Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET CPI*; 9A;45ET S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, Composite PMI; 10:00ET
New Home Sales Report Delayed, U. of Mich. Sentiment; 11:00ET Kansas City Fed Services Activity

Highlights and News:  

• Trump Terminates Trade Talks With Canada Over Reagan Tariff Ad
• Oil Disruption Widens as China Pauses Some Russia Buys on Curbs
• Trump leaves tonight for a five-day trip to Malaysia, Japan and South Korea
• XI TO ATTEND TO ATTEND APEC MEETINGS: XINHUA
• Gold Set to Snap Nine-Week Winning Streak
• JPMorgan plans to allow institutional clients to use Bitcoin and Ether as collateral for loans
  
• Bears are only NFL team to score at least 21 points in every game and lead league with 16 takeaways

Global stocks edged higher amid increasing optimism that the upcoming meeting next week between Presidents Trump and Xi will ease trade tensions. A Chinese official
expressed confidence that both nations can resolve their concerns. Ahead of the sit-down, Trump said he wants to extend a pause on higher tariffs on Chinese goods in exchange for Xi resuming American soybean purchases, cracking down on fentanyl and backing
off restrictions on rare-earth exports, while keeping certain trade barriers he deems critical. Meanwhile, Trump said trade talks with Canada were terminated after a Canadian political advertisement used the recorded voice of late president Ronald Reagan saying
tariffs cause trade wars and economic disaster, calling the video ad fraudulent. “Based on their egregious behavior, ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are firm ahead of key inflation data. CPI probably held at 0.4% m/m in September in the government’s first major data release since the shutdown. The core measure is
expected to have remained steady at 3.1% y/y. Intel shares jumped premarket after the chipmaker returned to profitability and gave an upbeat revenue forecast. The Trump administration is pushing regulators to accelerate the process of allowing the data-center
sector to connect to power grids. Separately, banks are preparing a record $38 billion debt sale for Oracle-linked data centers.

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.5%, Russell 2000 +0.5%, DJI +0.1%.

In pre-market trading, Booz Allen (BAH) falls 8% after the defense contractor cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year. Deckers Outdoor (DECK)
falls 12% after the owner of the Ugg and Hoka brands forecast 2026 net sales below the average analyst estimate. Ford Motor Co. (F) climbs 4% after the company reported third-quarter results that included a beat on profit and as traders weigh a 50,000 unit
boost to pick-up truck production. HCA Healthcare (HCA) rises 2% after boosting its revenue forecast for the full year Intel (INTC) gains 7% after the chipmaker returned to profitability and gave a strong revenue forecast. Mohawk Industries (MHK) falls 4%
after the flooring manufacturer provided a disappointing fourth quarter earnings outlook. Newmont (NEM) is down 7% after the precious metals miner guided attributable gold production for 2026 that’s expected to be within the same guidance range provided for
2025. NEXTracker (NXT) is up 13% after the renewable energy equipment company reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that beat. Procter & Gamble (PG) climbs 2% after reporting better-than-expected sales for its latest quarter.

European gauges edged lower with real estate and miners leading declines, while travel and auto stocks outperform. Valeo gains over 8% after earnings beat. Lifco gains
as much as 11% after the Swedish industrial conglomerate reported better-than-expected third-quarter results. Saab gains as much as 7.8% after the Swedish defense firm boosted its full-year sales guidance. Kering shares drop as much as 3.6% as HSBC downgrades
the luxury-goods company following a strong rally. Bravida falls more than 12% after the Swedish building installations group reported its latest earnings. Data today showed euro zone business activity unexpectedly grew at a faster pace in October as companies
received new orders at the quickest rate in 2-1/2 years. It was the highest level since May 2024, as outperformance by Germany helped offset continued weakness in France. Stoxx 600 -0.1%, DAX -0.05%, CAC -0.5%, FTSE 100 +0.05%.  Real Estate -1.3%, Basic Resources
-0.7%, Banks -0.7%. Travel & Leisure +0.7%, Financial Services +0.6%, Autos +0.6%.

Shares in Asia were mixed to higher, as confirmation of a meeting next week between Trump and Xi Jinping boosted investor sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose
0.5%, ending a three-day losing streak. Hopes for a thaw in trade tensions are rising ahead of a planned meeting between Trump and Xi next Thursday on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Kospi led gains in the region with better
than 2% surge, shrugging off South Korean comments that differences remain with US over investment pledges. Chinese stocks got an extra lift from the nation’s renewed emphasis on technological self-reliance at a key political gathering this week. Chinese defense
stocks gain after the communique from the fourth plenum included goals such as strengthening national defense. Taiwan’s market was closed for a holiday. Kospi +2.5%, Hang Seng Tech +1.8%, Nikkei 225 +1.3%, CSI 300 +1.2%, Thailand +0.9%, Hang Seng Index +0.7%,
Singapore +0.1%. ASX 200 -0.1%, Vietnam -0.2%, Sensex -0.4%, Philippines -1.1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold small losses following Thursday’s sharp selloff triggered by jump in oil prices. European bonds underperform after most euro-zone PMI readings exceeded
estimates, with Germany’s services gauge the strongest since 2023. Focal point of US session is the delayed September CPI release. US yields remain within 1bp of Thursday’s closing levels, the 10-year just over 4% and the curve is flat. Into CPI data, Fed-dated
OIS, steady over recent weeks, almost fully price in 25bp rate cuts at the October and December policy meetings. Next week’s Treasury auctions are on an accelerated and compressed schedule before the Oct. 29 FOMC decision, beginning Monday with 2- and 5-year
notes sales and concluding with 7-year notes Tuesday.

