Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on October 29, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Advance Goods Trade Balance,
Retail Inventories , Wholesale Inventories; 9:45ET Canada Bank of Rate Decision; 10:00ET Pending Home Sales; 2:00ET FOMC Rate Decision*; 2:30ET Powell’s press conference

Highlights and News:  

  • US and South Korea agreed to 15% tariff on auto parts in exchange for $350B US investment pledge
  • Pakistan threatens to ‘obliterate’ Taliban after peace talks fail
  • IDF SAYS BEGAN RE-ENFORCING GAZA AGREEMENT
  • TRUMP: THINK WE’LL MAKE A DEAL WITH CHINA’S XI
  • CHINA OPEN TO MORE COOPERATION WITH US ON FENTANYL: GUO
  • China buys first US soybean cargoes this season

 

Global stocks inch higher with President Trump on the final leg of his Asia trip in South Korea, then onto talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday. Trump
said he expects to reduce US tariffs on Chinese goods in exchange for Beijing’s commitment to curb exports of fentanyl precursor chemicals. Investors are also waiting for the Fed meeting later in the session, at which a 25-basis-point cut is almost fully priced
in. Canada’s rate decision comes earlier in the day. The BOC is expected to cut rates by 25 bps to help an economy that’s suffering more damage from US tariffs. Traders are gearing up for what could be two pivotal days featuring the Fed decision, US-China
trade talks, and earnings from five of the Magnificent 7. Meanwhile, global companies have accelerated layoffs, with blue-chip giants like Amazon, Nestlé, and UPS tightening budgets amid weakening consumer confidence, while AI-driven tech firms begin replacing
workers with automation. Pakistan’s defense minister vowed to “obliterate” Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban, sharply escalating tensions after peace talks collapsed. Israel began re-enforcing a Gaza ceasefire after conducting overnight air strikes in retaliation
for a Palestinian attack against its troops.

 

EQUITIES: 

 US equity futures edge higher ahead of the Fed’s rate decision and earnings reports from some of the Mag 7 names. The FOMC is set to cut by 25 basis points today, but what’s less certain
is whether the committee will announce an end to quantitative tightening. The breadth of the S&P 500’s gain on Tuesday was the narrowest since at least 1993, adding to the theme of concentration with gains generated by a relatively low number of advancers.
Out of the 197 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 85% have managed to beat analyst forecasts. Nvidia climbed 4% in premarket trading after President Trump announced plans to discuss its Blackwell processors with Chinese leader
Xi Jinping, positioning the AI leader to become the first public company valued at $5 trillion. Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta are among the companies reporting earnings results today.  

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.25%, Nasdaq +0.4%, Russell 2000 -0.1%, DJI +0.2%.

In pre-market trading, Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) is up 4% after US President Donald Trump said he’ll discuss the chipmaker’s Blackwell artificial intelligence processors
with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Avantor (AVTR) tumbles 17% after the maker of laboratory supplies reported net sales for the third quarter that fell short of the average analyst estimate. Bloom Energy (BE) gains 18% after the company reported adjusted earnings
per share for the third quarter that beat. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) rises 4% after posting higher third-quarter revenue, with its energy and transportation business boosting earnings. Enphase Energy (ENPH) declines 11% after the firm’s fourth-quarter revenue
forecast missed. Etsy (ETSY) falls 9% after the online marketplace company reported its third-quarter results. Fiserv (FI) tumbles 27% after it slashed its outlook for full-year earnings and said it’s overhauling its top leadership committee. Generac (GNRC)
plunges 9% after the power-equipment company cut its adjusted Ebitda margin and net sales growth forecast for the full year. Mondelez (MDLZ) is down 5% after the snack-food company cut its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year. Seagate Technology
(STX) is up 5% after the computer hardware and storage company reported first-quarter results that beat. Stride Inc. (LRN) tanks 42% after the online education company gave an outlook that was much weaker than expected, prompting a downgrade. Teradyne (TER)
rises 20% after the company forecast adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter above the average analyst estimate. Varonis Systems (VRNS) plunges 29% after the data-security software company’s updated full-year revenue forecast came in below the average
analyst estimate.

European gauges hovered near recent highs with sentiment helped by new AI deals and the prospect of improving US-China trade relations. FTSE 100 outperforms and hit
a new intra-day record after a swathe of well-received reports from Glencore, Next and GSK. The Stoxx 600 holds small gains with miners and auto sectors outperforming while telecom and defense names lag. Autos are at the top of the leaderboard as Mercedes-Benz
Group AG jumped over 5% after confirming its outlook and buyback plans. Elsewhere, Deutsche Bank AG gained 2% in choppy trading after it exceeded analyst estimates for fixed-income trading. UBS Group AG shares fell 1.5% after rising as much as 4% in earlier
trading, as investors were put off by the legal uncertainty around previously canceled debt known as AT1 bonds. Temenos shares jump over 17%, after the software company reported beats across metrics and raised its Ebit forecast for the full year Neste shares
gain as much as 9.7% after the Finnish energy group reported its latest earnings. Stoxx 600 +0.3%, DAX +0.1%, CAC +0.1%, FTSE 100 +0.9%. Autos +1.8%, Basic Resources +1.8%, Banks +1.4%. Defense -0.6%, Telecom -0.5%, Travel -0.4%.

Shares in Asia rose, boosted by the technology sector on AI-driven earnings strength, as investors awaited a meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping. The MSCI Asia Pacific
Index gained 0.5%, with Nvidia suppliers Advantest and SK Hynix among the biggest boosts after reporting strong outlooks. Japanese and South Korean gauges led gains in the region, hitting new record highs. The Nikkei 225 jumped over 2%, led by major tech stocks
after they were flagged as potential US-Japan investment targets. Kospi rises to all-time highs following SK Hynix record profit and strong 2026 outlook. The ASX200 fell as Australia’s core inflation accelerated beyond expectations last quarter, complicating
the Reserve Bank’s path to further policy easing. Onshore Chinese equities advanced, while Hong Kong’s market was closed for a holiday. Nikkei 225 +2.2%, Kospi +1.8%, Taiwan +1.2%, CSI 300 +1.2%, Indonesia +0.9%, Sensex +0.4%, Vietnam +0.3%, Philippines +0.2%.
Singapore -0.2%, Topix -0.2%, ASX 200 -1%.  

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Yields are modestly higher across the US Treasury curve, with the 10-year at 3.99%; money markets are fully pricing a 25bp cut later today. Today’s meeting is anticipated
also to include guidance on Fed’s plans to stop shrinking its holdings of Treasuries. US yields at 1bp-2bp cheaper across a slightly steeper curve. 

 

METALS: 

Gold surged nearly 2% as investors rushed back in after a three-week low, with all eyes on the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut decision and
Chair Jerome Powell’s speech. Copper rose to a record high in London amid a series of supply setbacks at leading mines and the prospect of an imminent easing in US-China tensions. With mines worldwide facing disruptions and American inventories effectively
stranded, Morgan Stanley predicts the global copper market will face its most severe deficit in more than 20 years in 2026.  Spot gold +1.9%, Silver +2.8%, Copper futures +0.8%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices inched up with traders optimistic about the US-China meeting. The world’s biggest oil companies are expected to press ahead with plans to accelerate production
growth despite weak crude prices and higher supplies from OPEC and its allies, according to analysts’ estimates. The companies are cutting jobs, reducing low-carbon investments and trimming share buybacks to channel funds toward oil and gas production. Hurricane
Melissa made landfall in Cuba as a Cat 3 just hours after it became the strongest recorded storm to strike Jamaica, causing widespread damage. US gasoline stockpiles slumped by 6.3 million barrels last week, the API reported. That would be the biggest drop
in more than a year if confirmed by the EIA today. The US Energy Information Administration said its August Petroleum Supply Monthly report will use estimates on crude exports based on the prior month as Census data is unavailable. August PSM report is due
to be released on Friday. WTI +0.1%, Brent -0.02%, US Nat Gas -1.8%, RBOB +0.4%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar firmed against most G-10 peers ahead of an expected Federal Reserve interest-rate cut. Sterling and the Swiss franc lead G-10 losses,
while Aussie$ gains as AUD 3-year yield jumps more than 10 bps on unexpectedly strong inflation report. The yen had strengthened earlier in the session after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stepped up his criticism of Tokyo’s prolonged low rates.  Short-term
event risk from central bank decisions hasn’t sparked meaningful gamma demand as volatility extends its move lower. The loonie is flat ahead of Canada’s rate decision.  US$ Index +0.2%, GBPUSD -0.4%, EURUSD -0.1%, USDJPY +0.1%, AUDUSD +0.1%, NZDUSD -0.05%,
USDCHF +0.45%, USDCAD -0.05%, USDSEK -0.1%, USDNOK +0.2%.

 

 

Bitcoin +0.3%, Ethereum +0.7%.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Amerant Bancorp (AMTB) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $21
    • Bloom Energy (BE) Raised to Buy at Mirae Asset Securities; PT $143
    • Edwards Life (EW) Raised to Peerperform at Wolfe
      • Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $98
    • Everest Group Ltd (EG) Raised to Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Innate Pharma (IPH FP) ADRs Raised to Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $5
    • Iqvia (IQV) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $258
    • Qorvo (QRVO) Raised to Neutral at Citi
    • Skyworks (SWKS) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $140
      • Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $105
      • Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays
      • Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT $91
    • Sunoco (SUN) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $65
    • Telecom Argentina (TECO2 AR) ADRs Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
    • TMX Group (X CN) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$60
    • Wayfair (W) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $130
    • Xencor (XNCR) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $23
  • Downgrades
    • Alexandria Real Estate (ARE) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
    • Autohome (ATHM) ADRs Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $28
    • Avidity Biosciences (RNA) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $74
      • Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $37
    • IREN Ltd (IREN) Cut to Sell at HC Wainwright; PT $45
    • Kenvue (KVUE) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT $15
    • Kiwetinohk Energy (KEC CN) Cut to Sector Perform at ATB Capital
    • Qorvo (QRVO) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $110
    • ReNew Energy (RNW) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $8.15
    • Stride (LRN) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $108
    • Toromont Industries (TIH CN) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT C$160
    • UnitedHealth (UNH) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $333
    • Varonis Systems (VRNS) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $52
    • VF Corp (VFC) Cut to Neutral at KGI Securities; PT $14.50
  • Initiations
    • Air Liquide (AI FP) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $49
    • Bloom Energy (BE) Rated New Buy at CTBC Securities; PT $150.40
    • Central Puerto (CEPU AR) ADRs Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $17.50
    • Daqo New Energy (DQ) ADRs Rated New Buy at Mirae Asset Securities
    • Energy Transfer (ET) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $17
    • Go Residential REIT (GO/U CN) Rated New Buy at Desjardins; PT $15
    • Northwest Bancshares (NWBI) Reinstated Neutral at DA Davidson
    • Qnity Electronics (Q-W) Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $117
    • Simmons First (SFNC) Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $22
    • Southwest Gas (SWX) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $91
    • Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $106
    • West Pharma (WST) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $350

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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