Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on October 21, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity, Canada Sept. CPI

Highlights and News:  

  • Takaichi Wins Vote to Be Japan’s First Female PM
  • US-CANADA TRADE DEAL COULD GET SIGNED AT APEC SUMMIT: GLOBE
  • Israeli military official says Hamas still has between 10,000 and 20,000 commandos at its disposal
  • Gold tumbles over 5%
  • Blue Jays are headed to the World Series for the first time since 1993

 

Global stocks wavered as investors weighed trade tensions and the impact of upcoming US inflation data. Investors are awaiting delayed US inflation data due Friday
for clues on the health of the economy and the Federal Reserve’s rate path, with the UK set to report inflation numbers on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the BOE has begun reaching out to financial institutions about conducting stress tests on the private credit market.
Javier Milei is expected to reshuffle his cabinet after the country’s midterm elections Sunday. “Everything is weird,” said Bobby Molavi, head of EMEA execution services at Goldman Sachs, adding that historical correlations between bonds, equities and gold
are “thrown out the window.”  All-time highs are everywhere, and classic asset class correlations are breaking down as stocks continue to climb every “wall of worry,” he wrote.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures steadied following the S&P 500’s biggest two-day gain since June, as the third-quarter earnings season gets into full swing with about 85% of US firms beating profit
estimates so far. Gold and silver companies are tumbling as the precious metals slipped from their latest records as global trade tensions ease. GM raised its full-year outlook and posted better-than-expected 3Q results after a jump in SUV and truck sales.
GE raised its full-year outlook for a second straight quarter on strong air-travel demand. Elevance Health shares gained after the health insurer posted third-quarter profit that was ahead of expectations.  

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.05%, Nasdaq +0.05%, Russell 2000 -0.1%, DJI +0.05%.

In pre-market trading, Coca-Cola Co. (KO) climbs 2% after posting third-quarter sales growth that beat.   Core Scientific (CORZ) is up 2% after a key proxy adviser
said a takeover bid by CoreWeave Inc. undervalues the data center company. Crown Holdings (CCK) gains 8% after the packaging products company boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year. Elevance (ELV) gains 4% after the health insurer
posted third-quarter profit that was ahead of expectations. Fluor (FLR) rises 5% after the Wall Street Journal reported that activist investor Starboard Value has amassed a nearly 5% stake. General Electric (GE) is 1% higher after the company raised its full-year
outlook. Halliburton (HAL) rises 3% after the energy service company reported third-quarter revenue that beat. NuScale Power Corp. (SMR) falls 4% after two analysts downgraded the nuclear small modular reactor company over concerns about its ENTRA1 deal. Philip
Morris (PM), maker of oral pouch product Zyn, rises 3% after narrowing its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year. RTX Corp. (RTX) rises 5% after the company boosted its full-year profit outlook and reported third-quarter earnings that topped
estimates. Zions (ZION) gains 1% after saying its profit topped estimates despite a $50 million loss from an alleged fraud.

European gauges ticked up as investors sifted through a wave of corporate earnings. French stocks rose, with the CAC 40 above the May 2024 record closing high as strong
corporate earnings offset concerns about the country’s political turmoil and its credit outlook. Miners fell after prices of gold and silver slumped due to the stronger dollar. Among individual movers in Europe, Eurofins Scientific SE dropped as much as 9%
after third-quarter results. Edenred SE jumped 15%, the most on record, after the digital platform for services and payments reported better revenue growth for the third quarter. Assa Abloy AB gained over 3% after the Swedish lock and entrance systems group
reported reassuring results. ECB chief economist Philip Lane issued a stark warning for euro zone banks today, saying they could come under pressure in a scenario in which dollar funding dries up. Stoxx 600 +0.1%, DAX +0.1%, CAC +0.4%, FTSE 100 +0.3%. Real
Estate +0.9%, Defense +0.8%, Insurance +0.6%. Basic Resources -0.7%, Chemicals -0.4%. 

