Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Fed’s Miran speaks; 9:45ET S&P Global US Services PMI, S&P Global US Composite PMI

Highlights and News:  

• Ukraine’s allies meet today with aim to make security pledges concrete
• Trump tells NBC that US may reimburse Venezuela oil investments
• Nvidia CEO says Rubin chips are on track, demand is strong
• Goldman Sachs strategists expect diversification to European stocks from US market this year
• China Imposes Export Controls on Japan Military
  
• Trump asked Marco Rubio to oversee an economic and political overhaul of Venezuela
• Trump administration plans to freeze about $10 billion in welfare funding in five Democratic-led states

Global stocks inched up as world markets remained upbeat ahead of key market data this week, while the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro did not dampen
traders’ risk appetite. Maduro pleaded not guilty on Monday to narcotics charges in New York. A gauge for emerging markets hit a fresh record and Asian equities rose for a fourth day. Meanwhile, PMI data today showed the eurozone economy grew at a slower pace
last month, but closed 2025 with its strongest quarterly expansion in over two years, as robust services activity offset ongoing contraction in manufacturing, according to a survey. The economy expanded every month in 2025, a streak not seen since 2019. China
banned exports of dual-use items with potential military applications to Japan amid escalating tensions between the two nations over Taiwan. Ukraine’s allies meet in Paris today, seeking to finalize their contributions to future security guarantees, aiming
to reassure Kyiv in the event of a ceasefire with Russia. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy will be joined by more than 27 leaders in the French capital, along with senior US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures pause as investors awaited new economic data to assess the health of the US economy. Traders are focused on a monthly employment report, due on Friday, which is expected
to shape market expectations for monetary policy. Equity positioning drifted lower across US indexes last week as longs were unwound and new shorts put in place, according to Citigroup strategists. In corporate news, Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang said that the
company’s highly anticipated Rubin data center processors are in production and customers will soon be able to try out the technology. Advanced Micro Devices, seeking to challenge Nvidia’s dominance in the AI hardware market, unveiled a new chip designed for
enterprise data centers and highlighted the capabilities of an upcoming generation of products. Under Armour jumped in late trading on Monday after Fairfax Financial Holdings disclosed a sizable stake in the sportswear company.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.05%, Nasdaq +0.2%, Russell 2000 -0.2%, DJI -0.1%.

In pre-market trading, Aeva (AEVA) jumps 23% after the company announced that its 4D LiDAR technology has been selected for the Nvidia Drive Hyperion autonomous vehicle
reference platform. Core Scientific (CORZ) climbs 4% as BTIG upgrades to buy as the dust settles following shareholder rejection in October of its acquisition by CoreWeave. Frontier Group (ULCC) falls 3% after BofA cut the recommendation on the airline to
underperform. Microchip (MCHP) rises 4% after the analog chipmaker’s net sales forecast for the third quarter beat. Oculis (OCS) rises 8% after the drug developer said its experimental therapy, Privosegtor, was granted the FDA’s breakthrough therapy designation
for the treatment of optic neuritis. OneStream Inc. (OS) soars 22% as buyout firm Hg is in advanced talks to acquire the financial software maker. Vistra Corp. (VST) climbs 4% after agreeing to pay roughly $4 billion for 10 natural gas-fired power plants in
the US Northeast and Texas. Zeta Global (ZETA) rises 9% after the software company announced that it has entered a strategic collaboration with OpenAI. Mobileye Global (MBLY) shares are up 5.7% after JPMorgan upgraded the maker of software and hardware technology
for automobiles to neutral from underweight.

European gauges are mostly higher with shares in the UK leading gains while France lags. Utilities and healthcare shares lead gains while the luxury and consumer products
sectors are among the biggest laggards, weighed down by Adidas AG and JD Sports Fashion Plc as Bank of America analysts downgraded both apparel retailers. Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk A/S pushed healthcare shares higher amid optimism for the pill version
of its obesity shot that it began selling in the US this week.  Miners gain after copper surged to a fresh record amid a renewed rush to ship the base metal to the US. UK food inflation rose for the first time since August last month nudging shoppers to seek
value items during the key Christmas trading period for retailers. Next Plc gained over 3% after raising its profit forecast for a fifth time this financial year after sales at the British retailer soared in the key Christmas period. Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV
will reacquire a 49.9% stake in its US metal container plants from a consortium of institutional investors. InPost SA shares soared 20% after the Polish operator of parcel lockers received a takeover proposal from an unidentified company.  Stoxx 600 +0.35%,
DAX +0.3%, CAC -0.2%, FTSE 100 +1.1%. Utilities +1.9%, Healthcare +1.5%, Defense +1.2%. Chemicals -0.6%, Luxury -0.6%, Personal Goods -0.55%.

Shares in Asia extended their strong start to 2026 as the tech rally shows no signs of slowing down. Hang Seng Tech Index jumps more than 2% and several mainland China
indexes hit multi-year highs. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 1.2% for a fourth straight day of gains in what is poised to be its best-ever start to a year. Japanese stocks recorded their best start to a new year since 1990, supported by strong buying
from foreign investors and retail traders. Japanese banks jumped after central bank Governor Ueda said he intends to keep raising rates in line with inflation. China’s onshore CSI 300 Index climbed to the highest in four years on enthusiasm for the country’s
AI industry and growing signs of an economic recovery. Chinese memory-chip stocks advanced after Korean media reported Samsung and SK Hynix are seeking to raise server DRAM prices by up to 70%. Philippines +2.5%, Topix +1.75%, Taiwan +1.55%, Vietnam +1.6%,
CSI 300 +1.55%, Kospi +1.5%, Hang Seng Index +1.4%, Singapore +1.3%, Indonesia +0.8%. Sensex -0.4%, ASX 200 -0.5%. 

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold small losses in early US session, unwinding a portion of Monday’s gains when yields fell after a report showed US manufacturing activity shrank in
December by the most since 2024, reinforcing the case for further easing by the Fed. European bonds outperform following soft German regional inflation prints. US session includes a couple of Fed speakers and services PMI gauge. US yields are about 1bp cheaper
with curve spreads roughly flat.  IG corporate new-issue calendar contains already includes several offerings after 20 names priced a combined $37 billion Monday, the busiest day since October.

METALS: 

Gold prices edged higher to around a one-week high, supported by safe-haven demand amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Spot gold is marginally higher after rising
nearly 3% in the last session following the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Gold Reserve Ltd. sees a path to regain two gold deposits seized by Venezuela after the US captured the country’s leader. Traders are turning their attention to a series
of US economic data releases this week, with the December jobs report on Friday taking center stage. In China, LONGi Green Energy Technology Co. said it would begin substituting base metals for silver in its solar cells in the latest move by the industry to
mitigate the surging cost of the white metal. CME copper futures soared to a record all-time high this morning, driven by strong demand for physical delivery. Expectations that the Trump administration may introduce a tariff on refined metal have drawn huge
volumes of inventory into the US, potentially leaving the rest of the world short as miners struggle to boost output. Spot gold +0.4%, Silver +2.3%, Copper futures +1.3%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil prices rise modestly as traders balanced expectations of abundant global supply this year against uncertainties surrounding Venezuelan crude production. The Trump
administration plans to meet US oil executives this week to discuss boosting Venezuelan oil production. Oil analysts said Venezuelan output could increase up to half a million barrels a day over the next two years, provided political stability returns and
US investment resumes. Reliance Industries said it was not expecting any Russian crude oil deliveries in January, a move that could sharply cut India’s Russian oil imports this month to the lowest in years. This comes after Trump on Sunday said that the US
could further raise import tariffs on India over its Russian oil purchases. Middle Eastern crude markets are weakening, with widening Dubai-Brent discounts and collapsing spot premiums signaling ample supply and a growing global glut.  WTI +0.5%, Brent +0.5%,
US Nat Gas -3.9%, RBOB +0.3%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar edges higher after surging to a four-week high in the prior session but relinquished all those gains after a gauge of US manufacturing
activity fell to a 14-month low. The euro inches lower after Eurozone’s services PMI fell more than expected in December but remained above the breakeven point. Sterling is lower as UK’s services PMI rose slightly in December but ended 2025 on a weaker footing
than previously thought. US$ Index +0.25%, GBPUSD -0.2%, EURUSD -0.1%, USDJPY +0.01%, AUDUSD +0.1%, NZDUSD +0.02%, USDCHF +0.2%, USDCAD +0.02%, USDSEK +0.2%, USDNOK -0.1%.

Spot Bitcoin -0.4%, Spot Ethereum -0.2%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Ally Financial (ALLY) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI
• Arvinas (ARVN) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $15
• Asur (ASURB MM) ADRs Raised to Outperform at Bradesco BBI; PT $365
• Ball (BALL) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $60
• Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $67
• Brinker (EAT) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $175
• Brunswick (BC) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $115
• Casella Waste (CWST) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $120
• Certara (CERT) Raised to Outperform at Leerink; PT $13
• Core Scientific (CORZ) Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $23
• Dorian LPG (LPG) Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT $31
• Fortrea Holdings (FTRE) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $25
• GAP Airports (GAPB MM) ADRs Raised to Neutral at Bradesco BBI; PT $260
• Highwoods (HIW) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $29
• Jackson Financial (JXN) Raised to Inline at Evercore ISI
• KLA Corp (KLAC) Raised to Overweight at Cantor; PT $1,500
• Krystal Biotech (KRYS) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $309
• Landstar (LSTR) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $170
• Medtronic (MDT) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
• Microchip (MCHP) Raised to Overweight at Cantor; PT $85
• Mobileye (MBLY) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $13
• O-I Glass (OI) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $18
• OMA (OMAB MM) ADRs Raised to Outperform at Bradesco BBI; PT $120
• Packaging Corp (PKG) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $233
• Ravelin Properties REIT (RPR-U CN) Raised to Speculative Buy at Cormark Securities
• ServiceNow (NOW) Raised to Buy at Arete; PT $200
• Shake Shack (SHAK) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $105
• SLB (SLB) Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $54
• Stryker (SYK) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $418
• Trex (TREX) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $52
• Werner Enterprises (WERN) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $34
• Downgrades
• Air Lease (AL) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $65
• AptarGroup (ATR) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $133
• AT&T (T) Cut to Sell at Arete; PT $20
• BP (BP/ LN) ADRs Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $38
• Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ CN) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI
• Comcast (CMCSA) Cut to Sell at Arete; PT $23
• D.R. Horton (DHI) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $155
• Frontier Airlines (ULCC) Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $4
• Globe Life (GL) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI
• Graphic Packaging (GPK) Cut to Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $12
• Greif (GEF) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $72
• Halliburton (HAL) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $35
• KeyCorp (KEY) Cut to Underperform at Baird; PT $18
• Lennar (LEN) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $122
• MetLife (MET) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI
• Sonoco (SON) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $47
• Sweetgreen (SG) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $7.50
• Wells Fargo (WFC) Cut to Underperform at Baird; PT $90
• Zenas Biopharma (ZBIO) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $19
• Zimmer Biomet (ZBH) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Initiations
• Accenture (ACN) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs
• Apple Hospitality (APLE) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $14
• Belite Bio (BLTE) ADRs Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $191
• Billiontoone (BLLN) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $120
• Bridgebio (BBIO) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $96
• CCC Intelligent Solutions (CCC) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs
• China Yuchai (CYD) Rated New Buy at UBS; PT $60
• CoreWeave (CRWV) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs
• DiamondRock Hospitality (DRH) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays
• Digital Realty (DLR) Reinstated Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $180
• Duolingo (DUOL) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs
• Enovis Corp (ENOV) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $41
• EPAM Systems (EPAM) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs
• Equinix (EQIX) Reinstated Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $915
• Evommune (EVMN) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $35
• Globant (GLOB) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs
• Host Hotels (HST) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $19
• IAG (IAG LN) ADRs Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $12.70
• Intuit (INTU) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs
• Karman Holdings (KRMN) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
• Lemonade (LMND) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs
• Palantir (PLTR) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs
• Park Hotels (PK) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $13
• Parker-Hannifin (PH) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $1,050
• Pebblebrook (PEB) Rated New Underweight at Barclays; PT $10
• Reddit (RDDT) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• Richards Group (RIC CN) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT C$42
• RLJ Lodging (RLJ) Rated New Underweight at Barclays; PT $6
• Ryman Hospitality (RHP) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $110
• Spire Global (SPIR) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $14
• UnitedHealth (UNH) Rated New Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $400
• Upstart (UPST) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs
• Versant Media Group (VSNT) Rated New Sell at Arete; PT $33
• Waters (WAT) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $440
• Wealthfront (WLTH) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $16.50
• Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $20
• Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $14.50
• Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $17
• Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $16
• Rated New Outperform at KBW; PT $16.50
• Rated New Sector Weight at KeyBanc

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke