Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on November 11, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  10:25ET Fed’s Barr speaks; G-7 foreign ministers meeting in Canada

Highlights and News:  

  • US shutdown nears end as Senate passes deal, House readies vote
  • SoftBank Group sold its entire Nvidia stake and CoreWeave warned revenues will be lower
  • Chuck Schumer is facing calls from Democrats to resign as Senate leader, per Axios
  • Polymarket has US gov reopening nearly fully priced in for the end of the week
  • Switzerland moves close to securing improved 15% tariff deal
  • Meta Chief AI Scientist Yann LeCun Plans to Exit to Launch Own Start-Up – FT
  • US bond markets are closed for Veterans’ Day

 

Global stocks steadied as relief over the imminent end of the US government shutdown were tempered by a report that China is developing a rare earth export system
that may complicate access for some American companies. Sentiment is also being dampened by news that Japan’s SoftBank Group said it had sold its entire stake in Nvidia for $5.83 billion in October. Softbank said the sale had nothing to do with Nvidia itself
but was a necessary financing measure to help bankroll envisioned AI investments. Britain’s labor market cooled noticeably in the third quarter as the unemployment rate jumped and wage growth slowed, according to data that will bolster expectations for a BOE
interest rate cut next month. German investor confidence unexpectedly slipped, with the ZEW expectations index dropping to 38.5 in November.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures ease after Monday’s strong gains, as traders backed away from high-priced technology companies after SoftBank Group sold its entire Nvidia stake and CoreWeave warned
revenues will be lower than expected.  Meanwhile the US Senate approved a deal to restore federal funding, ending the longest government shutdown in history. A flood of delayed economic data—from jobs to industrial production—will now be released, likely sparking
market volatility. The deal on the shutdown now heads to the House, where Speaker Johnson said he would like to pass it as soon as Wednesday and send it on to President Trump to sign into law.  Corporate buybacks are likely to provide a tailwind to equities
now that the earnings season is over. US companies had authorized over $1.2 trillion of buybacks this year through October, an increase of 15% from last year, according to Goldman Sachs research — and November is typically one of the strongest months for buybacks.
In corporate news, First Brands’ new CEO testified that within weeks of arriving, he uncovered evidence of massive financial fraud at the auto-parts company. Intel’s Chief Technology / AI Officer has left the company to take a role at OpenAI.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.2%, Nasdaq -0.4%, Russell 2000 -0.2%, DJI +0.05%.

In pre-market trading, Nvidia (NVDA) falls 1.6% after SoftBank Group sold its stake in the chip giant. BigBear.ai (BBAI) jumps 18% after the software firm reported
revenue for the third quarter that beat. reported its third-quarter results and said a data-center delay would impact fourth-quarter expectations. Gemini Space Station (GEMI) shares fall 7% as the crypto exchange founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss reported
a steeper loss than analysts anticipated in its first earnings release since going public. Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is up 4% after the recently merged media company raised its target for job cuts and cost-saving measures. RealReal (REAL) rises 15% after the
online marketplace for luxury goods boosted its revenue guidance for the full year. Rigetti Computing (RGTI) falls 3% after the quantum-computing firm reported revenue for the third quarter that missed. Rocket Lab (RKLB) gains 9% after the space-transportation
company reported revenue for the third quarter that beat. Surmodics (SRDX) rises 48% after saying a federal court rejected a request by the FTC and some state regulators for a preliminary injunction blocking the company’s acquisition by GTCR.

European gauges are higher, led by gains in London’s FTSE 100 which hit record highs as the pound fell after UK jobs data bolstered investor bets on a Bank of England
rate cut next month to spur growth. Consumer products and healthcare sectors outperform, while defense shares falter. Vodafone shares rise as much as 7% in London after the telecommunications operator reported upbeat earnings. Adyen gained after the payments
company raised guidance. Mandatum rose over 7% to hit a fresh record high, after third-quarter earnings beat estimates. Inwit drops as much as 11% after the tower operator said intense competition and limited cash generation are likely to continue impacting
the Italian telecommunications market. Hensoldt shares fell as much as 9.3% after the German defense firm’s guidance disappointed analysts. Hilton Food plunged as much as 25% after cutting its full-year guidance and warned profit progression in the next financial
year may be “difficult.” Stoxx 600 +0.7%, DAX +0.1%, CAC +0.7%, FTSE 100 +0.8%. Luxury +1.9%, Persona Goods +1.5%, Food & Bev +1.5%.  Defense -1.4%.

