Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on October 27, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET US September Durable goods orders (delayed); 10:30ET Dallas Fed manufacturing activity;
11:30ET 2-Year Auction; 1:00ET 5-Year Auction

Highlights and News:  

  • Top Chinese and US economic officials on Sunday hashed out the framework of a trade deal
  • BESSENT SAYS WE HAVE A FRAMEWORK FOR TRUMP, XI TO DECIDE ON
  • US signed deals on trade and critical minerals with four Southeast Asian partners on Sunday
  • China’s Industrial Profit Growth Picks Up to Near Two-Year High
  • The “Super Bowl” of earnings season this week, 40% of S&P 500 market cap reports, 5 of the Mag 7
  • Retail call buying is hitting new record levels
  • Thailand reached an agreement with Cambodia to manage a border dispute

 

Global stocks climbed following reports of a US-China trade truce and expectations of additional monetary easing. The preliminary trade agreement, reached by negotiators
over the weekend, awaits final approval from President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at their upcoming meeting in South Korea. The United States signed a flurry of deals on trade and critical minerals with four Southeast Asian partners on Sunday. Meanwhile,
the US appeared to progress toward trade deals with key Latin American allies. Brazil’s leader said Trump “guaranteed” the countries would reach an agreement to lower Washington’s 50% tariffs, while Mexico’s leader said her country had made progress with Washington
over a bilateral deal. Japanese stocks reached a record high in response to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s spending plans. Takaichi meets with Trump this week. Investors also widely anticipate a quarter-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this
week, while the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are expected to maintain current borrowing costs.

 

EQUITIES: 

 US equity futures rallied as easing trade tensions between China and the US boosted investor confidence, setting a positive tone for a week filled with central bank meetings and major
corporate earnings. Top trade negotiators for the US and China said they came to terms on a range of contentious points. Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs against China is “off the table,” and China will pause plans to expand rare earth export controls for a
year, according to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. A Chinese official said the two sides reached a preliminary consensus on topics including export controls, fentanyl and shipping levies. The busiest part of the US earnings season is here, with MSFT,
APPL, GOOGL, AMZN and META all due to report this week. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to cut rates by a quarter percentage point on Wednesday.  

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.8%, Nasdaq +1.3%, Russell 2000 +1%, DJI +0.5%.

In pre-market trading, US stocks with significant exposure to Argentina are rallying after President Javier Milei posted a strong showing in legislative elections.
US-listed rare earth stocks fell after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that he believed China would delay its rare earth curbs for a year. Avidity Biosciences (RNA) soars 43% after Novartis agreed to buy the biotechnology company in a deal
valued at $12 billion. Shares in peer Dyne Therapeutics (DYN) jump 36%. BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO) climbs 10% after reporting positive topline results from its Phase 3 pivotal study of BBP-418 in individuals living with limb-girdle muscular dystrophy. Cadence
Bank (CADE) rises 2% after agreeing to be bought by Huntington Bancshares. Essential Utilities Inc. (WTRG) climbs 1.9% after American Water Works Co. agreed to buy the company in an all-stock deal valued at about $12 billion. GameStop (GME) rises 7% after
the White House’s Rapid Response 47 account reposted a statement from the company on X that declared the so-called “console wars” over. Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) gains 6% after raising its full-year net sales outlook, as focus turns to its acquisition of
JDE Peet’s NV. Zenas Biopharma (ZBIO) soars 56% after the drug developer said a mid-stage trial of its investigative therapy for multiple sclerosis met its primary endpoint.

European gauges are muted as traders looked ahead to central bank interest-rate decisions and US-China negotiations that could cement a trade truce. The ECB is set
to keep policy and messaging unchanged this week. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index is little changed, with banks and technology shares leading gains while chemicals and healthcare lag. Spain’s Ibex 35 index topped an all-time closing high last seen in 2007, fueled
by a rally in banking stocks. In individual movers, Sydbank A/S advanced as much as 7.5% after the lender agreed to buy two smaller rivals in Denmark in the latest sign that bank consolidation is heating up in the Nordic country. Porsche shares gained after
posting its latest earnings after market close on Friday. Goodwin shares jumped 33% to a record high, after the engineering company said it expects annual trading profit before tax to double from the prior year.  Stoxx 600 +0.1%, DAX ~flat, CAC -0.1%, FTSE
100 +0.15%.  Banks +1.1%, Technology +1.1%, Insurance +0.6%. Healthcare -1%, Chemicals -0.9%.

Shares in Asia rose as signs of a detente in China-US trade tensions buoyed risk appetite, with indices is South Korea, Taiwan and Japan hitting record highs. The MSCI
Asia Pacific Index gained 1.5%, with TSMC and Tencent among the biggest boosts. South Korea’s Kospi jumped more than 2.5% to a new all-time high, helped by chipmaker shares, while Japan’s Topix reached record levels amid strong public support for newly appointed
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Benchmarks in Hong Kong and mainland China rose over 1% each ahead of Thursday’s planned meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping.  Chinese industrial companies saw their earnings surge the most in nearly two years, as production
revs up while declines in factory-gate prices ease amid a government campaign to rein in excess capacity. Industrial profits climbed for the second straight month in September and rose 21.6% from a year earlier, their biggest gain since November 2023. Indonesian
stocks fell the most in over six months after an MSCI consultation paper proposed changes to the free-float calculation for local shares. Kospi +2.6%, Nikkei 225 +2.5%, Hang Seng Tech +1.8%, Topix +1.7%, Taiwan +1.7%, CSI 300 +1.2%, Hang Seng Index +1.05%,
Thailand +0.7%, Sensex +0.7%, ASX 200 +0.4%. Philippines -0.9%, Vietnam -1.8%, Indonesia -1.9%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields are just slightly mixed as the rates market faces pressure from two- and five-year note auctions slated for today, an accelerated schedule enabling
supply cycle to conclude before Fed rate decision Wednesday.  10-year yield is about flat around 4.015%; 2s10s is down half a bp. Today’s auctions include $69 billion 2-year at 11:30am and $70 billion 5-year at 1pm; cycle ends Tuesday with $44 billion 7-year
sale. IG dollar issuance slate includes several listings. Around $20 billion of supply is expected this week, staggered around the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday.

