Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on October 28, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  9:00ET FHFA House Price Index; 10:00ET Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, Richmond Fed Business
Conditions, Consumer Confidence; 10:30ET Dallas Fed Services Activity; 1:00ET 7-Year Note Auction; 12:00ET Jensen Huang’s keynote at Nvidia GTC Conference in Washington DC

Highlights and News:  

  • Trump Hails Ally Japan, Offers Takaichi ‘Anything You Want’
  • Zelenskiy says Kyiv ready for peace talks, but will not cede territory
  • Hurricane Melissa Heading Towards Jamaica
  • Amazon said it will cut around 14,000 corporate jobs
  • Dodgers win as Freddie Freeman hit a walk-off homer in the 18th inning, while Shohei Ohtani became the first player in postseason history to reach base nine times in a game

 

Global stocks paused as Chinese and US trade negotiators lined up a series of diplomatic wins for Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping to unveil at a summit this week.
Investors are in for a packed few days featuring Big Tech earnings, a Federal Reserve rate decision, and a critical meeting between Trump and Xi. Overnight focus was on Japan, where Trump signed deals on rare earths and trade while showering praise on new
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. The critical minerals pact was light on details. The EU is in talks with anchor investors including Denmark’s EIFO and the Novo Nordisk Foundation for its €5 billion fund to support AI, quantum and other strategic technologies.
Ukraine is ready for peace talks but will not withdraw its troops from additional territory first as Moscow has demanded, President Zelenskiy said.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are mixed after notching fresh record highs as investors awaited results from US technology giants tomorrow as well as the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting,
which kicks off today. There are lofty expectations for the “Magnificent Seven” tech heavyweights reporting this week, all needing strong results to justify stretched valuations. Blackrock CEO Larry Fink said US assets are still the place to be overweight
for the next 18 months. PayPal shares jumped premarket after the company announced a partnership with OpenAI that will integrate its digital wallet into ChatGPT. UPS soared after the company’s earnings beat as its turnaround plan starts to take hold. Westinghouse,
Cameco and Brookfield signed a pact with the US government that will see the construction of at least $80 billion of new nuclear reactors.  

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.2%, Russell 2000 -0.2%, DJI +0.4%.

In pre-market trading, Amkor Technology (AMKR) falls 6% after the semiconductor manufacturing company reported third-quarter results. Cameco (CCJ) gains 13% on its
involvement in a strategic partnership with the US government and other firms that will see at least $80b of new nuclear reactors constructed in the US. Confluent (CFLT) rises 10% after the software company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations
and raised its full-year forecast. Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) falls 6% after the supplier of specialty trucks and equipment posted third quarter revenue that missed estimates. NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) is up 2% after the provider of chips for automakers
and industrial customers gave a stronger-than-anticipated forecast for the current period. PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) rises 15% after the company raised its full-year earnings guidance and announced a tie-up with OpenAI to embed its digital wallet into ChatGPT.
Qorvo (QRVO) climbs 10% as the Information reported that Apple-supplier Skyworks Solutions held talks in recent months to buy its rival. Royal Caribbean (RCL) falls 7% after the cruise operator’s fourth quarter adjusted EPS forecast fell short. SoFi Technologies
(SOFI) rises 3% after the online lender boosted its adjusted net revenue forecast for the full year. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) gains 3% after the company beat Wall Street expectations for third-quarter earnings and raised its outlook. United Parcel Service
(UPS) jumps 8% after third-quarter profit topped Wall Street’s estimates. Waste Management (WM) is down 3% after the waste management services company said its 2025 revenue outlook is now expected to be approximately $25.275 billion, the low end of the prior
guidance range.

European gauges as underwhelming quarterly results from heavyweight Swiss drugmaker Novartis AG and French banking group BNP Paribas SA weighed. The Stoxx 600 edges
lower after hitting a record high on Monday, with real estate and construction sectors leading losses. HSBC Holdings Plc gained after lifting its profit outlook, while French technology-services firm Capgemini SE and Spanish energy company Iberdrola SA advanced
on earnings beats. German wind-turbine maker Nordex SE surged more than 17% after a guidance raise. BNP shares slid after the bank took a €190 million hit due to “a specific credit situation.”  Spain’s IBEX inched up to touch a new record, its first time at
a peak since the onset of the financial crisis in 2007. UK food prices fell 0.4% month-on-month in October, their sharpest rate in almost five years, partly due to the global easing in sugar prices. Stoxx 600 -0.2%, DAX -0.05%, CAC -0.05%, FTSE 100 +0.1%.
Real Estate -1%, Construction -0.9%, Food & Bev -0.9%. Utilities +0.3%, Media +0.3%. 

