Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  12:55ET Fed’s Paulson speaks

Highlights and News:  

• Bessent: Optimistic can de-escalate with China, Trump is on track to meet Xi in Korea
• Beijing defended on Sunday its curbs on exports of rare earth elements and equipment
• Hamas freed all 20 remaining living Israeli hostages from the Gaza Strip
• Netanyahu will not travel to the Gaza peace summit in Egypt
• JPMorgan announces $1.5 trillion U.S. investment initiative
• Macron names new French cabinet to address ongoing crisis
• TRUMP: EVERY NATION WANTS ME TO BE CHAIR OF BOARD OF PEACE

Global stocks rose after the Trump administration signaled openness to a deal with China to curb fresh trade tensions while warning that recent export controls announced
by Beijing were a major barrier to talks. After announcing the 100% tariffs on Friday, Trump posted on Sunday: “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! He added, The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!” Vice President JD Vance called on Beijing
to “choose the path of reason” in the latest spiraling trade fight. China’s Ministry of Commerce said earlier Sunday that the US should stop threatening it with higher tariffs and urged further negotiations to resolve trade issues. Chinese exports to the US
plunged 27% in September, but overall shipments rose 8.3%, giving Beijing leverage in the trade standoff. Hamas freed all 20 remaining living Israeli hostages from the Gaza Strip this morning, while Israel began freeing jailed Palestinians around the same
time. Elsewhere, Macron reappointed Lecornu as prime minister, with the task of forming a government and trying to pass a budget for 2026. Markets assessed the future for new Liberal Democratic Party leader Sanae Takaichi after Komeito quit the ruling coalition
on Friday, undermining her aspirations to become Japan’s first female prime minister. 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures bounce from Friday’s sharp declines after the US administration tones down China trade rhetoric. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said that while he still expected
an extension of the current tariff pause, recent developments suggested a wider range of outcomes was now possible. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson said the S&P 500 risks an 11% drop if US-China trade tensions aren’t resolved before a November deadline. The Pentagon
is looking to buy as much as $1 billion of critical minerals to stockpile, the FT reported. AstraZeneca agreed to lower consumer prices and invest in manufacturing in the US in exchange for tariff relief. JPMorgan vowed to funnel $1.5 trillion into industries
that bolster US economic security and resiliency over the next 10 years — an initiative that will invest billions of dollars in companies and hire bankers and other professionals. Earnings season kicks off this week with major banks reporting.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +1.1%, Nasdaq +1.7%, Russell 2000 +1.6%, DJI +0.8%. Both S&P500 and Nasdaq hold their initial key supports at the
50dma.

In pre-market trading, US-listed rare earth and critical mineral stocks rise following strong gains among Asian peers, as fresh tensions between Beijing and Washington
over China’s exports of the critical minerals fueled bets on alternative suppliers. Critical Metals (CRML) advances 18%; MP Materials (MP) +8%, Energy Fuels (UUUU) +12%.  Blackstone (BX) rises 2% after agreeing to sell a portfolio of UK warehouses valued at
$1.3 billion to Tritax Big Box REIT. Estee Lauder (EL) climbs 4.8% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the beauty company to buy from neutral. Fastenal (FAST) falls 4% after the maker of sheet metal screws posted 3Q profit that slightly missed estimates. StubHub
(STUB) gains 4% after the company received several bullish initiations following its initial public offering.  Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) rises 4% as the media company rejected Paramount Skydance Corp.’s initial takeover approach for being too low. Disney
(DIS) gains 2.7% after Taylor Swift announced new programming for Disney+ for December.

European gauges are up slightly, off the earlier highs after Trump indicated a trade deal with China was still possible. Mining and technology shares are leading gains,
while the telecom sector is the biggest laggard. European pharmaceutical stocks ease following AstraZeneca’s deal with the Trump administration to lower drug prices in the US in exchange for tariff relief.  Among individual names, Medincell shares rise as
much as 18%, hitting a record high, after a partnership with Teva Pharmaceuticals gained FDA approval for a treatment for Bipolar I disorder. Exosens rose as much as 20% to a record-high after its partner and client Theon announced on Saturday that it plans
to buy a 9.8% stake in the French maker of night-vision goggles. Serica Energy shares rise as much as 8.5% after the oil and gas firm agreed to buy BP’s stake in two UK North Sea licenses.  Stoxx 600 +0.3%, DAX +0.2%, CAC +0.2%, FTSE 100 -0.1%. Basic Resources
+2.1%, Real Estate +1.1%, Technology +1.4%. Telecom -0.9%, Aero & Defense -0.6%.

Shares in Asia declined as concerns over renewed trade tensions between the US and China weighed on sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index fell as much as
2.2%, the biggest drop in six months, before paring losses to -1.2%. Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong led losses while Vietnam outperformed.  Meanwhile, losses on the onshore CSI 300 index narrowed to 0.5% at the close as local chipmakers rose on expectations
that US-China tensions would push Beijing to restrict US tech imports. Data from China pointed to some resilience in trade with exports rising 8.3%, almost twice the forecast, and imports went up strongly. Indian agriculture stocks gained after Prime Minister
Modi unveiled two programs worth a combined $4 billion to boost the farm sector. Markets were closed for holidays in Japan and Thailand. Hang Seng Index -1.5%, Taiwan -1.4%, ASX 200 -0.8%, Singapore -0.8%, Kospi -0.7%, Sensex -0.2%, Shanghai Composite -0.2%.
Philippines +0.2%, Vietnam +1%. 

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury futures drift lower while cash Treasuries remain closed for Columbus Day. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far with minimal activity expected. Last week
marked the quietest two-week stretch since early April.

METALS: 

Gold hit a new record high in a sign that uncertainty remained high. Concerns about a lack of liquidity in London drove silver toward a record high. Goldman Sachs
analysts said on Sunday that silver prices were expected to rise in the medium term due to private investment flows but warned of heightened near-term volatility and downside risks compared to gold. Spot silver climbed as much as 3.1% to near $52 an ounce,
while gold surpassed $4,070 an ounce. Platinum and palladium also surged, amid signs that market stresses are starting to spread to other precious metals. UBS raised its copper price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing tightening supply and disruptions like
the Grasberg outage. Meanwhile, US-China trade tensions cast a shadow over LME Week, which kicks off today. Spot gold +1.5%, Silver +2.6%, Copper futures +2.5%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices rise on hopes the US and China would find some compromise on trade to avoid fresh tariffs. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries left its
oil-demand forecasts steady as it works to revive more production but pointed to fiscal concerns and persistent trade uncertainties. OPEC expects global oil demand to grow by 1.3 million barrels a day this year and by 1.4 million in 2026. Meanwhile, “the U.S.’s
recent indication that it may reimpose tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese imports has once again underscored the lingering uncertainty surrounding trade policy,” the group said. WTI +1.5%, Brent +1.1%, US Nat Gas -1.1%, RBOB +1.1%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar edged up as investors anticipated the US would moderate its recent trade war escalation with China, while political developments in
France and Japan undermined the euro and the yen. The euro fell, shrugging off the French presidency’s announcement of Prime Minister Lecornu’s new cabinet lineup on Sunday, reappointing Roland Lescure, a close ally of Emmanuel Macron, as finance minister.
China’s yuan edges firmer on strongest fixing in almost a year and data showed China’s export growth picked up pace in September. US$ Index +0.3%, GBPUSD -0.2%, EURUSD -0.45%, USDJPY +0.6%, AUDUSD +0.5%, NZDUSD -0.05%, USDCHF +0.65%, USDCAD ~flat, USDSEK +0.2%,
USDNOK -0.2%.

Bitcoin -0.4%, Ethereum -0.6%. Cryptocurrency markets fluctuated between gains and losses after a sharp selloff on Friday.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• AMD (AMD) Raised to Outperform at KGI Securities; PT $260
• Argan (AGX) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $315
• ASML (ASML NA) ADRs Raised to Hold at GF Securities; PT $882
• Commvault Systems (CVLT) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $200
• Estee Lauder (EL) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $115
• Global Medical REIT (GMRE) Raised to Market Outperform at Citizens
• Karyopharm (KPTI) Raised to Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $15
• Newmont Corp (NEM) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $104.30
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $248
• Progress Software (PRGS) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $57
• Public Storage (PSA) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank
• Shake Shack (SHAK) Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT $95
• Sprouts Farmers (SFM) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $148
• WEC Energy (WEC) Raised to Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $126.50
• Yelp (YELP) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI
• Downgrades
• Akero Therapeutics (AKRO) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $58
• Axcelis Technologies (ACLS) Cut to Underperform at BofA
• Baldwin Insurance (BWIN) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $33
• Cemex (CEMEXCPO MM) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $10
• Civitas Resources (CIVI) Cut to Hold at SWS
• Eversource (ES) Cut to Neutral at Janney Montgomery; PT $72
• Fair Isaac (FICO) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
• GlobalFoundries (GFS) Cut to Underperform at BofA
• Gold Fields (GFI SJ) ADRs Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT $39
• Green Impact Partners In (GIP CN) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT C$5
• Intel (INTC) Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $34
• Liberty Energy (LBRT) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $12
• Marqeta (MQ) Cut to Sell at Goldman
• Patterson-UTI (PTEN) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays
• PayPal (PYPL) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $70
• Portillo’s (PTLO) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $6
• ProPetro (PUMP) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays
• Texas Instruments (TXN) Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $190
• Initiations
• Abivax (ABVX FP) ADRs Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $142
• Alcon AG (ALC SW) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays
• AnaptysBio (ANAB) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $78
• Atai Life Sciences (ATAI) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $12
• Aura Minerals (ORA CN) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $46.60
• BXP (BXP) Rated New Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $85
• Celestica (CLS CN) Rated New Buy at Aletheia Capital; PT C$490.04
• Celldex (CLDX) Rated New Underweight at Barclays; PT $25
• Climb Bio Inc (CLYM) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $9
• Cooper Cos (COO) Rated New Overweight at Barclays
• Corvus Pharmaceuticals (CRVS) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $16
• Dr Reddy’s (DRRD IN) ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $13.18
• Essential Properties (EPRT) Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT $36
• EToro Group (ETOR) Rated New Buy at Compass Point; PT $66
• GE Healthcare (GEHC) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays
• GH Research (GHRS) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $19
• Mind (MNMD) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $28
• Monopar (MNPR) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $125
• Netskope (NTSK) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $27
• Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $28
• Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $30
• Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $25
• Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $28
• Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $28
• Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $25
• Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $27
• Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $26
• Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $27
• Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $26
• Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $26
• Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $27
• Netstreit (NTST) Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT $22
• Oruka Therapeutics Inc (ORKA) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $48
• RAPT Therapeutics (RAPT) Reinstated Overweight at Barclays; PT $35
• Rimini Street (RMNI) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets; PT $6
• Select Water Solutions I (WTTR) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $18
• SL Green (SLG) Rated New Neutral at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $62
• Stubhub (STUB) Rated New Outperform at Wedbush; PT $25
• Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $23
• Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $28
• Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
• Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $24
• Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $24
• Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $24
• Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $30
• Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $46
• Tesla (TSLA) Rated New Buy at Melius; PT $520
• TransMedics (TMDX) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $145
• Tvardi Therapeutics (TVRD) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $61
• Veeva (VEEV) Rated New Buy at China Merchants; PT $351
• Vornado Realty (VNO) Rated New Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $48
• WaterBridge Infrastructure (WBI) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James
• Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan
• Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo
• Rated New Neutral at Piper Sandler
• Rated New Buy at Texas Capital
• US Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $32
• Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $30
• Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $21
• Yum China (YUMC) Rated New Buy at Soochow Securities

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke