Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on November 10, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Fed’s Daly speaks; 9:45ET Fed’s Musalem speaks; 1;00ET $58B 3-year note auction

Highlights and News:  

  • US Senate advances bill to end federal shutdown after some Democrats agree
  • US Flight Delays Set to Escalate on Chicago Snow  
  • US and China step back from shipping probes as tensions ease
  • CHINA COMMERCE MINISTRY: TO INJECT ‘MORE CERTAINTY, STABILITY’ INTO TIES WITH US
  • Goldman Strategists Raise Earnings and Returns View for Europe
  • IRAN SAYS SOME OF ITS NUCLEAR SITES BEING INSPECTED BY IAEA
  • Trump pardoned Rudy Giuliani, Sidney Powell
  • Two Cleveland Guardians pitchers indicted on federal charges of rigging sports bets
  • BBC boss and head of news quit following accusations of bias

 

Global stocks are broadly higher, buoyed by growing optimism that the historic 40-day US government shutdown is nearing its end. On Sunday, the Senate advanced a
bill to reopen federal operations, which have left workers furloughed, delayed food assistance, and disrupted air travel. The US and China suspended port fees on each other’s ships for one year and paused probes into maritime practices, in another sign of
easing tensions between the world’s two largest economies. The imposition of port fees had jolted global shipping, raised freight rates and impeded the flow of some goods. Investors should keep diversifying exposure into Europe, as supportive global growth
will boost earnings and returns, Goldman Sachs said. Goldman economists see the euro appreciating to 1.25 dollar over the next year, translating into a 16% return in dollar terms for European equities, double the expected total return for S&P 500. The risk-on
mood spread across markets, lifting oil, metals, and Bitcoin.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures jumped on optimism that the government shutdown may end soon, and Trump’s bid to appeal to cash-strapped Americans with a tariff “dividend.” Senators advanced a House-passed
bill that will be amended to fund the government until January 30 and include a package of three full-year appropriations bills. The vote to advance the bill passed by a 60-40 margin, the minimum needed to overcome a Senate filibuster, with a group of moderate
Democrats breaking with their party leaders to support the deal. If the Senate eventually passes the bill, the package must still be approved by the House of Representatives and sent to President Trump for his signature, a process that could take several days.
The bill would prohibit federal agencies from firing employees until January 30 and would stall Trump’s campaign to downsize the federal workforce. Nvidia Corp. led gains among the Magnificent Seven tech stocks in premarket trading, rising more than 3%. Barrick
shares jumped premarket after the miner boosted its dividend and share buyback program.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.9%, Nasdaq +1.5%, Russell 2000 +1.3%, DJI +0.4%.

In pre-market trading, Health insurers, including Centene (CNC), are falling as lawmakers move closer to ending the shutdown without securing a health care win. electronic
components company to buy from neutral. Grab Holdings Ltd. (GRAB) gains 6% after an Indonesian government official said the Southeast Asian nation’s sovereign wealth fund is set to be involved in a plan to combine GoTo Gojek Tokopedia’s parent with Grab. Metsera
Inc. (MTSR) shares tumble 14% after Novo Nordisk A/S declined to further raise its offer for the US maker of an experimental weight-loss drug, bringing a bidding war with Pfizer Inc. to an end. Monday.com (MNDY) sinks 16% after the software company narrowed
its full-year revenue forecast. Sunrun Inc. shares are up 6% in after Guggenheim upgraded the solar energy company to buy from neutral. TreeHouse Foods (THS) soars 20% after European buyout firm Investindustrial has agreed to buy the private-label food manufacturer.

Staples vs Consumer Discretionary

European gauges climb as hopes for a deal to end the US government shutdown boosted risk sentiment. Banks and technology companies lead gains while real estate shares
lag. Diageo shares soared after the world’s largest spirits maker named a new CEO. Kingspan advances as much as 8% after the construction materials company gave commentary on next year that was seen as supportive. IAG shares rose as much as 6.7%, recovering
some post-earnings losses from Friday’s session.  Camurus shares jump over 13% after it reported positive topline results from an early-stage obesity treatment study. JTC shares fall as much as 5% after Permira agreed to buy the corporate services firm for
£2.3 billion. Stoxx 600 +1.4%, DAX +1.8%, CAC +1.4%, FTSE 100 +0.9%. Banks +3%, Travel & Leisure +2.3%, Basic Resources +2.3%, Technology +2.1%. Real Estate -0.05%.

Shares in Asia rose, supported by a rebound in technology shares following a selloff last week on concerns over lofty valuations.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose
as much as 1%, with Tencent, TSMC and SK Hynix among the top contributors. Nvidia CEO Huang said he had asked TSMC for more chip supplies as AI demand remained strong. South Korea’s Kospi gauge led gains in the region after reports on a potential dividend
tax cut and likely increase in domestic equity allocation by a pension fund boosted optimism. In China, the CSI300 blue-chip index reversed early losses to close moderately higher. China’s consumer prices rose unexpectedly in October, fueled by holiday-driven
surges in travel, food, and transportation demand—a rebound many economists view as likely temporary. China CPI rose 0.2% from a year earlier, after a 0.3% decline in September, according to data released on Sunday. Kospi +3%, Hang Seng Index +1.5%, Nikkei
225 +1.25%, Taiwan +0.8%, ASX 200 +0.8%, Sensex +0.4%, CSI 300 +0.35%, Thailand +0.3%. Indonesia -0.05%, Singapore -0.1%, Philippines -1%, Vietnam -1.2%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields edged higher, with the benchmark 10-year yield up about 3 basis points to 4.13% as a risk-on mood took hold across world markets. Although recent
data heightened concerns over a softening US labor market, several Federal Reserve officials last week reaffirmed their preference for a cautious approach to additional rate cuts. Treasury coupon auctions resume today with 3-year notes, followed by 10- and
30-year new issues Wednesday and Thursday when cash market reopens after US Veterans Day Tuesday.  US yields are 3bp to 4bp cheaper with curve spreads little changed.
Fed speaker slate includes Daly (8:30ET) and Musalem (9:45ET).

 

METALS: 

Gold surged more than 2% to its highest level in two weeks at about $4,080 an ounce as US lawmakers moved closer to ending the shutdown, which would help lift the
fog around the Federal Reserve’s path on interest rates. Gold saw a boost late last week from signs the job market is souring and a near-record-low US consumer sentiment report. Market participants now see a 65% chance of a Fed rate cut in December.  White
House economic adviser Kevin Hassett cautioned in a Sunday interview that fourth-quarter US economic growth could slip into negative territory if the shutdown continues. Spot gold +2.5%, Silver +3.7%, Copper futures +1.6%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices rose moderately on optimism that the US government shutdown could end soon and lift demand in the world’s top oil consumer, offsetting concerns about rising
supplies globally. US LNG exports are set to hit a record as new projects ramp up. Estimated pipeline deliveries to all terminals rose 11% from a week earlier. The odds of extreme cold this winter in the US, Asia and parts of Europe are climbing as a weakening
polar vortex may unleash Arctic air, leading to higher power and natural gas prices. WTI +0.4%, Brent +0.4%, US Nat Gas +2.4%, RBOB +0.5%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar reversed Asia-session gains and headed for a fourth daily drop as a record-long US government shutdown neared its end. Risk-sensitive
currencies rally, with the Norwegian krone among the outperformers after CPI surprised to the upside. Aussie$ strengthened after an unexpected rise in China’s consumer prices in October also lent support to the currency. Offshore yuan edges marginally firmer
on China’s unexpected inflation uptick. The volatility skew in the yen keeps showing lower confidence of another Bank of Japan interest-rate increase this year, despite comments from policymakers.  A summary of the BOJ’s latest board meeting signaled that
the next rate increase may come as soon as next month. US$ Index -0.05%, GBPUSD +0.15%, EURUSD +0.05%, USDJPY +0.45%, AUDUSD +0.6%, NZDUSD +0.2%, USDCHF +0.01%, USDCAD -0.25%, USDSEK -0.35%, USDNOK -0.55%.

 

 

Bitcoin +1.6%, Ethereum +0.6%.

 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • AMC Networks (AMCX) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $8
    • Array (ARRY) Raised to Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT $12
    • Canopy Growth (WEED CN) Raised to Hold at Benchmark
    • Celestica (CLS CN) Raised to Buy at Citi
    • CF Industries (CF) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $95
    • Eli Lilly (LLY) Raised to Outperform at Leerink; PT $1,104
    • Expedia (EXPE) Raised to Outperform at CICC; PT $271
    • LendingClub (LC) Raised to Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $23
    • MP Materials (MP) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $71
    • Paylocity (PCTY) Raised to Buy at Guggenheim; PT $180
    • Piper Sandler (PIPR) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $386
    • Sunrun (RUN) Raised to Buy at Guggenheim; PT $27
    • Teradata (TDC) Raised to Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $42
    • Terreno Realty (TRNO) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $67
      • Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $75
    • Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM CN) Raised to Buy at Veritas Investment Research Co; PT C$173
  • Downgrades
    • Applied Opto (AAOI) Cut to Sell at B Riley; PT $15
    • Asur (ASURB MM) ADRs Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $300
    • CarMax (KMX) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $35
    • CGI Inc. (GIB/A CN) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT C$113.60
    • CubeSmart (CUBE) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • Dorian LPG (LPG) Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT $30
    • HubSpot (HUBS) Cut to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $450
    • JD.com (JD) ADRs Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $28
    • MidCap Financial (MFIC) Cut to Neutral at Compass Point; PT $12.25
    • Pebblebrook (PEB) Cut to Sell at Compass Point; PT $11.50
    • Potlatch (PCH) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $48
    • Six Flags (FUN) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $20
    • Trex (TREX) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $35
    • TTEC (TTEC) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
    • VerticalScope (FORA CN) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT C$4.25
  • Initiations
    • AMD (AMD) Reinstated Buy at Guosheng Securities; PT $287
    • Ascentage Pharma (6855 HK) ADRs Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $50
    • DigitalOcean (DOCN) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $60
    • Hasbro (HAS) Rated New Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT $100
    • Kodiak AI (KDK) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $14
    • Mattel (MAT) Rated New Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
    • Monopar (MNPR) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $115
    • Pfizer (PFE) Rated New Buy at CMB International; PT $36.16
    • Quebecor (QBR/B CN) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT C$56
    • Rockpoint Gas Storage (RGSI CN) Rated New Buy at Desjardins; PT C$34
      • Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$26
      • Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
      • Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo
      • Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT C$31
    • Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS) Rated New Sector Perform at RBC
    • Spin Master (TOY CN) Rated New Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT C$34
    • SPX Technologies (SPXC) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT $225
    • Super League Enterprise (SLE) Rated New Buy at Aegis; PT $5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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