TTEK) Cut to Neutral at Northcoast
    • Viasat (VSAT) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $23
  • Initiations
    • Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD) Rated New Buy at Jones; PT $33
    • ABB (ABBN SW) ADRs Rated New Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $58
    • Alexandria Real Estate (ARE) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $88
    • Apple Hospitality (APLE) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $14
    • Apple (AAPL) Rated New Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT $310
    • ASML (ASML NA) ADRs Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
    • Astera Labs (ALAB) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen
    • Atlantic International (ATLN) Rated New Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann
    • AvalonBay (AVB) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $205
    • Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $179
    • Bausch + Lomb (BLCO CN) Bausch + Lomb Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT C$22.28
    • Braze (BRZE) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $40
    • Broadstone Net Lease (BNL) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $21
    • Builders FirstSource (BLDR) Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $145
    • BXP (BXP) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $90
    • Camden Property (CPT) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $115
    • CareTrust REIT (CTRE) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $37
    • Cargojet (CJT CN) Rated New Buy at Desjardins; PT C$149
    • Centerspace (CSR) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $62
    • Coinbase (COIN) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $410
    • Cooper Cos (COO) Reinstated Sell at Goldman; PT $64
    • COPT Defense Properties (CDP) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $35
    • Datadog (DDOG) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo
    • Douglas Emmett (DEI) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $16
    • Dynatrace (DT) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $65
    • Eagle Point Credit (ECC) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $7.50
    • EastGroup (EGP) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $190
    • Elastic (ESTC) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $90
    • Equity Residential (EQR) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $70
    • Essential Properties (EPRT) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $35
    • Essex Property (ESS) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $300
    • First Industrial Realty (FR) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $55
    • Freshworks (FRSH) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $13
    • Gaming and Leisure (GLPI) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $51
    • Glaukos (GKOS) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $103
    • Hagerty (HGTY) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $15
    • Healthcare Realty Trust (HR) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $23
    • Healthpeak Properties (DOC) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $20
    • Host Hotels (HST) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $19
    • Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
    • Hudson Pacific (HPP) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $3.50
    • Klaviyo (KVYO) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $40
    • LTC Properties (LTC) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $38
    • Macom (MTSI) Reinstated Buy at TD Cowen; PT $150
    • Mid-America (MAA) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $150
    • Monday.com (MNDY) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $260
    • MongoDB (MDB) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $430
    • National Health Investors (NHI) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $90
    • Netgear (NTGR) Rated New Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT $40
    • Netstreit (NTST) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $21
    • Omega Healthcare (OHI) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $50
    • Oxford Lane (OXLC) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $21.50
    • Oxford Square (OXSQ) Rated New Neutral at Lucid Capital Markets
    • Park Hotels (PK) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $12
    • Patria Investments (PAX) Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $15
    • Pebblebrook (PEB) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $12
    • Pool Corp (POOL) Rated New Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • Quanta Services (PWR) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
    • QXO (QXO) Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $28
    • Realty Income (O) Rated New Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $62
      • Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $64
    • Repligen (RGEN) Rated New Buy at HSBC; PT $150
    • Rexford Industrial (REXR) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $50
    • Ryman Hospitality (RHP) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $108
    • Sabra Health (SBRA) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $20
    • Safehold Inc (SAFE) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $17
    • Semtech (SMTC) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen
    • Snowflake (SNOW) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo
    • Sound Point Meridian Capital (SPMC) Rated New Buy at Clear Street
    • Stag Industrial (STAG) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $37
    • Strawberry Fields REIT (STRW) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $14
    • Target Hospitality (TH) Rated New Hold at Texas Capital; PT $9
    • Terreno Realty (TRNO) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $70
    • UDR (UDR) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $40
    • UMH Properties (UMH) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $15
    • Ventas (VTR) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $77
    • Ventyx Bio (VTYX) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $11
    • VICI Properties (VICI) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $37
    • Welltower (WELL) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $195
    • Whitefiber (WYFI) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $34
    • ZoomInfo (GTM) Rated New Underweight at Wells Fargo

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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Charts

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