Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on November 21, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET Fed’s Barr speaks, Fed’s Miran speaks, Hourly Earnings; 8:45ET Fed’s Jefferson speaks;
9:00ET Fed’s Logan speaks; 9:45ET S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, Composite PMI; 10:00ET U. of Mich. Sentiment, Wholesale Inventories, Wholesale Trade Sales; 11:00ET Kansas City Fed Services Activity

Highlights and News:  

  • Global Stocks Head for Worst Week Since April
  • US is open to lifting tariffs on EU goods such as beef – FT
  • Trump administration’s proposed 28-point Russia-Ukraine peace plan –

    Axios
  • Ukraine, European Allies Reject Key Parts of US-Russia Peace Plan
  • US THREATENS TO CUT INTEL, WEAPONS SUPPLY TO UKRAINE: REUTERS
  • Hardship withdrawals from 401k due to cost of living increases are at an all-time high, per Fidelity
  • Gunmen storm Catholic school in Nigeria and kidnap more than 100 children
  • Global coffee prices plunge after Trump removes tariffs on Brazil
  • Bitcoin facing the worst month since the crypto collapse of 2022
  • Eric Swalwell announced on Thursday that he is running for governor of California in the 2026 election

 

Global stocks eased at the end of a risk-off week, as global financial assets were roiled by concerns about lofty technology valuations and an uncertain US monetary-policy
outlook. Some banks, such as HSBC, are starting to look at countries with lower exposure to AI, including India and Indonesia, as alternatives. Trump’s 28-point peace plan would force Ukraine to cede large chunks of territory taken by Russia, cap the size
of its military and lift sanctions on Moscow over time. It was delivered to President Zelenskiy yesterday but headlines this morning show Ukraine and European allies reject key parts of the plan. The Kremlin said it has not received the peace plan and that
Russia prefers discrete talks, according to TASS. Japan’s Cabinet approved a $135.4 billion stimulus package today to help spur the economy through expansionary government spending and to relieve the impact of higher prices. The US is open to lifting tariffs
on EU goods such as beef and other foods to help keep grocery prices affordable, the FT reported.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures reverse earlier overnight losses after the Fed’s Williams said he still sees room for a near-term rate cut as downside risks to employment have increased. He added that
underlying inflation continues to trend down and sees post-tariffs inflation back on track to 2% in 2027. Sentiment remains fragile with stocks headed for their worst week since April as worries over lofty valuations deepened a pullback from the market’s most
speculative corners, including technology shares and Bitcoin. Morgan Stanley economists said they no longer expect a December rate cut, citing the bounce back in payrolls for September lowering the risk of a higher unemployment rate. Today’s November options
expiration, which includes $1.7 trillion in S&P 500 contracts and $725 billion notional in single-stock options, has the potential to fuel erratic moves. Oracle is emerging as the credit market’s barometer for AI risk and the price of the company’s CDS have
surged.  In corporate news, Netflix, Comcast and Paramount Skydance submitted bids for Warner Bros. Discovery by the Nov. 20 deadline. The Fed’s Barr, Williams, Collins, Miran, Jefferson and Logan are scheduled to speak at events today.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.5%, Russell 2000 +0.8%, DJI +0.6%

In pre-market trading, AnaptysBio shares (ANAB) drop 12% after GSK’s subsidiary, Tesaro, initiated litigation against the US biotech company in the Delaware Chancery
Court. Azenta shares (AZTA) jump 16% after the life sciences company reported revenue from continuing operations for the fourth quarter that beat. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks (MSTR -1.7%, MARA -1.1%, GLXY -2.4%) tumble as Bitcoin is on track for its worst
monthly performance since a string of corporate collapses rocked the wider crypto sector in 2022. Elastic shares (ESTC) are down 12% after the software company’s results and forecast were seen as disappointing, especially relative to peers like Datadog and
Dynatrace. Enviri shares (NVRI) rise 39% after Veolia agreed to buy Enviri’s US hazardous waste firm Clean Earth for an enterprise value of $3b. Gap Inc. (GAP) rises 7.3% after the company reported stronger-than-expected sales. Ross Stores shares (ROST) rise
3.6% after the discount retailer increased its full-year EPS forecast by more than expected.

US Premarket Movers of Note:

  • NVRI US (+32): Veolia to Buy Enviri’s Hazardous Waste Unit in New US Push
  • GAP US (+5.6%): Gap Sales Surpass Estimates on Celebrities, Collaborations
  • INTU US (+3.5%): Intuit Rises as Quarter Results Beat, CFO Signals Confidence
  • QS US (-2.2%): QuantumScape’s Holme Reports Stock Transactions
  • ALAB US (-2.8%): Astera Labs Reinstated Market Perform at Raymond James
  • CIFR US (-3.7%): Cipher Mining Prices $333M of Addl Sr Sec Notes
  • UGI US (-4.7%): UGI 4Q Revenue $1.20B Vs. $1.24B Y/y
  • ESTC US (-12%): Elastic 2Q Beat Modest; AI Gains Yet to Scale Up: React

The last time NVIDIA gapped up 5%+ on earnings and closed down on the day was after its August 2011 report when it was trading at a split adjusted price of 33 cents/share.
This type of post-earnings gap-up-then-fade has only happened twice for NVDA since its 1999 IPO; in 2011 it occurred on a day when QQQ still closed up 0.89%

European gauges recoup most of the earlier losses as technology shares led the declines, while the biggest outperformers are food, beverage and media stocks. European
defense shares fall President Zelenskiy said he’s agreed to work on a peace plan drafted by the US and Russia and expects to talk with Trump in the coming days about the proposals. Babcock drops as much as 6.7% following its first-half results, and amidst
wider weakness in defense stocks. Tullow Oil plummeted as much as 32% to a new record low as analysts said there has been a lack of progress on the refinancing of its mountain of debt. CTS Eventim surges as much as 12% after the events firm delivered adjusted
Ebitda growth above analyst expectations. Canal+ shares rise as much as 9.6%, after the broadcaster announced it has retained exclusive rights to the Champions League and two other UEFA cup competitions in France. Stoxx 600 -0.3%, DAX -0.4%, CAC ~flat, FTSE
100 -0.05%. Food & Bev +1.5%, Media +1.3%. Energy -2%, Defense -1.9%, Technology -1.9%.

Shares in Asia fell as technology shares followed a sharp selloff in US peers, driven by renewed concerns over stretched AI valuations. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index
fell 1.7%, bringing the week’s losses to nearly 4%. Benchmarks in Taiwan and South Korea led declines in the region, while Philippines bucked the trend to gain more than 1%. Asia’s leading chip suppliers to Nvidia led losses on the regional gauge. TSMC and
Samsung Electronics dropped more than 4% each before paring some of those losses. Kospi -3.8%, Taiwan -3.6%, Hang Seng Tech -3.2%, CSI 300 -2.4%, Nikkei 225 -2.4%, Hang Seng Index -2.4%, ASX 200 -1.6%, Sensex -0.5%, Vietnam -0.05%, Topix -0.05%. Philippines
+1.1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold small gains across the curve, supported by bigger advance in European bonds.   Gilts outperform after weaker-than-expected UK November PMI services
gauge fueled wagers on further BOE interest-rate cuts. Focal points of US session include S&P Global US manufacturing and services PMIs and six Fed speakers.  US yields are 1.5bp to 2.5bp richer with curve spreads within a basis point of Thursday’s closing
levels; the 10-year near 4.06% is 2bp richer on the day.

 

METALS: 

