TODAY’S GAME PLAN: from the trading
desk, this is not research
TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA: 8:30ET Initial Jobless Claims; 2:00ET US bond markets close
Highlights and News:
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China Factory Activity Unexpectedly Expands
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CHINA TO IMPOSE 55% TARIFFS ON IMPORTED BEEF FROM THE US
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initial Jobless Claims End 2025 Near Record Lows
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December has been the cheapest month for prices at the pump this year
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WA State Senator Lisa Wellman has pre-filed legislation to hide information about daycares and their operators from the public
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World’s 500 richest people added a record $2.2 trillion to their wealth this year
Global stocks inched lower with many Asian and European markets either closed or operating on reduced holiday schedules. Performance today has been subdued with low-volume,
typical for the final trading day of the year, with limited fresh news and investors positioning lightly ahead of 2026. MSCI All Country World Index is up over 21% for 2025, marking one of the strongest years in recent memory despite trade tensions and volatility.
Standout performers include emerging markets like Colombia (+91%) and South Korea’s Kospi (+76%). Data today showed China’s official PMIs for December indicated a rebound in economic activity, with both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors expanding
again. The composite PMI increased to 50.7 from 49.7, marking a recovery after dipping below the 50 expansion threshold for the first time since December 2022.
EQUITIES:
US equity futures edge lower, continuing a pattern of mild declines in recent sessions, after a third straight year of double-digit gains (S&P 500 ~17–18%, Nasdaq ~21%, Dow ~14%). Both
S&P and Nasdaq indexes have drifted lower for the past three days amid a rotation out of growth and momentum stocks and into value and quality names in seasonally anemic trading. For the year, Sandisk (SNDK) and Western Digital (WDC) were the best performers
in the S&P500 index while Trade Desk (TTD) shares were the worst performers with a nearly 70% loss. Palantir (PLTR) Technologies is set to notch a triple-digit gain for the third year in a row. Nike is ~2% higher in premarket trading after CEO Elliott Hill
disclosed the purchase of about $1 million of shares.
Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.05%, Nasdaq -0.1%, Russell 2000 -0.1%, DJI -0.05%.
In pre-market trading, Nike (NKE) is up 2.6% after CEO Elliott Hill reported the purchase of about $1 million in shares. Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA) jumps 21% after
the biopharmaceutical company said the US FDA has approved Nereus (tradipitant) for the prevention of vomiting induced by motion. Royalty Pharma (RPRX US) +2.5%. Coterra Energy (CTRA US) +1.6%. Valens Semiconductor (VLN US) +13.0% A. Spac III Acquisition (ASPC
US) +12.8% Rising Dragon Acquisition (RDAC US) +8.7% Ambitions Enterprise Management (AHMA US) -5.8% Jefferson Capital (JCAP US) -7.2% Buuu Group (BUUU US) -7.2% SMX Security Matters (SMX US) -9.7% Outlook Therapeutics Inc (OTLK US) -18.8%
European gauges edged lower on the final trading day of 2025, remaining close to record highs after a robust year fueled by falling interest rates, Germany’s fiscal
stimulus, and investor shifts away from expensive US technology stocks. The banking sector has been one of the market’s strongest performers, poised to gain about 67% in 2025, its best performance since 2008. Trading activity remained subdued ahead of the
New Year holiday, with markets in Germany, Italy, Denmark, Finland and Switzerland already closed. Exchanges in France, Spain, and the UK are on shortened sessions for the day. Stoxx 600 -0.1%, DAX is closed, CAC -0.2%, FTSE 100 -0.1%. Personal Goods +0.2%,
Luxury +0.15%. Retail -0.3%, Chemicals -0.2%.
Shares in Asia were mostly lower, as they wrap up their best year since 2017 on a cautious note. MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed as several markets are already
shut for the year including Japan, Indonesia, Philippines and South Korea, while Hong Kong and Singapore shut early. President Xi Jinping declared China is set to meet its economic targets for 2025, with growth expected to reach “about 5%.” Official data showed
the first expansion in factory activity in nine months. Shares of Chinese electric vehicle makers rose after the government unveiled an initial 62.5 billion yuan ($8.9b) in consumer subsidies for 2026. Nvidia asked TSMC to ramp up production of H200 AI chips
as Chinese tech firms place orders far exceeding current inventory, Reuters reported. India is set to sustain high economic growth and authorities will take measures to shield it from potential shocks due to volatility in the global economy, the central bank
said. Vietnam +1%, Taiwan +0.9%, Sensex +0.6%. ASX 200 -0.03%, Singapore -0.2%, CSI 300 -0.45%, Hang Seng Index -0.9%.
FIXED INCOME:
Treasury yields are slightly higher across the curve as US trading gets under way on the last day of the year, a holiday-shortened session for US bond markets. 2s10s
is flat and 5s30s is +1bp. Treasuries are headed for a small monthly loss amid signs of US economic resilience including record highs for major US equity benchmarks, yet still on pace for their best annual performance since 2020 following three Fed interest-rate
cuts in response to weakening labor-market conditions.
METALS:
Gold and silver fell on the last trading day of 2025, though both remained on track for the biggest annual gain in four decades. Silver volatility continues with
a ~6% plunge after the CME announces its second margin hike within a week. Both gold and silver remain on track for their best years since 1979. Copper is on track for its largest annual gain since 2009, driven by short-term supply constraints and expectations
that demand for the metal—critical to electrification—will exceed production. Spot gold -0.3%, Silver -5.5%, Copper futures -1.75%.
ENERGY:
Oil prices inch higher and are poised to decline more than 15% for 2025 overall, amid mounting oversupply worries in a year dominated by wars, elevated tariffs, OPEC+
production increases, and sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. Brent steadied above $61 a barrel, with prices down 18% this year, with traders’ near-term focus on an OPEC+ meeting this weekend. Global oil markets have been oversupplied this year, with
production exceeding consumption by just over 2 million barrels a day in 2025. Russia and Ukraine struck each other’s Black Sea ports overnight, damaging infrastructure including an oil refinery. WTI +0.4%, Brent +0.4%, US Nat Gas -4.0%, RBOB -0.15%.
CURRENCIES:
In currency markets, the dollar is steady in quiet trading as it heads for an annual decline of about 8%, the steepest since 2017. Switzerland’s franc is up 14% on
the year while Sweden’s crown is up 20%. The Japanese yen is one of the few currencies that failed to take advantage of the soft dollar in 2025, remaining broadly flat even as the Bank of Japan raised
rates twice during the year. The yuan erased its gains in both the onshore and offshore
markets in a sudden move, after the PBOC strengthened daily fixing and Chinese PMIs unexpectedly climb back to expansion territory. US$ Index -0.02%, GBPUSD is flat, EURUSD +0.02%, USDJPY +0.15%, AUDUSD -0.15%, NZDUSD -0.4%, USDCHF is flat, USDCAD -0.02%,
USDSEK +0.1%, USDNOK +0.3%.
Spot Bitcoin +0.7%, Spot Ethereum +0.9%.
Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance
- Downgrades
- DigitalBridge Group (DBRG) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs
- Flushing Financial (FFIC) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
- OceanFirst (OCFC) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
- Initiations
- Coherent Corp (COHR) Rated New Buy at President Capital Management
Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG
David Wienke
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