Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on November 13, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Jobless Claims, CPI for October is scheduled but is unlikely to be released; Fed
speaker slate includes Daly (8am), Kashkari (10:30am), Musalem (12:15pm) and Hammack (12:20pm)

Highlights and News:  

  • The House voted 222 to 209 Wednesday evening to pass interim funding
  • The Govt Reopening will only last for 79 days until the next (partial) shutdown
  • US freezes flight cuts at 6% as air traffic control absences shrink
  • Record Oil Glut Forecast by IEA Grows Again
  • NBCUniversal Launching New Cable Sports Channel – WSJ
  • “BIG SHORT” INVESTOR MICHAEL BURRY SHUTS DOWN HEDGE FUND
  • FanDuel is launching a prediction market product
  • DALY: INFLATION EX-TARIFFS COMING DOWN, BUT STUBBORNLY

 

Global stocks steadied as investors are looking for the next catalysts after the US House passed a bill to end the longest-ever government shutdown. However it could
still take days, or even weeks, for the federal bureaucracy to fully restart and dig out of the backlog after being closed since Oct. 1. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy told reporters earlier Wednesday he anticipated it could take as long as a week to
start lifting flight restrictions at major airports.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures dip, with the end of the government shutdown already priced in, and the data vacuum likely to persist. It’s unclear just how quickly full government services and operations
will resume, and the White House said October’s employment and Consumer Price Index reports might never be released. The BLS and BEA may skip releases, meaning that they could just combine months together within a single data release. Hedge fund positioning
suggests room for a rally into the year end, according to JPMorgan, though sector rotation indicates caution emerging over this year’s AI euphoria. Investors have shunned tech in recent days in favor of defensive and value shares as traders trimmed their exposure
to risk. Walt Disney (DIS) reported mixed financial results before the bell, with shares down 3% pre-market. Applied Materials (AMAT) posts earnings after the markets close.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.2%, Nasdaq -0.2%, Russell 2000 -0.4%, DJI -0.15%.

In pre-market trading, Ardent Health (ARDT) shares sink 29% after the health-care services firm cut its adjusted Ebitda guidance for the full year. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)
rises 12% after the solar-equipment manufacturer reported third-quarter net revenue that beat. Cellebrite (CLBT) soars 18% after the digital-forensic firm said third-quarter adjusted Ebitda topped the high end of management’s guidance. Cisco (CSCO) rises 7%
after boosting its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year as the firm captures more artificial-intelligence spending. Dlocal (DLO) shares are down 10% after the payment-solutions company reported third-quarter earnings. Firefly Aerospace (FLY)
rises 20% after the spacecraft maker said it plans to resume launches of its Alpha rocket between late 2025 and early next year. Flutter (FLUT) is down 2% after the FanDuel owner reported revenue for the third quarter that missed estimates. Ibotta (IBTA) drops
17% after the digital-marketing-software firm gave a weak fourth-quarter revenue forecast. KinderCare (KLC) sinks 19% after the daycare operator reduced its full-year outlook. Mersana Therapeutics (MRSN) rises 200% after Day One Biopharmaceuticals agreed to
acquire the company. Shares of Day One (DAWN) are down 14%. Sealed Air Corp. (SEE) climbs 21% premarket as Clayton Dubilier & Rice is exploring a potential acquisition of the company. Walt Disney Co. (DIS) slips 3% after reporting sales that fell short of
Wall Street estimates and said a slate of big-budget films, including a new Avatar picture, will weigh on results. Webtoon (WBTN) shares tumble 25% after the company — which lets creators and users make and discover digital comics — forecast revenue for the
fourth quarter that fell short of expectations.

European gauges erased earlier gains to trade mostly lower, as investors looked for fresh catalysts and after some disappointing company results weighed on benchmarks
in the UK and Germany. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index is near lows of the day, erasing an earlier gain of as much as 0.4%. Financial services stocks and the media sector underperform while insurance and tech lead gainers.  UK stocks were hurt by a slump for 3i
Group Plc after the investment firm reported a slowdown in growth during October at discount retailer Action, the largest investment within its portfolio.  Data today showed that UK economic growth almost ground to a halt in the third quarter. Financial services
weigh as Italy’s Azimut Holding SpA plunged after the Bank of Italy found governance deficiencies at one of its units and ordered the asset manager to fix them before it can proceed with a plan to create a new digital bank. ALK-Abello shares jump as much as
14% to a record high after the Danish allergy solutions company boosted its outlook for the year following better-than-expected revenue in Q3. Wizz Air jumped as much as 17% after earnings. Stoxx 600 -0.2%, DAX -0.6%, CAC +0.3%, FTSE 100 -0.8%. Financial Services
-1.7%, Media -0.9%, Food & Bev -0.6%. Insurance and Tech +0.6%.

Shares in Asia advanced, supported by gains in China and Japan. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.4%, with Alibaba and Advantest among key gainers. Chinese battery
stocks surged as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.’s deal with an energy storage-system manufacturer stoked investor excitement about the sector. Chinese solar shares rise after an industry association denied a rumor that the proposal for an industry consolidation
fund was rejected by regulators. Australia’s ASX 200 index fell to its lowest in more than three months, as upbeat jobs data dented expectations for central bank easing next year. Australian real estate shares extend losses. Energy stocks in Asia are underperforming
the broader market, tracking a decline in oil prices amid concerns over a supply glut. CSI 300 +1.2%, Hang Seng Tech +0.8%, Topix +0.7%, Hang Seng Index +0.55%, Kospi +0.5%, Philippines +0.2%. Vietnam -0.03%, Taiwan -0.15%, ASX 200 -0.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields climbed across the curve as a gauge of market volatility signaled the potential for sharp swings in the days ahead. The ICE BofA MOVE Index, which
tracks expected bond-market turbulence, has risen to a one-month high after recently touching a four-year low, suggesting the wave of upcoming data could jolt markets.  New 10-year yield near 4.09% is about 3bp cheaper than Wednesday’s auction result, with
2s10s +1.5bps, 5s30s -1bp. This week’s Treasury auctions conclude with $25 billion 30-year new issue after yesterday’s 10-year note auction tailed by 0.6bp. Focal points of the US session include four scheduled Fed speakers.

 

METALS: 

Gold continued to rise as optimism grows that delayed economic data could bolster the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month. The White House warned that
official jobs and inflation data for October are unlikely to be released. Spot gold rises over 1% as traders weighed the US fiscal outlook following the end of the longest government shutdown in history. The agreement funds federal operations through January
30, but the government is projected to add $1.8 trillion annually to its $38 trillion debt burden. There’s also the prospect of the Federal Reserve injecting further liquidity into the financial system, and a pivot to looser monetary policy that could benefit
precious metals. Spot gold +1%, Silver +1.4%, Copper futures +0.5%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices recover some of yesterday’s sharp losses amid fears of a global supply glut and bearish economic reports from the US. The International Energy Agency increased
its estimates for a record global oil surplus next year for a sixth straight month. Global oil inventories will grow through 2026 as production increases faster than demand for petroleum fuels, adding to pressure on oil prices, the EIA added. The weekly EIA
domestic petroleum inventories report is out later.  WTI +0.6%, Brent +0.6%, US Nat Gas -0.3%, RBOB +0.4%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar extends losses as Trump signed legislation to end the longest government shutdown in US history and markets get access to a barrage
of data that may show the economy has been slowing. Sterling reversed earlier pressure after data showed UK economic growth almost ground to a halt in the third quarter. Aussie$ firms after stronger-than-expected jobs data spurred traders to cut bets on Reserve
Bank rate cuts.  US$ Index -0.2%, GBPUSD +0.25%, EURUSD +0.2%, USDJPY -0.1%, AUDUSD +0.4%, NZDUSD +0.05%, USDCHF -0.3%, USDCAD -0.05%, USDSEK -0.4%, USDNOK -0.3%.

 

 

Bitcoin +1.2%, Ethereum +2.2%. 

 

 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • ATI Inc. (ATI) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $120
    • AutoZone (AZO) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $4,262
    • Baytex Energy (BTE CN) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
      • Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT C$6
    • Booking (BKNG) Raised to Outperform at Wedbush; PT $6,000
    • Carpenter Tech (CRS) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $380
    • Circle Internet (CRCL) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $100
    • Computer Modelling Group (CMG CN) Raised to Buy at Ventum Financial
    • Diversified Healthcare (DHC) Raised to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $5
    • DoorDash (DASH) Raised to Outperform at Wedbush; PT $260
    • Editas (EDIT) Raised to Buy at Chardan Capital Markets; PT $3.50
    • Firefly Aerospace (FLY) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $30
    • Floor & Decor (FND) Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $71
    • Genuine Parts (GPC) Raised to Neutral at Goldman
    • Lennox (LII) Raised to Peerperform at Wolfe
    • News Corp (NWSA) Raised to Buy at CFRA
    • Nike (NKE) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $75
    • Trane Technologies (TT) Raised to Buy at BofA
  • Downgrades
    • Alexandria Real Estate (ARE) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
    • Astria Therapeutics Inc (ATXS) Cut to Market Perform at LifeSci Capital
    • Caledonia Mining (CMCL) Cut to Accumulate at Imara Edward Securities
    • Cooper Cos (COO) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $72
    • Dollar Tree (DLTR) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $103
    • Fastenal (FAST) Cut to Underperform at Wolfe; PT $43
    • HCI Group (HCI) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
    • KinderCare (KLC) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $6
    • Korro Bio, Inc. (KRRO) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright
      • Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
      • Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $8
      • Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
      • Cut to Neutral at Cantor
    • Northwest Healthcare Pro (NWH-U CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank
    • NuVista Energy (NVA CN) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT C$18
    • Potlatch (PCH) Cut to Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $40
    • Thinkific Labs (THNC CN) Cut to Speculative Buy at Canaccord; PT C$4.25
    • WillScot Holdings (WSC) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $21
  • Initiations
    • AbbVie (ABBV) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $280
    • Addus HomeCare (ADUS) Rated New Market Perform at BMO
    • Amgen (AMGN) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $385
    • AppLovin (APP) Rated New Buy at CTBC Securities; PT $720
    • Aveanna Healthcare (AVAH) Rated New Outperform at BMO
    • BrightSpring (BTSG) Rated New Outperform at BMO
    • Bristol Myers (BMY) Rated New Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $45
    • Certara (CERT) Rated New Market Perform at BMO
    • CoreWeave (CRWV) Rated New Buy at Compass Point; PT $150
    • CPS Technologies (CPSH) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $6
    • Doximity (DOCS) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $55
    • DRI Healthcare Trust (DHT/U CN) Resumed Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
    • DSV (DSV DC) ADRs Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $130
    • Eli Lilly (LLY) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $1,165
    • Evolent (EVH) Rated New Outperform at BMO
    • Gilead (GILD) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $140
    • Healthcare Services (HCSG) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $20
    • HealthEquity (HQY) Rated New Market Perform at BMO
    • Hecla Mining (HL) Reinstated Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $15
    • Icon (ICLR) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $175
    • Iqvia (IQV) Rated New Outperform at BMO
    • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
    • LifeStance Health (LFST) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $8
    • Lifeway Foods (LWAY) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $35
    • Medpace Holdings (MEDP) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $600
    • Merck & Co (MRK) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $105
    • Omada Health (OMDA) Rated New Outperform at BMO
    • Pfizer (PFE) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $30
    • Phreesia (PHR) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $32
    • Privia Health (PRVA) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $30
    • Regeneron (REGN) Rated New Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $650
    • Rocket Cos. (RKT) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $25
    • Sotera (SHC) Rated New Outperform at BMO
    • Surrozen (SRZN) Rated New Outperform at LifeSci Capital; PT $36
    • Teladoc (TDOC) Rated New Market Perform at BMO
    • TruBridge (TBRG) Rated New Market Perform at BMO
    • Veeva (VEEV) Rated New Market Perform at BMO
    • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
    • Vital Farms (VITL) Rated New Buy at Benchmark; PT $60
    • Waystar (WAY) Rated New Outperform at BMO
    • Zura Bio (ZURA) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $18

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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