Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  10:00ET ISM Manufacturing

Highlights and News:  

• Trump said on Saturday he was putting Venezuela under temporary American control
• Venezuela’s acting President Delcy Rodríguez asked Washington to work with Caracas
• Maduro to appear in NYC court today
  to face US drug trafficking charges  
• Swiss Government Freezes Maduro’s Assets in Switzerland
• Trump fueled speculation about his next possible targets, including Cuba and Colombia
• Denmark’s PM urged Trump to stop threatening to take control of Greenland
• Zelenskiy said the US will join the EU for talks in Paris tomorrow on security guarantees for Ukraine

Global stocks climbed while oil prices fluctuated as uncertainty mounted over who was in charge of Venezuela following Nicolás Maduro’s removal from power. Maduro
is due in a New York City court today on drugs and weapons charges following his stunning capture by US special forces. Venezuela’s acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, asked the US to work with her country, adopting a more conciliatory tone toward the Trump
administration following her initial outrage over the arrest of President Maduro. “We extend an invitation to the US government to work together on a cooperation agenda, aimed at shared development, within the framework of international law, and to strengthen
lasting community coexistence,” she said in a statement released late on Sunday. Rodríguez will face a test of her hold on power in the country today, when a new group of lawmakers are sworn in at the National Assembly. Trump said a team of US officials will
“run” the country and that Rodríguez would work alongside them. Iran, reeling from deadly protests, must now view Trump’s warnings against it as more credible.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are mostly higher to start the first full trading week of the new year as investors parse the rapid developments in Venezuela while monthly jobs data looms. America’s
allies offered a measured response after US troops captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro in a raid, a move that sent shockwaves around the world.  Chevron Corp. rose more than 7% in early trading, joined by strong gains among major US oil companies, after
President Trump floated plans for a US-led revival of Venezuela’s industry. Chevron is the only major US oil company present in Venezuela. Investors are also bracing for further developments, including an impending US Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs,
his selection of a new Federal Reserve chair, and the approaching start of the earnings season.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.6%, Russell 2000 +0.1%, DJI -0.1%.

In pre-market trading, Energy names including Chevron (CVX +6%) and Baker Hughes (BKR +6%) are rallying after President Donald Trump said a team of US officials will
“run” Venezuela and that Washington requires “total access” to the country, including its oil reserves. Gold stocks, including Newmont (NEM +1.7%) and Barrick Mining (B +1.8%) are higher as precious metals advance while investors weigh elevated geopolitical
risks. Memory and semiconductor equipment stocks rise amid continued optimism over the rollout of AI. Micron (MU) +3%, and Sandisk (SNDK) +4% Centene (CNC) rises 1.8% and Oscar Health (OSCR) gains 3% after Barclays upgraded both health insurance names. Estee
Lauder (EL) gains 4% after Raymond James analyst Olivia Tong raised her recommendation on the beauty company to strong buy. GH Research (GHRS) soars 36% after saying that the FDA has lifted the clinical hold on its investigational new drug application for
GH001. Mobileye (MBLY) rises 7% after saying an unnamed US-based automaker has chosen its EyeQ6H chip powered solution as standard across mass-market to premium vehicles. Zenas Biopharma (ZBIO) slumps 49% after detailing results from a Phase 3 trial of obexelimab
in immunoglobulin G4-related disease.

European gauges rose as investors snapped up defense and mining stocks in the wake of the US attack on Venezuela. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer reaffirmed support
for international law and said Britain would discuss the situation with US counterparts, while French President Emmanuel Macron remarked that Venezuelans freed from Maduro’s dictatorship could “only rejoice.”  Technology also outperforms, with ASML Holding
NV shares among the biggest gainers after Bernstein upgraded its rating to outperform from market perform. Ashmore shares surged as much as 14%, before paring gains, as analysts expect the emerging-market fund manager’s Venezuelan assets to benefit. Rheinmetall
AG and Saab shares climb over 7% to a record high as US military strikes on Venezuela lift European defense stocks. Miners are near the top of the leaderboard, tracking gains across the metals complex. Stoxx 600 +0.35%, DAX +0.6%, CAC -0.1%, FTSE 100 +0.25%.
Defense +4%, Technology +2%, Industrial Goods +1.9%, Basic Resources +1.7%, Energy +1.3%. Food & Bev -1.3%, Retail -1.1%, Autos -1.1%. 

Shares in Asia rose amid widespread strength in technology stocks, as markets brushed aside geopolitical developments to focus on enthusiasm for AI. The MSCI Asia Pacific
Index advanced for a third session, rising 1.5%, while benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan notched new record highs. China’s onshore benchmark CSI 300 Index rose nearly 2% on its first trading day of 2026, marking its strongest start to a year in over a decade.
Nvidia partner Hon Hai’s quarterly sales beat estimates after global tech firms accelerated their build-out of data centers. TSMC jumped after Goldman analysts lifted their price target by 35% and a Chinese national investment fund raised its stake in SMIC.
China’s services activity expanded at the weakest pace in six months, according to a private survey, as new export business returned to contraction because of fewer tourist arrivals. Kospi +3.4%, Nikkei 225 +3%, Taiwan +2.6%, CSI 300 +1.9%, Indonesia +1.3%,
Singapore +0.5%, Philippines +0.5%, Vietnam +0.2%, Hang Seng Index +0.03%, ASX 200 was flat. Sensex -0.4%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold belly-led gains, pushing US 10-year yield down 1 bps to 4.18%, steepening 5s30s spread by about 1.5bp. 2s10s is flat. US session includes December
ISM manufacturing gauge. IG dollar bond issuance slate contains several offerings to begin a week anticipated to be among the year’s busiest; Treasury coupon supply resumes next week with 3-, 10- and 30-year auctions.

METALS: 

Gold and the dollar rose after the ouster of Venezuela’s President Maduro fanned geopolitical risk. Spot gold advanced more than 2% to briefly climb above $4,439
an ounce, while silver jumped 4%, having briefly topped $76/oz.  Traders have flagged the metals could do well this year on further US interest-rate cuts and dollar weakness, but there’s concern that a broad index rebalancing might pressure prices in the near
term. Given the metals have rallied, passive tracking funds may sell some contracts to match new weightings. Spot gold +1.6%, Silver +3.3%, Copper futures +3.6%.

ENERGY:   

Oil is firming, with foreign claims on Venezuelan crude thrown into doubt following Maduro’s capture Saturday by US troops. The near-term impact of his ouster on
oil supplies is likely to be limited. The US’s shock intervention in Venezuela will likely choke oil flows to China, although the short-term impact will be softened by large volumes of sanctioned crude being stored at sea. Meanwhile, OPEC+ reaffirmed its pause
on production increases through the end of March amid a looming surplus. Delegates said Venezuela was not discussed at the brief meeting yesterday. Secretary of State Rubio said the US will use leverage over oil to force further change in Venezuela and demanded
it sever ties with Iran, Hezbollah and Cuba. Trump reiterated that the US needed “total access” to oil to rebuild the country. Brent traded near $61 a barrel, swinging between modest gains and losses in a sign that oil traders were taking the developments
in Caracas in stride. Focus is turning to how quickly the country with the world’s largest proven crude reserves can raise output. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia-backed forces in Yemen regained control of the strategic region of Hadramout over the weekend. WTI +0.9%,
Brent +0.7%, US Nat Gas -5.7%, RBOB +0.3%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar climbs against all FX majors, with kiwi and Aussie among the biggest decliners. The US dollar’s response to the capture of Venezuelan
President Nicolás Maduro “represents a key test” for investors as they seek to gauge the currency’s haven status, according to Morgan Stanley strategists. The Mexican peso was the biggest laggard, weakening the most since November before most other Latin American
markets opened. The nation was among those that condemned the US military actions in Venezuela. Trump said Saturday that cartels are running Mexico and the US will “have to do something” about flows of drugs from the country. The Swiss franc, another traditional
haven currency, fell against both the dollar and euro. The yen is flat as BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda vowed to keep raising rates as the economy and inflation improve. US$ Index +0.4%, GBPUSD -0.1%, EURUSD -0.5%, USDJPY ~flat, AUDUSD -0.4%, NZDUSD -0.4%, USDCHF
+0.5%, USDCAD +0.5%, USDSEK +0.3%, USDNOK +0.4%.

Spot Bitcoin +1.6%, Spot Ethereum +0.5%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Arista Networks (ANET) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $159
• ARM Holdings (ARM) ADRs Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT $170
• Centene (CNC) Raised to Overweight at Barclays
• Church & Dwight (CHD) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $100
• Citizens Financial (CFG) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $77
• Coinbase (COIN) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $303
• CoreWeave (CRWV) Raised to Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $68
• Costco (COST) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $1,000
• Cullen/Frost (CFR) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $150
• Dover (DOV) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $256
• Duolingo (DUOL) Raised to Buy at BofA
• Emerson Electric (EMR) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $168
• Enphase Energy (ENPH) Raised to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Equitable Holdings (EQH) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $60
• F5 Inc. (FFIV) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $325
• Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $295
• First Industrial Realty (FR) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $67
• Heartland Express (HTLD) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $12
• Hershey (HSY) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $182
• Huntington Ingalls (HII) Raised to Buy at Melius
• IBM (IBM) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $360
• Intel (INTC) Raised to Buy at Melius; PT $50
• Ironwood (IRWD) Raised to Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $8
• Kinetik (KNTK) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $46
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) Raised to Buy at Melius; PT $135
• Mobileye (MBLY) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $16
• Moody’s (MCO) Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $574
• Motorola Solutions (MSI) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler
• Oscar Health (OSCR) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Raised to Neutral at Guggenheim
• Procore Technologies (PCOR) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $90
• Roku (ROKU) Raised to Buy at Arete; PT $132
• Sight Sciences (SGHT) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $9
• Sunstone Hotel (SHO) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $11
• Tactile Systems (TCMD) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $35
• United Rentals (URI) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $1,025
• Varonis Systems (VRNS) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $47
• Woodward (WWD) Raised to Buy at Melius
• Downgrades
• Adobe (ADBE) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $400
• AutoZone (AZO) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $3,550
• Crown Castle (CCI) Cut to Neutral at New Street Research; PT $93
• Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $460
• EastGroup (EGP) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $185
• Eaton Corp (ETN) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $360
• EToro Group (ETOR) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $39
• EverCommerce (EVCM) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $12
• Five9 (FIVN) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $21
• Fortive (FTV) Cut to Underperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $51
• Heritage Commerce (HTBK) Cut to Equal-Weight at Stephens
• Hess Midstream (HESM) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Intertek (ITRK LN) ADRs Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $69
• Life360 (360 AU) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• MPLX (MPLX) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Netflix (NFLX) Cut to Hold at CFRA; PT $100
• PagerDuty (PD) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $15
• Pentair (PNR) Cut to Sell at TD Cowen; PT $90
• Principal Financial (PFG) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $103
• Rapid7 (RPD) Cut to Underweight at Barclays
• Roper (ROP) Cut to Underperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $419
• RTX Corp (RTX) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $199
• SentinelOne (S) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $17
• State Street (STT) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $152
• Truist Financial (TFC) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $56
• Twilio (TWLO) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $148
• Uber (UBER) Cut to Sell at Melius; PT $73
• Initiations
• Akari Therapeutics (AKTX) ADRs Rated New Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann
• BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) Rated New Overweight at Cantor
• Cardinal Infrastructure Group (CDNL) US Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $28
• Compass Therapeutics (CMPX) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Eastern Bankshares (EBC) Rated New Outperform at Hovde Group
• Lumexa Imaging (LMRI) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $23
• Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $23
• Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $22
• Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $23
• Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $23
• Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $23
• MediciNova (MNOV) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets; PT $11
• Pinnacle Financial Partners (PNFP) Rated New Buy at DA Davidson
• San Lorenzo Gold (SLG CN) Rated New Speculative Buy at Argonaut Securities
• Sharplink Gaming (SBET) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $15
• SuRo Capital Corp (SSSS) Rated New Buy at Lucid Capital Markets; PT $12
• VTV Therapeutics (VTVT) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $67
• Waters (WAT) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Watts Water (WTS) Reinstated Sector Perform at RBC; PT $288
• Zurn Elkay Water (ZWS) Rated New Sector Perform at RBC; PT $49

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke