Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on October 22, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  1:00ET $13 billion 20-year bond reopening; 4:00ET Trump meets NATO’s Mark Rutte

Highlights and News:  

  • China’s imports of US soybeans fell to zero last month for the first time since 2018
  • Krispy Kreme among those joining Beyond Meat in the retail trader frenzy today
  • Meta’s massive $27B “Hyperion” data center project is the largest private-debt offering ever
  • US Government Shutdown Is Now Second Longest in History
  • Trump said he doesn’t want “a wasted meeting” with Putin
  • EU Prepares Trade Options to Counter China Rare Earth Curbs
  • US government signals strategic reserve buying.
  • Cars are being repossessed at the highest rate since the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009

 

Global stocks struggled for direction as earnings reports and corporate updates painted a mixed picture of corporate profitability amid worries over trade and geopolitical
risks. Sentiment was dented after Trump cast doubt on whether or not he will meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping later this month. However, Trump also said he was expecting “to do well” in negotiations with China. Trump is traveling in the next several days
to Japan and South Korea to finalize the terms of investments from those countries as part of an agreement to minimize tariff rates. The US is close to a deal with New Delhi that would cut tariffs on Indian goods to 15%–16% from 50%, Mint reported. Meanwhile,
geopolitical tensions have resurfaced. Russia unleashed multiple drone and missile strikes on Ukraine as the latest peace efforts by President Trump seem to be floundering.

 

EQUITIES: 

 US equity futures are mixed as investors look to earnings for direction ahead of US-China trade talks and Friday’s delayed inflation data. Meme stocks are back, with Krispy Kreme among
those joining Beyond Meat in the retail trader frenzy today. Netflix fell in post-market trading after reporting third-quarter results it said were hurt by a tax dispute with Brazil. Texas Instruments slumped on an underwhelming outlook. Alphabet gained after
a report that it is in talks with Anthropic PBC about a deal for cloud computing services valued in the high tens of billions of dollars. Beyond Meat shares doubled in premarket trading, boosting its four-day rally to almost 1,300%. The National Hockey League
has reached licensing agreements with prediction-market startups Kalshi and Polymarket, boosting their efforts to disrupt traditional sportsbook operators such as DraftKings and FanDuel. The US government shutdown, now in its 22nd day, has become the second-longest
in history. With President Trump expected to leave later this week for a trip to Asia, lawmakers say they see a real possibility the closure could extend into November. 

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.05%, Nasdaq -0.15%, Russell 2000 -0.4%, DJI -0.05%.

In pre-market trading, Alphabet (GOOGL) rises 1.8% as Anthropic is in discussions with Google about a deal that would provide the artificial intelligence company with
additional computing power. Alector (ALEC) tumbles 50% after the drug developer said a late-stage trial of its lead asset as an investigative treatment for dementia failed to meet a primary endpoint. Avadel Pharmaceuticals (AVDL) gains 4% after Alkermes agreed
to buy the company for up to $20 per share. Beyond Meat (BYND) soars 85%, boosting its four-day rally to almost 1,300%, in an echo of the meme-stock frenzies that periodically roil the market. The rally may have been powered by short covering and the company’s
announcement of increased availability of its products at Walmart stores. DraftKings (DKNG) climbs 3% after the sports betting company said it acquired predictions platform Railbird. Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) rallies 16% after the robotic-surgery company boosted
its worldwide da Vinci procedure growth forecast for the full year. Manhattan Associates (MANH) falls 7% after the supply-chain software company posted a key metric — “remaining performance obligations” — for the third quarter that fell short of estimates.
Mattel (MAT) is down 5% after the company reported third-quarter sales and earnings that missed analysts’ estimates. Netflix (NFLX) falls 7% after the streaming-video company reported third-quarter results it said were hurt by a tax dispute with Brazil. Texas
Instruments (TXN) drops 7% after the chipmaker gave an outlook that is weaker than expected. Vertiv Holdings (VRT) is up 6% after the company boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year. Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) gains 2% after saying
it’s considering a possible sale of the company after receiving unsolicited interest from multiple parties. Netflix and Comcast are weighing bids for parts of the media and entertainment company, according to sources.

