Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   9:45ET S&P Global US Manufacturing – Services – Composite PMIs; 10:00ET Leading Index,
U. of Mich. Sentiment; 11:00ET Kansas City Fed Services Activity

Highlights and News:  

• Chinese officials told country’s largest tech firms they can prepare orders for Nvidia’s H200 AI chips
• Japanese Officials Decline to Comment on Yen Surge
• Euro-Zone Inflation Dipped Below ECB’s 2% Target Last Month
• German Economy Grows for First Year Since 2022
• Kremlin says “territorial issue” remains unresolved after Putin held late-night talks with US envoys
• Bonds and Gold Attract Big Inflows as Stocks See Outflows: BofA
• US Urges Backup Power as Winter Storm Nears

Global stock markets are mixed although overall sentiment appears cautiously optimistic after recent volatility tied to geopolitical headlines. Equity funds saw large
weekly outflows, driven by selling in China and the US, while bonds and gold saw inflows, Bank of America says. US stocks outflows resumed while Europe had its sixth week of inflows. Private-sector activity in the euro area maintained moderate growth in January,
helped by Germany’s economic recovery as both the manufacturing and the services sector improved. German investor confidence soared to its highest level since mid-2021, driven by increased government spending that is helping revive the country’s ailing manufacturing
sector. The ZEW institute’s expectations index climbed to 59.6 in January, up sharply from 45.8 the month before. France, meanwhile, disappointed as political turmoil over the country’s budget weighed on demand. A composite reading later in the day from the
UK came in well ahead of expectations, at 53.9. Euro-zone inflation was slower than initially reported in December, falling below the European Central Bank’s 2% goal for the first time since May.  

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures trimmed declines as Chinese officials told the country’s largest tech firms they can prepare orders for Nvidia’s H200 AI chips, suggesting Beijing is close to formally
approving imports. Nvidia shares are rallying, gaining over 2% in premarket trading. Intel shares plunged about 13% post-market after its CEO gave a lackluster forecast and warned that the chipmaker was struggling with manufacturing problems. Intel’s first-quarter
projections for revenue and earnings fell short of estimates, with the company expecting to break even in earnings per share. Small caps continued extending their winning run over large caps, driven by concerns about an overheating AI sector and optimism that
broader economic improvement will support more segments of the market. In corporate news, Amazon.com is gearing up to ax thousands more corporate employees, ratcheting up efforts to streamline bureaucracy. Focus next week turns to the Fed policy decision.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.2%, Nasdaq -0.3%, Russell 2000 -0.3%, DJI -0.4%.

In pre-market trading, Nvidia (NVDA) gains 1.5% after Chinese officials were said to have told the country’s largest tech firms, including Alibaba Group they can prepare
orders for Nvidia Corp.’s H200 AI chips. Solar stocks are extending gains after Elon Musk commented on solar-powered satellites in his Davos talk on Thursday. Array Technologies (ARRY) +2%, First Solar (FSLR) +1.4%. Booz Allen (BAH) rises 5% after the defense
contractor boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year. Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) falls 2% after the bank reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that missed. CSX Corp. (CSX) gains 2% after the freight transportation
company provided some guidance for 2026, including low single-digit revenue growth. Intel (INTC) plunges 13% after Chief Executive Officer Lip-Bu Tan gave a lackluster forecast and warned that the chipmaker was struggling with manufacturing problems. Intuitive
Surgical (ISRG) gains 1.5% after the medical equipment firm reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that surpassed estimates.

European gauges fluctuate in choppy trading with telecoms and energy sectors outperforming, while travel and insurance sectors lag. Germany’s economy grew for the first
year since 2022 as a government spending helped GDP rise 0.2% in 2025 following two consecutive annual contractions. British technology and financial services firms drove the fastest private-sector growth in almost two years, according to S&P Global’s purchasing
managers’ index. The index jumped to a 21-month high of 53.9 in January, much better than the 51.5 reading expected. Ericsson shares surge as much as 12% after the telecom equipment maker reported stronger-than-expected sales. SFS Group gained as much as 7.4%
after analysts said the Swiss tool and component supplier delivered stronger growth than expected in a challenging market. Watches of Switzerland shares rise as much as 6.4% after the luxury watch seller acquired Deutsch & Deutsch. C&C Group shares plunge
as much as 18% after the alcoholic beverage maker said trading has been worse than expected. Stoxx 600 -0.2%, DAX +0.05%, CAC -0.3%, FTSE 100 +0.1%. Energy +1.7%, Defense +1.3%, Basic Resources +1.3%, Telecom +1%. Travel & Leisure -1.6%, Insurance -1.5%, Banks
-1.1%.

Shares in Asia were mixed to higher as fears over tariffs and Greenland faded. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.4%, ending the week steady after rising for four
straight weeks. Korea’s Kospi advanced to a fresh record near the 5,000 level. The Straits Times Index rose to a record as Singapore started handing out some of the S$5 billion it plans to invest in local stocks to selected fund managers. Equities gained in
Tokyo as the yen weakened after the Bank of Japan held interest rates steady as expected. The Bank of Japan maintained its hawkish stance on inflation forecasts today, while emphasizing ongoing vigilance against upward price pressures stemming from the yen’s
weakness—indicating policymakers’ commitment to continuing gradual increases in still-low interest rates amid a politically sensitive environment. Chinese pharmaceutical retailer stocks jumped after the government said it’ll work to boost the sector. Intel
supplier stocks mostly decline in Asia after the US chipmaker’s first-quarter earnings outlook fell short of market expectations. Singapore +1.3%, Kospi +0.75%, Taiwan +0.7%, Hang Seng Index +0.45%, Topix +0.4%, Thailand +0.2%, ASX 200 +0.1%. CSI 300 -0.45%,
Indonesia -0.45%, Vietnam -0.6%, Sensex -0.9%, Philippines -1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold small gains with long-end yields about 2bp richer on the day, flattening the curve slightly. US 10-year yields flat at 4.24%; 2s10s -1.5bps. India’s
holdings of US Treasuries fell to $174 billion, a five-year low, joining a broader shift. Focal points of US session include S&P Global US PMIs and University of Michigan sentiment gauge, as well as next week’s supply — both corporate and Treasury coupon auctions
scheduled to start Monday. Treasury coupon auctions next week include 2-, 5- and 7-year notes on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday respectively, avoiding FOMC rate decision Wednesday.

METALS: 

Spot silver rises more than 3% to an all-time high just below $100 an ounce, while gold climbed to a record above $4,967 before paring gains. Platinum also hit a
peak. Precious metals are likely to stay in strong demand if investors persist in shifting away from US assets, driven by unpredictable US policy and elevated geopolitical tensions. Gold is closing in on $5,000 an ounce, with geopolitical risks and renewed
threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence supporting a record-breaking rally. Spot gold -0.1%, Silver +3%, Copper futures +2.2%.

ENERGY:   

Oil rose as the dollar headed for its worst week in seven months, capping a tumultuous few days that saw a deterioration of US-Europe relations and unresolved talks
to end the war in Ukraine. Brent crude rose above $65 a barrel, headed for a fifth weekly gain, while WTI is near $60.50.  Flows are also returning in the Mediterranean and Black Sea region, while Venezuelan oil finds its way into global markets. Global stockpiles
are projected to swell by 3.7 million barrels a day this year, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest assessment. Meanwhile, the stalemate between Russia and Ukraine persists as meetings between US envoys and the Kremlin are set to be extended
into the weekend. Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains his demands for parts of Ukraine that remain under Kyiv’s control.  WTI +1.9%, Brent +1.9%, US Nat Gas -0.5%, RBOB +1.1%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the yen weakened and then strengthened after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press briefing, and authorities declined to comment on whether
they intervened in the market. USD/JPY plunged over 150 pips in just a few minutes before swiftly bouncing during the BoJ press conference after Governor Ueda didn’t offer any clear signal that an early rate hike was possible. Japanese authorities are watching
currency movements with a sense of urgency, according to Finance Minister Katayama. Top currency official Atsushi Mimura told reporters he does not intend to comment at this stage on whether the government stepped into the market to support the yen. Sterling
rose after PMI topped estimates and hawkish remarks from BOE’s Greene. The euro eased after euro-area PMI was less impressive. The US dollar is poised for its worst week since June as unpredictable US policymaking weighed on the currency ahead of next week’s
Federal Reserve meeting. US$ Index -0.05%, GBPUSD +0.2%, EURUSD -0.1%, USDJPY -0.15%, AUDUSD +0.3%, NZDUSD -0.25%, USDCHF +0.15%, USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK is flat, USDNOK -0.3%.

Spot Bitcoin +0.1%, Spot Ethereum -0.3%.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Acushnet (GOLF) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $96
• Applied Materials (AMAT) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $390
• Darden (DRI) Raised to Buy at Melius
• Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $235
• Fortinet (FTNT) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $100
• Impala (IMP SJ) ADRs Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $23
• P&G (PG) Raised to Buy at DBS Bank; PT $167
• Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $165
• Redwood Trust (RWT) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $6
• RLI (RLI) Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT $52
• Sibanye Stillwater (SSW SJ) ADRs Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $24.80
• Spotify (SPOT) Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $700
• Starbucks (SBUX) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
• Stepan (SCL) Raised to Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT $75
• Downgrades
• Axalta (AXTA) Cut to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
• BJ’s Wholesale (BJ) Cut to Hold at Melius; PT $100
• Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Cut to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
• Confluent (CFLT) Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein
• Entegris (ENTG) Cut to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
• FB Financial (FBK) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $65
• Inspire Medical (INSP) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $96
• Li Auto (LI) ADRs Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $17.50
• Lundin Mining (LUN CN) Cut to Hold at Handelsbanken; PT C$35.13
• Materion (MTRN) Cut to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
• OFG Bancorp (OFG) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $43
• Quaker Houghton (KWR) Cut to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
• Safehold Inc (SAFE) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $14
• Sherwin-Williams (SHW) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank
• Southern Copper (SCCO) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $117.50
• Trade Desk (TTD) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• Two Harbors (TWO) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $14
• Wolverine World Wide (WWW) Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas
• Initiations
• Ameresco (AMRC) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $41
• Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT) Reinstated Buy at Roth Capital Partners
• Armanino Foods of Distinction (AMNF) US Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $15
• Bandwidth (BAND) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $20
• Black Diamond (BDI CN) Rated New Buy at Paradigm Capital; PT C$20
• Centuri Holdings (CTRI) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $34
• Coherus Oncology (CHRS) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer
• Decoy Therapeutics Inc (DCOY) Rated New Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann
• eGain Corp (EGAN) Rated New Neutral at B Riley; PT $10.50
• Elf Beauty (ELF) Reinstated Buy at Citi; PT $110
• Everus Construction Group (ECG) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $97
• Heico (HEI) Rated New Neutral at Susquehanna; PT $385
• Heritage Distilling Holding (IPST) US Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $8.20
• Hinge Health (HNGE) Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $59
• Insmed (INSM) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $212
• MasTec (MTZ) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $274
• Melco Resorts (MLCO) ADRs Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $11.50
• Mirion Technologies (MIR) Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
• MYR Group (MYRG) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $285
• N-able (NABL) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $10
• Pecoy Copper (PCU CN) Rated New Outperform at National Bank; PT C$2.25
• Powell Industries (POWL) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $427
• Primoris Services (PRIM) Rated New Neutral at Cantor; PT $160
• Quanta Services (PWR) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $520
• Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $413
• STMicro (STMPA FP) ADRs Rated New Neutral at Intesa Sanpaolo; PT $32.80
• VTV Therapeutics (VTVT) Reinstated Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $58

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke