Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on November 24, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET
National Activity Index for October; 10:30ET Dallas Fed Manufacturing for November; 1:00ET 2-Year Note Auction

Highlights and News:  

  • Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Sees Stock Buying Opportunity Into 2026
  • TRUMP ON UKRAINE TALKS: SOMETHING GOOD MAY BE HAPPENING
  • UKRAINE’S YERMAK SAYS FRAMEWORK PEACE DOCUMENT PREPARED WITH US
  • Italy achieved its first upgrade from Moody’s Ratings in more than 23 years
  • FED’S WALLER: “MY CONCERN IS LABOR MARKET, I’M ADVOCATING RATE CUT”
  • JPMorgan Says Brent Crude May Fall Into $30s in 2027 on Surplus

 

Global stocks are modestly in the green after paring early tech-fueled gains as Bitcoin resumed its decline, signaling that risk sentiment remains fragile after a
volatile week. Sentiment was buoyed by good AI news out of Asia and rising investor confidence in a likely Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December. Strong demand for Alibaba’s relaunched AI app is a positive sign for the AI narrative, while comments
from NY Fed’s Williams on Friday led investors to boost the odds of a rate cut next month to around 70%.  Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson believes the recent stock-market pullback is coming to an end and views the current environment as a buying opportunity
heading into 2026. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Trump’s proposed Nov. 27 deadline to secure Ukraine’s support for a US-backed peace plan isn’t set in stone and could drift into the following week. Talks in Geneva made progress toward a
deal, with the two sides drafting “an updated and refined peace framework” and agreeing to continue intensive work on joint proposals.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are firm in choppy overnight trading. With Thanksgiving and Black Friday approaching, Tuesday’s September retail sales data are forecast to reflect a slowdown, as consumers
continue to feel the pinch from elevated prices. Wednesday’s jobless claims—covering the key November survey week—will carry extra weight, with the Federal Reserve relying more heavily on alternative labor-market signals in the absence of payrolls data. Near-term
weakness offers an opportunity to add long exposure into 2026, Morgan Stanley says, after two-thirds of the largest 1000 stocks by market cap saw more than 10% drawdown. Goldman Sachs strategists, meanwhile, recommend hedges to protect overweight stances on
stocks, saying there is limited upside and greater downside in equities. Hedge funds acquired US equities for a third straight week, with long buys outpacing short sales by 1.5 to 1, according to Goldman Sachs’ Prime Desk. Flows in single stocks reflect further
sector rotation, most notably into health care, materials and consumer discretionary, they noted. Short-term momentum chasing in high-beta stocks has reversed massively and is now running below levels prior to the September run-up, according to Deutsche Bank
strategists.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.8%, Russell 2000 +0.25%, DJI +0.2%

In pre-market trading, Alibaba ADRs (BABA) gain 3.9% after the company said its re-branded Qwen AI tool hit 10 million downloads in the first week after it became available
to the public. Biogen Inc. (BIIB), a drugmaker with an Alzheimer’s treatment on the market, rises 4% after Novo Nordisk said a pill version of Ozempic failed to slow the progression of Alzheimer’s disease. Bristol Myers (BMY) climbs 3.8% after peer developer,
Bayer AG, said an experimental stroke-prevention drug showed positive results in a late-stage study. Green Dot (GDOT) jumps 17% after entering into agreements to be acquired by Smith Ventures and CommerceOne Financial Corporation in a deal that will split
the company’s operations between the two buyers. MP Materials shares (MP) are up 2.7% after BMO upgraded its recommendation to outperform. Performance Food Group (PFGC) falls 2% after US Foods says it’s no longer pursuing a combination with the company. WeRide
ADRs (WRD) gain 9% after it narrowed its third-quarter net loss on increased robotaxi orders.

Nvidia’s revenue growth is unprecedented: Nvidia’s revenue reached a record $57.0 billion in Fiscal Q3 2026. This is 2.5 times the combined sales of Intel and AMD,
totaling $22.9 billion. At the same time, Nvidia’s net income reached $31.8 billion, exceeding Intel’s and AMD’s combined revenue by $8.9 billion. Since Q1 2023, Nvidia’s profit has skyrocketed 1,872% while revenue jumped +588%. By comparison, Intel sales
rose +16.5% and AMD sales increased +73% during the same period.

European gauges are mixed after reversing early gains following their worst weekly drop since early August. autos and travel shares outperform, while defense and health
care sectors decline. Rheinmetall led a drop in defense stocks after Ukraine signaled progress in reconciling its position with the US on a potential peace deal with Russia. Ubisoft shares surged as much as 15% before paring gains after the French video game
producer announced that it had finalized a deal for Tencent to inject €1.16 billion into its Vantage Studios unit. Bayer jumped as much as 12% after the German company said an experimental stroke-prevention drug showed positive results in a late-stage clinical
study. Julius Baer shares drop over 5% after the Swiss lender said 2025 profit would be lower than last year. EU ministers are expected to press senior U.S. trade officials on Monday to fully implement the July EU-US trade agreement, including further reductions
in US tariffs on European steel and the complete removal of duties on EU products like wine and spirits. Stoxx 600 ~flat, DAX +0.5%, CAC -0.1%, FTSE 100 +0.2%. Travel & Leisure +1.1%, Autos +1%. Defense -1.9%, Healthcare -0.7%.

Shares in Asia were mostly higher on optimism over a rebound in AI-linked Chinese tech shares with Alibaba gaining 4.7% in Hong Kong after a strong debut for its AI
app. The company’s shares led a rally in peers after saying its rebranded AI app Qwen hit 10 million downloads in the week after it became available to the public. The Hang Seng Tech Index jumped more than 3% intraday after a four-week losing run. Chinese
biotech stocks rally on sector optimism following Innovent’s inclusion into the Hang Seng Index and positive results from Kelun-Biotech’s latest antibody-drug conjugate cancer therapy.  Flights from China to Japan are set to see a cancellation rate of 21.6%
on Nov. 27, the highest in a month, Chinese media the Paper reported. Australian mining shares rise after BHP Group said it was no longer considering a revived takeover of Anglo American. Chinese chip stocks drop as US officials begin early discussions on
whether to let Nvidia sell its H200 artificial intelligence chips to China, dampening sentiment for local substitution makers. Hang Seng Tech +2.8%, Hang Seng Index +2%, Indonesia +1.8%, ASX 200 +1.3%, Vietnam +0.8%, Singapore +0.6%. CSI 300 -0.1%, Thailand
-0.1%, Kospi -0.2%, Sensex -0.4%. Japan was closed for a holiday.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are mixed in early US trading with long-end tenors outperforming, flattening 2s10s and 5s30s curves by `2bps ahead of the 2-year note auction this afternoon. 
Auction cycle begins a day earlier than usual ahead of Thursday’s US Thanksgiving Day holiday. European bonds trade steady, including Italian debt after the country’s upgrade by Moody’s Ratings on Friday. 10-year yield is near session lows around  4.05% is
about 2bp lower on the day. Auction cycle also includes $70 billion 5-year Tuesday and $44 billion 7-year Wednesday.

 

METALS: 

Gold steadied as traders weighed the chance of another Federal Reserve interest-rate cut before the end of the year. Spot gold traded near $4,075 an ounce, after
a modest weekly loss. Several US central bank officials have recently sounded a cautious note on monetary policy, though New York Fed President John Williams said he sees room for a reduction in borrowing costs in the near term. Gold pared losses on Friday
after Williams’ comments but still ended the session lower. Spot gold +0.25%, Silver +0.3%, Copper futures -0.4%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Crude oil is slightly lower following the biggest weekly loss since early October, as traders monitor US-Ukraine talks for any signals that a Russia peace agreement
might boost global crude supply. The US and Ukraine are preparing to resume negotiations on a revised peace proposal before a Thursday deadline imposed by President Donald Trump, following agreement to rework an initial draft that had drawn criticism for being
overly concessional to Russia. Global oil markets face daily surpluses of 2.8 million barrels next year, and 2.7 million barrels in 2027, in the absence of intervention, JPMorgan’s head of commodities research said in a note. “Under these conditions, Brent
prices are likely to slip below $60 in 2026, drop into the low $50s by the final quarter and close the year with a $4 handle,” Natasha Kaneva says. “OPEC will stick with a watch-and-wait approach until there is more clarity” regarding threats to supply from
alliance members Russia and Venezuela, head of commodities strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said. WTI -0.15%, Brent -0.1%, US Nat Gas -2%, RBOB +0.4%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar inches lower, with volumes trailing recent averages as month-end flows started to emerge. Month-end flow dynamics are the main driver
of spot price action as the US Thanksgiving holiday brings forward corporate demand, traders said. The yen falls against every Group-of-10 peer as investors mull the risk of currency intervention as they contended with Japan-China political tensions and Tokyo’s
large stimulus plan. Japan’s defense minister, visiting a military base close to Taiwan, said plans to deploy missiles to the post would move forward as tensions smolder between Tokyo and Beijing. The euro firms as the EU said no deal was expected today to
lower tariffs on steel and other products during talks with senior US trade officials. Sterling is little changed. The UK will cut energy bills by 25% for more than 7,000 manufacturers beginning in 2027 as the government attempts to charm businesses ahead
of a tax-raising budget this week. US$ Index -0.1%, GBPUSD +0.03%, EURUSD +0.25%, USDJPY +0.3%, AUDUSD -0.1%, NZDUSD -0.05%, USDCHF -0.2%, USDCAD +0.03%, USDSEK -0.2%, USDNOK -0.1%.

