Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:15ET ADP Employment Change; 10:00ET December ISM Services, November JOLTS Job Openings,
Factory Orders, Durable Goods Orders, Cap Goods; 4:10ET Fed’s Bowman speaks

Highlights and News:  

• Trump says Venezuela to send oil worth up to $2.8 billion to US; US-Venezuela oil deal angers China
• Trump plans to meet with oil executives possibly tomorrow to discuss rebuilding Venezuela’s industry
• Zelenskiy’s chief of staff hails ‘concrete results’ on second day of Paris talks
• ZELENSKIY: UKRAINE & US TO DISCUSS TERRITORIES
• US INTERCEPTED ANOTHER VENEZUELA-LINKED TANKER: RTRS
• US SANCTIONS ON VENEZUELA WILL BE REDUCED: CNBC
• Rubio Says US Trying to Buy Greenland from Denmark: WSJ
  
• China-Japan Feud Escalates With Trade Probe
  
• Warner Bros. Discovery board rejects Paramount’s revamped hostile takeover bid

Global stocks pause an early-2026 winning streak despite Wall Street’s record close. President Trump announced that Venezuela’s interim authorities will turn over
between 30 and 50 million barrels of “High Quality, Sanctioned Oil” to the United States. The oil will be sold at market prices, with the proceeds controlled by Trump to ensure they benefit the people of both countries. China denounced the US as a bully after
Trump’s administration said it had persuaded Venezuela to divert supplies from Beijing. The US is demanding Venezuela reduce ties to China, Russia, Iran and Cuba, and the Trump administration told Venezuela’s interim leader that her government must exclusively
partner with the US on oil supply. Market sentiment was also unsettled by other developments, including White House statements indicating that President Trump is exploring various options to acquire Greenland and has not ruled out military force. In Asia,
China intensified tensions with Japan by launching an anti-dumping investigation into a critical semiconductor material, while rare earth-related stocks rallied amid Beijing’s newly imposed export restrictions targeting Japan. Meanwhile, President Zelenskiy’s
top adviser praised the “concrete results” emerging from the second day of talks in Paris on peace and security guarantees for Ukraine, pledging that Kyiv’s national interests would remain fully protected.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures stall after the Dow industrials and the S&P 500 closed Tuesday at all-time highs, with the blue-chip index notching its best three-day start to any year since 2003.
S&P 500 Q4 earnings are likely to beat consensus by 5.5% according to Deutsche Bank strategists. Three big days of data are kicking off, with JOLTS job openings and ADP numbers due today. In corporate news, Mobileye surged after the self-driving car systems
company agreed to acquire Israeli startup Mentee Robotics. MSCI decided against excluding digital-asset treasury companies from its MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes in its February review, sending Strategy higher in extended trading. Warner Bros. Discovery
(WBD) board officially rejected Paramount Skydance’s revamped hostile takeover bid, saying it is inferior to the existing merger agreement with Netflix. Mining stocks were among the biggest decliners in premarket trading, with Newmont, Freeport-McMoRan, and
Barrick Mining all down 1% or more. Chevron and Quantum Energy Partners will bid for Lukoil’s international assets, valued at $22 billion by the Russian firm.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.05%, Nasdaq -0.2%, Russell 2000 -0.1%, DJI +0.1%.

In pre-market trading, AST SpaceMobile Inc. (ASTS) falls 6% after Scotiabank cut the recommendation on the satellite broadband company to sector underperform. First
Solar (FSLR) falls 4% after Jefferies cut its recommendation to hold from buy on concerns over tariffs and its valuation. Mobileye Global (MBLY) climbs 10% with the company to acquire Israeli startup Mentee Robotics. Monte Rosa Therapeutics (GLUE) rises 38%
after the biotech announced positive interim data from an ongoing Phase 1 clinical study. Strategy (MSTR) climbs 4% after MSCI decided for now to keep digital asset treasury companies in its stock market indexes. StoneCo (STNE) falls 5% after the Brazilian
digital payments company said CEO Pedro Zinner will resign for personal reasons effective March 2026. Ventyx Biosciences Inc. (VTYX) is up 56% after the Wall Street Journal reported that Eli Lilly & Co. is in advanced talks to acquire the company for more
than $1 billion to expand its work in immunology.

European gauges are mixed as investors look ahead to US jobs data while weighing geopolitical events. Euro-area inflation eased to the ECB’s 2% target as expected,
supporting the view of policymakers that interest rates can stay at current levels. Energy stocks lag after President Trump said Venezuela would send oil worth up to $2.8 billion to the US, while construction shares outperform. Italgas shares rise as much
as 10% to hit a new record high after gas distribution operator Snam announced an offer of green bonds exchangeable for existing ordinary shares of Italgas. Thyssenkrupp shares gain ~6%, leading defense stocks higher after the Trump administration and Ukraine’s
allies moved toward an agreement to offer security guarantees sought by Kyiv. InPost fell as much as 8.3%, ceding some of the previous day’s 28% gain. Kingspan shares drop as much as 5.4% after the company said it won’t pursue an IPO of Advnsys. Stoxx 600
~flat, DAX +0.7%, CAC ~flat, FTSE 100 -0.7%.  Stoxx 600 is most overbought since May 2017, according to 14-day RSI.

Shares in Asia were mostly lower, as escalating trade tensions between China and Japan damped investor sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.5%, snapping
a four-day advance. Technology megacaps including TSMC and Tencent were among the biggest drags, while Alibaba dropped on fresh concerns over Beijing regulations. Chinese tech stocks lead regional losers while shares in Japan retreat amid China’s export controls
on dual-use goods. Shares of rare earth companies surged across the Asia-Pacific region after China announced a ban on exports of military-related items to Japan, a step that could disrupt critical supply chains. Asian data-center cooling stocks fell after
comments by Nvidia’s Jensen Huang prompted questions over demand for their products. In corporate news, BlueScope Steel rejected an $8.8 billion takeover bid by US steelmaker Steel Dynamics and Australian conglomerate SGH Ltd. Hang Seng Tech -1.5%, Nikkei
225 -1.1%, Hang Seng Index -0.9%, Taiwan -0.5%, Philippines -0.4%, CSI 300 -0.3%, Sensex -0.1%. ASX 200 +0.15%, Singapore +0.15%, Kospi +0.6%, Vietnam +2.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Yields fell across the globe, with the 10-year yield falling three basis points to 4.135%. Bonds rose, with Europe leading gains as weak economic data in Germany
and slowing euro-area inflation stirred expectations that the ECB could cut rates this year. Ahead of a slate of data in the next few days, a record-sized block trade was placed in the federal funds futures market. The trade was struck in the January contracts
for a size of 200,000, the largest ever as confirmed by CME Group. It could be related to an unwinding of existing bets or a wager that could benefit from a potential shift in market pricing for the Fed’s next rate decision. Investors were also keeping tabs
on the primary bond market as the first week of 2026 saw a surge in global issuance, signaling strong confidence despite heightened geopolitical risks. US yields richer by 1bp-4bp across a flatter yield curve, with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads respectively 3bp
and 2bp tighter.

METALS: 

Precious metals joined the broader pullback, with silver falling below $78 an ounce and gold breaking a three-day winning streak. Copper retreated from an all-time
high. Gold prices declined as investors reassessed the latest developments in the US-Venezuela situation, which reduced the metal’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Spot gold dropped below $4,440 per ounce, after touching a more than one-week high earlier in
the session. Copper will rally toward $14,000 within three months on bullish momentum, Citi said. But it sees gains beyond $13,000 fading unless new catalysts emerge. Spot gold -1.3%, Silver -4.2%, Copper futures -1.8%.

ENERGY:   

Oil prices are steady after President Trump says that Venezuela will send the US up to 50 million barrels of oil to be sold at market price. WTI contracts drop as
much as 2.4% to near $55.80 before recovering most of the losses.  Brent fell below $60 a barrel before recouping all losses. According to ABC News, the Trump administration has informed Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, that her government must
enter into an exclusive oil partnership with the United States and prioritize American buyers for crude sales. The U.S. is also pressing Caracas to sever ties with China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba—a move that would mark a dramatic shift in the country’s foreign
alliances. Meanwhile, Russia has deployed naval vessels, including a submarine, to escort a sanctioned oil tanker—formerly known as Bella 1 and now renamed Marinera—across the North Atlantic as it evades pursuit by US forces. Trafigura Group and other traders
will hold talks with the US about how they can return to buying Venezuelan oil as Trump is set to meet with energy executives at the White House within the next week. WTI -0.1%, Brent +0.2%, US Nat Gas +5.1%, RBOB +0.9%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar was little changed ahead of a slew of US economic data and speeches from Federal Reserve members this week. Aussie dollar climbs to
a fresh 15-month high before reversing gains after November inflation slows more than expected in November to 3.2%, supporting the case for the Reserve Bank to keep interest rates unchanged for now as it assesses the impact of earlier policy easing.  Offshore
yuan is marginally weaker against the dollar. US$ Index +0.01%, GBPUSD -0.1%, EURUSD -0.03%, USDJPY -0.1%, AUDUSD -0.1%, NZDUSD is flat, USDCHF +0.05%, USDCAD -0.05%, USDSEK -0.1%, USDNOK +0.1%.

Spot Bitcoin -1.5%, Spot Ethereum -2.1%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Albemarle (ALB) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $210
• Algonquin Power (AQN CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank
• Amcor (AMCR) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $10
• Block (XYZ) Raised to Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $83
• BNY Mellon (BK) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs
• Colgate-Palmolive (CL) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $88
• Definity Financial (DFY CN) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT C$88
• First Bancorp NC (FBNC) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $62
• First Commonwealth (FCF) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $20
• Golub Capital (GBDC) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $14
• HBT Financial (HBT) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $30
• Hershey (HSY) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $213
• Lowe’s (LOW) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $285
• McDonald’s (MCD) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $355
• Wayfair (W) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $123
• Downgrades
• Afya (AFYA) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $22
• Alerus Financial (ALRS) Cut to Market Perform at Hovde Group
• Arthur J Gallagher (AJG) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $272
• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Cut to Sector Underperform at Scotiabank
• Axalta (AXTA) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $35
• Bain Capital Specialty Finance (BCSF) US Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $14
• Bank of America (BAC) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• Bigbear.ai (BBAI) Cut to Neutral at Cantor; PT $6
• BJ’s Wholesale (BJ) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $90
• Blackstone Sec Lending (BXSL) Cut to Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $24
• Chain Bridge Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• ChoiceOne Financial Services (COFS) US Cut to Market Perform at Hovde Group
• Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Crocs (CROX) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $100
• Deckers Outdoor (DECK) Cut to Underweight at Piper Sandler; PT $85
• Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $125
• Fidelis Insurance (FIHL) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $21
• First Solar (FSLR) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $260
• Gitlab (GTLB) Cut to Neutral at Cantor; PT $40
• Graphic Packaging (GPK) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $18
• Heritage Commerce (HTBK) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Humana (HUM) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $290
• JPMorgan (JPM) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• Lakeland Financial (LKFN) Cut to Market Perform at Hovde Group
• M&T Bank (MTB) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• MidCap Financial (MFIC) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $11
• Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) US Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $16
• OneStream (OS) Cut to Neutral at Rosenblatt Securities Inc; PT $24
• Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $24
• Cut to Hold at Loop Capital; PT $24
• Cut to Neutral at Guggenheim
• Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $24
• Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $24
• Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $24
• Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $24
• Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $24
• Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $24
• Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• Portillo’s (PTLO) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $6
• Prosperity Banc (PB) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• SoundThinking Inc (SSTI) Cut to Neutral at Cantor; PT $10
• State Street (STT) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs
• U.S. Bancorp (USB) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• Union Pacific (UNP) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $255
• Universal Health (UHS) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $235
• W R Berkley Corp (WRB) Cut to Underperform at Evercore ISI; PT $69
• Wolverine World Wide (WWW) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $16
• Yum (YUM) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
• Initiations
• Adyen (ADYEN NA) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $19.89
• Applied Digital (APLD) Rated New Buy at Arete; PT $99
• Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $36
• ATRenew (RERE) ADRs Rated New Buy at Huatai Research; PT $7.64
• Badger Meter (BMI) Rated New Underweight at Barclays; PT $157
• Compugen (CGEN) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $4
• Design Therapeutics (DSGN) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $18
• Dream Finders (DFH) Rated New Market Perform at Citizens
• Erasca (ERAS) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $5
• Evolve Royalties (EVR CN) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT C$4.25
• Galecto (GLTO) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $46
• Jade Biosciences Inc (JBIO) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $25
• Legend Biotech (LEGN) ADRs Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $75
• M/I Homes (MHO) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $165
• Meritage Homes (MTH) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $90
• Natera (NTRA) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $300
• Olema Pharma (OLMA) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $40
• ON Semi (ON) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• ORIC Pharma (ORIC) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $22
• Palvella Therapeutics (PVLA) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities
• Protara Therapeutics Inc (TARA) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler
• PulteGroup (PHM) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $145
• Taylor Morrison (TMHC) Reinstated Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $95
• Toll Brothers (TOL) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $175
• Tri Pointe Homes (TPH) Reinstated Market Outperform at Citizens
• Vertical Aerospace (EVTL) Rated New Outperform at William Blair

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke