Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on October 10, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  9:45ET Fed’s Goolsbee speaks; 10:00ET University of Michigan consumer sentiment; 1:00ET
Fed’s Musalem speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • Israel Government Approves Gaza Hostage Deal
  • NETANYAHU SAYS CAMPAIGN IS NOT OVER YET, WE STILL FACE CHALLENGES
  • Iran will not yield to foreign pressure or threats, a senior lawmaker said
  • China Probes Qualcomm for Suspected Anti-Monopoly Violation
  • CHINA TO IMPOSE SPECIAL PORT FEES ON US VESSELS FROM OCT. 14
  • Venezuela’s Machado Wins Nobel Peace Prize

 

Global stocks take a breather a day after a historic ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, with political developments still coming in fast. Israeli Prime Minister
Netanyahu says that Israeli forces will remain in Gaza to exert pressure on Hamas until the group disarms. Japan’s governing coalition collapsed, jolting markets, after talks between Liberal Democratic Party chief Sanae Takaichi and junior partner Komeito
leader Tetsuo Saito ended without agreement. China unveiled sweeping new curbs on its exports of rare earths and other critical materials and will start collecting port fees on ships owned by American companies and individuals, as well as US made vessels.
Investor focus turns to French politics ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s expected announcement of a new prime minister today. Meanwhile, Peru’s Congress swore in Jose Jeri as president shortly after unanimously voting to oust President Dina Boluarte, amid
growing public frustration over increasing crime and corruption allegations.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures edge higher at the end of an up-and-down week for stocks, with corporate earnings season for the third quarter due to kick off on Wall Street next week. The Bureau of
Labor Statistics has recalled staff to compile a key inflation report by month’s end that could help guide the Fed’s next move. Money markets still favor two quarter-point interest rate cuts by year-end, almost fully pricing a 25bp cut this month by the Fed.
Nvidia and AMD would have to ensure US companies get priority access to their AI chips before China, under a bill passed by the Senate. China launched a customs crackdown on Nvidia chips, the FT reported.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.15%, Nasdaq +0.15%, Russell 2000 +0.4%, DJI +0.2%

In pre-market trading,  Alliance Laundry Holdings (ALH) is down 2.1%, set to pare gains after the washer and dryer maker’s stock jumped 13% in its debut session.
Applied Digital (APLD) rallies 25% after the firm said it’s now in advanced discussions with a hyperscaler client for its second data center campus in North Dakota. First-quarter revenue was well ahead of estimates. Centrus Energy (LEU) rises 2.4% after
Evercore ISI raised its price target on the uranium company to a Street-high $452 from $252 as it sees uranium demand for nuclear energy growing. Elastic (ESTC) is up 9.1% after the software firm boosted its full-year 2026 sales forecast for a second time
in two months and announced a $500 million buyback program. Levi Strauss (LEVI) falls 6.3% after the apparel maker’s upgraded earnings guidance still fell short of higher investor expectations. Mosaic (MOS) falls 10% after the fertilizer company said that
third-quarter phosphate production fell below what management expected, citing mechanical issues. Qualcomm (QCOM) drops 1.4% on an antitrust investigation in China over the takeover of connected-vehicle technology provider Autotalks. Venture Global Inc. (VG)
is down 18% as the company potentially faces multibillion-dollar damages over disputed liquefied natural gas shipments.

European gauges are little changed as investors monitor French politics. Auto and real estate shares lead gainers, with energy and defense sectors among the biggest
laggards. Autos outperform after Stellantis said its global vehicle shipments rose 13% year-on-year in the third quarter. Mercedes-Benz shares rise as much as 3.3% as Jefferies analysts say free cash flow for Q3 will be above the carmaker’s prior expectations.
Energiekontor plunged as much as 21% after the onshore wind and solar developer slashed its earnings outlook. Endomines Finland shares fall much as 13% after the mining company said its Chief Financial Officer had resigned. Ibstock fell as much as 15% to the
lowest since 2016, as the brickmaker cautions that uncertainty in its core construction markets led to weaker-than-expected demand. Stoxx 600 %, DAX %, CAC %, FTSE 100 %. Autos +0.9%, Real Estate +0.9%, Retail +0.6%. Aero & Defense -1.7%, Energy -1%, Basic
Resources -0.8%

Shares in Asia were mixed to lower, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index falling 0.9%. Japanese shares slid on news the Komeito party was quitting its coalition with the
Liberal Democratic Party, raising doubts over still-to-be-confirmed new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Topix was one of the region’s biggest losers, after closing at a record on Thursday. South Korean stocks rallied as trading resumed after a string of public
holidays. Kospi surged to a record high and taking its advance for this year to more than 50%. Chinese equities on the mainland and in Hong Kong also declined, with the chip sector being among the top losers. Chinese battery companies slumped after China announced
export controls on lithium battery components, strengthening its hold on key energy storage and electric vehicle technology. China also hit back at US ships with additional port fees starting on October 14. Chinese biotechnology stocks declined after the US
Senate backed legislation that would block some of China’s biotech firms from receiving federal funding. In corporate news, SoftBank is said to be in talks to borrow $5 billion from global banks, with the capital to fund additional investment in OpenAI this
year and secured by ARM stock. Hang Seng Tech -3.3%, Thailand -2.1%, CSI 300 -2%, Topix -1.8%, Hang Seng Index -1.7%, Philippines and Singapore -0.3%, ASX 200 -0.1%. Sensex +0.4%, Kospi +1.7%, Vietnam +1.8%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold long-end-led gains in early US session, underpinned by a bigger curve-flattening advance in UK bond market. French bonds also gain, with President
Emmanuel Macron expected to name a new prime minister by end of day. US yields are 2.5bp-4bp richer across the curve with 2s10s flatter by nearly 2bp, 5s30s by about 1bp; 10-year is lower by 4bp near 4.10%. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far with minimal
activity expected, marking the quietest two-week stretch since early April.

 

METALS: 

Spot gold rises back to just below $4,000/oz while silver jumps as much as 3.5% before paring some of its gains. The silver lease rate, the one-month of return holders
of silver in London vaults get loaning their metal, topped 11%, indicating a deepening shortage. Silver’s dual monetary and industrial role has expanded demand rapidly, with China at the center of such growth.  Gold rebounded from earlier overnight losses
and is on track for an eighth consecutive weekly gain, driven by broad political and economic uncertainty and expectations of further US rate cuts. Spot gold %, Silver +1.7%, Copper futures are flat.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices declined, extending yesterday’s losses as the market’s risk premium faded after Israel and Hamas agreed to the first phase of a plan to end the war in
Gaza. Under the cease fire deal, which Israel’s government ratified today, fighting will cease, Israel will partially withdraw from Gaza, and Hamas will free all remaining hostages it captured, in exchange for hundreds of prisoners held by Israel. Russia hit
Kyiv with a drone and missile attack that left parts of the capital without power and disrupted water supply. WTI -1.6%, Brent -1.5%, US Nat Gas -2.7%, RBOB -0.8%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar fell against most Group-of-10 peers yet remained on track for its best week since November 2024. The euro is flat versus the dollar
as French President Emmanuel Macron said he’ll name a new prime minister by Friday evening. The yen firmed as Japan’s finance minister stepped up his warnings over yen movements, after the currency hit a fresh eight-month low against the dollar early today.
USDJPY is still heading for its best week in a year. Aussie$ is flat; Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock said Australia’s economy is in a “pretty good spot.” US$ Index -0.2%, GBPUSD -0.2%, EURUSD ~flat, USDJPY -0.3%, AUDUSD -0.05%, NZDUSD +0.05%, USDCHF
flat, USDCAD ~flat, USDSEK -0.1%, USDNOK +0.4%.

 

 

Bitcoin +0.4%, Ethereum +0.2%.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Baidu (BIDU) ADRs Raised to Outperform at Macquarie; PT $176
    • Beacon Financial (BBT) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $33
    • Ciena (CIEN) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $140
    • Columbia Banking (COLB) Raised to Outperform at KBW
    • Core Natural Resources (CNR) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $125
    • Equinox Gold (EQX CN) Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT C$22
    • First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT C$42
    • FormFactor (FORM) Raised to Buy at B Riley; PT $47
    • Littelfuse (LFUS) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $310
    • nCino (NCNO) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
    • NetEase (NTES) ADRs Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $190
    • Newmont Corp (NEM) Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT $112
    • OceanFirst (OCFC) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $22
    • Synchrony Financial (SYF) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $81
    • TechnipFMC (FTI) Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $47
    • Walker & Dunlop (WD) Raised to Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $95
    • Waste Connections (WCN CN) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
  • Downgrades
    • Akero Therapeutics (AKRO) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
      • Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Align Technology (ALGN) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $140
    • Allogene (ALLO) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
    • ArcelorMittal (MT NA) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $33
    • Centerra Gold (CG CN) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James; PT C$16.50
    • Comerica (CMA) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $93
    • Doximity (DOCS) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $62
    • Dyne Therapeutics (DYN) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
    • ERO Copper (ERO CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$37
    • Keysight (KEYS) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $180
    • OR Royalties (OR CN) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James; PT C$57.49
    • Orezone Gold (ORE CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$2.10
    • Pliant Therapeutics (PLRX) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
    • Saratoga Investment (SAR) Cut to Neutral at Janney Montgomery; PT $22
    • Secure Waste (SES CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$22
    • Tilray Brands (TLRY) Cut to Underperform at ATB Capital; PT 85 cents
    • Trilogy Metals (TMQ CN) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT C$7.71
    • Venture Global (VG) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $12
  • Initiations
    • Abbott (ABT) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $145
    • Acuren (TIC) Rated New Neutral at Baird; PT $15
    • Aptiv (APTV) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $109
    • Ares Capital (ARCC) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets; PT $22.50
    • ARM Holdings (ARM) ADRs Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
    • Celsius Holdings (CELH) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
    • Cidara (CDTX) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $200
    • Corebridge Financial (CRBG) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Five Star Bancorp (FSBC) Rated New Buy at Janney Montgomery; PT $37
    • Golar LNG (GLNG) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $51
    • Guardian Pharmacy Services (GRDN) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer
    • Gyre Therapeutics Inc (GYRE) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $16
    • Karman Holdings (KRMN) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $89
    • Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) US Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets; PT $18.50
    • New Mountain (NMFC) Rated New Neutral at Lucid Capital Markets; PT $10
    • Northwest Bancshares (NWBI) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $15
    • Perspective Therapeutics (CATX) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $14
    • StandardAero (SARO) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $35
    • Technip Energies (TE FP) ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $46.80
    • Tenaris (TEN IM) ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $39.80
    • Vallourec (VK FP) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $4.65
    • Viking Holdings (VIK) Rated New Underperform at Mizuho Securities
    • Weatherford (WFRD) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $82
    • Zymeworks (ZYME) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $30

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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