 

 

Bitcoin -2%, Ethereum -1.1%.  Bitcoin begins the week on the back foot following a prolonged selloff that has put the token on track for its worst month since 2022.

 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $20
    • Baidu (BIDU) ADRs Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $188
    • Barrick Mining (ABX CN) Raised to Buy at BofA
    • BioSyent Inc (RX CN) Raised to Buy at Bloom Burton & Co; PT C$13.50
    • Booking (BKNG) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $6,000
    • Carvana (CVNA) Raised to Outperform at Wedbush; PT $400
    • Cipher Mining (CIFR) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $18
    • CleanSpark (CLSK) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan
    • Cummins (CMI) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $628
    • Eversource (ES) Raised to Buy at Janney Montgomery; PT $79
    • Flutter (FLUT) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $228
    • Fortuna Mining (FVI CN) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
    • Inspire Medical (INSP) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $110
    • International Paper (IP) Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $44
    • Magnera (MAGN) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $16
    • Merck & Co (MRK) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $125
    • Morgan Stanley (MS) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe
    • MP Materials (MP) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $75
    • Peyto Exploration (PEY CN) Raised to Buy at Desjardins; PT C$24.50
    • RB Global (RBA CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank; PT C$174.75
    • Tourmaline Oil (TOU CN) Raised to Buy at Desjardins; PT C$68
    • Tractor Supply (TSCO) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $64
    • Vita Coco (COCO) Raised to Overweight at Stephens; PT $58
    • Vornado Realty (VNO) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $41
  • Downgrades
    • Argenx (ARGX BB) ADRs Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Brandywine Realty (BDN) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
    • Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ CN) Cut to Hold at Desjardins; PT C$52
    • Exact Sciences (EXAS) Cut to Hold at Benchmark
      • Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $105
    • Frontline PLC (FRO) Cut to Neutral at Clarksons; PT $26.34
    • JFrog (FROG) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $65
    • Kimbell Royalty Partners (KRP) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • National Grid (NG/ LN) ADRs Cut to Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $70
    • PureCycle (PCT) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $9
    • QuantumScape (QS) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $12
  • Initiations
    • Abivax (ABVX FP) ADRs Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $140
    • Adagene (ADAG) ADRs Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $9
    • Agios (AGIO) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $32
    • Airbnb (ABNB) Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane
    • Amazon (AMZN) Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane
    • Ascentage Pharma (6855 HK) ADRs Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $51
    • BeOne Medicines (6160 HK) ADRs Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $400
    • Bicycle Therapeutics (BCYC) ADRs Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $10
    • Cadence Design (CDNS) Rated New Outperform at KGI Securities; PT $390
      • Reinstated Buy at Citi; PT $385
    • Capital Clean Energy Car (CCEC) Rated New Buy at Clarksons; PT $23
    • CareCloud Inc (CCLD) Rated New Buy at ThinkEquity; PT $8
    • CG Oncology (CGON) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $62
    • Clean Harbors (CLH) Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $228
    • EBay (EBAY) Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane
    • Etsy (ETSY) Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane
    • Expedia (EXPE) Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane
    • Ferrari (RACE) Rated New Outperform at Grupo Santander; PT $494.02
      • Reinstated Buy at Goldman
    • Fulcrum Therapeutics (FULC) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $14
    • GFL Environmental (GFL CN) Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT C$71
    • Granite Construction (GVA) Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $109
    • Hyatt (H) Reinstated Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $178
    • Ideaya Biosciences (IDYA) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $59
    • Jacobs (J) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $158
    • MannKind (MNKD) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $9
    • Marvell Technology (MRVL) Rated New Hold at HSBC; PT $85
    • MeiraGTx (MGTX) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $20
    • Meta (META) Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $800
    • Navan (NAVN) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $25
      • Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $19
      • Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $25
      • Rated New Buy at Loop Capital; PT $25
      • Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $25
      • Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $26
      • Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $25
      • Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $25
      • Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $29
    • Nuvalent (NUVL) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $140
    • Nuvation Bio (NUVB) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $11
    • Passage Bio (PASG) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets; PT $68
    • Primoris Services (PRIM) Rated New Sell at Goldman; PT $117
    • Regeneron (REGN) Rated New Buy at HSBC; PT $890
    • Republic Services (RSG) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $255
    • Samsara (IOT) Rated New Buy at Arete; PT $50
    • Shopify (SHOP CN) Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane
    • Stellantis (STLA) Reinstated Neutral at Goldman
    • Synopsys (SNPS) Rated New Outperform at KGI Securities; PT $585
      • Reinstated Buy at Citi; PT $580
    • T1 Energy (TE) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $7
    • Viridian Therapeutics Inc (VRDN) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $41
    • Waste Connections (WCN CN) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT C$285.02
    • WM (WM) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $256
    • Xencor (XNCR) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $29

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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