Shares in Asia were mostly lower, led by declines in South Korea and Japan, as investors positioned ahead of key interest rate decisions, global megacap earnings and
the upcoming Trump/Xi summit. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5%, pressured by tech names. Australian drugmaker CSL was the biggest drag, plunging to a near seven-year low after delaying plans to spin off its vaccines business. Shares of Asian critical
mineral producers declined, mirroring losses in US-listed peers on expectations that China may delay its rare earth export curbs. China pledged to sharply accelerate consumption growth in its next five-year plan starting in 2026. Japan revealed potential projects
for its $550 billion US investment fund, including ventures by SoftBank, Toshiba, and Westinghouse in AI, energy and critical minerals. Hang Seng Tech -1.25%, Topix -1.2%, Kospi -0.8%, CSI 300 -0.5%, ASX 200 -0.5%, Hang Seng Index -0.3%, Sensex -0.2%. Singapore
+0.2%, Philippines +0.3%, Vietnam +1.7%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are narrowly mixed, keeping yields within a basis point of Monday’s closing levels. 10-year Treasury yields slipped to 3.98% as investors await Wednesday’s
Fed meeting. A quarter-point rate cut is considered a done deal, with attention centered on whether the Fed will endorse market expectations for another easing in December. Canada’s central bank is also expected to cut rates this week, while the European Central
Bank and the Bank of Japan are seen holding steady. Focal points of Tuesday’s US session include 7-year note auction along with housing and consumer confidence data.

 

METALS: 

Gold dropped over 2% to a three-week low as optimism surrounding easing trade tensions boosted risk appetite and reduced demand for safe-haven bullion, while investors
shifted focus to tomorrow’s Federal Reserve policy decision. The US’ pivot toward deal-making with China, alongside a shift in gold-price momentum, is set to propel the metal lower over the coming weeks, according to Citigroup analysts. ETFs cut 448,706 troy
ounces of gold from their holdings as prices plunged on Monday, the biggest decline in six months. The sales were equivalent to $1.79 billion at yesterday’s spot price. Spot gold -1.4%, Silver -0.8%, Copper futures -0.8%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices eased on a Reuters report that eight OPEC+ nations are leaning towards making another modest increase in oil output for December at their Sunday meeting,
with Saudi Arabia pressing to regain market share. Brent fell below $65 a barrel, as investors—now better positioned after a massive unwind of speculative bets —prepared to revive wagers on a looming supply glut driving prices lower. Hedge funds’ Brent short
positions surged +40,233 contracts, to a total of 197,868, in the week ending October 21st, the most on record. The amount of oil being shipped across the world’s oceans hit a record high, indicating that excess supplies continue to rise. Hurricane Melissa
tracked toward Jamaica, packing intense rains, 175 miles per hour winds and threatening to cause widespread destruction and flooding. It’s expected to make landfall today with a life-threatening storm surge of up to 13 feet. WTI -1.2%, Brent -1.2%, US Nat
Gas -2.6%, RBOB -0.4%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the likelihood of lower borrowing costs in the US this week weighed on the dollar as investors waited to see just how dovish the Federal Reserve
might be on the outlook. The yen gained against the dollar after US Treasury Secretary Bessent and newly appointed Japanese Finance Minister Katayama discussed exchange rate volatility. China’s yuan climbed to its strongest level in nearly a year, amid optimism
over a potential China-US trade deal. Aussie$ steadied after RBA’s Bullock pushes back on rapid rate cuts. US$ Index -0.1%, GBPUSD -0.2%, EURUSD +0.1%, USDJPY -0.5%, AUDUSD +0.03%, NZDUSD +0.05%, USDCHF -0.1%, USDCAD +0.05%, USDSEK -0.1%, USDNOK +0.1%.

 

 

Bitcoin -0.1%, Ethereum -0.4%.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Banco BBVA Argentina SA (BBAR AR) ADRs Raised to Outperform at Itau BBA
    • Banco Macro (BMA AR) ADRs Raised to Outperform at Itau BBA; PT $78
    • Cadence Bank (CADE) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $47
    • Core Scientific (CORZ) Raised to Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $25
    • CRH (CRH) Raised to Outperform at On Field; PT $143
    • CrowdStrike (CRWD) Raised to Buy at Arete; PT $706
    • Fox Corp (FOXA) Raised to Buy at Arete; PT $97
    • Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL AR) ADRs Raised to Neutral at Safra; PT $60
    • LXP Industrial Trust (LXP) Raised to Market Outperform at Citizens
    • Peyto Exploration (PEY CN) Raised to Sector Outperform at Peters & Co
    • RB Global (RBA CN) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $120
    • Spruce Bio (SPRB) Raised to Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $254
    • Upwork (UPWK) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $21
  • Downgrades
    • Avidity Biosciences (RNA) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $72
    • Boot Barn (BOOT) Cut to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
    • Cadence Bank (CADE) Cut to Equal-Weight at Stephens
      • Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $47
      • Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $40
      • Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $40
    • Essential Utilities (WTRG) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $43
      • Cut to Neutral at Janney Montgomery; PT $43
    • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $17
      • Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $14
      • Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
    • Selective Insurance (SIGI) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $81
  • Initiations
    • Ameren (AEE) Rated New Sector Perform at RBC; PT $119
      • Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $112
    • American Electric Power (AEP) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo
    • American Water (AWK) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $142
    • Avista (AVA) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $38
    • BJ’s Restaurants (BJRI) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $32
    • BKV (BKV) Rated New Outperform at Pickering Energy
    • Brinker (EAT) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $155
    • Candel Therapeutics (CADL) Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $15
    • Cava Group (CAVA) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $65
    • CenterPoint Energy (CNP) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $44
    • Centessa Pharmaceuticals (CNTA) ADRs Rated New Overweight at Stephens
    • Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities
    • Chipotle (CMG) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $40
    • CMS Energy (CMS) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $77
    • Con Edison (ED) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $99
    • Constellation Energy (CEG) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo
    • Darden (DRI) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $190
    • Denny’s (DENN) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $5
    • Dine Brands (DIN) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $28
    • Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities
    • DTE Energy (DTE) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $157
    • Duke Energy (DUK) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $126
    • Dutch Bros (BROS) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $70
    • Edison International (EIX) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo
    • Entergy (ETR) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $105
    • Evergy (EVRG) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $77
      • Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $93
    • Eversource (ES) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $79
    • Exelon (EXC) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $52
    • FirstEnergy (FE) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $54
    • Gold Fields (GFI SJ) ADRs Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $50
    • Idacorp (IDA) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $129
    • Jack in the Box (JACK) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $18
    • McDonald’s (MCD) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $300
    • MSC Income Fund (MSIF) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $15
    • NiSource (NI) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $47
    • Northwestern (NWE) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $58
    • OGE Energy (OGE) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $45
      • Rated New Sector Perform at RBC; PT $51
    • Papa John’s (PZZA) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $58
    • PG&E (PCG) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $23
    • Pinnacle West Capital (PNW) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo
    • Portland General (POR) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $45
    • PPL (PPL) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $43
    • PSEG (PEG) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $88
    • Qnity Electronics (Q-W) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $109
      • Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $110
    • Sachem Capital (SACH) Rated New Neutral at Lucid Capital Markets
    • Sempra (SRE) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $115
    • Shake Shack (SHAK) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $95
    • Southern Co (SO) Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $97
    • Starbucks (SBUX) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $84
    • Sui Group (SUIG) Rated New Buy at Alliance Global Partners; PT $6.50
    • Terawulf (WULF) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $20
    • Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities
    • VeriSign (VRSN) Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $270
    • WEC Energy (WEC) Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $124
    • Wendy’s (WEN) Rated New Underperform at Mizuho Securities
    • Wingstop (WING) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $320

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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