Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on December 9, 2025

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   10:00ET JOLTS Job Openings; 1:00ET 10-year note auction

Highlights and News:  

  • TRUMP SEES CUTTING RATES AS LITMUS TEST FOR FED CHAIR: POLITICO
  • Ukraine to share revised peace plan with US today
  • US to allow Nvidia H200 chip shipments to China, Trump says
  • Paramount’s Warner Bid May Face Fewer Hurdles
  • Goldman clients have grown more cautious on AI and US stocks
  • Trump’s executive order banning new wind projects was ruled illegal

 

Global stocks edged higher in anxious trading ahead of an expected rate cut from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, as central banks around the world are starting
to tilt away from the idea of lower interest rates. The focus will be on what Powell will say tomorrow and how many rate cuts the dot plot will lay out for 2026. Elsewhere, Trump warned that Maduro’s “days are numbered” as the president of Venezuela, amid
speculation the US may carry out land strikes on that country. The president has also suggested that he could strike other countries over illegal drug trafficking beyond Venezuela. Ukraine will share a revised peace plan with the US today that is aimed at
ending the war, after talks in London between President Zelenskiy and the leaders of France, Germany and Britain. Zelenskiy told reporters after the meeting that there was still no agreement on the issue of giving up territory – which Moscow has pushed for.
Mexico is set to hike tariffs on China in hopes of easing tensions with the US.

 

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures fluctuated, with investors on edge ahead of the Fed meeting and Oracle results tomorrow. The broad expectation is for a semi-hawkish tone from the Fed. Trump said support
for immediately cutting interest rates would be a ⁠requirement for anyone he chose to
lead the Federal Reserve, according to Politico. Equity positioning improved across US large and small cap indexes last week with $10.7b of new risk added to the S&P 500, according to Citigroup strategists. Nvidia shares are higher in premarket trading after
Trump granted the chipmaker permission to ship its H200 AI chip to China in exchange for a 25% surcharge. Beijing has told companies to avoid using US technology, leaving it unclear whether Trump’s decision would lead to new sales. Meanwhile, Trump signaled
he could impose fresh tariffs on agricultural products, including Canadian fertilizer and Indian rice.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P ~flat, Nasdaq -0.05%, Russell 2000 flat, DJI flat.

In pre-market trading, Nvidia (NVDA) is up 0.9% after the FT reported that China’s regulators are discussing ways to limit permits for access to its H200 semiconductors.
Almonty Industries (ALM) slumps 15% after the tungsten-mining company priced 18 million shares at $6.25 each for $112.5 million in gross proceeds. Ares Management (ARES) rises 7% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the stock will replace Kellanova in the S&P
500, effective Dec. 11. Caleres (CAL) slumps 18% after the footwear manufacturer reported adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that missed. CVS Health (CVS) climbs 2% after the company boosted its adjusted profit and revenue forecast for 2025.
Geopark (GPRK) slumps 12% after Parex Resources halted discussions with the company regarding its proposed acquisition. Graphic Packaging (GPK) falls 5% after the packaging company cut its outlook for full-year. Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI) slips 5% after
the closeout retailer reported comparable sales for the third quarter that missed. Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) falls 3% after the luxury builder beat analysts’ estimates for quarterly orders, while providing full-year guidance for 2026 that fell below expectations.

European gauges are mixed, with defense shares gaining as Germany prepares to authorize a record amount of orders for military gear and services. UK retail sales increased
just 1.4% year-on-year in November, the weakest pace since May, according to the British Retail Consortium. German exports rose slightly in October, beating expectations for a decline thanks to European Union trade, while shipments to the US and China fell
sharply.  Orsted shares jump as much as 4.4% before paring gains after a US federal judge ruled President Trump’s executive order banning new wind projects is illegal. Rusta gains as much as 13% after the Swedish discount retailer reported second-quarter earnings
that beat. Thyssenkrupp plunged as much as 13% before paring losses after the German industrial firm’s 2026 guidance missed estimates. Gerresheimer shares drop as much as 8.9% after Morpheus Research published a report on the German company and said it’s short
the stock. Stoxx 600 -0.1%, DAX +0.3%, CAC -0.5%, FTSE 100 ~flat. Insurance +1%, Defense +0.9%, Media +0.7%. Luxury -1.6%, Basic Resources -0.7%.

Shares in Asia were mostly lower, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index falling 0.5%, snapping a five-day win streak. SK Hynix was among the biggest drags after Korea Exchange
issued a warning over the rapid rise in its shares. Chinese equities slumped as a lack of fresh stimulus signals from the Politburo meeting disappointed investors. China’s chip-related stocks largely decline after Trump granted Nvidia permission to ship its
H200 artificial intelligence chip to China. Australian stocks fell after hawkish comments from Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock. Japanese shares fluctuated after a powerful earthquake hit the country’s northeast region overnight. Shares of Indian rice
companies decline after President Trump signaled the US could impose fresh tariffs on their goods in response to what he says is dumping by exporters. Indonesian coal companies fell after the country’s finance minister said the government plans to charge 1%-5%
export duty. Hang Seng Tech -1.9%, Hang Seng Index -1.3%, Indonesia -0.6%, Sensex -0.5%, CSI 300 -0.5%, ASX 200 -0.45%, Taiwan -0.4%, Vietnam -0.4%, Kospi -0.3%. Topix ~flat, Nikkei 225 -0.1%, Philippines +0.5%, Thailand +0.7%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

US Treasury yields hovered near a two-month high as traders held off on making big bets ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final interest-rate decision of 2025. Money
markets now see two cuts in 2026 after a likely 25-basis-point reduction tomorrow. Bond investors are positioning for a shallow easing cycle, reducing their exposure to long-duration Treasuries, and shifting into intermediate maturities.  US 10-year yields,
little changed around 4.165%, with the curve roughly flat. Treasury coupon auctions cycle continues with $39 billion 10-year reopening, a day earlier than normal to avoid coinciding with FOMC communications. Cycle concludes Thursday with $22 billion 30-year
bond reopening.

 

METALS: 

Gold is steady as traders shifted focus from the US Federal Reserve’s near-certain rate cut this week to the pace of its monetary easing in 2026. Swap traders are
expecting a quarter-point rate cut by the Fed but are now leaning toward two further moves by the end of 2026, down from three signaled barely a week ago. Kevin Hassett, a top contender to become Fed chair, stated that it would be irresponsible to outline
a plan for interest rates over the next six months. PIMCO expects gold to continue to climb, with central banks holding more gold than Treasuries.  Spot gold +0.2%, Silver +0.8%, Copper futures -1.2%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices are flat after a 2% drop in the previous session, with markets keeping a close eye on peace talks to end Russia’s war in Ukraine and a looming decision
on US interest rates. China ramped up buying of Saudi Arabian oil after the kingdom cut prices to the lowest level in five years as a global surplus grows. The oil market is headed for a “super glut” next year as a wave of new supplies may run up against sluggish
demand, according to global commodities trader Trafigura. Exxon expects $35 billion in cash flow growth by 2030, an increase of about 17% from what it was projecting a year ago.  WTI +0.03%, Brent +0.02%, US Nat Gas -3%, RBOB +0.05%. 

 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is marginally mixed against most FX majors, with traders bracing for risks around tomorrow’s FOMC and next week’s US payrolls report.
Australian dollar swings higher and bond yields extend climb after the RBA indicates the end of its easing cycle and outlines scenarios in which a rate hike could occur. The euro inches lower as French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu faces a key vote on the
social security budget today that risks fueling political turbulence and uncertainty over how the country will plug holes in its public finances. US$ Index +0.05%, GBPUSD -0.03%, EURUSD -0.05%, USDJPY +0.3%, AUDUSD +0.2%, NZDUSD +0.15%, USDCHF -0.05%, USDCAD
-0.1%, USDSEK -0.3%, USDNOK -0.05%.

 

 

Bitcoin -0.7%, Ethereum -0.3%.  The CFTC will allow Bitcoin, Ether and dollar-pegged stablecoin USDC to be used as collateral for derivatives trades.  

 

 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

  • Upgrades
    • BCE (BCE CN) Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT C$37
    • Colgate-Palmolive (CL) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $88
    • Eaton Corp (ETN) Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $413
    • Intel (INTC) Raised to Outperform at KGI Securities; PT $52
    • Lyell Immunopharma (LYEL) Raised to Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $45
    • Otis Worldwide (OTIS) Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $105
    • RPM International (RPM) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $132
    • Star Bulk (SBLK) Raised to Buy at Pekao Investment Banking; PT $29.80
    • Viking Holdings (VIK) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $78
    • Wave Life Sciences (WVE) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $27
  • Downgrades
    • Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $21
    • Alibaba (BABA) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Arete; PT $172
    • Confluent (CFLT) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
      • Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $31
      • Cut to Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $31
      • Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $31
      • Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $31
      • Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT $31
      • Cut to Hold at Needham
    • DHT Holdings (DHT) Cut to Hold at Pekao Investment Banking; PT $13.60
    • FMC Corp (FMC) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $13
    • JD.com (JD) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Arete; PT $32
    • Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) Cut to Neutral at Goldman
    • PDD (PDD) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Arete; PT $130
    • SLM (SLM) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $31
    • Vertiv Holdings (VRT) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
    • Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) US Cut to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
  • Initiations
    • AerCap Holdings (AER) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $159
    • Agilent (A) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $170
    • Align Technology (ALGN) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $170
    • Alvotech (ALVO) Rated New Underweight at Barclays; PT $5
    • Amer Sports (AS) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $49
    • American Air (AAL) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $16.75
    • Amneal Pharma (AMRX) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $15
    • Amphastar (AMPH) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $30
    • ANI Pharma (ANIP) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $100
    • Bausch Health (BHC CN) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $8
    • Bruker Corp (BRKR) Reinstated Sell at Goldman; PT $40
    • Cardinal Health (CAH) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $243
    • Cencora (COR) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $400
    • Collegium (COLL) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $58
    • Danaher (DHR) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $265
    • Delta Air Lines (DAL) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $80
    • Dentsply (XRAY) Rated New Underweight at Barclays; PT $12
    • Doximity (DOCS) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $63
    • Elanco Animal Health (ELAN) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $30
    • Envista Holdings (NVST) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $24
    • Galaxy Digital (GLXY) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $60
    • GoodRx Holdings (GDRX) Rated New Underweight at Barclays; PT $3
    • HealthEquity (HQY) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $118
    • Henry Schein (HSIC) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $86
    • Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $48
    • Idexx Labs (IDXX) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $850
    • Lattice Semi (LSCC) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
    • LifeStance Health (LFST) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $8
    • Ligand Pharma (LGND) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $270
    • McKesson (MCK) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $960
    • Mettler-Toledo (MTD) Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $1,475
    • Micron (MU) Rated New Buy at HSBC; PT $330
    • Organon (OGN) Rated New Underweight at Barclays; PT $7.50
    • Owlet (OWLT) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
    • Pacira BioSciences (PCRX) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $27
    • Phathom Pharma (PHAT) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $16
    • Phreesia (PHR) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $26
    • Progyny (PGNY) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $29
    • Reddit (RDDT) Rated New Buy at China Merchants; PT $300
    • Revvity (RVTY) Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $105
    • Roblox (RBLX) Rated New Hold at Freedom Capital; PT $99
    • Sarepta (SRPT) Rated New Outperform at Wedbush; PT $32
    • Southwest Air (LUV) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $43
    • Talkspace (TALK) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $3.50
    • Tarsus Pharma (TARS) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $100
    • Teladoc (TDOC) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $8.50
    • Teva (TEVA IT) ADRs Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $35
    • Thermo Fisher (TMO) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $685
    • United Airlines (UAL) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $125
    • Urban Outfitters (URBN) Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $83
    • Viatris (VTRS) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $15
    • Vor BioPharma (VOR) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $43
    • Xeris Biopharma (XERS) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $9
    • XOMA Royalty (XOMA) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets; PT $76
    • Zoetis (ZTS) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $136

 

 

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

David Wienke

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Charts

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