Shares in Asia were mixed as investors weighed progress from ending the US government shutdown against lingering risks including stretched tech valuations and the prospect
of renewed trade frictions. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gave up early gains to trade little changed. Sentiment weakened after the Wall Street Journal reported that China will fast-track rare earth export approvals for most firms but exclude those linked to
the US military. TSMC fell after posting its slowest monthly revenue growth in over a year. Shares of ZTE and suppliers to Huawei drop as the EU considers banning the two companies from its telecommunications networks. Singapore +1.2%, Vietnam +0.8%, Kospi
+0.8%, Sensex +0.4%, Hang Seng Index +0.2%, Topix +0.1%. ASX 200 -0.2%, Indonesia -0.3%, Taiwan -0.3%, CSI 300 -0.9%, Philippines -1.3%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury futures are slightly lower across the long end of the strip. Cash trading in US Treasuries are closed for the Veterans Day holiday.  The prospect of the
US government reopening prompted expectations that delayed economic reports would soon be published. Morgan Stanley expects September payrolls data to be released about three business days after the shutdown ends with other major economic reports for the month
to take another 1-2 weeks to come out. Treasury auctions resume Wednesday with $42 billion 10-year note sale, followed by $25 billion 30-year bonds Thursday. Monday’s 3-year note auction achieved solid results.

 

METALS: 

Gold extends gains following a bipartisan agreement to end an historic government shutdown in Washington, a decision that will give investors a clearer view of the
Federal Reserve’s interest rate path. A restart of the US government would see the release of long-delayed economic data, which could show a worsening outlook and potentially lead to looser monetary policy that could support gold. Gold remains on track for
its best annual performance since 1979. Spot gold +0.6%, Silver +1%, Copper futures -0.8%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices inch higher as signs of a softer crude market were countered by surging premiums for fuels like gasoline and diesel. India’s top refiners haven’t placed
any orders for Russian oil for next month, sources said, signaling that Western sanctions and trade talks with the US are having a major impact on buying patterns. OPEC is due to release its monthly market analysis on Wednesday, with the International Energy
Agency issuing an annual outlook the same day. The IEA has already forecast a record annual glut for 2026 and will update its view in a monthly snapshot on Thursday. WTI +0.5%, Brent +0.6%, US Nat Gas -0.5%, RBOB +0.7%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is mixed after easing from earlier overnight highs, trying to snap a four-day decline as the US government shutdown neared an end.
The franc rose as Switzerland came close to securing a 15% tariff on its exports to the US. Sterling weakened against the dollar after data revealed British wage growth slowed and unemployment rose in Q3, while a separate report showed consumer spending slowed
in October. US$ Index -0.01%, GBPUSD -0.2%, EURUSD +0.15%, USDJPY is flat, AUDUSD -0.2%, NZDUSD +0.05%, USDCHF -0.45%, USDCAD +0.05%, USDSEK -0.4%, USDNOK -0.5%.

 

 

Bitcoin -0.9%, Ethereum +0.2%. Gemini, the crypto exchange founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, reported a steeper loss than anticipated.

 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Bank of Hawaii (BOH) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $75
    • Cintas (CTAS) Raised to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $184
    • EToro Group (ETOR) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $45
    • First Hawaiian (FHB) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $28
    • Instacart (CART) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $58
    • Kodiak Sciences (KOD) Raised to Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $24
    • Linde (LIN) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $500
    • Outfront Media (OUT) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $24
    • Qorvo (QRVO) Raised to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $93
    • Robinhood (HOOD) Raised to Buy at President Capital Management; PT $179
    • Skyworks (SWKS) Raised to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $73
    • Viasat (VSAT) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $50
  • Downgrades
    • CoreWeave (CRWV) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $110
    • Duolingo (DUOL) Cut to Add at Sealand Securities
    • Host Hotels (HST) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $20
    • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $8
    • Intl Seaways (INSW) Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT $57
    • KE Holdings (2423 HK) ADRs Cut to Hold at UOB Kay Hian; PT $15
    • Kite Realty (KRG) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Marriott Vacations (VAC) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $58
    • Mosaic (MOS) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $26
    • SPS Commerce (SPSC) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $100
    • Telus (T CN) Cut to Sell at Veritas Investment Research Co; PT C$19
  • Initiations
    • Alkermes (ALKS) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $50
    • Argan (AGX) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $397
    • Banco BBVA Argentina SA (BBAR AR) ADRs Rated New Sell at Goldman; PT $15
    • Banco Macro (BMA AR) ADRs Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $111
    • Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL AR) ADRs Rated New Neutral at Goldman
    • Joyy (JOYY) ADRs Rated New Buy at GF Securities; PT $76.09
    • Kosmos Energy (KOS) Rated New Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $1.75
    • Li Auto (LI) ADRs Rated New Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $19
    • Nebius Group (NBIS) Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $143
    • Orosur Mining (OMI CN) Rated New Buy at SP Angel; PT 55 Canadian cents
    • Rockpoint Gas Storage (RGSI CN) Rated New Sector Outperform at Peters & Co
      • Rated New Outperform at CIBC; PT C$30
    • Signet (SIG) Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $150
    • Sunoco (SUN) Corp LLC Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $65

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

Categories:

Charts

Tags:

aucldxesngqqqsp500tyusdvixwtiX

Comments are closed