 

 

Shares in Asia were mixed, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropping as much as 0.6% before paring losses to -0.1%. Technology shares were the biggest drag as investors
rushed to lock in gains. Chipmakers and other AI-related stocks in Asia, including SoftBank, declined after Texas Instruments presented a disappointing outlook. Precious-metal stocks also tumbled after gold and silver posted their steepest selloffs in years.
Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stocks fell despite a bullish call from Goldman Sachs Group, which predicted key stock gauges may gain 30% by the end of 2027. South Korea’s Kospi led gainers in the region, with Japanese shares advancing as well. Japan’s exports
grew 4.2% in September from a year earlier, boosted by robust shipments to Asia that offset a 13% decline to the US. Auto shipments plunged 24%. Kospi +1.6%, Vietnam +0.9%, Thailand +0.9%, Topix +0.5%, Singapore +0.3%. CSI 300 -0.3%, Taiwan -0.4%, ASX 200
-0.7%, Hang Seng Index -0.9%, Philippines -1%, Indonesia -1%, Hang Seng Tech -1.4%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields are marginally richer on the day with 10-year yield around 3.95% and the curve a bit flatter. Treasury’s $13 billion 20-year bond reopening today,
first coupon auction in more than a week, has WI yield near 4.510%, about 10bp richer than last month’s 20-year sale. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of offerings but is expected to maintain a slower tempo with earnings blackouts in effect.

 

METALS: 

Gold and silver extended losses in a choppy session after suffering the worst rout in over 12 years on Tuesday. Spot gold slid below $4,040 an ounce as it works off
its extremely overbought condition. Citigroup cut its overweight gold recommendation, citing concerns about stretched positioning. The bank expects further consolidation around $4,000 an ounce in the coming weeks. Investors are awaiting the US Consumer Price
Index report, due on Friday, which could help guide the Fed’s interest rate policy. Spot gold -2%, Silver -1.3%, Copper futures ~flat.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil gained on a report that the US and India are nearing a trade deal that may see India gradually reducing imports of Russian crude. WTI gains over 2% on news that
the US Department of Energy is seeking to purchase approximately 1 million barrels for the strategic petroleum reserve. The US SPR stands at 408 million barrels, up from the low of 347 million barrels in 2023, but still well below the 656m barrels held in
2020. WTI +2.1%, Brent +2%, US Nat Gas +0.3%, RBOB +1.8%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, sterling led losses in the Group-of-10 currencies after UK inflation unexpectedly held steady last month, with consumer prices rising 3.8% from
a year earlier. Traders added to bets on Bank of England interest-rate rate cuts. The yen firmed as Japan’s exports rose for the first time in five months with shipments of chips and electronic parts advancing. FX volatility remains quiet as focus turns to
US CPI data on Friday. US$ Index +0.15%, GBPUSD -0.4%, EURUSD -0.15%, USDJPY -0.1%, AUDUSD -0.05%, NZDUSD -0.02%, USDCHF is flat, USDCAD +0.05%, USDSEK +0.05%, USDNOK -0.1%.

 

 