Gold edges slightly lower after a mixed US jobs report tempered hopes for an interest rate cut in December. The latest gains, driven by the so-called debasement trade,
or a retreat from sovereign debt and currencies, may have become overstretched. “The latest debasement trade is based on hopes rather than reality,” said Carsten Menke, head of next-generation research at Julius Baer Group. While the phenomenon remains a long-term
driver of gold as fiscal concerns mount among G-7 countries, some corrections and consolidation are warranted, he said. Spot gold -0.2%, Silver -2%, Copper futures +0.2%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices slip. The US sanctions effective today could strand nearly 48 million barrels of Russian crude oil at sea, forcing dozens of tankers to urgently seek new
destinations in the latest disruption to global oil trade flows. With the restrictions now in effect, Indian refiners are seeking replacement supplies, booking oil tankers for cargoes from the Middle East at a pace that has pushed freight rates for the route
to near a five-year high. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is proposing to open new areas off of California, Florida and Alaska to crude drilling that would dramatically expand the sale of oil and natural gas rights.  WTI -0.9%, Brent -0.7%, US Nat Gas
+0.7%, RBOB -0.5%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the yen found some support on Friday as Japanese officials stepped up their verbal intervention to stem the currency’s decline. The yen popped
higher after Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said intervention was a possibility to deal with excessively volatile and speculative moves. Sterling inches higher with investors anxiously awaiting Britain’s upcoming budget, a major test for the nation’s currency
and bond markets. India’s rupee fell to a record low against the dollar, pressured by uncertainty around a potential US trade deal. US$ Index +0.02%, GBPUSD +0.1%, EURUSD -0.1%, USDJPY -0.4%, AUDUSD +0.05%, NZDUSD +0.3%, USDCHF +0.15%, USDCAD -0.05%, USDSEK
+0.2%, USDNOK +0.3%.

 

 

Bitcoin -4%, Ethereum -4.6%.  Bitcoin dropped below $82,000 as investors continued pulling back from the market’s riskiest segments and is on track for its worst
monthly performance since 2022.  Ether fell as much as 7.6% to below $2,700 and a host of smaller tokens nursed similar declines. The total market value of virtual coins dropped below $3 trillion for the first time since April. Crypto is just 0.4% of institutional
asset allocation but had record 2025 retail inflows of $46B.

 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Block (XYZ) Raised to Neutral at Compass Point; PT $73
    • Cognizant (CTSH) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
    • Cushman & Wakefield (CWK) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $18
    • DNOW (DNOW) Raised to Positive at Susquehanna; PT $16
    • Helmerich & Payne (HP) Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $28
    • Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC) Raised to Buy at Fubon; PT $46
    • PROG Holdings (PRG) Raised to Neutral at BTIG
    • WillScot Holdings (WSC) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $22
  • Downgrades
    • Aecom (ACM) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $143
    • Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $8
    • Bath & Body Works (BBWI) Cut to Market Perform at Telsey; PT $17
      • Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $18
      • Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $17
      • Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $19
    • Exact Sciences (EXAS) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $105
      • Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
      • Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $105
      • Cut to Neutral at BTIG
    • Hologic (HOLX) Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $79
    • Jacobs (J) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $146
    • Northland Power (NPI CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$19
    • Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT $157
    • T-Mobile (TMUS) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
  • Initiations
    • AMD (AMD) Reinstated Outperform at Raymond James; PT $377
    • ARM Holdings (ARM) ADRs Reinstated Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Astera Labs (ALAB) Reinstated Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Boyd Gaming (BYD) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $86
    • Broadcom (AVGO) Reinstated Outperform at Raymond James; PT $420
    • Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $23
    • Certara (CERT) Rated New Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $10
    • Chord Energy (CHRD) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Elanco Animal Health (ELAN) Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $27
    • Greenbrier (GBX) Rated New Sell at Goldman; PT $38
    • IBM (IBM) Reinstated Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $360
    • Intel (INTC) Reinstated Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Interparfums (IPAR) Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT $103
    • MapLight Therapeutics (MPLT) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $30
      • Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley
      • Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $32
      • Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $28
    • Marvell Technology (MRVL) Reinstated Strong Buy at Raymond James
    • Minerals Technologies (MTX) Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $75
    • Mistras Group (MG) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $16
    • Nvidia (NVDA) Reinstated Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $272
    • Penn Entertainment (PENN) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $15
    • Riley Exploration (REPX) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • SiTime (SITM) Rated New Buy at Loop Capital; PT $350
    • TIC Solutions (TIC) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $17
    • Ucore Rare Metals (UCU CN) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT C$12.69
    • Vertiv Holdings (VRT) Rated New Accumulate at Phillip Secs; PT $188
    • Waystar (WAY) Rated New Hold at Freedom Capital; PT $40
    • Workday (WDAY) Rated New Market Perform at Raymond James
    • Zeta (ZETA) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $26
    • Zoetis (ZTS) Rated New Sector Weight at KeyBanc

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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