Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET Trade Balance, Import, Exports; 10:00ET Fed’s Miran speaks; 12:45ET Fed’s Barkin
speaks; 1:00ET $16B 20-year bond auction; 2:00ET FOMC Minutes, Fed’s Williams speaks

Highlights and News:  

• Nvidia Earnings Run Into a Market Suddenly Afraid of AI Spending: Analysts Stay Bullish
• Nvidia, Kuwait Investment Authority to Invest as Founding Partners, Executives Say — WSJ
• Fund Manager Survey: Most See AI As A Bubble
• Rotation From Tech Leads Investors to Dividend-Paying Stocks
  
• Senate agreed unanimously to pass release of Epstein files bill
• US Mint struck its last circulating penny on November 12 due to rising cost (3.69 cents each)
• Scottish fans celebrate first qualification for World Cup since 1998 after beating Denmark
• Curaçao made history as the smallest nation by population to qualify for a soccer World Cup

Global stocks are higher following a $1.6 trillion global equity selloff but retain a defensive posture ahead of closely watched Nvidia results. Enormous AI spending
commitments should guarantee good business for the chipmaker in the year ahead yet growing concerns about the long-term sustainability of those returns are beginning to unsettle investors. Meanwhile, the Dutch government lifted its temporary control over chipmaker
Nexperia, returning full authority to its Chinese parent company and easing tensions with Beijing that were starting to disrupt global automotive production. China escalated its retaliation against Japan, suspending imports of seafood and halting approvals
for new films — the latest signs that their diplomatic spat is far from over. UK inflation fell for the first time in seven months, with consumer prices increasing 3.6% y-o-y in October. The White House expects a framework agreement to end the Russia/Ukraine
war to be reached by all sides by the end of the month, possibly even this week, according to Politico. Russia and the US aren’t discussing any new war settlement plans, according to TASS.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures get a small bounce ahead of Nvidia earnings, which will give investors a sense of where the billions of dollars being spent on artificial intelligence are going. Analysts
expect Nvidia to show more than 50% growth in both net income and revenue in its fiscal third quarter. The chipmaker alone has accounted for almost 20% of S&P 500 gains this year. Bank of America reiterates buy, saying Nvidia remains undervalued given its
dominance. FOMC minutes, three Fed speakers and a batch of retailer earnings are also due. Target trimmed its profit forecast for 2025, citing markdowns and soft demand in key merchandise areas. In corporate news, the US government is providing $1 billion
in backing to Constellation Energy’s plan to restart its Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania
as the Trump administration pushes to add more atomic power on the electric grid.  OpenAI and Intuit agreed to a multiyear partnership in which Intuit will deepen its use of OpenAI
models and make applications available on ChatGPT.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.25%, Russell 2000 +0.25%, DJI +0.05%.  E-Mini holds a short-term negative tone below its
50dma.

In pre-market trading, Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) tumbles 37% after the company’s Phase 3 trial of mitapivat in patients 16 and older with sickle-cell disease met
one primary endpoint but missed another. Constellation Energy Corp. (CEG) is up 2% as its plan to restart its shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear plant. DoorDash (DASH) rises 2% after Jefferies upgraded the stock to buy from hold. Dycom Industries (DY) gains
6% after saying it will acquire Power Solutions, one of the Mid-Atlantic’s largest electrical contractors serving data centers. La-Z-Boy (LZB) shares are up 11% after the home furniture retailer reported both sales and adjusted earnings per share for the second
quarter that beat. Lowe’s (LOW) rises 6% as adjusted EPS and gross margin for the third quarter topped expectations. Plug Power Inc. (PLUG) sinks 19% on the green hydrogen company’s plans for a private offering of $375 million in convertible senior notes due
2033. SEMrush Holdings (SEMR) soars 69% after the WSJ reported that Adobe is nearing a $1.9 billion deal to acquire the company. Unity Software (U) gains 8% after the company announced it is working with Epic Games to bring Unity games into Fortnite.

SPX held exactly off the 5% retrace from it’s late October all-time high (with the Fear & Greed Index at an intraday 9, which is very unusual). 

JPMorgan strategists see room for Nvidia to zoom higher on a beat-and-raise and recommend buying call spreads. Barclays strategists, meanwhile, note the stock has posted negative one-week
returns following four of the last five earnings releases. The options markets implies a 7% swing in either direction post-earnings.

European gauges are mixed as investors looked ahead to Fed minutes and Nvidia earnings. Media and travel stocks outperformed while utilities and defense fell. NKT shares
jump over 15% to a fresh record high, after the Danish cable manufacturer reported its latest earnings. SMA Solar surges 13% as Jefferies upgrades the renewable energy equipment firm to a buy. European defense companies slipped as Politico reported that the
White House is on the brink of unveiling a major new peace agreement with Russia that officials say will bring war with Ukraine to an end. Kering shares drop as much as 4% after its CEO said the company must reduce its reliance on its flagship Gucci brand.
Vivendi SE shares slump 12% after Le Monde reported that the holding company could escape having to pay to compensate minority shareholders over the recent split of the group. Stoxx 600 +0.1%, DAX +0.15%, CAC -0.1%, FTSE 100 -0.1%. Media +1.5%, Travel & Leisure
+1.3%, Construction +0.9%. Defense -2.4%, Utilities -0.9%.

Shares in Asia were mostly lower, as investors stayed cautious ahead of Nvidia’s earnings and lingering doubts over the durability of the AI-driven rally. The MSCI
Asia Pacific Index declined 0.2%, with Samsung, Xiaomi and TSMC among the biggest drags. Regional markets fluctuated through the morning as investors weighed tech valuation concerns against the possibility that strong Nvidia earnings could restore rally momentum.
Chinese seafood suppliers climbed as Japan’s dropped after a report that Beijing has informed Tokyo it will halt imports of Japanese seafood, following the apparent failure of initial efforts to ease bilateral tensions. South Korean antitrust regulators were
said to have visited the Seoul offices of Arm Holdings this week as part of an inquiry into its licensing practices, following a complaint by Qualcomm. Hang Seng Tech -0.7%, Vietnam -0.65%, Taiwan -0.65%, Kospi -0.6%, Hang Seng Index -0.4%, Nikkei 225 -0.3%,
ASX 200 -0.25%. Singapore was flat. Thailand +0.2%, CSI 300 +0.4%, Indonesia +0.5%, Sensex +0.6%, Philippines +1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries steadied, keeping yields within a basis point of Tuesday’s closing levels ahead of today’s 20-year bond auction and FOMC meeting minutes release.  UK front-end
outperforms as more easing by Bank of England is priced in after October UK services inflation slowed more than forecast. US 10-year is little changed near 4.11% with 2s10s curve +1 bp. Treasury auctions resume with $16 billion 20-year bond sale, with $19
billion 10-year TIPS ahead Thursday. Primary dealers rebuffed a NY Fed push to use the standing repo facility, complicating efforts to ease liquidity strains in the $12 trillion market for repurchase agreements. Foreign holdings of US Treasuries dipped slightly
in September from record highs, though biggest holder Japan increased its portfolio.   

METALS: 

Gold extended its gains for a second consecutive day as investors awaited the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes during a pivotal week for US
economic data, while a recent poll highlighted the metal as one of the most preferred assets for the coming year. When compared against major global currencies, global investors expect bullion to post the second-best returns next year, with only the yen a
better bet, a Bank of America survey showed. On Thursday, the September US jobs report would be in focus after being delayed because of the long government shutdown, but it may do little more than confirm earlier private market surveys pointing to a cooling
labor market. Spot gold +1%, Silver +2.6%, Copper futures +1%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices fell as a report showing rising US stockpiles helped ease concerns over geopolitical risks escalating from Iran to Russia and Venezuela. US crude stockpiles
rose by 4.4 million barrels last week, the API reported. That would take total holdings to the highest level in more than five months if confirmed by the EIA today. The supply buildup may help cushion the impact of US sanctions against Russian producers Rosneft
PJSC and Lukoil PJSC that are set to kick in within days. Ahead of that, some major Asian buyers have paused at least some purchases. As well as Russian sanctions, Iran recently briefly seized an oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, while the US is amassing
a significant military presence near OPEC producer Venezuela. Russia is a major supplier of diesel, and concerns over disruptions to its shipments have sent key diesel market spreads surging, while also supporting crude prices. WTI -2.5%, Brent -2.4%, US Nat
Gas +2.6%, RBOB -2.6%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar edges marginally firmer, with the yen and kiwi at the bottom of G-10 scoreboard. Yen hit its weakest level against dollar since January
following Japanese Finance Minister Katayama’s remarks. Katayama said she reconfirmed with Bank of Japan Governor Ueda and Growth Strategy Minister Kiuchi that they should monitor market trends with a high sense of urgency. Sterling heads for a fourth daily
drop as data showed that UK inflation fell for the first time in seven months in October. Spot moves were modest after CPI headlines, even though money markets ramped up bets for Bank of England interest-rate cuts. US$ Index +0.2%, GBPUSD -0.2%, EURUSD +0.02%,
USDJPY +0.45%, AUDUSD -0.3%, NZDUSD -0.5%, USDCHF +0.25%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK +0.25%, USDNOK +0.4%.

Bitcoin -0.7%, Ethereum +0.2%. Investors pulled more than half a billion dollars from BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust on Tuesday, the largest single-day outflow
since the fund’s debut. Bitcoin has fallen almost 30% from a record high set in October, entering oversold territory on a technical RSI measure.  

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Amalgamated Financial (AMAL) Raised to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $28
• Amer Sports (AS) Raised to Buy at Nomura
• Curbline Properties (CURB) Raised to Buy at Citi
• DoorDash (DASH) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $260
• Freeport (FCX) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $47
• Gladstone Capital (GLAD) Raised to Buy at B Riley; PT $22
• Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $22
• Insulet (PODD) Raised to Buy at UBS
• Lithium Americas (LAC CN) Raised to Hold at Canaccord
• Medtronic (MDT) Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $111
• Relmada Therapeutics (RLMD) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities
• Simmons First (SFNC) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $22
• Telus (T CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank; PT C$21
• Wesco (WCC) Raised to Outperform at RBC
• Zions (ZION) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $60
• Downgrades
• Axalta (AXTA) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $30
• BellRing Brands (BRBR) Cut to Neutral at BofA; PT $28
• Canadian Solar (CSIQ) Cut to Underperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $21
• Gitlab (GTLB) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $44
• GoHealth (GOCO) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• Home Depot (HD) Cut to Neutral at KGI Securities; PT $320
• Inter&Co (INTR) Cut to Market Perform at Itau BBA; PT $10
• Molson Coors (TAP) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $50
• PDD (PDD) ADRs Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $135
• Portland General (POR) Cut to Neutral at UBS
• Quebecor (QBR/B CN) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank; PT C$54
• Tanger (SKT) Cut to Neutral at Citi
• Tim Brasil (TIMS3 BZ) ADRs Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $24.53
• Initiations
• AB InBev (ABI BB) ADRs Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $75
• Cipher Mining (CIFR) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $30
• Extreme Networks (EXTR) Rated New Buy at BofA; PT $24
• Hydreight Technologies (NURS CN) Rated New Speculative Buy at Canaccord
• IGM Financial (IGM CN) Reinstated Neutral at CIBC; PT C$61
• Insight Enterprises (NSIT) Rated New Hold at Canaccord; PT $100
• IREN Ltd (IREN) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $80
• MP Materials (MP) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $77
• Nebius Group (NBIS) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $175
• Nuvation Bio (NUVB) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $12
• PMET Resources Inc (PMET CN) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT C$4.70
• Pony AI (PONY) ADRs Rated New Buy at UOB Kay Hian; PT $26.10
• Power of Canada (POW CN) Reinstated Neutral at CIBC; PT C$75
• Praxis Precision (PRAX) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $424
• Ramaco (METC) Rated New Sell at Goldman; PT $16
• Rapport Therapeutics (RAPP) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $47
• Riot Platforms (RIOT) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $25
• Shore Bancshares (SHBI) Rated New Outperform at Hovde Group; PT $19
• Sionna Therapeutics (SION) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $50
• VTV Therapeutics (VTVT) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $40
• Whitefiber (WYFI) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $37

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke