Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  US economic calendar blank for the session. 8:15ET Fed’s Waller speaks; 9:05ET Fed’s Williams
speaks; 12:30ET Fed’s Bostic speaks; 1:00ET $13 billion 20-year bond reopening

Highlights and News:  

• US READIES NEW RUSSIA SANCTIONS IF PUTIN REJECTS PEACE DEAL
• Trump adds seven countries, including Syria, to full travel ban list
• Oil jumps 2% as Trump’s Venezuela blockade stokes uncertainty
• Trump said Venezuela is “completely surrounded by the largest Armada ever assembled in the History of South America”
• Japan’s exports to the US rose for the first time since the tariffs hit in April
• Spirit Airlines Eyes Merger With Frontier Amid Restructuring
• FED’S WALLER: RATES STILL 50-100 BASIS POINTS ABOVE NEUTRAL
  
• Border Patrol agents returned to Chicago in force on Tuesday after a month-long slowdown

Global stocks are mixed to moderately positive reflecting caution ahead of central bank decisions and US data. Sentiment is tempered by upcoming central bank meetings
(ECB, BoE) and lingering global uncertainty. Focus is on rotation away from overextended tech/AI names toward other sectors. Official data released today revealed that UK inflation dropped far more sharply than expected in November, falling to 3.2%—its lowest
level since March—from 3.6% in October. This has solidified market expectations for an interest rate cut by the Bank of England on Thursday. German business sentiment unexpectedly fell in December, a survey showed, as Europe’s largest economy continues to
struggle to growth. Japan’s exports to the US rose for the first time since Trump announced baseline tariffs in early April, helping power the biggest gain in overall exports since February. On Tuesday, Trump extended the list of countries under a complete
travel ban, adding seven more nations—including Syria—and barring their citizens from entering the United States.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are edging higher but a festive rally seems increasingly elusive, with traders struggling to find fresh catalysts. There are also signs that the recent rotation trade
is fading, with the Russell 2000 index of small caps down 2.8% over three sessions. In corporate news, Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners withdrew its backing of Paramount Skydance’s hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros., which it is planning to reject in favor
of a deal with Netflix. Lennar shares are down in premarket trading after the homebuilder forecast orders, deliveries and margins all below expectations. Amazon is the top gainer among Mag 7 stocks as the firm is in talks with OpenAI for it to adopt Amazon’s
Trainium chip. Waymo is said to be in discussions to raise more than $15 billion at a valuation near $100 billion. Spirit Airlines is in revived talks to merge with Frontier, sources said, in a deal that may rescue the bankrupt airline. Micron Technology is
scheduled to report after the close, with analysts expecting the memory-focused chipmaker to benefit from strong pricing trends.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.4%, Russell 2000 +0.4%, DJI +0.25%.

In pre-market trading, Avantor (AVTR) slips 3% after Jefferies cut the life-sciences firm to underperform.  Children’s Place (PLCE) slides 32% after the kids apparel
retailer posted third quarter sales that fell 13% from the year-earlier period. Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) climbs 7% as the company is in merger discussions with Bankrupt Spirit Aviation Holdings. Hut 8 (HUT) surges 21% after the Bitcoin miner and data
center operator signed a 15-year, $7 billion lease with Fluidstack for 245 megawatts of IT capacity at its River Bend data center campus. Lennar (LEN) falls 4% after the homebuilder forecast first quarter orders, deliveries and margins all below expectations.
Netflix (NFLX) rises 1.3% as Warner Bros. Discovery plans to reject Paramount Skydance’s takeover bid due to concerns about financing and other terms. Warner Bros. (WBD) shares are down 1.4%, while Paramount (PSKY) drops 1.8%. Worthington Enterprises (WOR)
falls 8% after the maker of aluminum propane cylinders posted fiscal second-quarter profit that disappointed. Blue Owl Capital will not back a $10b deal for Oracle’s next data center, the Financial Times reports. The agreement will not go forward after negotiations
stalled, the report says. ORCL -2.7%.

European gauges are mixed with UK stocks outperforming as the slowest inflation print in eight months weakened the pound and all but seals an interest-rate cut at the
Bank of England on Thursday. Energy stocks are leading the advance, tracking gains in oil prices after a report that the US is preparing a fresh round of sanctions on Russia’s energy sector. DBV Technologies SA soared as much as 47%, as the company said its
experimental skin patch met its primary endpoint in a late-stage trial for peanut-allergic children. Hansa Biopharma shares plummet as much as 28% in Stockholm after disappointing results from a trial aimed at improving kidney function. IPF shares rise as
much as 8.7% after the company extended the deadline for BasePoint to make a firm takeover offer. Stoxx 600 +0.3%, DAX -0.1%, CAC -0.3%, FTSE 100 +1.5%.  Basic Resources +1.6%, Energy +1.6%, Defense +1.2%. Luxury -1.3%, Autos -1.2%.

Shares in Asia were mixed to higher, buoyed by a rebound in technology shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.3%, snapping a two-day decline. Samsung Electronics,
SK Hynix and Tencent Holdings were among the biggest boosts. Sentiment around AI valuations appears to have steadied following a two-day slide that dragged the regional tech gauge down by more than 4% through Tuesday. Asia saw a busy day for stock market listings.
Hong Kong’s largest licensed cryptocurrency exchange HashKey Holdings Ltd. fell on its first day of trading. Chinese travel stocks climb after local media reported on a surge in booking orders for the coming holidays. Shares of Apple suppliers rose following
a report that the US tech giant is planning a major expansion of its iPhone product line. Asian defense shares fall, following losses in US and European firms, after Ukraine leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the US agreed to make security guarantees legally
binding through a Congress vote. Stocks were muted in Japan even though data showed its exports to the US rose for the first time since the tariffs hit in April. The report showed exports overall gained 6.1% in November from a year earlier, led by semiconductor
parts and medical goods, with shipments to the US and the EU jumping 8.8% and 19.6% respectively. CSI 300 +1.8%, Kospi +1.4%, Hang Seng Index +0.9%, Philippines +0.4%, Nikkei 225 +0.3%, Topix -0.3%, Taiwan -0.5%, Indonesia -0.1%, Sensex -0.15%, ASX 200 -0.15%,
Vietnam -0.3%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are cheaper across the curve, unwinding Tuesday’s gains, with the long-end underperforming. US yields are 2bp-4bp higher with the curve steeper, widening
2s10s and 5s30s spreads by about 1bp. 10-year yield rises 3 bps to 4.17% ahead of a 20-year auction. Treasury’s $13 billion 20-year bond reopening has WI yield near 4.815%, about 11bp cheaper than last month’s, which tailed by 0.2bp; there’s a $24 billion
5-year TIPS reopening Thursday. IG dollar bond issuance slate empty following a blank session Tuesday; syndicate desks are believed to be done for the year. The Fed’s Austan Goolsbee told CNN that he expects solid growth in 2026 and believes rates can fall
further if inflation trends toward 2%.

METALS: 

Gold edges higher, topping $4,325 per ounce, while silver extends its remarkable rally with a 4% gain, reaching the $66 level. Gold continues to be supported by dovish
Federal Reserve expectations, economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Silver is being driven by tight supply, strong industrial demand and rising speculative interest. Markets await crucial US inflation data this week, with Consumer Price Index data
due on Thursday and Personal Consumption Expenditures data on Friday. Platinum hit its highest level in 17 years. The EU being set to scrap the 2035 combustion engine ban is clearly giving the sector a lift, analysts said. Spot gold +0.5%, Silver +3.5%, Copper
futures +1%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices rallied more than 2% after Trump ordered a complete blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, adding that he now regarded
the nation’s rulers as a foreign terrorist organization. It remains unclear how many tankers will be impacted, how the U.S. intends to enforce the blockade on the sanctioned vessels, and whether Trump will again deploy the Coast Guard to intercept ships, as
he did last week. Trump also said Venezuela is “completely surrounded by the largest Armada ever assembled in the History of South America.” Venezuela’s production currently representing less than 1% of global supplies. Oil recovered from its lowest close
in almost half a decade as the US prepares new measures against Russia.  The US is preparing a fresh round of sanctions on Russia’s energy sector should Putin reject a peace agreement with Ukraine. The new measures may be unveiled as soon as this week. Mexico’s
oil refining hit an 11-year high, with plants processing 1.35 million barrels a day last week.  WTI +1.9%, Brent +1.8%, US Nat Gas +1.6%, RBOB +1.1%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is firm with sterling at the bottom of the G-10 FX leaderboard after UK headline, core and service CPI readings were lower-than-expected
in November. UK inflation slipped to its lowest level in eight months, a bigger-than-expected drop that traders saw as all but sealing an interest-rate cut at the Bank of England on Thursday. The yen is weaker with BOJ’s monetary policy decision looming on
Dec. 19. Japan’s exports gained 6.1% last month, topping estimates, with shipments to the US rising for the first time since Trump announced baseline tariffs in April. The turnaround in shipments to the US helped power the biggest gain in overall exports since
February. That supports the Bank of Japan’s view that uncertainties over the impact of the duties have eased, helping pave the way for a widely expected interest rate hike later this week. India’s central bank stepped in to support the rupee, propelling it
to its biggest gain in seven months. US$ Index +0.4%, GBPUSD -0.6%, EURUSD -0.2%, USDJPY +0.5%, AUDUSD -0.1%, NZDUSD -0.1%, USDCHF +0.1%, USDCAD +0.2%, USDSEK +0.3%, USDNOK +0.3%.

Bitcoin -0.9%, Ethereum -0.9%.   

