Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on October 15, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Sept. CPI to be Released Oct. 24, Empire Manufacturing; 9:30ET Fed’s Miran speaks;
12:30ET Fed’s Miran speaks; 1:00ET Fed’s Waller speaks; 2:00ET Fed’s Beige Book; 2:30ET Fed’s Schmid speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • BESSENT: OPTIMISTIC ON CHINA, WE ARE NOW COMMUNICATING
  • “Phase Two” of the ceasefire agreement cannot begin until the remains of 20 other hostages return
  • Senior Ukrainian officials visiting the US met with US weapon manufacturers including Raytheon
  • UK taking targeted action against companies in India and China who get Russian oil
  • BofA, Morgan Stanley Beat on 3Q Trading Revenue
  • Gold hits new record above $4,200 an ounce
  • Japan’s opposition leaders meet today to discuss uniting behind Yuichiro Tamaki as a PM candidate

 

Global stocks advanced as strong earnings reignited risk appetite in a market that’s been whipsawed for days by shifting trade-war fears. Sentiment also increased
after comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell were perceived as dovish, with roughly 48 basis points worth of U.S. rate cuts priced in by December. An upward revision to the IMF’s 2025 global growth outlook further supported market gains. In China,
deflationary pressures persisted, data showed, with both consumer and producer prices falling in September. Producer prices in September fell 2.3% from a year earlier, narrowing from a 2.9% fall in August, NBS data showed. The decline was the smallest in seven
months, helped by government efforts to curb price competition. Citi’s chief global macro strategist says markets aren’t adequately pricing in risks of the latest round of trade tensions. Goldman’s Cullen Morgan expects CTAs to be sellers under every scenario,
potentially offloading as much as $232 billion across global stocks should a down market take hold. The remains of at least twenty other hostages are still in the procession of Hamas that need to be turned over to Israel before “Phase Two” of the ceasefire
agreement can begin in Gaza. Officials and Palestinian sources have stated that this may take longer than would be preferred by both the US and Israel.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures rise, with investors encouraged by a robust earnings season kickoff and after Fed Chair Powell signaled the US central bank is on track to deliver another quarter-point
interest-rate cut later this month. Derivatives markets are sending mixed signals on the path ahead. Some see the spike in near-term derivatives pricing as a signal froth had been blown out of the market, while others see the inverted VIX curve as a precursor
of more pain for stock traders. In corporate news, Apple is preparing to expand its manufacturing operations in Vietnam as part of a push into the smart home market and in an effort to lessen dependence on China.  Stellantis vowed to invest $13 billion in
the US over the next four years as it seeks to reinvigorate its business and mitigate tariff costs. Investors will hear from policy makers today after Chair Jerome Powell reiterated concerns about labor-market weakness on Tuesday and signaled the central bank
may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.75%, Nasdaq +1%, Russell 2000 +1.2%, DJI +0.5%.

In pre-market trading, Bank of America (BAC) rises 4% after third-quarter earnings beat estimates as investment-banking activity increased amid a long-awaited comeback
in M&A. Morgan Stanley’s equities trading and wealth management revenue trounced expectations (MS +4.3%). ASP Isotopes (ASPI) falls 9% after the company proposed a public offering of its common stock. Bunge Global SA (BG) rises 5% after recasting its outlook.
Dollar Tree (DLTR) climbs 6% after the US discount retailer projected earnings per share to gain as much as 10% annually over the next three years. Grindr (GRND) gains 5% after the company said its largest shareholders are exploring an acquisition. Papa John’s
(PZZA) shares jump 12% as Reuters reports Apollo Global Management submitted a bid within the last week to take the pizza chain operator private at $64 per share. Sable Offshore (SOC) falls 26% after the Santa Barbara Superior Court issued a tentative ruling
indicating that it will deny the firm’s claims against the Coastal Commission for issuing cease and desist orders during Sable’s repair program on the Las Flores pipeline.

European gauges are mixed to higher, led by CAC 40, as investors welcomed better-than-expected earnings from LVMH and ASML as well as a reduction in French political
uncertainty. French PM Lecornu managed to bring the Socialist Party on board and now stands a chance of surviving tomorrow’s confidence vote and passing the budget. Europe’s Stoxx 600 climbed as LVMH surged 14% on a surprise growth rebound, fueling a luxury
stock rally. ASML Holding NV also advanced after exceeding order expectations. ASML, which is the only company that makes extreme ultraviolet lithography machines needed to produce the most sophisticated chips, is benefiting from a boom in AI infrastructure
spending. OpenAI has already struck deals for data centers and chips that top $1 trillion. Among other names, TotalEnergies gained as much as 3.2% after the French energy company showed improving refining margins. Strabag shares slid as much as 11% in Vienna
after the Haselsteiner family sold 2.5 million shares in the construction company at a discount. Stoxx 600 +0.6%, DAX +0.05%, CAC +2.3%, FTSE 100 -0.4%. Luxury +6%, Personal Goods +3.5%, Technology +1.75%. Healthcare -0.7%, Defense -0.5%.

Shares in Asia were broadly higher, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising 2%, rebounding from its three-day slide. Although the ongoing verbal sparring between the
US and China continues to worry investors, Powell’s indications of a Federal Reserve rate cut, and the conclusion of quantitative tightening are offering significant relief. South Korea’s Kospi was the stand-out performer on buying from local funds. Shares
of Apple suppliers in China rise after CEO Tim Cook pledged to boost investment in China during a visit to the Asian country. Japanese shares made strong gains as leaders of the main opposition parties are set to meet to explore narrowing policy differences
and selecting a joint candidate for the premiership. Kospi +2.7%, Hang Seng Tech +2.6%, Hang Seng Index +1.8%, Taiwan +1.8%, Nikkei 225 +1.75%, Thailand +1.6%, CSI 300 +1.5%, ASX 200 +1%, Sensex +0.7%. Vietnam -0.2%, Indonesia -0.2%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold small, curve-flattening gains in early US trading with long-end yields richer by around 2bp on the day. Gilts provide support, outperforming after
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey flagged a weaker jobs market. French bonds rallied for a second day, pushing yields to their lowest in two months. Yields on US Treasuries fell to the lowest levels in months, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled the
US central bank is on track to deliver another quarter-point cut later this month. Additional comments from Powell signaling that the central bank may soon stop shrinking its balance sheet also helped lift Treasuries. Treasury yields are 0bp-2bp richer across
the curve with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads about 1.5bp flatter; 10-year near 4.01%.

 

METALS: 

Spot gold broke through $4,200 an ounce for the first time, extending its record-breaking run, helped by US rate cut expectations. Silver surged over 3%, boosted
by an escalation in US-China frictions, while availability of the metal in the London market remained tight. Traders remain on edge ahead of the conclusion of the US administration’s so-called Section 232 probe into critical minerals — which includes silver,
as well as platinum and palladium. The investigation has revived fears the metals could be swept up in new tariffs. Spot gold +1.4%, Silver +3.15%, Copper futures +0.3%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices steadied as traders weighed the International Energy Agency’s prediction of a supply surplus in 2026 and trade tensions between the U.S. and China that
could curtail demand. Kazakhstan’s oil production rose by 13.2% in the first quarter of 2025 compared with the same period last year, despite OPEC quota commitments. The UK sanctioned Russia’s biggest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, according to the Office
of Financial Sanctions Implementation. The UK also sanctioned China’s Beihai LNG terminal and India’s Nayara Energy. WTI +0.1%, Brent -0.05%, US Nat Gas -1.7%, RBOB -0.05%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar fell against all major peers as bets on Fed rate cuts grew. Powell, as well as Boston Fed’s Collins, suggested scope for further cuts
this year in commentary on Tuesday. The euro edges higher as the currency has largely been insulated from France’s political turmoil. Asian currencies bounced back against the dollar following losses this week. The yen firms as Japanese opposition parties
meet to agree on their own candidate to become the next prime minister, reducing the prospect of dovish ruling party leader Sanae Takaichi securing the role. This will be the first three-way meeting among the opposition parties since the collapse of the ruling
coalition. US$ Index -0.2%, GBPUSD +0.25%, EURUSD +0.1%, USDJPY -0.25%, AUDUSD +0.5%, NZDUSD +0.15%, USDCHF -0.1%, USDCAD -0.05%, USDSEK -0.55%, USDNOK -0.7%.

 

 

Bitcoin -0.9%, Ethereum -0.3%.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Amphenol (APH) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $150
    • Apellis Pharma (APLS) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $32
    • BCE (BCE CN) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT C$37
      • Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$37
    • Easterly Government (DEA) Raised to Buy at Compass Point; PT $26.45
    • JPMorgan (JPM) Raised to Buy at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $327.63
    • Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $29
    • Nvidia (NVDA) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $320
    • Ovintiv (OVV) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $55
    • Sunrun (RUN) Raised to Market Perform at BMO; PT $19
    • Thomson Reuters (TRI CN) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT C$266
    • Vor BioPharma (VOR) Raised to Outperform at Baird
  • Downgrades
    • America Movil (AMXB MM) ADRs Cut to Hold at Banorte; PT $18.69
    • Arvinas (ARVN) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $6
    • Astria Therapeutics Inc (ATXS) Cut to Neutral at Wedbush; PT $13
      • Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
      • Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
    • CyberArk (CYBR) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT $502
    • Fairfax Financial (FFH CN) Cut to Market Perform at Cormark Securities
    • FirstEnergy (FE) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • Fortive (FTV) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $53
    • GE Vernova (GEV) Cut to Sell at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $475
    • Guru Organic Energy (GURU CN) Cut to Hold at Stifel Canada; PT C$4.50
    • Henry Schein (HSIC) Cut to Strong Sell at CFRA
    • Ibotta (IBTA) Cut to Sell at Goldman
    • Imperial Oil (IMO CN) Cut to Underperform at CIBC; PT C$110
    • KinderCare (KLC) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $6
    • MasTec (MTZ) Cut to Neutral at Guggenheim
    • MediaAlpha (MAX) Cut to Neutral at Goldman
    • Pool Corp (POOL) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
    • Potlatch (PCH) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $45
    • Primoris Services (PRIM) Cut to Neutral at Guggenheim
    • Quebecor (QBR/B CN) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT C$46
    • Roper (ROP) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $541
    • SiteOne Landscape (SITE) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
    • Teck Resources (TECK/B CN) Cut to Sell at Veritas Investment Research Co
    • Watsco (WSO) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
  • Initiations
    • Adidas (ADS GR) ADRs Rated New Neutral at BTIG
    • BioCryst (BCRX) Reinstated Buy at TD Cowen; PT $30
    • BJ’s Wholesale (BJ) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $120
    • Burlington Stores (BURL) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
    • Capri Holdings (CPRI) Reinstated Buy at BTIG; PT $30
    • Capstone Copper (CS CN) Rated New Outperform at Bradesco BBI; PT C$17
    • Columbia Sports (COLM) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $75
    • Costco (COST) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $1,115
    • DoorDash (DASH) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim
    • EQT Corp (EQT) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • ERO Copper (ERO CN) Rated New Neutral at Bradesco BBI; PT C$31
    • Expand Energy (EXE) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Figs (FIGS) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $9
    • Futu Holdings (FUTU) ADRs Rated New Buy at CMB International; PT $224
    • G-III Apparel (GIII) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $32
    • Gap (GAP) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $30
    • Globalstar (GSAT) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $66
    • Instacart (CART) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim
    • Kohl’s (KSS) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
    • Kontoor Brands (KTB) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $95
    • Levi Strauss (LEVI) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $27
    • Lexeo Therapeutics (LXEO) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $30
    • Lyft (LYFT) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim
    • Macy’s (M) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
    • Madrigal Pharma (MDGL) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $580
    • MBX Biosciences (MBX) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $50
    • McEwen Inc. (MUX) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $25
    • Nike (NKE) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $100
    • Nuvalent (NUVL) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $135
    • Pharvaris (PHVS) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $60
    • PVH (PVH) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $100
    • Quinsam Opportunities I (VHI CN) Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$15
    • Ralph Lauren (RL) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $400
    • Ross Stores (ROST) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
    • Savers Value Village (SVV) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $18
    • Strategy (MSTR) Rated New Buy at China Renaissance; PT $473
    • Tapestry (TPR) Reinstated Buy at BTIG; PT $140
    • Target (TGT) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
    • Terns (TERN) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $20
    • TJX (TJX) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $165
    • Uber (UBER) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim
    • Under Armour (UAA) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
    • Viatris (VTRS) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $15
    • Walmart (WMT) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $120
    • WaterBridge Infrastructure (WBI) Rated New Overweight at Barclays
    • Wave Life Sciences (WVE) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $22

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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