Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on October 9, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Fed’s Powell speaks; 8:35ET Fed’s Bowman speaks; 9:00ET Fed’s Goolsbee speaks; 12:45ET
Fed’s Barr speaks; 1:00ET Fed’s Kashkari and Barr speak, 30-Year Auction; 3:45ET Fed’s Bowman speaks; 9:40pm Fed’s Daly speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • Israel, Hamas Reach Breakthrough Hostage Deal
  • ISRAEL DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS GAZA CEASEFIRE IN EFFECT
  • China tightened its export controls of rare earth technology, expanding April’s restrictions
  • Macron seeks to end French chaos with new premier by Friday
  • JEFFRIES SAYS NO RECENT TALKS BETWEEN HOUSE GOP AND DEMOCRATS
  • Gold most overbought since Aug 7, 2020 when it subsequently saw a 10% decline
  • California officials have charged a 29-year-old Florida resident with allegedly starting the Palisades fire

 

Global stocks steadied after President Trump announced late on Wednesday that Israel and Hamas had reached a ceasefire and hostage deal. Huge obstacles could hinder
any lasting peace between Israel and the Palestinians, despite the announcement of the first phase of a ceasefire deal, analysts said. Later phases of the agreement include numerous requirements that are unlikely to be fulfilled, such as the disarmament of
Hamas. Seemingly Trump is getting the hostages out before negotiations over the terms. The Israeli cabinet will meet today to formally approve the deal. Elsewhere, China tightened export controls on rare earths and batteries, giving Beijing a major bargaining
chip ahead of a potential meeting between Xi Jinping and Trump this month. French President Emmanuel Macron will name a new prime minister this week, likely ruling out snap elections that threatened to push the country deeper into political chaos. German exports
unexpectedly fell for a second month as the value of shipments to the US plunged to their lowest level in almost four years.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures were muted overnight, with investors awaiting Jerome Powell’s comments to gauge whether the central bank is leaning more towards preventing inflation or protecting the
labor market. There is a slew of other Fed speakers throughout the day.  Investors will be keen to hear what the Fed Chair has to say at an event this morning, after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting out Wednesday boosted sentiment.
In corporate news, the US approved several billion dollars’ worth of Nvidia chip exports to the UAE. Costco Wholesale shares rose in premarket trading after the company reported total comparable sales for September that beat estimates. Nassim Taleb gave a
warning that investors should insure against a stock-market crash due to structural issues such as the US debt burden. Positioning data from JPMorgan, meanwhile, suggests some investors including hedge funds are refraining from going all in on stocks. First
Brands’ bankruptcy is starting to reverberate across Wall Street, with BlackRock and others weighing withdrawals from a Jefferies fund tied to the firm. Separately, creditor Raistone is pushing for a probe into how $2.3 billion disappeared.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.01%, Nasdaq -0.03%, Russell 2000 -0.1%, DJI -0.02%

In pre-market trading, Rare earth stocks climb after China unveiled new restrictions on exports ahead of a meeting this month between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Tesla
(TSLA) falls 1.1% as US auto safety regulators opened a probe into the company over incidents in which its vehicles ran through red lights and violated other traffic laws.  Nvidia (NVDA) rises 1.7% after Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target to a Street-high. 
Akero Therapeutics (AKRO) jumps 18% after Novo Nordisk agreed to buy the drug developer for $54 per share in cash at closing, with a contingent value right of $6 per share Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) is down 6% after the company offered shares. AZZ Inc. (AZZ)
falls 7% after the provider of metal-finishing services reported second-quarter sales that missed estimates. Costco (COST) is up 1% after the warehouse club reported comparable sales growth that beat. Delta Air (DAL) climbs 6% after the carrier updated its
adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year, with the new guidance beating. Neogen (NEOG) rises 9% after the food safety firm posted first quarter results. Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV) rises 12% after DoorDash Inc. added the company as an autonomous
delivery partner.

