Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on October 16, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET September Retail Sales (delayed), PPI Final Demand (delayed), Initial Jobless Claims
(delayed), Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, New York Fed Services Business Activity; 9:00ET Fed’s Miran speaks, Fed’s Barr speaks, Fed’s Waller speaks; 10:00ET Fed’s Bowman speaks, Inventories Report Delayed, NAHB Housing Market Index; 4:15ET Fed’s Miran
speaks; 6:00ET Fed’s Kashkari speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • French Prime Minister Lecornu Survives No-Confidence Motions
  • Trump says Modi assured him India will stop buying Russian oil
  • TSMC Raises Sales Growth Outlook on AI Demand
  • Ken Griffin said generative AI doesn’t help hedge funds produce market-beating returns
  • Apple’s head of its ChatGPT-like search effort is leaving for Meta
  • SALESFORCE & GOOGLE EXPAND PARTNERSHIP
  • Penn State could get $100 million from private equity while paying Coach Franklin $50 million to leave

 

Global stocks advance as strong technology earnings shifted focus away from the lingering threat of a US-China trade war. Sentiment improved after US Treasury Secretary
Scott Bessent dangled the possibility of extending a pause of import duties on Chinese goods for longer than three months if China halts its plan for new controls on rare-earths. Chinese state media released a seven-point response countering the demands, as
both nations grapple with ongoing tensions and mutual accusations of bad faith. Meanwhile, global CEOs including Apple’s Tim Cook are expected to meet top Chinese trade negotiator He Lifeng in Beijing this week. In France, Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu
survived no-confidence motions, bringing some respite from a political crisis that came close to triggering snap elections this week. Hamas says it has handed over all the bodies of hostages that it can find without special machinery in the devastated Gaza
Strip. Israel says Hamas is not trying hard enough and owes at least another dozen bodies under the terms of the ceasefire. The dispute is among a number of cracks becoming apparent as the deal moves toward its second phase.

 

EQUITIES: 

 US equity futures rise as an olive branch from Treasury Secretary Bessent calmed trade-war fears, while a guidance hike from chipmaker TSMC rejuvenated the AI narrative. Artificial intelligence-linked
US heavyweights lead premarket gains, including Nvidia, Micron Technology and Broadcom. Retail traders are buying the dip and have “extraordinary” levels of bullishness, according to Citadel Securities’ Scott Rubner. Institutional clients, in contrast, have
been buying hedges. Out of the 41 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 78% have beat analyst forecasts. JB Hunt surged premarket after the freight transportation company reported 3Q profit above estimates. Salesforce jumped more
than 5% in premarket trading after the software company forecast that revenue growth will accelerate to double digits in the coming years. China’s new rare-earth export curbs prompted a backlash from G-7 finance chiefs, with Scott Bessent signaling an emerging
united front.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.5%, Russell 2000 +0.3%, DJI +0.1%.

In pre-market trading, Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) falls 9% after the computer hardware and storage company issued a full-year forecast for profit and cash flow
that fell short of analysts’ estimates. Jack in the Box (JACK) rises 2% after entering into an agreement to sell Del Taco Holdings to Yadav Enterprises for $115 million in cash.  JB Hunt (JBHT) gains 12% after the transportation and logistics company reported
third-quarter earnings that beat the average analyst estimate helped by better cost control measures. Praxis Precision Medicines (PRAX) soars 54% as two studies in its Phase 3 Essential3 program of ulixacaltamide in essential tremor met their primary endpoints.
Salesforce (CRM) rises 5.5% after the software company forecast that revenue growth will accelerate to double digits in the coming years.  Sea Ltd. ADRs (SE) rises 4% after an upgrade from BofA Global Research to buy from neutral. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Co. (TSM) rises 2% after it hiked its projection for 2025 revenue growth for the second time this year. Travelers (TRV) falls 4% after the insurance company reported net premiums written that came in below the average analyst estimates. Critical Metals Corp
Raises $50M In PIPE Deal To Advance Massive Rare Earth Project In Greenland; CRML +15%.

