Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on October 31, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN: 
from the trading desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET
Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Price Index, Employment Cost Index(all delayed); 9:45ET Chicago PMI, S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI; 1:30ET Fed Logan Speech; 4:00ET Fed Bostic Speech, Fed Hammack Speech.


Highlights and News:  

  • US STRIKES ON VENEZUELA COULD COME AT ANY MOMENT: MIAMI HERALD
  • Amazon rallies over 13% after delivering cloud growth that beats expectations, offsetting weakness in retail operations.
  • JetBlue flight makes emergency landing in Tampa after ‘drop in altitude’ injures passengers
  • Goldman and Morgan Stanley expect Halloween’s Friday timing to spur a strong “weekend effect,” boosting retail and leisure revenues. Americans are projected to spend a record $13.1 billion this Halloween—a 13% increase over last year’s $11.6 billion.
Global stocks climbed as investors reacted to Amazon’s blockbuster results, which fueled a risk-on rebound and set the S&P 500 on track for its sixth consecutive monthly gain. Futures on the US benchmark rose with Amazon jumping 13% in premarket trading, a
move poised to add roughly $300 billion to its market capitalization following the fastest cloud-unit growth in three years. Apple also advanced on robust earnings and a positive holiday sales forecast, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 1.2%. All seven mega-cap
US tech names moved higher, supported by Nvidia’s new partnerships in South Korea and upbeat sentiment around expanding AI infrastructure. Meanwhile, the Stoxx Europe 600 slipped for a fourth straight session, and Asia’s benchmark trimmed gains into the month’s
close. US Treasuries held firm following volatile sessions, and the dollar was little changed.

EQUITIES: 

The S&P 500’s rally remains anchored by resilient earnings, with roughly 80% of companies topping forecasts so far this quarter. Global equity flows accelerated, with $17.2 billion
pouring in over the last week. Strategic flows and investor positioning increasingly drive market direction, amplifying responses to major earnings reports. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated the US will revisit China trade talks next year, after Trump
and Xi agreed to a pause on tariffs, export controls, and other trade restrictions. Xi emphasized protecting supply chains in his first remarks post-summit, but strategists say a comprehensive deal remains distant despite short-term calm in trade tensions.
Netflix rallied 2% after approving a stock split, while Exxon Mobil and Chevron both outperformed driven by strong results and transformational projects.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.7%, Nasdaq 100 +1.2%, Russell 2000 +0.5%, DJI unchanged.

 

In pre-market trading, Amazon (AMZN) jumps 13% after reporting third-quarter results that beat expectations, with the AWS cloud segment delivering its fastest growth in
years and management issuing a strong outlook. Apple (AAPL) climbs 2% as the company projects robust holiday sales driven by demand for new iPhones, reassuring investors on its flagship product pipeline. Among the Magnificent Seven stocks, Nvidia (NVDA) is
up 2%, Alphabet (GOOGL) gains 1.9%, Meta Platforms (META) rises 1.3%, Tesla (TSLA) adds 1.2%, and Microsoft (MSFT) advances 0.4%. Brighthouse Financial (BHF) surges 19% on reports of potential acquisition talks, while Cloudflare (NET) rises 7.9% following
better-than-expected revenue guidance. Pony.ai (PONY) is up 5.7% after securing a landmark permit for driverless robotaxi operations in Shenzhen. Reddit (RDDT) rallies 11% as quarterly results and an upbeat outlook exceed expectations, and Western Digital
(WDC) gains 11% on strong first-quarter earnings and forecasts. On the downside, Ubiquiti (UI) falls 4.6%, Ventas (VTR) drops 7.5%, and Dexcom (DXCM) sinks 11.8% after cutting its full-year margin outlook

 

European stocks slipped as the Stoxx Europe 600 Index moved lower, trimming gains for the week but remaining on pace for a fourth consecutive monthly advance. Autos led sector gainers
while telecom and insurance shares underperformed. The regional benchmark is set for a +2.5% increase in October and has risen +13% year-to-date. Among movers, Telefónica SA dropped -2.5% after news of a possible dividend cut, while Erste surged to a record
after raising guidance. Danske Bank A/S advanced as the lender tracked toward the upper end of full-year profit targets; Scor fell as much as -8.2% on solvency worries after its quarterly report. Barclays strategists highlight November and December as historically
strong months for European equities inflows, boosting odds of a year-end rally. Stoxx 600 -0.42%, DAX -0.12%, CAC 40 -0.27%, FTSE 100 +0.04%. Media -0.83%, Basic Resources -4.38%, Telecom +0.63%, Autos -0.65%, Technology +2.52%


Shares in Asia slipped as broad losses in China and Hong Kong outweighed gains in Japan and South Korea, with the MSCI Asia
Pacific Index down 0.1% on the day despite heading for a 3.6% monthly gain. Alibaba and Tencent led declines in China, where the MSCI China Index is set for its first monthly drop since April as the earlier AI rally fades and US-China tensions linger. Hitachi’s
earnings and outlook lifted Japanese sentiment, while strong results from Amazon and Apple helped buoy technology stocks. BYD disappointed with weak sales in China, raising concerns for the EV sector. Vietnam -1.8%, CSI 300 -1.5%, Sensex -0.4%, Philippines
-0.6%, ASX 200 0.0%, Hang Seng Index -1.4%, Taiwan -0.2%. Nikkei 225 +2.1%, Kospi +0.5%, Indonesia +0.1%, Topix +0.9%


FIXED INCOME:   

Treasuries held small losses into month-end, with the US 10-year yield near 4.105%, just below Thursday’s high, and most maturities within a basis point of the previous close.
The curve steepened slightly, as 2s10s and 5s30s spreads widened by less than 1bp on the day. Price action stayed muted after October inflation data from France and the euro area, while expectations of month-end index buying limited declines. US investment-grade
bond issuance was quiet following Thursday’s record $41.7 billion in deals—driven by Meta Platforms’ $30 billion offering—which brought October’s total to a record $132 billion. The economic calendar is light due to postponed government data, but market focus
remains on Fed speakers including Dallas Fed President Logan, Cleveland Fed President Hammack, and Atlanta Fed President Bostic


METALS: 

Gold steadied near $4,000 an ounce as traders weighed a US-China trade truce that failed to squash concerns about long-term
competition between the world’s two largest economies. Bullion is headed for a second weekly drop and is down around 8% from a record high above $4,380 seen on October 20, with outflows from gold-backed exchange-traded funds removing some support. Despite
its recent pullback, gold has still advanced more than 50% this year, supported by mainstream investors seeking safety and accelerated central-bank buying. Spot gold -0.6%, Silver -1.1%, Copper futures -2.0%.



ENERGY:   

In energy markets, oil slipped as traders braced for this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting, with the group expected to hike output modestly amid oversupply concerns. West Texas Intermediate
crude fell to $81.24 a barrel, down 0.5% on the day and on track for a near 3.7% October decline. Brent crude slid to $86.35, losing 0.4%, also nearing a third consecutive monthly drop. OPEC+ has restored over 2 million barrels per day of supply early and
may add another limited increase, matching market expectations. Political factors—including new US sanctions on Russia and Saudi Arabia’s ongoing price negotiations—continue to influence sentiment, while US diesel prices remain at record premiums versus crude,
supporting refining margins. Brent -0.4% to $86.35, WTI -0.5%


CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar slipped against most major peers but remains on track for its best month since July, as choppy month-end flows dominate trading. The yen rebounded
after Tokyo’s October inflation rose faster than expected and Japanese industrial output beat forecasts, fueling renewed speculation of a Bank of Japan rate hike. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama emphasized the government’s urgent focus on yen moves, though
the central bank gave little detail on the timing of any policy change. The euro was little changed, holding steady ahead of the European Central Bank’s decision, with French inflation cooling further below target. US$ Index 0.0%, GBPUSD +0.05%, EURUSD 0.0%,
USDJPY +0.1%, AUDUSD -0.2%, NZDUSD -0.1%, USDCHF +0.03%, USDCAD +0.02%, USDSEK +0.10%, USDNOK +0.35%.
Bitcoin +2.5%, Ethereum +3.0%.


 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

Dan Forsythe, CMT

Categories:

Charts

Tags:

aucldxesngqqqsp500tyusdvixwtiX

Comments are closed