Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on October 20, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  10:00ET Leading Index Report Delayed by Government Shutdown

Highlights and News:  

  • Japan’s LDP reaches coalition deal to set up Takaichi as premier
  • President Trump listed rare earths, fentanyl and soybeans as the top issues with China
  • The US and China will hold talks later this week in Malaysia
  • Israel says Gaza truce resumes after deadly clashes with Hamas
  • Trump pushed Zelenskiy to cede territory to Moscow, declined to send Tomahawks, sources say
  • China’s Biggest Political Meeting of the Year This Week
  • Toronto beat the Mariners 6-2 to force a Game 7 in the ALCS

 

Global stocks rallied as investors welcomed Japan’s coalition deal and data indicating China’s economy was holding up against US trade pressures, while Trump appeared
to ease tensions with China in anticipation of upcoming trade discussions. Data showed China’s economy grew 1.1% in the third quarter, beating forecasts, while industrial output also beat with a rise of 6.5%, helping to allay fears about world growth as Beijing
and Washington haggle over trade. China’s National Bureau of Statistics said a full-year target of about 5% economic growth was achievable. Trump said he wanted China to stop with the fentanyl and to resume soybean purchases, and that he didn’t want them to
play the rare earth game with the US. The US and China will hold talks later this week in Malaysia. Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped to a record high on news the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party have agreed to form a coalition government, setting
the stage for Sanae Takaichi, who is viewed as pro-stimulus, to become prime minister. Israel said it had resumed a truce with Hamas in Gaza after heavy fighting over the weekend, with both sides accusing each other of breaching a deal brokered by President
Trump.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures firm with investors setting aside jitters about US regional banks for now, with optimism buoyed by Trump’s comments that the US will “be fine” with China ahead of trade
talks between the two sides. Trump laid out his priorities for trade with China and said that his threatened 100% tariff on Chinese goods was “not sustainable,” though “it could stand.” It’s going to be a busy week for earnings, with Tesla, Netflix and General
Motors among companies reporting. JPMorgan strategists expect positive surprises this earnings season, with the Mag 7 projected to grow earnings by 15% in 3Q and the remaining S&P 500 companies by 4%. Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson said that there needs to
be follow through on a US-China deal and stability in EPS revisions to clear the risk of a further correction in stocks. In corporate news, Amazon Web Services said its cloud service had recovered after a widespread disruption degraded operations at customers
including government agencies, AI companies and financial platforms. Sales of Apple’s latest generation of iPhones are off to a fast start, with its most basic model surging in popularity.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.4%, Russell 2000 +0.8%, DJI +0.2%.

In pre-market trading, Celcuity (CELC) is up 46% after the biotechnology company said it has successfully recruited enough breast-cancer patients with the PIK3CA mutation
to complete Phase 3 clinical trials of a novel treatment that incorporates the drug gedatolisib. Cooper Cos. (COO) shares climb 4% after the Wall Street Journal reported that activist investor Jana Partners has built a stake in the medical device company and
plans to push for strategic alternatives. Exelixis (EXEL) drops 11% after the drugmaker gave data from two separate late-stage cancer trials. Hologic (HOLX) climbs 5% as Blackstone and TPG are in advanced negotiations to acquire the company. Olema Pharmaceuticals
(OLMA) tumbles 28% after the drug developer gave data from an early-mid stage breast cancer trial, that Oppenheimer says is overshadowed by disappointing results from peer developer, Roche. Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) rises 15% after US Secretary of Energy
Chris Wright made an X post Friday night supporting the company’s effort to restart one of its California oil projects that is awaiting state approval.

European gauges rise as signs of easing global trade frictions helped boost broader risk sentiment. The CAC 40 underperforms as a sharp drop in BNP Paribas shares weighs
on the index. BNP Paribas fell as much as 8.8% after the bank lost a class action suit alleging it helped finance Sudan genocide. European defense stocks are outperforming as tensions rise in the Middle East. Kering shares rise as much as 5.5% after the Gucci
owner agreed to sell its beauty division to L’Oreal SA. Siltronic jumped as much as 11% after the manufacturer of silicon wafers was upgraded at Jefferies. B&M European Value Retail plunged as much as 20% to hit an all-time low, after the retailer cut its
guidance and said its CEO is stepping down.  Stoxx 600 +0.6%, DAX +1.2%, CAC -0.05%, FTSE 100 +0.4%. Defense +2.6%, Industrial Goods +1.5%, Technology +1.3%. Media -0.9%, Food & Bev -0.25%.

Shares in Asia advanced, lifted by hopes for policy support from a key political meeting this week in China and easing trade tensions. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained
1.9% for a record close, largely propelled by shares of TSMC and Tencent. Japan’s benchmarks were among the region’s best performers on expectations that stimulus advocate Sanae Takaichi will become the country’s first female prime minister. Stocks in Hong
Kong and China also rallied as the so-called Fourth Plenum, a four-day gathering that helps shape China’s long-term policy, kicked off in Beijing. Mainland shares rose even as data showed the weakest growth pace in a year, but better than expectations. Singapore
and Malaysia markets were closed for a holiday. Vietnamese stocks plunged by the most in six months amid concerns over corporate bond issuance violations. Shares of Australian rare earths miners rise ahead of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s scheduled meeting
with President Trump. Nikkei 225 +3.4%, Hang Seng Tech +3%, Hang Seng Index +2.4%, Indonesia +2.2%, Kospi +1.8%, Taiwan +1.4%, CSI 300 +0.5%, Sensex +0.5%, ASX 200 +0.4%. Philippines -0.1%, Vietnam -5.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are little changed on the day, with yields across the curve within a basis point of Friday’s closing levels. In Europe, French bonds underperform after
S&P Global Ratings downgraded the nation’s sovereign credit score in an unscheduled move late Friday. Today’s session has no major scheduled events. Treasury auctions later this week include 20-year bond reopening Wednesday and 5-year TIPS new issue Thursday. 
US 10-year yield is hovering around 4.00% and the curve is flatter by half a bip.  

 

METALS: 

Gold edges higher, while investors awaited cues from upcoming US-China trade talks. Silver is recovering slightly after falling 4.4% on Friday after hitting a record
high of $54.47 earlier that day. The US CPI data, which was delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown, will be released on Friday, days before the Fed’s October 28–29 policy meeting. It is expected to show that core inflation held at 3.1% in September.
The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point again. Copper edged higher after Trump sought to ease trade tensions with China, while Beijing signaled its economy can meet growth targets for this year. Spot gold +0.7%, Silver
+0.4%, Copper futures +0.5%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices slipped, pressured by worries over a global glut. Oil traders’ concerns have shifted from under-supply to over-supply, the futures contract structure of
the global benchmark Brent showed. The six-month spread for Brent shows contracts for earlier loading are trading below those for later loading, a structure known as contango. Kazakhstan’s energy ministry said a drone attack on Russia’s Orenburg gas-processing
plant may affect oil production. Oil at sea climbs to new high on rising supply, longer voyages. The amount of crude being hauled across the world’s oceans continues to increase, as rising production and greater distances between exporters and importers keeps
cargoes at sea for longer. WTI -0.7%, Brent -0.7%, US Nat Gas +6.6%, RBOB -0.4%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar inches higher while the yen reversed losses as traders added to hawkish BOJ wagers. BOJ board member Hajime Takata said the time is
ripe for raising the bank’s policy interest rate. The euro slipped from early highs while French bonds declined after S&P Global Ratings downgraded its sovereign credit score. New Zealand Dollar fluctuated after data showed inflation accelerated in the third
quarter, pushing to the top of the Reserve Bank’s 1%-3% target band. US$ Index +0.15%, GBPUSD -0.15%, EURUSD +0.03%, USDJPY +0.05%, AUDUSD -0.1%, NZDUSD +0.02%, USDCHF -0.15%, USDCAD +0.15%, USDSEK -0.25%, USDNOK +0.05%.

 

 

Bitcoin +1.9%, Ethereum +0.6%.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Ally Financial (ALLY) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $50
    • Apollo Commercial (ARI) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $10.50
    • Apple (AAPL) Raised to Buy at Loop Capital; PT $315
    • Cascades (CAS CN) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT C$13
    • Darden (DRI) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $225
    • Digital Realty (DLR) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $194
    • Gaming and Leisure (GLPI) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $54
    • Healthcare Realty Trust (HR) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo
    • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Raised to Outperform at Daiwa; PT $203
    • Karooooo (KARO) Raised to Buy at SBG Securities; PT $61
    • KLA Corp (KLAC) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $1,200
    • Lululemon (LULU) Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $146
    • Marsh McLennan (MMC) Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $195
    • Sempra (SRE) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $101
    • SLB (SLB) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $42
    • Triumph Financial Inc (TFIN) Raised to Buy at B Riley; PT $70
    • Wesdome Gold Mines (WDO CN) Raised to Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$28
  • Downgrades
    • Astera Labs (ALAB) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $155
    • ERO Copper (ERO CN) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT C$34
    • Gibson Energy (GEI CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$25
    • Gildan Activewear (GIL CN) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT C$88.40
    • KKR Real Estate Finance (KREF) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $9
    • Lumentum (LITE) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $165
    • Marvell Technology (MRVL) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $80
    • NGEx Minerals (NGEX CN) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT C$23
    • Progressive (PGR) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $214
    • Qorvo (QRVO) Cut to Underperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $75
    • Rexford Industrial (REXR) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Rivian (RIVN) Cut to Underperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $10
    • Skyworks (SWKS) Cut to Underperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $60
    • Texas Instruments (TXN) Cut to Underperform at Mizuho Securities
    • TrueCar (TRUE) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
  • Initiations
    • Allient Inc (ALNT) Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $60
    • Allot Ltd (ALLT) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $13
    • American Resources (AREC) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • AvePoint (AVPT) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $18.30
    • Brenntag (BNR GR) ADRs Reinstated Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $12.80
    • Cava Group (CAVA) Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $74
    • Garrett Motion (GTX) Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $14
    • GeneDx Holdings Corp (WGS) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $155
    • IMCD (IMCD NA) ADRs Reinstated Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $72.50
    • Kodiak AI (KDK) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $13
    • NioCorp Developments (NB) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Royalty Management Holding (RMCO) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • SailPoint (SAIL) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $27
    • Sila Realty Trust (SILA) Rated New Peerperform at Wolfe
    • SPX Technologies (SPXC) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $209
    • Tempus AI (TEM) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $110
    • Teradyne (TER) Rated New Neutral at President Capital Management
    • United States Antimony Corp (UAMY) US Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • USA Rare Earth (USAR) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Veracyte (VCYT) Rated New Hold at Canaccord; PT $40
    • WillScot Holdings (WSC) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $28

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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