Bitcoin -3%, Ethereum -3.3%.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • 3M Co (MMM) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $160
    • Badger Meter (BMI) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $215
    • Banco Macro (BMA AR) ADRs Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $79
    • BioAge Labs (BIOA) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $10
    • Eldorado Gold (ELD CN) Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT C$54
    • Flywire (FLYW) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $16
    • Franco-Nevada (FNV CN) Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT C$350
    • Galapagos (GLPG NA) ADRs Raised to Outperform at Leerink; PT $40
    • Halliburton (HAL) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $30
      • Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $31
    • HB Fuller (FUL) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $70
    • Hyatt (H) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $168
    • Kinetik (KNTK) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $45
    • Manhattan Associates (MANH) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
    • OR Royalties (OR CN) Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT C$65
    • Paccar (PCAR) Raised to Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Paramount Group (PGRE) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
    • Topgolf Callaway Brands (MODG) Raised to Buy at Texas Capital; PT $12
    • WEX (WEX) Raised to Buy at BofA
  • Downgrades
    • Advantage Energy Ltd (AAV CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank
    • Alector (ALEC) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
      • Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
      • Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $1.50
      • Cut to Hold at TD Cowen
      • Cut to Neutral at Cantor
    • Assai (ASAI3 BZ) ADRs Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $7.50
    • Bioceres Crop Solutions (BIOX) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
    • Commercial Metals (CMC) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $70
    • Franco-Nevada (FNV CN) Cut to Hold at Paradigm Capital; PT C$310
    • Gartner (IT) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $270
    • Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL AR) ADRs Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $46
    • Hologic (HOLX) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $78
      • Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • HP Inc. (HPQ) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan
    • NEXTracker (NXT) Cut to Neutral at Guggenheim
    • NuVista Energy (NVA CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank; PT C$20
    • OR Royalties (OR CN) Cut to Hold at Paradigm Capital; PT C$59.50
    • Stella-Jones (SJ CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$90
    • Supervielle (SUPV AR) ADRs Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $5
    • W R Berkley Corp (WRB) Cut to Underperform at BMO; PT $64
  • Initiations
    • Accenture (ACN) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $251
    • ADP (ADP) Rated New Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $288
    • Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $89
    • American Electric Power (AEP) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
    • AppLovin (APP) Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $705
    • Block (XYZ) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $91
    • Caterpillar (CAT) Rated New Sector Perform at RBC; PT $560
    • Chesapeake Utilities (CPK) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
    • Circle Internet (CRCL) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $160
    • Cognizant (CTSH) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $82
    • Deere (DE) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $542
    • Dell Technologies (DELL) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler
    • Dominion Energy (D) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
    • Duke Energy (DUK) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $150
    • Entergy (ETR) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $111
    • EPAM Systems (EPAM) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $185
    • Exelon (EXC) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
    • Fidelity National (FIS) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $81
    • First Solar (FSLR) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $286
    • Fiserv (FI) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $130
    • Global Payments (GPN) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $103
    • Globant (GLOB) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $61
    • H2O America (HTO) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
    • HP Enterprise (HPE) Rated New Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $24
    • Idacorp (IDA) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $157
    • Jack Henry (JKHY) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $161
    • Klarna (KLAR) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $45
    • Klaviyo (KVYO) Rated New Buy at Jefferies
    • Natural Grocers (NGVC) Rated New Buy at Northcoast; PT $54
    • NextEra Energy (NEE) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $98
    • NEXTracker (NXT) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $102
    • Northwest Natural (NWN) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $53
    • Paychex (PAYX) Rated New Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $128
    • Peoples Bancorp (PEBO) Reinstated Buy at DA Davidson; PT $33
    • Portland General (POR) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $52
    • PPL (PPL) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $44
    • PSEG (PEG) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $98
    • PureCycle (PCT) Rated New Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT $23
    • Ryman Hospitality (RHP) Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
    • Sagimet Biosciences (SGMT) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $29
    • Sempra (SRE) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $106
    • Shift4 Payments (FOUR) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $82
    • SkyWater Tech (SKYT) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $25
    • Southern Co (SO) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
    • Spire (SR) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $99
    • T1 Energy (TE) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $6
    • Toast (TOST) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $47
    • Ucore Rare Metals (UCU CN) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James
    • United Rentals (URI) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $1,152
    • Unity Software (U) Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $39
    • Vtex (VTEX) Rated New Outperform at Grupo Santander; PT $7
    • WEC Energy (WEC) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $136
    • Xcel Energy (XEL) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $96

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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