METALS: 

Gold and silver fell, poised to break a nine-week winning streak as investors booked profits and signs of easing trade tensions between the US and China tempered
safe-haven demand ahead of a key US inflation report. The White House confirmed on Thursday that President Trump will meet President Xi Jinping next week during his Asia trip. Traders still anticipate the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis
points at its meeting next week. Gold has been working off its most overbought condition this week since August 2020. Spot gold -1.5%, Silver -1.6%, Copper futures -0.2%.

ENERGY:   

Oil is higher again after US sanctions on major Russian producers pushed prices up more than 5% Thursday and raised the prospect of supply disruptions. The US measures
come as the oil market faces a significant surplus, as oil stored on tankers reaches an all-time high and the International Energy Agency forecasts global supply will outstrip demand by nearly 4 million barrels per day next year. with the amount on tankers
at sea hitting a record and the IEA expecting world supply to exceed demand by almost 4 million barrels a day next year. Kuwait’s oil minister also said OPEC is prepared to increase production if demand requires it. Chinese state-owned companies including
Sinopec canceled some purchases of seaborne Russian crude after the US blacklisted Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC.  The Trump administration is preparing a proposal to open almost all US coastal waters to new offshore oil drilling. WTI +1%, Brent +0.8%, US Nat
Gas -0.7%, RBOB +0.5%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar steadied as investors braced for delayed inflation data that is unlikely to deter the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates
next week. The Canadian dollar eased a bit after Trump announced he’s terminating talks with Canada over an anti-tariff ad. The euro is steady after business activity in the euro zone grew at a faster pace than expected in October. Sterling a tad lower despite
stronger-than-expected retail sales that were boosted by demand for gold from online jewelers. The yen weakened to a two-week low, while earlier data showed Japan’s core consumer prices stayed above the central bank’s 2% target, keeping alive expectations
of a near-term rate hike. Japan’s Sanae Takaichi pledged to prioritize tackling inflation and bolstering defense, in her first address to parliament as PM. US$ Index +0.15%, GBPUSD -0.1%, EURUSD ~flat, USDJPY +0.2%, AUDUSD -0.2%, NZDUSD -0.15%, USDCHF +0.15%,
USDCAD +0.2%, USDSEK ~flat, USDNOK +0.3%.

Bitcoin +1.5%, Ethereum +3.2%. JPMorgan plans to allow institutional clients to use Bitcoin and Ether as collateral for loans.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Alliant Energy (LNT) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $79
• Appfolio (APPF) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $311
• Atai Life Sciences (ATAI) Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT $12
• Coinbase (COIN) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $404
• Commercial Metals (CMC) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $68
• EBay (EBAY) Raised to Market Outperform at Citizens
• FirstService (FSV CN) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $213
• Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
• Kodiak Sciences (KOD) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $24
• MNTN (MNTN) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $22
• Tractor Supply (TSCO) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $60
• United Bankshares (UBSI) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler
• Downgrades
• Anavex Life Sciences (AVXL) Cut to Hold at Jones
• Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright; PT $12
• Avadel (AVDL) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $20
• Inspire Medical (INSP) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $85
• Integer (ITGR) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $80
• Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $77
• Life360 (360 AU) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $92
• Mister Car Wash (MCW) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $6
• Molina (MOH) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $144
• Snap (SNAP) Cut to Sell at Stifel; PT $6.50
• South Plains (SPFI) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $41
• Torrid (CURV) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• Initiations
• Albemarle (ALB) Rated New Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $135
• Alphatec Holdings (ATEC) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $19
• Amazon (AMZN) Resumed Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $300
• Credo Technology (CRDO) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• CRH (CRH) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan
• GlobalFoundries (GFS) Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $45
• ImageneBio Inc (IMA) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $30
• Kosmos Energy (KOS) Rated New Buy at Clarksons; PT $4
• Kyivstar Group (KYIV) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $17
• Legence (LGN) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $41
• Microsoft (MSFT) Rated New Buy at GF Securities; PT $636.24
• Novavax (NVAX) Reinstated Overweight at Cantor; PT $18
• Pennant Group (PNTG) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $30
• Pony AI (PONY) ADRs Rated New Add at Caitong Securities
• SQM (SQM/B CI) ADRs Rated New Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $54
• Tennant (TNC) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $102
• Versamet Royalties (VMET CN) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke