TODAY’S GAME PLAN: from the trading
desk, this is not research
TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA: 9:45ET US December S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
Highlights and News:
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Trump threatens Iran over protest crackdown, says US ready to rescue Iran protesters if attacked
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Russia and Ukraine Trade Strikes on Black Sea Ports
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US Sanctions Chinese Companies, Tankers With Venezuela Links
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Gold and Silver Advance to Open New Year as Index Selling Looms
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Zohran Mamdani promised to lead New York City as a democratic socialist
Global stocks rally, with a fresh wave of equity gains for those markets that are open, though volumes are light due to the holiday period. A fresh burst of optimism
around artificial intelligence sent stocks off to a strong start to the year on a day that also saw precious metals pushing higher. Emerging-market stocks climbed to a five-year high with the MSCI index for developing-world equities rising as much as 1.6%,
extending gains to a sixth session. Global equity funds saw strong inflows in the final week of 2025 as solid corporate earnings outlook lifted risk appetite. Analysts expect corporate earnings to grow 12.11% in 2026, in line with the 12.32% growth forecast
for 2025, according to LSEG data. President Trump threatened to come to the aid of protesters in Iran if security forces fire on them, days into unrest that has left several dead and posed the biggest internal threat to Iranian authorities in years. “We are
locked and loaded and ready to go,” he said in a social media post. Tehran and other cities have seen a wave of demonstrations after the local currency collapsed to a record low.
Euro zone manufacturing activity shrank further in December but Asia’s major factories closed 2025 on a firmer footing backed by a rebound in export orders and growing demand for
artificial intelligence, private surveys showed.
EQUITIES:
US equity futures are firm led by tech-heavy Nasdaq reflecting continued AI enthusiasm and risk-on sentiment carrying over from 2025’s double-digit gains. Tesla rose 2.6% in premarket
trading to lead gains among the Magnificent Seven megacaps. Shares of online home goods company Wayfair and luxury furniture retailer RH jumped more than 3% and about 5%, respectively, after President Trump on New Year’s Eve postponed tariff increases on
upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and vanities for a year. Zohran Mamdani unapologetically promised to lead New York City as a democratic socialist during yesterday’s inauguration ceremony, a warning to those who believed he might moderate his positions
after taking office.
Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.9%, Russell 2000 +0.6%, DJI +0.3%.
In pre-market trading, Shares in RH (RH) gain 4.4% and Wayfair (W) advances 2.4% after President Trump delayed tariff increases on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets
and vanities. ASML ADRs (ASML) gain 4.8% as Aletheia Capital double upgrades the chip equipment maker’s European shares to buy from sell due to investment expansions and capacity upgrades. Baidu ADRs (BIDU) jump 11% after the company submitted a proposal to
Hong Kong’s exchange to list its artificial-intelligence chip unit Kunlunxin. NIO Inc. US-listed shares (NIO) rise 4.7% after the EV-maker reported deliveries for December that showed 33% growth month-over-month. Outlook Therapeutics (OTLK) falls 60% after
the FDA issued a complete response letter to the ONS-5010/LYTENAVA (bevacizumab-vikg) biologics license application resubmission. Sable Offshore (SOC) jumps 19% after the company gets a go-ahead to restart a controversial California pipeline. Vertiv Holdings
(VRT) gains 4.3% as Barclays upgrades the power equipment company to overweight from equal-weight.
European gauges begin the new year at all-time highs, tracking gains across global equities on persisting optimism around economic growth. The Stoxx 600 is holding
gains with technology stocks outperforming as they did in Asia after a fresh burst of optimism around artificial intelligence. UK manufacturing output grew for a second consecutive month in December, according to a survey by S&P Global. HCOB and S&P Global
released the December manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for Eurozone. It was the lowest reading since March 2025 and the second consecutive month of contraction. Among individual movers, Munters Group AB shares jumped 9.9% after the Swedish industrial
ventilation and cooling company received orders for data center equipment in the US. Stoxx 600 +0.5%, DAX +0.3%, CAC +0.35%, FTSE 100 +0.3%. Defense +2.3%, Technology +2.1%, Basic Resources +1.3%, Real Estate -0.6%, Food & Bev -0.5%.
Shares in Asia advanced, led by gains in tech-heavy markets such as Taiwan and South Korea, as most regional markets reopened after the holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific
Index advanced 1.1%, marking its best start to the year since 2012. Tencent, Samsung Electronics and TSMC were among the biggest contributors to the benchmark’s advance. Hang Seng Tech Index jumped 4% with a strong debut for chip designer Shanghai Biren Technology
Co. helping to set the buoyant tone. Baidu shares jumped 9% after the company submitted a proposal to the Asian financial hub’s exchange to list its artificial-intelligence chip unit Kunlunxin. China’s BYD rallied 3.6% in Hong Kong after it met full-year sales
targets and likely surpassed Tesla to become the world’s largest electric-vehicle maker in 2025. South Korea’s Kospi hit a record high, up over 2%, driven by tech giants like Samsung. South Korean entertainment and cosmetics stocks rallied on optimism a planned
summit with China next week will lead to deeper bilateral cultural exchanges and greater demand. Japan, Vietnam, New Zealand, Thailand and mainland China remained closed today. Hang Seng Index +2.8%, Kospi +2.3%, Philippines +1.4%, Taiwan +1.3%, Indonesia
+1.2%, Sensex +0.7%, Singapore +0.2%, ASX 200 +0.15%.
FIXED INCOME:
Treasuries hold small gains, leaving yields slightly richer across the curve, after erasing declines that occurred during Asia session. The yield on 30-year Treasuries
briefly touched the highest since early September, as optimism about the US economy damped demand for haven assets. Scheduled events during today’s US session include only S&P Global US manufacturing PMI revision. US yields are richer by up to 2bp in intermediate
sectors, steepening 5s30s spread by around 1bp on the day. 10-year is near 4.16%. IG dollar bond issuance slate remains blank with a deluge expected next week.
METALS:
Silver and gold are resuming their march higher, building on their best annual performances since 1979, and copper is extending gains as miners in Chile go on strike.
Aluminum touched $3,000 a ton for the first time in more than three years on expectations of tighter supply. A broad index rebalancing might pressure prices in the near term, with more than $5 billion of silver holdings and roughly $6 billion of gold futures
set to be sold in the five-day roll period starting next Thursday. Silver futures currently make up 9% of the Bloomberg Commodities Index, a widely tracked benchmark for a basket of commodities. That compares with a 2026 target weighting of just under 4%.
Spot gold +1.6%, Silver +3%, Copper futures +0.8%.
ENERGY:
Oil prices fall ahead of the OPEC+ meeting as traders kept a close eye on ongoing geopolitical risks. Key OPEC+ members led by Saudi Arabia will convene online on
Jan. 4, when they are expected to reaffirm a decision to pause supply increases during the first quarter. Russia made a formal diplomatic request that the US stop its pursuit of a tanker that had been sailing for Venezuela to pick up oil but is now fleeing
from the Coast Guard in the Atlantic Ocean. Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine attacked each other’s Black Sea ports over the new year period, damaging infrastructure including a refinery. The conflict has impacted energy flows from Kazakhstan, another nation in
the OPEC+ alliance. The Trump administration stepped up a pressure campaign against Venezuela’s oil exports by sanctioning companies based in Hong Kong and mainland China, along with related oil tankers it accused of evading restrictions. At least three tankers
carrying about 2.2 million barrels of Russian crude are heading toward Reliance’s Jamnagar refinery in India after the company resumed some purchases. WTI -0.7%, Brent -0.7%, US Nat Gas -2.7%, RBOB -0.9%.
CURRENCIES:
In currency markets, the US dollar trades mixed against major peers, with the Australian dollar outperforming amid higher precious metal prices. The euro is lagging
after weaker-than-expected manufacturing PMI data. China’s yuan climbed to its strongest level since May 2023 in offshore trading, while South Africa’s rand added 0.4%, leading EM gains. BOK Governor Rhee Chang Yong said recent won weakness doesn’t reflect
the real strength of the country’s economy and vowed to oppose any US investment decisions that could threaten the stability of the foreign-exchange market. US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD -0.05%, EURUSD -0.2%, USDJPY +0.1%, AUDUSD +0.4%, NZDUSD +0.2%, USDCHF ~flat,
USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK +0.1%, USDNOK -0.15%.
Spot Bitcoin +1.2%, Spot Ethereum +2.1%.
Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance
- Upgrades
- ASML (ASML NA) ADRs Raised to Buy at Aletheia Capital; PT $1,500
- Vertiv Holdings (VRT) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $200
- Initiations
- Algoma Steel Group (ASTL CN) Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT C$6
- Apple (AAPL) Reinstated Market Perform at Raymond James
Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG
David Wienke
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