Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on November 12, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  9:20ET Fed’s Williams speaks; 10:00ET Fed’s Paulson speaks; 10:20ET Fed’s Waller speaks;
 12:15ET Fed’s Bostic speaks; 12:30ET Fed’s Miran speaks; 1:00ET $42 billion 10-year note auction; 4:00ET Fed’s Collins speaks

Highlights and News:  

  • US House lawmakers will vote today to end the government shutdown
  • House will consider a stock trading ban once the government reopens
  • World oil and gas demand could grow until 2050, IEA says in key report
  • Goldman strategists expect emerging markets to deliver higher returns than US stocks
  • Trump to Host Dinner with Wall Street Execs; Jamie Dimon, David Solomon and Larry Fink
  • BESSENT: WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL TARIFF NEWS NEXT COUPLE DAYS
  • BESSENT: GOING TO UNVEIL TARIFF RELIEF ON COFFEE, OTHER ITEMS
  • BESSENT: TRUMP TALKING $2,000 REBATE FOR SUB-$100,000 FAMILIES
  • Harris Poll shows 55% of employed Americans are worried about losing their jobs

 

Global stocks edged up as the US Congress looked set to end a federal shutdown, clearing the path to lift the data blackout that has stoked uncertainty over the US
economic outlook. Soft ADP jobs data on Tuesday has already prompted traders to price in a higher chance of a rate cut.  Positive datapoints in the AI story from Advanced Micro Devices and Hon Hai Precision are also helping sentiment. Meanwhile, a senior researcher
at AI startup DeepSeek warned that a severe labor market crisis is coming as automation wipes out most jobs, according to the South China Morning Post. Citi analysts said that near-term choppiness won’t stop global equities from realizing modest gains through
the middle of 2026. Goldman strategists expect emerging markets to deliver higher returns than US stocks in the next decade. President Trump, who is hosting financial industry executives for dinner tonight, said the US needed skilled workers from abroad.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are in the green, buoyed by expectations of an imminent end to the government shutdown and a Fed rate cut next month. US House lawmakers return to Washington today for
a vote to end the 43-day government shutdown.  Speaker Mike Johnson said he believes the legislation will pass quickly. AI remains front and center, with AMD predicting accelerating sales growth over the next five years, driven by strong demand for its data
center products, and Nvidia partner Hon Hai Precision giving a rosy outlook. Foxconn earnings beat estimates on accelerated AI-related spending. Eli Lilly is dropping CVS’s drug benefit plan for its employees after CVS stopped covering its weight-loss drug
in favor of a rival medication from Novo Nordisk. Out of the 457 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 81% have topped analyst forecasts, while 15% have missed.   

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.6%, Russell 2000 +0.4%, DJI +0.25%.

In pre-market trading, Alcon (ALC) rises 5% after the eye-care company reported core earnings per share for the third quarter that beat. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
gains 5% after the semiconductor company projected accelerating sales growth over the next five years. Bill Holdings Inc. (BILL) is exploring options including a potential sale, people familiar with the matter said. Shares are up 11%. Black Rock Coffee Bar
(BRCB) declines 7% after the operator of drive-thru coffee bars announced its first earnings report since going public in September. Circle Internet (CRCL) falls 4% after the stablecoin issuer reported third-quarter reserve income hurt by a decline in the
reserve return rate. Clearwater Analytics Holdings Inc. (CWAN) is considering a potential sale after receiving takeover interest, according to people familiar with the matter. Shares climb 9%. GlobalFoundries (GFS) gains 6% after the semiconductor-manufacturing
company reported adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat. Oklo shares (OKLO) rises 4% as analysts see the company’s US Department of Energy Nuclear Safety Design Agreement approval accelerating the licensing process. On Holding (ONON) climbs
9% after the Swiss sneaker brand boosted its sales forecast for the year after better-than-expected third-quarter results.

European gauges are mostly higher, as risk appetite remains solid and companies deliver strong earnings. Earnings growth in Europe has been surprisingly strong in the
third quarter, supporting stocks at record highs. With the reporting season nearly over, earnings-per-share growth for the MSCI Europe Index is running at 5.7%, compared with expectations for no growth at all. The luxury sector and banks outperform, while
real estate and financial services lag.  ABN Amro gains as much as 4.9%, with a surprise announcement that the Dutch lender will buy NIBC for €960 million overshadowing a mixed-to-weak third quarter print. SSE shares rose 12% to a record high on the electricity
supplier’s new investment plan. Bayer shares rise as much as 5% after the German company reported better-than-expected results. Edenred shares drop as much as 12% after Brazil’s president issues a decree regarding major regulatory changes to the country’s
meal voucher system. Taylor Wimpey shares fall after warning that uncertainty about potential tax changes in the upcoming UK budget is weakening the housing market. Stoxx 600 +0.7%, DAX +1.3%, CAC +1.3%, FTSE 100 ~flat. Luxury +2.2%, Banks +2%, Autos +1.9%.
Financial Services –0.1, Real Estate -0.1%, Energy is flat.

Shares in Asia were mostly higher, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index up 0.6%. Major benchmarks rose in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, India, Vietnam and the Philippines.
Hang Seng climbed but mainland China indexes drifted lower. Some Chinese e-commerce and consumer stocks gain after JD.com said it generated record sales during the country’s massive annual online shopping gala. Japan’s Topix index jumped over 1% to a record
high, with a rotation away from technology shares after SoftBank shares plunged after exiting their entire Nvidia stake. Vietnam +2.4%, Philippines +1.5%, Topix +1.15%, Kospi +1.1%, Hang Seng Index +0.85%, Sensex +0.7%, Taiwan +0.6%, Nikkei 225 +0.4%, Indonesia
+0.25%, Hang Seng Tech +0.15%. CSI 300 -0.1%, ASX 200 -0.2%, Thailand -1.2%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries rose after soft US jobs data from ADP spurred Fed cut bets, while the anticipated end to the US shutdown added to optimism. Treasury yields are richer
by 1bp-5bp, with the curve steeper, after gapping lower when the cash market reopened following Tuesday’s US holiday. US 10-year yield is richer by around 5bp on the day at 4.07%. Treasury auctions resume with $42 billion 10-year new issue, to be followed
Thursday by $25 billion 30-year bond sale. Fed’s Williams, Paulson, Waller, Bostic, Miran and Collins are scheduled to speak at events.  

 

METALS: 

Gold wavers after a three-day gain, with traders awaiting clues from economic data set to follow the US government’s return from its longest-ever shutdown. The latest
private jobs data pointed at weakness in the American labor market, boosting the likelihood of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, a tailwind for gold. Spot gold ~flat, Silver +0.8%, Copper futures +0.4%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices softened amid expectations that an end to the US shutdown could boost demand in the world’s biggest oil consumer. The International Energy Agency’s latest
outlook signals that oil demand may continue rising into 2050, a sharp shift from its previous reports and a stark reminder of how dominant oil remains in the global economy. At the heart of the CPS’s bullish oil demand outlook is a highly conservative assumption
about the growth rate of EV sales, which accounted for 25% of new car sales globally in 2025, up from 5% in 2020. In its annual World Energy Outlook released today, the IEA forecasts oil demand reaching 113 million bpd by 2050 under current policies—a 13%
rise from 2024. WTI -1.4%, Brent -1.3%, US Nat Gas -1.4%, RBOB -0.6%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar edged up after five days of losses. Concern is rising in Japan about the deepening slump in the yen as it weakens to levels not seen
since February versus the dollar. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama says that she’s examining excessive or disorderly FX moves with a high sense of urgency. It cannot be denied that negative aspects of weak yen are becoming more prominent, she added.
The last time Japan entered the market was in July last year, when the yen was trading around 160 to the dollar. US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD -0.2%, EURUSD -0.05%, USDJPY +0.4%, AUDUSD +0.2%, NZDUSD +0.2%, USDCHF -0.15%, USDCAD -0.05%, USDSEK -0.05%, USDNOK +0.1%.

 

 

Bitcoin +2.2%, Ethereum +3.9%. Visa is testing the ability for businesses to send stablecoins directly to consumers’ cryptocurrency wallets for global payouts. JPMorgan
has started rolling out a deposit token JPM Coin. 

 

 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Apyx Medical Corp (APYX) Raised to Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $8
    • AT&T (T) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc
    • CompoSecure (CMPO) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $20
    • EToro Group (ETOR) Raised to Positive at Susquehanna; PT $55
    • Floor & Decor (FND) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $80
    • Grail (GRAL) Raised to Buy at Guggenheim; PT $100
    • Ichor (ICHR) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $25
    • National Bank of Canada (NA CN) Raised to Buy at Desjardins; PT C$167
    • Outdoor Holding Co (POWW) Raised to Buy at Roth Capital Partners
    • Outfront Media (OUT) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan
    • Progyny (PGNY) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc
    • RLJ Lodging (RLJ) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $9
    • RXO (RXO) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
    • Sea Ltd (SE) ADRs Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $170
  • Downgrades
    • Bath & Body Works (BBWI) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Brighthouse Financial (BHF) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Centerspace (CSR) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Fortinet (FTNT) Cut to Neutral at Daiwa; PT $86
    • SM Energy (SM) Cut to Hold at SWS; PT $23
    • Titanium Transportation (TTNM CN) Cut to Outperform at Raymond James
    • UMC (2303 TT) ADRs Cut to Underperform at BofA
  • Initiations
    • ACV Auctions (ACVA) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $6
    • Asbury Auto (ABG) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $275
    • Atour Lifestyle (ATAT) ADRs Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $57
    • AutoNation (AN) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $250
    • CarMax (KMX) Rated New Underweight at Barclays; PT $28
    • Carvana (CVNA) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $390
    • Cintas (CTAS) Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $200
    • Copart (CPRT) Rated New Underweight at Barclays; PT $32
    • Fastenal (FAST) Rated New Underperform at Bernstein; PT $38
    • Ferguson (FERG) Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $288
    • Group 1 Automotive (GPI) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $510
    • Hesai Group (HSAI) ADRs Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $33
    • Lithia & Driveway (LAD) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $410
    • LKQ (LKQ) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $33
    • Nuvalent (NUVL) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $126
    • OPENLANE (KAR) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $32
    • Penske Automotive (PAG) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $195
    • Republic Services (RSG) Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $205
    • Rollins (ROL) Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $70
    • Sonic Automotive (SAH) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $71
    • Waste Connections (WCN CN) Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $200
    • WM (WM) Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $255
    • WW Grainger (GWW) Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $975

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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Charts

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