Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on October 6, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:

Highlights and News:  

  • Takaichi Win Jolts Yen and Japanese Bonds, Triggers Stock Surge
  • French Stocks Drop Most in Six Weeks After Prime Minister Quits
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) surges 35% after inking a deal with OpenAI
  • Israel and Hamas are set to begin mediated talks today
  • Bitcoin hovers near its fresh all-time high set over the weekend
  • Fifth Third to Purchase Comerica
  • Border Patrol agents shoot armed woman protester in Chicago

 

Pro-stimulus lawmaker Sanae Takaichi’s near-certain elevation as Japan’s next prime minister jolted financial markets, with the yen and long-term bonds tumbling even
as equities surged to all-time highs. Her surprise victory in a ruling party leadership vote over the weekend reduced expectations that Bank of Japan may hike interest rates soon. Growing fiscal concerns in some of the world’s biggest economies are adding
momentum to a so-called “debasement trade,” as investors flock to the perceived safety of Bitcoin, gold and silver while pulling away from major currencies. A growing pile of debt across the US, Japan and Europe that countries are struggling to manage is boosting
the appeal of alternative assets. France’s new Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu and his government unexpectedly resigned, hours after announcing his cabinet line-up, in a major deepening of France’s political crisis that drove French stocks and the euro sharply
lower. The resignation came after Macron’s new government retained most senior members from previous cabinets, which irked opposition parties looking for change. Opposition parties immediately urged President Macron to resign or call a snap parliamentary election.

 

EQUITIES: 

 

US equity futures rose as investors bet that a resilient economy and Fed easing will continue to support corporate earnings. Tech stocks led gains in premarket trading,
with Advanced Micro Devices surging 35% after inking a deal with OpenAI. US companies are set for a better-than-expected earnings season as a robust economy and a solid outlook for artificial intelligence have left estimates looking too low, according to Goldman
Sachs Group strategists. Fifth Third Bancorp agreed to buy Comerica for about $10.9 billion in stock, the largest US bank deal this year and signaling that the Trump administration’s deregulation may be easing barriers to major industry mergers.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.9%, Russell 2000 +0.7%, DJI +0.2%

In pre-market trading, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rises 35% after inking a deal with OpenAI to roll out AI infrastructure in a pact the chipmaker said could generate
tens of billions of dollars in new revenue.  Comerica (CMA) climbs 12% after Fifth Third Bancorp agreed to buy the bank for about $10.9 billion in stock. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are rallying after Bitcoin set another all-time high over the weekend. Critical
Metals (CRML) shares surge 75% after Reuters reports Trump administration officials have discussed taking a stake in the metal mining company. Firefly Aerospace (FLY) rises 8% after the space and defense technology company said it entered into a definitive
agreement to acquire SciTec for about $855 million in cash and stock. Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) climbs 5% after Citizens upgraded the drug developer to market outperform. Micron Technology (MU) is up 3.4% as Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight, saying
the chipmaker is headed for multiple quarters of double-digit price increases.

European gauges have recouped early losses except for the CAC 40 as the French government quit just hours after being appointed. French lenders Societe Generale, Credit
Agricole and BNP Paribas led early declines in the Stoxx Europe 600 index as the nation’s 10-year yield jumped. Abivax gains over 12% following updated safety data for its medicine to treat a chronic inflammatory bowel disease. Redcare Pharmacy shares jump
as much as 15%, the most since March 11, after the company reported prescription sales in Germany. Aston Martin dropped as much as 11% after cutting its volume guidance for the fiscal year. Mondi shares drop as much as 16% after the company warned challenging
conditions are set to continue. Stoxx 600 +0.2%, DAX +0.3%, CAC -1.2%, FTSE 100 +0.2%. Energy +1.1%, Technology +1.1%, Basic Resources +0.7%. Banks -1.1%, Personal Goods -0.6%.

Shares in Asia were mostly higher, led by Japan after a surprise leadership victory for pro-stimulus lawmaker Sanae Takaichi. That offset losses in Hong Kong, while
a number of markets were shut. Japanese stocks surged while yen tumbles following conservative Sanae Takaichi’s victory in LDP leadership election. Hopes of more fiscal spending lifted sentiment, with the Nikkei 225 closing at a fresh record high. Takaichi
is seen as positive for stocks due to her pro-growth plans and opposition to Bank of Japan tightening. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.2% to a new all-time high. Chinese tech stocks slumped in Hong Kong after big recent gains. Volumes were thin amid
holidays in mainland China, Taiwan and South Korea. Investors are awaiting central bank decisions later this week in New Zealand, Thailand and the Philippines. China’s markets will reopen Thursday following the Golden Week holiday. Nikkei 225 +4.75%, Topix
+3.1%, Vietnam +3%, Sensex +0.7%, Indonesia +0.3%, Singapore +0.2%. ASX 200 -0.1%, Thailand -0.6%, Hang Seng Index -0.7%, Philippines -1.8%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold curve-steepening losses that accumulated overnight amid a spike in Japanese long-end yields after Sanae Takaichi’s surprise victory to lead the ruling
party. Concerns are that her pro-stimulus stance will lead to increased debt issuance. French bonds also sold off after President Macron’s appointment of a continuity cabinet drew backlash. US yields are 2.5bp-4.5bp cheaper across tenors with the 10-year around
4.15%; 2s10s and 5s30s +1.5bps. Treasury auctions resume Tuesday with $58 billion 3-year notes, followed by $39 billion 10-year and $22 billion 30-year reopenings Wednesday and Thursday.

 

METALS: 

Gold soars to record topping $3,949 an ounce and silver neared a record, as looming US interest rate cuts and the prospect of a prolonged federal government shutdown
lifted demand.  Gold-backed exchange-traded funds swelled again last week, with private investors contributing to the latest leg in the rally and total holdings expanding the most in more than three years last month. Copper retreated after its biggest weekly
gain in a year as the dollar advanced against the yen and the euro amid political turmoil in Japan and France. Spot gold +1.4%, Silver +1%, Copper futures -1%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices rose after OPEC+ decided on a modest production increase, alleviating concerns among traders about a larger-than-expected hike. OPEC+ said it would raise
production from November by 137,000 barrels per day, matching October’s figure, amid persistent concern over a looming supply glut. The modest production update also comes at a time of rising Venezuelan exports and the resumption of Kurdish oil flows via Turkey.
WTI +0.6%, Brent +0.7%, US Nat Gas +3.6%, RBOB +0.9%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the yen fell to an all-time low against the euro amid concern that the LDP party’s new leader, Sanae Takaichi, would steer toward a looser monetary
policy. Yen weakened ~2% against the dollar as Takaichi’s victory boosted expectations of fiscal stimulus and curbed bets on an immediate rate hike by the Bank of Japan. The euro hit a one-week low after French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu’s resignation.
US$ Index +0.6%, GBPUSD +0.4%, EURUSD -0.6%, USDJPY +1.8%, AUDUSD -0.1%, NZDUSD -0.25%, USDCHF +0.3%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK +0.4%, USDNOK -0.1%.

 

 

Bitcoin +1.3%, Ethereum +1.8%. Bitcoin hovered near its fresh all-time high set over the weekend.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Accelerant (ARX) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $19.50
    • Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn
    • Axalta (AXTA) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $34
    • Blackstone Sec Lending (BXSL) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $30
    • Blue Owl Technology Fina (OTF) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo
    • Brinker (EAT) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $192
    • Charles River (CRL) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
    • Fidus Investment (FDUS) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $21.50
    • First Majestic (AG CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank; PT C$22
    • Ford (F) Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT $12
    • FS KKR Capital (FSK) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $15
    • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) Raised to Market Outperform at Citizens
    • Kayne Anderson BDC (KBDC) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $16.50
    • Lennox (LII) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $575
    • Micron (MU) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $220
    • Mobileye (MBLY) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $19
    • Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) US Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $17
    • MSC Income Fund (MSIF) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $16.50
    • PennantPark Floating (PFLT) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $10.50
    • Stellantis (STLA) Raised to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT $11.37
    • TPG (TPG) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $78
  • Downgrades
    • Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $103
    • AT&T (T) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $30.25
    • Bath & Body Works (BBWI) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $26
    • Boston Beer (SAM) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $235
    • Check Point Software (CHKP) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank
    • Elastic (ESTC) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $90
    • Emerson Electric (EMR) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $140
    • Lithium Americas (LAC CN) Cut to Sector Underperform at Scotiabank; PT $5
    • Merus NV (MRUS) Cut to Market Perform at Leerink; PT $97
    • OR Royalties (OR CN) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT C$35.90
    • Papa John’s (PZZA) Cut to Neutral at BofA
    • Portillo’s (PTLO) Cut to Neutral at BofA; PT $7
    • Shake Shack (SHAK) Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $86
    • SQM (SQM/B CI) ADRs Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $50
    • Sweetgreen (SG) Cut to Neutral at BofA
  • Initiations
    • Apyx Medical Corp (APYX) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets; PT $4
    • AvePoint (AVPT) Rated New Buy at DBS Bank
    • Canada Packers (CPKR CN) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT C$18
    • Cassava Sciences (SAVA) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets
    • Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) Rated New Outperform at Hovde Group; PT $70
    • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX) Rated New Outperform at LifeSci Capital
    • FG Nexus (FGNX) Rated New Buy at ThinkEquity; PT $12
    • Figure Technology (FIGR) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $51
      • Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $54
      • Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities
      • Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $50
      • Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $40
      • Rated New Neutral at Autonomous; PT $41
      • Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $42
      • Rated New Outperform at KBW; PT $48.50
    • Invivyd Inc (IVVD) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $10
    • Klarna (KLAR) Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $45
      • Rated New Outperform at Wedbush; PT $50
      • Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $50
      • Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $43
      • Rated New Buy at Nordea; PT $52
      • Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $46
      • Rated New Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $46
      • Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $50
      • Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $55
      • Rated New Outperform at KBW; PT $52
      • Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $58
      • Rated New Outperform at Autonomous; PT $51
    • LB Pharmaceuticals (LBRX) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $34
      • Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $78
      • Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $27
    • Ondas (ONDS) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $12
    • Pony AI (PONY) ADRs Rated New Buy at Guosheng Securities; PT $40.32
    • Skyward Specialty (SKWD) Rated New Buy at Janney Montgomery; PT $60
    • UMB Financial (UMBF) Rated New Outperform at Hovde Group; PT $145
    • Zillow (ZG) Rated New Market Perform at Oppenheimer

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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