Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on December 4, 2025

 

TODAY’S GAME PLAN: 
from the trading desk, this is not research

 

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:
7:30ET Initial Jobless Claims, 10:00ET Factory and Durable Goods Orders, 12:00ET Fed’s Bowman to speak on bank supervision and regulation

 

Highlights and News:  

  • US Challenger Job Cuts YoY rose 23.5% vs. 48.0% surveyed
  • The European Commission has launched a full-scale antitrust investigation into Meta Platforms Inc. over its AI features in WhatsApp
  • UK probe finds Putin personally ordered the 2018 Salisbury Novichok attack
  • Amazon is preparing to expand its nationwide delivery network and give up its long-standing partnership with the U.S. Postal Service
  • The Pentagon’s independent watchdog said US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s use of commercial messaging app Signal to discuss strikes on Yemen could have put American troops at risk

Global stocks are higher, continuing their December climb behind strength in tech stocks. Investors are awaiting an initial jobless claims report in the US for
further confirmation of a softening labor market and a rate cut at next week’s Fed meeting. Meanwhile, political tensions persist as Europe seeks to use $105 billion of frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine. Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council,
Dmitry Medvedev, said the move could be tantamount to an act justifying war. In the US, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are set to meet with Ukrainian officials in Miami to further discussions on a peace plan.

 

 

EQUITIES: 

 

US equity futures are modestly higher, buoyed by tech gains as all Mag seven stocks are up in pre-market trading with the exception of Apple. Following a softer
Challenger corporate Job Cuts reading, markets will look to Initial Jobless reports at 8:30ET today as well as additional economic data on Friday for final indications before next week’s Fed decision. Salesforce gained in after-hours trading yesterday after
noting success selling AI tools and a bullish outlook for revenue that topped analyst estimates.

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.05%, Russell 2000 -0.1%, DJI +0.1%

In pre-market trading, Dollar General (DG) rises 4% after the company raised its full-year outlook,
highlighting value-focused retailers are winning over consumers hunting for deals. Salesforce Inc. (CRM) is up 1.9% after the software company gave an outlook for revenue in the current period that topped analysts’ estimates, suggesting it is persuading customers
to buy its AI tools. Snowflake (SNOW) falls 8% after the software company issued a forecast for operating margin in the current quarter that fell short of the average analyst estimate. Axogen (AXGN) rises 5% after the provider of medical and surgical instruments
said the FDA approved its biologics license application for its Avance nerve graft to treat peripheral nerve discontinuities. Bill Holdings Inc. (BILL) gains 3% after activist investor Barington Capital Group has taken a stake in business payments firm. UiPath (PATH)
rises 8% after the software company’s third-quarter results beat expectations.

 

European gauges are higher following gains in auto and industrial divisions. Shares of Mercedes-Benz
Group and Porsche rose after Bank of America Corp upgraded its view on carmakers. Health care and utility sectors were the worst performing in the region, with Royal Philips NV sinking as much as 9.1% after Citigroup analysts flagged tariff and China challenges,
later paring some of its losses. In the UK construction industry output readings showed slowing activity, coming in at 39.4 for November, a sharp drop from October’s 44.1 mark. The Stoxx 600 is just over 1% shy of its November record, with sentiment reflecting
relatively positive for equities and the overall economy. Stoxx 600 +0.35%, DAX +0.7%, CAC +0.3%, FTSE 100 +0.2%.


 

Shares in Asia advance for a third straight day, with tech in Japan leading the region and furthering
the country’s outperformance versus the region. SoftBank and Keyence Corp are among the largest contributors. Semiconductors in Korea are showing signs of weakness with stocks like Samsung and LG Energy lagging. Chinese chip stocks, on the other hand, extended
their gains as Cambricon Technologies plan to triple its AI chips in 2026 to win market share and feed demand left by Nvidia’s forced exit. Asian robotics stocks were lifted following the report that the Trump administration is considering an executive order
to focus efforts on the industry. Kospi -0.2%, Topix +1.9%, Taiwan ~flat, Vietnam +0.3%, Indonesia +0.3%, ASX 200 +0.3%, CSI 300 +0.3%, Hang Seng Index +0.9%. Thailand -0.1%.

 

 

FIXED INCOME:   

Treasury yields are higher overnight, retracing part of Wednesday’s sharp rally that followed weaker ADP data showing a 32,000 drop in private payrolls and bolstering
odds of a December 10 Fed cut. The move is led by the front end, with 2s and 10s backing up more than the 30-year yield, which both fell less in yesterday’s rally and is now rising less in the reversal as long-end yields remain less sensitive to near-term
policy repricing. Fed speak is in focus today with FOMC member Bowman due at 12:00ET.10-year Treasury yield:+0.44%, to 4.082%,2-year yield: +0.57% to 3.504% , 30-year yield: +0.19% to 4.74%.

 

 

 

 

 

METALS: 

 

In metals, gold and copper are broadly flat in the overnight session as investors book profits and turn cautious ahead next week’s Fed meeting and Friday’s PCE inflation
data. Silver is down 1.8% on profit-taking after its recent spike, with gold still screening just below overbought territory while silver remains technically stretched despite the pullback. Gold:-0.28% , Silver:-1.81%, LME Copper:+0.01%

 

 

 

ENERGY:  

Oil prices rose overnight on geopolitical tensions from Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and uncertainty around Ukraine peace talks. Natural gas
remained relatively flat after Wednesday’s 3.2% surge to 3-year highs of $4.995, as the market consolidated following the rally driven by record LNG flows and colder weather forecasts. The oil gains reflect ongoing geopolitical risk premiums while natural
gas paused after reaching 35-month highs on supply-demand fundamentals. WTI +0.41%, Brent +0.51%, US Nat Gas -0.1%, RBOB +0.26%. 

 

 

 

 

 

CURRENCIES: 

 

Currency markets were mostly flat overnight with DXY, GBP, NZD, and EUR showing little movement. AUDUSD rose above 0.66 to its highest since late October on
hawkish RBA repricing that now sees a 25bp hike by August. Yen strengthened on reports the Japanese government won’t oppose a BOJ December rate hike, now priced at 91% probability. The yuan slipped after China set its daily reference rate for the currency
at a level that was significantly weaker than estimates, its most forceful signal since 2022. US$ Index -0.01%, GBPUSD -0.02%, EURUSD -0.01%,JPYUSD: +0.37%, AUDUSD +0.11%, NZDUSD -0.14%, CHFUSD:+0.1%, CADUSD +0.15%, SEKUSD +0.26%, NOKUSD +0.3%.

 

 

Bitcoin -0.48%, Ethereum -0.39%.

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, TradingView

 

 

Bryan Duong

Trader, Americas

Categories:

Charts

Tags:

aucldxesngqqqsp500tyusdvixwtiX

Comments are closed