European gauges are mostly higher with CAC 40 leading gains after French Prime Minister Lecornu survived two no-confidence votes after announcing plans to suspend a
contentious pension law. Food & Beverage sector leads gains, while Insurance underperforms.  Nestlé shares surged as much 8.2% after the food maker posted a stronger-than-expected increase in quarterly sales and announced plans to slash 16,000 jobs. Nordea
Bank shares rose as much as 4.1% in Helsinki, reaching a record high, after the lender reported solid earnings and announced a buy back. CCC fell as much a 9.4% after Ningi Research issued a short report suggesting the Polish footwear retailer’s turnaround
is a falsely engineered “illusion.” Whitbread shares slid as much as 10% after the budget hotel operator flagged higher-than-expected cost inflation in the UK and trimmed profit guidance for its Germany business. Stoxx 600 +0.3%, DAX is flat, CAC +0.9%, FTSE
100 -0.3%. Food & Bev +2.8%, Defense +1.2%, Chemicals +0.9%. Insurance -1.2%, Media -0.5%. 

Shares in Asia advanced, as South Korea and Taiwan led regional winners with Australia and Japan not far behind. Hang Seng Tech Index falls more than 1%. The MSCI Asia
Pacific Index rose 0.9% for its biggest two-day gain since April. TSMC firmed before the company announced third-quarter earnings that beat analyst estimates. TSMC’s results underscored how leading chipmakers stand to be among the biggest winners from an AI
investment boom that’s expected to top $1 trillion in the coming years.  Korea’s Kospi surged to a fresh record as hopes for a trade pact drove exporters higher. US Treasury Secretary Bessent expects some outcome from negotiations “in the next 10 days,” according
to Yonhap News. Meanwhile, executives from Samsung, Hyundai and other Korean firms may meet with President Trump later this week, according to Korea Economic Daily. Australian stocks climbed to a record after unemployment jumped more than expected, strengthening
the case for a rate cut. Kospi +2.5%, Taiwan +1.4%, Nikkei 225 +1.3%, Sensex +1%, Indonesia +0.9%, ASX 200 +0.9%, Vietnam +0.5%, CSI 300 +0.25%. Philippines was flat, Hang Seng Index -0.1%, Singapore -0.3%, Hang Seng Tech -1.2%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are slightly richer across a flat curve. 10-year yield eases fractionally near 4.015%.  Focal points of US session include several Fed speakers and potential
for more corporate bond offerings by big banks. IG dollar issuance slate includes two items so far. With all six big Wall Street banks having reported 3Q results, additional bond offerings are anticipated to follow those from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan over
previous two days.

 

METALS: 

Gold soared to as high as $4,247 an ounce, taking gains this year to more than 60% as trade frictions and expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts lured
buyers. Traders are piling into wagers on at least one outsized US rate cut by year-end, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled this week the central bank is on track to deliver another quarter-point reduction later this month. Spot gold +0.9%, Silver +0.1%,
Copper futures -1.6%

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices rose, with Brent crude futures firmer near $62.50 after President Trump said that India’s Modi vowed to stop buying Russian oil. A halt to India’s Russian
oil imports could boost demand for supplies from elsewhere. Russia is India’s top supplier, accounting for about one-third of its oil imports. India said today that its two main goals were to ensure stable energy prices and secure supply, making no reference
to Trump’s comments. Russia’s energy minister said Russian refineries will postpone planned maintenance to saturate the market on Wednesday, as Ukraine attacked the Saratov refinery. US crude inventories rose by 7.4 million barrels last week, the API reported.
That would be the biggest gain since late July if confirmed by the EIA today. WTI +0.9%, Brent +0.8%, US Nat Gas +1%, RBOB +0.5%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar slips as Fed easing bets and trade tensions mount. The euro inched higher and is headed for a third daily advance as French Prime
Minister Lecornu survived the first of two no-confidence votes. Aussie dollar weakened as AUD 3-year yield drops almost 10 bps after unemployment jumps to a four-year high. The yen is weaker even after Bank of Japan Board Member Naoki Tamura called for raising
interest rates due to increasing upside inflation risks. Tamura said a weak yen intensifies upside risks for inflation and the policy interest rate is still far away from the neutral interest rate. US$ Index -0.2%, GBPUSD +0.3%, EURUSD +0.05%, USDJPY +0.15%,
AUDUSD -0.1%, NZDUSD +0.25%, USDCHF +0.2%, USDCAD +0.05%, USDSEK -0.3%, USDNOK -0.25%.