Shares in Asia were broadly higher, led by an extended rally in Chinese equities on optimism over a trade deal with the US. Trump said he expects the US to have a “really
fair and really great trade deal” with China. Meanwhile, the Fourth Plenum underway in Beijing is being monitored for potential policy boosts. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index and South Korea’s Kospi closed at new highs, even after erasing a bulk of their earlier
gains. Japan’s Nikkei 225 pared earlier gains after testing the symbolically important 50,000 level as conservative lawmaker Sanae Takaichi became the country’s first female prime minister. Analyst expectations are that Takaichi will maintain an expansionary
fiscal policy and keep interest rates low. The Kospi rose for a fifth day, helped by strong trade data and expectations for a lower dividend-related tax rate. Indonesia +1.8%, Vietnam +1.6%, CSI 300 +1.5%, Singapore +1.2%, ASX 200 +0.7%, Hang Seng Index +0.6%,
Nikkei 225 +0.3%, Kospi +0.2%, Taiwan +0.2%, Sensex +0.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries little changed, keeping yields within 1bp of Monday’s closing levels, amid similar price action in European bonds. 10-year yield trades around 3.97% as
falling oil prices eased concern about inflation before Friday’s consumer-price data announcement. US curve is slightly flatter on the day. BlackRock and State Street funds are changing their investment rules to avoid forced sales of French bonds, sources
said, as downgrades threaten to push the country below the strict double-A credit rating criteria.

 

METALS: 

Gold and silver tumbled from recent highs as the dollar strengthened and US-China tensions ease. Bullion plunged after hitting a fresh peak of $4,381.52 an ounce
on Monday. Silver plummeted as much as 6.2%. Increased silver flows from the US and China to London’s spot market have eased liquidity constraints in the world’s largest over-the-counter precious metals hub, according to analysts. Investors’ focus is now on
the US consumer price index data, due on Friday. The data is expected to show a 3.1% year-over-year increase for September, reinforcing market expectations for the Fed to lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting next week. Copper slid. BHP, the
world’s biggest miner, boosted output of copper by 4% in its first quarter, with production rising due to a ramp up at the Escondida project in Chile. Spot gold -5%, Silver -5%, Copper futures -0.9%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices firmed as traders weighed concerns about oversupply and risks to demand, along with the trade dispute between the US and China. Prices declined to their
lowest since early May on Monday due to worries about oversupply and sluggish economic growth stemming from heightened US-China trade tensions. Goldman strategists said the long-anticipated global surplus “has started to show.” Both WTI and Brent have moved
into contango market structures, with spot prices lower than those for future delivery, signaling ample near-term supply and weakening demand.  WTI +0.7%, Brent +0.6%, US Nat Gas +1.1%, RBOB +0.3%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar advanced against most major peers while the yen dropped after Sanae Takaichi won a parliamentary vote to become prime minister, opening
the way for more fiscal spending. BOJ officials see no urgency to hike rates next week, sources said. The Swiss franc is closing in on its highest levels in a decade against the euro due to haven demand in global markets. US$ Index +0.3%, GBPUSD -0.2%, EURUSD
-0.3%, USDJPY +0.8%, AUDUSD -0.35%, NZDUSD -0.4%, USDCHF +0.3%, USDCAD +0.05%, USDSEK -0.05%, USDNOK -0.05%.

 

 

Bitcoin -2.3%, Ethereum -2.7%. Coinbase Global has struck a roughly $375 million deal to acquire Echo, a platform that allows crypto companies to quickly raise capital
directly on the blockchain. Echo’s platform facilitates fundraising and investing by letting crypto users participate in both private and public token sales: WSJ