 

METALS: 

Safe-haven gold fell over 2% as hopes of easing US-China trade tensions lifted risk appetite, while investors awaited major central bank meetings this week. A US-China
trade agreement may ease some of the economic risks and geopolitical tensions that have bolstered the precious metal, with bullion still up 54% this year. Meanwhile, nearly 1,000 professional gold traders, brokers and refiners have descended on Kyoto in Japan
for a conference run by the London Bullion Market Association. Attendance at the gathering — which began on Sunday — is at a record high. Copper surged toward a record high, fueled by optimism about the impending US-China trade agreement and ongoing supply
disruptions at major global mines. Spot gold -1.9%, Silver -2.3%, Copper futures +1.1%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices steadied as traders assessed the US and Chinese trade deal framework. Iraq, the OPEC group’s biggest overproducer, was in negotiations over the size of
its quota within its available capacity of 5.5 million barrels per day, oil minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani said at an oil conference today. Hurricane Melissa became the Atlantic season’s third chart-topping Category 5 storm in the Caribbean, where it is expected
to make landfall early Tuesday in Jamaica. Oil prices will “moderate” because of ample supply from the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina, IEA boss Fatih Birol said.  WTI -0.15%, Brent -0.2%, US Nat Gas -0.6%, RBOB -0.4%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is weaker versus all G-10 peers as investors braced for a week packed with central bank meetings and trade negotiations. Yen is marginally
higher while the Bank of Japan is widely expected to hold interest rates on Thursday at its first meeting under the new prime minister. The Chinese yuan rose to a more than one-month high against the dollar ahead of the Trump/Xi meeting later in the week.
The euro firms as robust euro zone data last week bolstered expectations that the ECB will keep interest rates elevated for longer, offering fresh support. Aussie dollar tops G-10 currency leaderboard as signs of progress in trade talks between the US and
China bolstered demand for higher-yielding assets.  US$ Index -0.2%, GBPUSD +0.3%, EURUSD +0.15%, USDJPY -0.2%, AUDUSD +0.65%, NZDUSD +0.3%, USDCHF -0.1%, USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK -0.3%, USDNOK -0.1%.

 

 

Bitcoin +1.8%, Ethereum +2.3%.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Booking (BKNG) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $5,750
    • DoorDash (DASH) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $315
    • Doximity (DOCS) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $82
    • EastGroup (EGP) Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $207
    • Fate Therapeutics (FATE) Raised to Outperform at Wedbush; PT $7
    • First Finl Bankshares (FFIN) Raised to Outperform at Hovde Group
    • Five Below (FIVE) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $186
    • General Dynamics (GD) Raised to Buy at Vertical Research; PT $400
    • Glaukos (GKOS) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $120
    • H World Group Ltd (HTHT) ADRs Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $46.40
    • Honeywell (HON) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $253
    • Life Time (LTH) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $39
    • Microsoft (MSFT) Raised to Buy at Guggenheim; PT $586
    • Mister Car Wash (MCW) Raised to Overweight at Stephens
    • Nicolet Bankshares (NIC) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $160
    • Replimune (REPL) Raised to Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $12
    • Terex (TEX) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $70
    • Thor Industries (THO) Raised to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $32
  • Downgrades
    • Adverum Bio (ADVM) Cut to Neutral at Chardan Capital Markets; PT $5
    • Avidity Biosciences (RNA) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
      • Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A) Cut to Underperform at KBW; PT $700,000
    • First Bancorp PR (FBP) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $24
    • Harley-Davidson (HOG) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $25
    • Keysight (KEYS) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $180
    • MRC Global (MRC) Cut to Hold at Loop Capital; PT $16
    • Roper (ROP) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $539
    • TXNM Energy (TXNM) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $61.25
    • Wolverine World Wide (WWW) Cut to Hold at Williams Trading; PT $27
  • Initiations
    • Amer Sports (AS) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $42
    • Anglogold (AU) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $90
    • Array Digital (AD) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $62
    • Array (ARRY) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $62
    • AvePoint (AVPT) Rated New Neutral at Baird; PT $17
    • Chefs’ Warehouse (CHEF) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $75
    • Civista Bancshares (CIVB) Reinstated Buy at DA Davidson; PT $26
    • Commvault Systems (CVLT) Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $215
    • Dime Community (DCOM) Reinstated Buy at DA Davidson; PT $36
    • Fermi (FRMI) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $27
      • Rated New Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $31
      • Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $29
      • Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $27
    • Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $78
    • Neptune Insurance Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $30
      • Neptune Insurance Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $32
      • Neptune Insurance Rated New Underperform at Mizuho Securities
      • Neptune Insurance Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $25
      • Neptune Insurance Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
      • Neptune Insurance Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $25
      • Neptune Insurance Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $30
      • Neptune Insurance Rated New Market Perform at KBW; PT $26
      • Neptune Insurance Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $33
    • Netskope (NTSK) Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $27
    • OceanFirst (OCFC) Reinstated Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $19
    • Oruka Therapeutics Inc (ORKA) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $60
    • RAPT Therapeutics (RAPT) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $70
    • Robinhood (HOOD) Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $155
    • SailPoint (SAIL) Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $26
    • Sky Harbour Group (SKYH) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $13
    • Teradyne (TER) Rated New Buy at GF Securities; PT $186

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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