 

 

Bitcoin +0.5%, Ethereum +2.5%.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • ASML (ASML NA) ADRs Raised to Buy at Fubon; PT $1,155
    • Goeasy (GSY CN) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
    • Las Vegas Sands (LVS) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan
    • PPG Industries (PPG) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $112
    • Sea Ltd (SE) ADRs Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $215
    • T-Mobile (TMUS) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $260
    • TKO (TKO) Raised to Buy at Seaport Global Securities
    • TrueCar (TRUE) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan
  • Downgrades
    • Astria Therapeutics Inc (ATXS) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
    • Braskem (BRKM5 BZ) ADRs Cut to Underperform at Grupo Santander; PT $2.80
    • Cricut (CRCT) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $4.75
    • First Horizon (FHN) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $20
    • Fiserv (FI) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank
    • Kering (KER FP) ADRs Cut to Sell at Berenberg; PT $18.50
    • Lithium Americas (LAC CN) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
    • Lululemon (LULU) Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein
    • LVMH (MC FP) ADRs Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT $134
    • Molina (MOH) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen
    • Unity Software (U) Cut to Neutral at Arete; PT $36
    • Verisk (VRSK) Cut to Sell at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $220
    • Xometry (XMTR) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $49
  • Initiations
    • American Electric Power (AEP) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $133
    • American Water (AWK) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT $155
    • Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) Rated New Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Atmos Energy (ATO) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT $185
    • Ball (BALL) Rated New Market Perform at Raymond James
    • BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $90
    • BlackRock (BLK) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
    • Celestica (CLS CN) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT C$477.09
    • Cidara (CDTX) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $190
    • Climb Bio Inc (CLYM) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Cogent Biosciences Inc (COGT) Rated New Hold at Stifel; PT $16
    • Crown Holdings (CCK) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $110
    • Digital Realty (DLR) Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
    • Duke Energy (DUK) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $143
    • Edison International (EIX) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $71
    • Equinix (EQIX) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $950
    • Erasca (ERAS) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $4
    • Eskay Mining (ESK CN) Reinstated Buy at Fundamental Research; PT C$1.21
    • Eversource (ES) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT $76
    • Exelon (EXC) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT $49
    • FG Nexus (FGNX) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $8
    • Gartner (IT) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $300
    • Getty Realty (GTY) Rated New Buy at Janney Montgomery; PT $30
    • Kindly MD (NAKA) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $2
    • MDU Resources (MDU) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT $20
    • NextEra Energy (NEE) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $98
    • PG&E (PCG) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $21
    • Pinnacle West Capital (PNW) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT $97
    • PSEG (PEG) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $93
    • Ramaco (METC) Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $63
    • Revolution Medicines (RVMD) Resumed Buy at Stifel; PT $85
    • Revvity (RVTY) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim
    • Rocket Lab (RKLB) Rated New Outperform at Baird
    • Sequans (SQNS) ADRs Reinstated Buy at B Riley; PT $13
    • Sharplink Gaming (SBET) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $50
      • Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $32
    • Southern Co (SO) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $112
    • Toast (TOST) Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $45
    • Vistra Corp (VST) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $250
    • Vtex (VTEX) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $5.30
    • WEC Energy (WEC) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT $125
    • Wells Fargo (WFC) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
    • Xcel Energy (XEL) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $93

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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