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • American Express (AXP) Raised to Hold at DZ Bank; PT $340
    • Capri Holdings (CPRI) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $25
    • Claritev Corp (CTEV) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $55
    • Exelixis (EXEL) Raised to Outperform at Leerink; PT $48
    • First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) Raised to Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$38
    • Independent Bank Corp (INDB) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $83
    • Intact Financial (IFC CN) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT C$317
    • Liberty Energy (LBRT) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $21
    • NEXTracker (NXT) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $114
    • PepsiCo (PEP) Raised to Buy at DZ Bank; PT $167
    • PrairieSky Royalty (PSK CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank
    • Replimune (REPL) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $13
      • Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $11
    • Royal Gold (RGLD) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $240
    • Sunrun (RUN) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $26
    • Truist Financial (TFC) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $55
  • Downgrades
    • Apple (AAPL) Cut to Reduce at Phillip Secs; PT $200
    • Canadian Solar (CSIQ) Cut to Sell at Citi; PT $11
    • Cemex (CEMEXCPO MM) ADRs Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $11.10
    • Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Cut to Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $11
    • ERO Copper (ERO CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$33
      • Cut to Hold at Stifel Canada; PT C$37
    • Goldman Sachs (GS) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $750
    • Neuphoria Therapeutics (NEUP) Cut to Neutral at Lucid Capital Markets
    • NuScale Power (SMR) Cut to Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $25
      • Cut to Sell at Citi; PT $37.50
    • Planet Labs (PL) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
    • Tempus AI (TEM) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $88
    • Verizon (VZ) Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $44
  • Initiations
    • Acadia Pharma (ACAD) Reinstated Buy at Citi; PT $33
    • Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities
    • Apple (AAPL) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
    • Bullish (BLSH) Rated New Hold at Clear Street; PT $60
    • Candel Therapeutics (CADL) Rated New Outperform at LifeSci Capital
    • Carlisle (CSL) Rated New Hold at Vertical Research; PT $356
    • Celldex (CLDX) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $48
    • Ceribell (CBLL) Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $19
    • Circle Internet (CRCL) Rated New Hold at Clear Street; PT $135
    • Deutsche Telekom (DTE GR) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $43
    • Fortune Brands (FBIN) Rated New Hold at Vertical Research; PT $52
    • Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) Rated New Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • Hyliion (HYLN) Rated New Buy at Johnson Rice; PT $5
    • iBio (IBIO) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $5
    • Installed Building (IBP) Rated New Sell at Vertical Research
    • James Hardie (JHX AU) Rated New Hold at Vertical Research; PT $23.55
    • KPN (KPN NA) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $5.50
    • Kyivstar Group (KYIV) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $17
    • Kymera (KYMR) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $81
    • Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) Reinstated Buy at Vertical Research
    • MARA Holdings (MARA) Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim
    • Masco (MAS) Rated New Hold at Vertical Research; PT $74
    • MeiraGTx (MGTX) Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $29
    • Mohawk Industries (MHK) Rated New Buy at Vertical Research; PT $154
    • Neurocrine Bio (NBIX) Reinstated Buy at Citi; PT $175
    • Nurix (NRIX) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $24
    • NuScale Power (SMR) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $55
    • Orange (ORA FP) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $19.50
    • Owens Corning (OC) Rated New Hold at Vertical Research; PT $141
    • Pony AI (PONY) ADRs Rated New Buy at China Merchants; PT $24
    • QXO (QXO) Rated New Buy at Vertical Research; PT $30
    • Revolution Medicines (RVMD) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities
    • Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLSV) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $70
    • Sui Group (SUIG) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $5
    • Sunrise Communications (SUNN SW) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane
    • Swisscom (SCMN SW) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $83
    • Taysha Gene (TSHA) Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $13
    • Telefonica (TEF SM) ADRs Rated New Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $4.20
    • Telenor (TEL NO) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $19
    • TopBuild (BLD) Rated New Buy at Vertical Research; PT $517.96
    • Trex (TREX) Rated New Buy at Vertical Research; PT $62.84
    • Viant (DSP) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $14.50
    • Vodafone (VOD LN) ADRs Rated New Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $8
    • WaterBridge Infrastructure (WBI) US Rated New Neutral at Janney Montgomery; PT $24
    • Zoomd Technologies Ltd (ZOMD CN) Rated New Outperform at ATB Capital

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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