European gauges are mixed as losses in auto stocks offset by gains in construction and telecom shares. Germany’s DAX Index outperforms while hitting an all-time high.
French President Emmanuel Macron said he’ll name a new prime minister by Friday evening, helping to reverse earlier losses in French stocks. Among individual names, HelloFresh shares surge as much as 11% as UBS upgrades to buy from neutral and says the firm
offers a “compelling risk-reward.” Volution shares rise as much as 10%, hitting an all-time high, after the firm delivered annual results that were ahead of expectations. MTG gained as much as 11% after it updated its full-year 2025 guidance and announced
a buyback. Gerresheimer shares drop as much as 14% after the company cut its outlook for the year yet again. Ferrari NV shares plunged ~16% after the carmaker issued cautious forecasts that disappointed investors, marring a coming-out party for the company’s
first electric vehicle. Stoxx 600 -0.05%, DAX +0.55%, CAC +0.5%, FTSE 100 -0.2%. Construction +1.1%, Telecom +0.8%. Autos -3.4%, Retail -1.2%.

Shares in Asia were mostly higher, as an AI-fueled tech rally resumed and stocks in mainland China gained as the market reopened after the Golden Week holidays. The
MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4% for its first gain in three sessions. TSMC was the biggest boost to the index after it reported a 30% increase in quarterly sales as major US tech companies continued to make multibillion-dollar bets on AI. Benchmarks in Japan
and Taiwan climbed to fresh records. Nikkei jumps more than 1.7% as SoftBank shares surge. CSI 300 rallies 1.5% as Chinese equities reopen stronger despite early macro data showing lukewarm Golden Week holiday spending. Hang Seng index underperforms after
HSBC shares tumble on plans to privatize Hang Seng Bank. Meanwhile, the Philippine central bank unexpectedly cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point and signaled it may ease further, warning the economic outlook has deteriorated as a government
graft scandal hits confidence. Nikkei 225 1.75%, CSI 300 +1.5%, Vietnam +1.1%, Indonesia +1%, Taiwan +0.9%, Thailand +0.7%, Sensex +0.5%, ASX 200 +0.25%. Hang Seng Index -0.3%, Singapore -0.3%, Philippines -0.7%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields inch higher but are mostly within a basis point of Wednesday’s closing levels.  10-year yield is up ~1.5bps at 4.13%. $22 billion 30-year bond reopening
follows Wednesday’s middling 10-year note auction, which tailed by 0.8bp. Fed Chair Powell delivers pre-recorded welcoming remarks at its community bank conference at 8:30ET. Fed President John Williams supports more interest rate cuts this year in view of
the risk of a further slowdown in the labor market, he said in a NYT interview. 

 

METALS: 

Gold held above $4,035 an ounce as investors assessed the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, while broader geopolitical and economic uncertainty sustains bullish sentiment
in the metal. Silver hit a record high. Silver, platinum and palladium are enjoying upsized gains for the year, while surprisingly, gold is the worst-performing of the four precious metals this year. China is using the rally in gold to reduce reliance on US-led
financial systems and challenge dollar dominance. Zambia is set for record copper output this year, positioning itself as a key supplier. Spot gold -0.1%, Silver +2.1%, Copper futures +2.0%.

Gold most overbought since Aug 7, 2020 when it saw a 10% decline.

 

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices eased as traders focused on cooling tensions in the Middle East as traders wait to see if the ceasefire and hostage deal between Israel and Hamas can hold.
Many Wall Street banks and the International Energy Agency have predicted that the market will see a major surplus in the coming months. Among them, Goldman Sachs expects Brent to average $56 a barrel next year as global production runs ahead of demand. Russian
strikes have destroyed about 60% of Ukraine’s domestic gas production, forcing Kyiv to seek imports to meet winter demand. The global oil market could face a major shift following the breakthrough in US- and Qatari-led efforts to end the two-year war between
Israel and Hamas in Gaza, according to Rystad Energy AS. WTI -0.45%, Brent -0.4%, US Nat Gas -0.6%, RBOB +0.1%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar erased early gains after NY Fed President John Williams said he supports further interest rates cuts this year. The move was short-lived
with the US$ Index now slightly higher, hovering near a two-month high. The yen fluctuated as Japan’s new ruling party leader, Sanae Takaichi, has yet to reach an agreement with the party’s long-time coalition partner Komeito about continuing their alliance.
Hedge funds have ramped up option trades this week based on the view that currencies such as the euro and yen will weaken against the dollar. Offshore yuan strengthened against the dollar following a solid PBOC fixing. Argentina’s short-term rates surged past
80% as the government stepped up efforts to defend the peso, deepening a cash crunch. Markets are concerned that the currency will be devalued after this month’s midterm elections. India’s central bank ramped up offshore market interventions, building at least
$15 billion in short dollar positions to defend the rupee. US$ Index +0.05%, GBPUSD -0.25%, EURUSD -0.2%, USDJPY +0.05%, AUDUSD +0.2%, NZDUSD -0.15%, USDCHF ~flat, USDCAD -0.05%, USDSEK +0.35%, USDNOK +0.35%.

 

 

Bitcoin +0.2%, Ethereum -2.5%.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Cenovus (CVE CN) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT C$32
    • Citizens Financial (CFG) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $65
    • Dorel Industries (DII/B CN) Raised to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$2.50
    • DraftKings (DKNG) Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT $43
    • Harmony (HAR SJ) ADRs Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $20.50
    • Iqvia (IQV) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $235
    • Karat Packaging (KRT) Raised to Buy at BofA
    • LGI Homes (LGIH) Raised to Buy at Texas Capital; PT $60
    • Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) Raised to Buy at BofA
    • LPL Financial (LPLA) Raised to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Marsh McLennan (MMC) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $242
    • PNC Financial (PNC) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $220
    • Roblox (RBLX) Raised to Neutral at MoffettNathanson LLC
    • Sealed Air (SEE) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $48
    • Supernus (SUPN) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $65
    • Tractor Supply (TSCO) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $62
  • Downgrades
    • Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $13
    • Bloom Energy (BE) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $100
    • Ensign Energy Services (ESI CN) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT C$3
    • Freshpet (FRPT) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $53
    • Graphic Packaging (GPK) Cut to Neutral at BofA
      • Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $21
    • Green Brick (GRBK) Cut to Hold at Texas Capital; PT $71
    • Lycos Energy Inc (LCX CN) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT C$1.50
    • National Fuel Gas (NFG) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $106
    • PulteGroup (PHM) Cut to Sell at CFRA
    • QCR (QCRH) Cut to Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $83
    • RenaissanceRe (RNR) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $303
    • Sonoco (SON) Cut to Neutral at BofA; PT $56
    • Toll Brothers (TOL) Cut to Sell at CFRA
  • Initiations
    • Amentum Holdings (AMTM) Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $30
    • ATRenew (RERE) ADRs Rated New Strong Buy at China Merchants
    • Cava Group (CAVA) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $80
    • Chilean Cobalt (COBA) Rated New Buy at Fundamental Research; PT $1.28
    • Curaleaf (CURA CN) Reinstated Buy at Canaccord; PT C$5
    • Datadog (DDOG) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
    • Evercore (EVR) Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $400
    • First Bancorp PR (FBP) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $25
    • Green Thumb Industries (GTII CN) Reinstated Buy at Canaccord; PT C$18
    • Houlihan Lokey (HLI) Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $210
    • Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Rated New Buy at President Capital Management
    • Jade Biosciences Inc (JBIO) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $28
    • Moelis & Co (MC) Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $80
    • MP Materials (MP) Reinstated Market Perform at BMO; PT $76
    • OFG Bancorp (OFG) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $50
    • Oklo (OKLO) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $175
    • Oracle (ORCL) Rated New Buy at Phillip Secs; PT $350
      • Rated New Outperform at Baird
    • Planet 13 (PLTH CN) Reinstated Hold at Canaccord; PT 35 Canadian cents
    • Popular (BPOP) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $153
    • Primoris Services (PRIM) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners
    • TerrAscend (TSND CN) Reinstated Buy at Canaccord; PT C$2
    • Trex (TREX) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $61
    • UFP Industries (UFPI) Rated New Hold at Stifel; PT $95
    • Verano (VRNO CN) Reinstated Buy at Canaccord; PT C$4
    • Whirlpool (WHR) Rated New Hold at Stifel; PT $80

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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