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Airbnb (ABNB) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $170
• Ally Financial (ALLY) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $52
• Church & Dwight (CHD) Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT $87
• Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $102
• Clearway Energy (CWEN/A) Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT $38
• FactSet (FDS) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $307
• Gaming and Leisure (GLPI) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities
• Gap (GAP) Raised to Outperform at Telsey; PT $32
• Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $33
• Glencore (GLEN LN) ADRs Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT $12.90
• Guidewire (GWRE) Raised to Buy at DA Davidson; PT $246
• Herc Holdings (HRI) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc
• Hyatt (H) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $200
• Invesco (IVZ) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $31
• Motorola Solutions (MSI) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
• New Jersey Resources (NJR) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities
• P&G (PG) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $179
• Pacs Group (PACS) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $44
• Recursion Pharma (RXRX) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $11
• Rockpoint Gas Storage (RGSI CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank
• Rollins (ROL) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $72
• SQM (SQM/B CI) ADRs Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $79
• Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $18
• Superior Plus (SPB CN) Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT C$9
• Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $195
• Travel + Leisure Co (TNL) Travel + Leisure Co Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $70
• UL Solutions (ULS) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $97
• Urban Outfitters (URBN) Raised to Outperform at Telsey; PT $98
• Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) Raised to Outperform at Telsey; PT $66
• Downgrades
• Avantor (AVTR) Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT $9
• Bally’s (BALY) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $11
• Brown-Forman (BF/B) Cut to Sell at Citi; PT $27
• Clarivate (CLVT) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $3
• Constellation Brands (STZ) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $154
• CyberArk (CYBR) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $474
• Essential Utilities (WTRG) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $38
• Fortinet (FTNT) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $75
• General Motors (GM) Cut to Hold at CFRA
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Cut to Hold at CFRA
• Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $32
• MGM Resorts (MGM) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $38
• PVH (PVH) Cut to Market Perform at Telsey; PT $82
• Sweetgreen (SG) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $7
• Initiations
• AAR (AIR) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $100
• Aeromexico (AEROMEX* MM) ADRs Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $35
• ADRs Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $27
• ADRs Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $25
• ADRs Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $30
• ADRs Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $27
• Agilysys (AGYS) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
• Amicus (FOLD) Reinstated Buy at Citi; PT $17
• Amplitude (AMPL) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $14
• Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $95
• Asana (ASAN) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
• Atlassian (TEAM) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $220
• Autodesk (ADSK) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $365
• Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN) Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $10
• Braze (BRZE) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $45
• Celsius Holdings (CELH) Rated New Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Rated New Hold at Freedom Capital; PT $56
• Coinbase (COIN) Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $340
• D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) Rated New Outperform at Wedbush; PT $35
• Dlocal (DLO) Rated New Outperform at Itau BBA; PT $21
• Docusign (DOCU) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $88
• Dutch Bros (BROS) Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $77
• Eastern Bankshares (EBC) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $22
• Enovis Corp (ENOV) Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $45
• Eos Energy (EOSE) Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $16
• Freshworks (FRSH) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
• Garrett Motion (GTX) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $23
• Gitlab (GTLB) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $52
• Globus Medical (GMED) Rated New Hold at Freedom Capital; PT $87
• Guidewire (GWRE) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $250
• Hancock Whitney (HWC) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $76
• HubSpot (HUBS) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $500
• Independent Bank Corp (INDB) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $80
• Inspired Entertainment (INSE) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $17
• IonQ (IONQ) Rated New Outperform at Wedbush; PT $60
• JFrog (FROG) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $83
• Malibu Boats (MBUU) Rated New Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT $36
• Monday.com (MNDY) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $210
• nCino (NCNO) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
• NLight (LASR) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $44
• Old National (ONB) Reinstated Neutral at UBS; PT $25
• OneStream (OS) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $25
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Reinstated Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $235
• Paycom Software (PAYC) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $195
• Paylocity (PCTY) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $180
• Pony AI (PONY) ADRs Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $15
• Procore Technologies (PCOR) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $88
• Quantum Computing (QUBT) Rated New Neutral at Wedbush; PT $12
• Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Rated New Outperform at Wedbush; PT $35
• Robinhood (HOOD) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $155
• Salesforce (CRM) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $335
• Samsara (IOT) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $55
• ServiceNow (NOW) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $1,000
• ServiceTitan (TTAN) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $130
• Shake Shack (SHAK) Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $120
• Spotify (SPOT) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $800
• Spyre Therapeutics Inc (SYRE) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $64
• Twilio (TWLO) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $165
• Tyler Tech (TYL) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $560
• Valley National (VLY) Rated New Buy at UBS; PT $15
• Vicor (VICR) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $115
• Vor BioPharma (VOR) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen
• Waystar (WAY) Rated New Buy at UBS; PT $41
• Wingstop (WING) Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $320
• Workday (WDAY) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $285
• Workiva (WK) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $105
• Zoom Communications (ZM) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $105
• ZoomInfo (GTM) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $13
• Zymeworks (ZYME) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $40

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke