Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   9:45ET Bank of Canada Rate Decision; 11:00ET Trump will be giving remarks on TRUMP ACCOUNTS;
11:30ET $30B 2-year FRN; 2:00ET FOMC Rate Decision; 2:30ET Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference

Highlights and News:  

• TRUMP: TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR IRAN; ‘MASSIVE ARMADA’ IS HEADING QUICKLY TO IRAN
• TRUMP: NEXT ATTACK WOULD BE WORSE THAN STRIKE ON NUCLEAR SITES
• Elon Musk Eyes Timing SpaceX IPO With Planetary Alignment
• Indonesian stocks tumbled after MSCI raised concerns about their investability
• Deutsche Bank Offices Inspected by Frankfurt Prosecutor
• Amazon Cuts 16,000 Jobs to Trim Bureaucracy
• OpenAI Said to Get Additional $30B From SoftBank
• China approved purchases of Nvidia’s H200 AI chips
• WTI holding key .618 Fibonacci retracement
  

Global stock markets show a mixed but generally steady-to-cautious tone ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later today and a wave of major tech earnings.
Investors are watching for earnings from megacap technology companies this week, for signs on whether the artificial intelligence-led rally can be sustained.  Broader global equities have been strong in 2026 so far, with broadening beyond mega-caps.  MSCI’s
emerging markets index is rallying for a fifth consecutive day and extending January’s gains past 10%. Meanwhile, Indonesian stocks plunged after MSCI froze some index changes until regulators address concerns over tightly held ownership of listed firms. President
Trump warned this morning that Iran’s window for negotiation is closing fast, with any future US strike set to exceed the severity of the recent nuclear site attacks, while noting that a “massive armada” is rapidly en route to the region. Iran’s deputy foreign
minister said talks with the US are not a priority and no formal negotiations are underway.

EQUITIES:  Earnings: MSFT, META, TSLA, ASML,
IBM, NOW, GD

US equity futures are higher as tech shares cheer reports of yet another lofty OpenAI funding round. SoftBank is in talks to invest up to an additional $30B in OpenAI, The Wall Street
Journal reported. The S&P 500 futures are pointing to a sixth-straight advance that would mark the longest winning run in almost seven months. Technology leads the headlines after results from Texas Instruments and ASML, while Microsoft, Meta and Tesla are
due to report later. Texas Instruments climbed in US premarket trading after a stronger-than-expected forecast signaled recovering demand for industrial chips. Nvidia shares rose 1.9% premarket after China approved purchases of its H200 AI chips, potentially
unlocking about $10 billion in sales. The powerful chips are more advanced than any Nvidia was previously allowed to sell in China, with buyers including Alibaba and ByteDance. In company news, Amazon is cutting about 16,000 roles across the company as part
of ongoing organizational restructuring efforts. Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later today, with no rate changes anticipated until at least mid-2026, after Chair Jerome Powell leaves his post. 

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.8%, Russell 2000 +0.4%, DJI is flat.

In pre-market trading, Semiconductor, memory and storage stocks rally after positive results from ASML, Seagate and Texas Instruments. ASML ADRs (ASML) are up 5% after
the company reported orders well beyond investor expectations. Seagate (STX) is up 8% after the computer hardware and storage company’s second-quarter results beat expectations and it gave a positive outlook. Texas Instruments (TXN) gains 7% after the chipmaker
gave an outlook that is seen as positive, signaling improved demand. AT&T Inc. (T) rises 3% after reporting fourth-quarter profit and revenue that beat analysts’ estimates, buoyed by what it described as the best broadband subscriber growth in a decade. Brinker
(EAT) rises 5% after the parent of Chili’s and Maggiano’s restaurants reported second-quarter results that topped Street expectations. C3.ai (AI) gains 15% after The Information reported that the AI company is in talks to merge with Automation Anywhere. Corning
(GLW) falls 3% after the communications equipment company reported its fourth-quarter results and gave an outlook. Elevance Health (ELV) drops 6% after the health insurer gave an adjusted profit forecast for 2026 that fell short. F5 Inc. (FFIV) jumps 8% after
the cybersecurity company boosted its revenue forecast for the fiscal year. Qorvo (QRVO) falls 10% after the semiconductor device company gave an outlook that was much weaker than expected. StandardAero (SARO) falls 5% as leading holders Carlyle and GIC offer
50 million shares in the aviation maintenance company.

European gauges dropped as weak results from France’s LVMH dashed hopes of a luxury-sector revival and overshadowed blowout results from ASML Holding NV. ASML rises
as much as 7.5% to a record high in Amsterdam after reporting orders well beyond investor expectations, driven by demand for its cutting-edge chip-making machines. Nordnet gains as much as 6.1% after the Swedish retail trading platform and bank reported its
latest earnings. Volvo shares rise as much as 3.2% after the Swedish firm said truck demand was improving in some markets. Paypoint shares gain as much as 14% after the payments company reported third-quarter results. LVMH fell as much as 8.2% after the luxury
group reported a wider-than-expected drop in fashion and leather goods organic sales for the fourth quarter. Marston’s shares drop as much as 16% to wipe out most of this month’s sharp gain after the pub operator reported muted sales. Deutsche Bank AG saw
its offices raided, causing shares to drop over 3%. Frankfurt prosecutors and the Federal Criminal Police Office is conducting an investigation against unknown Deutsche Bank employees in connection with money laundering allegations. Stoxx 600 -0.7%, DAX -0.6%,
CAC -1.4%, FTSE 100 -0.5%. Luxury -3.3%, Healthcare -2.4%, Personal Goods -2%. Technology +1.9%, Energy +0.8%.

Shares in Asia were mixed to higher, supported by a continued rally in technology shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 1% to notch another all-time high, led
by heavyweight contributors TSMC, SK Hynix, and Tencent. Hong Kong stocks led regional gains on inflows fueled by the weakening dollar, while South Korean shares climbed, propelling the country’s total market capitalization past Germany’s. Indonesian stocks
tumbled after MSCI raised concerns about their investability and warned of a potential downgrade to frontier-market status. Japanese semiconductor stocks advanced following ASML’s stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter orders, as the accelerating buildout of
AI infrastructure drove heightened demand for the company’s state-of-the-art lithography equipment. Shares of some Indian automakers declined as South Africa considers imposing tariffs of as much as 50% on vehicles from China and India to protect local manufacturing.
Memory and storage makers gained ahead of rare dual earnings calls on Thursday for Samsung and SK Hynix. Hang Seng Index +2.6%, Kospi +1.7%, Taiwan +1.5%, Philippines +0.8%, Sensex +0.6%, Thailand +0.3%, CSI 300 +0.25%, Nikkei +0.05%. ASX 200 -0.1%, Singapore
-0.3%, Topix -0.8%, Vietnam -1.5%, Indonesia -7.3%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields are narrowly lower, with the curve just a bit steeper. US session features Federal Reserve rate decision, with swaps market priced for no change in
the 3.5%-3.75% target range for federal funds. 10-year yield trades around 4.24%. With announcement of a nominee to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell in May pending and Governor Christopher Waller among the contenders, a focal point of the rate decision will
be whether he dissents in favor of a rate cut that Trump is seeking; dissents by Governors Stephen Miran and Michelle Bowman are also expected. Bond traders are betting on a dovish Fed shift as BlackRock’s Rick Rieder gains momentum to succeed Powell.

METALS: 

Gold rose briefly above $5,300 per ounce, extending a rally fueled by US dollar weakness and a flight from sovereign bonds and currencies. Trump brushed off the dollar’s
recent weakness, making dollar-priced bullion more attractive to overseas buyers. Analysts at
⁠Deutsche Bank say that gold could climb to $6,000 an ounce this year, citing persistent
investment demand. The rally in base metals could soon run into headwinds as soaring prices and bullish sentiment clash with the reality of softer demand from manufacturers, especially in China, according to Goldman Sachs Group. Goldman’s latest copper market
survey revealed that fabricators’ order books have dropped 10% to 30%, driven by reduced activity from downstream users in sectors like consumer electronics and hardware, with even grid-related orders showing signs of deceleration. Spot gold +1.8%, Silver
+1.7%, Copper futures +0.9%. Gold futures are most overbought since May 2020.

ENERGY:   

Oil nudges higher around a four-month high as traders monitored President Trump’s renewed threats against Iran. Market sentiment appears to be gradually turning more
positive, as the bearish oversupply narrative weakens. Brent traded below $68 a barrel after jumping 3% in the previous session to settle at the highest level since September. Trump reiterated that a “big armada” was headed to the Middle East, adding that
hopefully the US won’t have to use it.  Trump’s focus on Iran followed the Islamic regime’s crackdown on protests against the government, injecting some risk premium into oil prices. The prompt spread for both oil benchmarks has widened in a bullish backwardation
structure over the course of this month, indicating tighter supply. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the Trump administration is prepared to use force to ensure that Venezuela’s acting President Delcy Rodríguez cooperates with the US.  WTI +0.8%, Brent
+0.7%, US Nat Gas -4.2%, RBOB +0.9%. 

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar steadied after yesterday’s sharp decline but hovered near four-year lows. The US$ Index is down nearly 2.8% since last Wednesday,
marking its sharpest weekly drop since the “Liberation Day” market chaos in April last year. Trump stated Tuesday that the dollar’s value was “great” when questioned on whether its recent drop had gone too far, prompting traders to ramp up selling of the greenback
in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement later today. The euro is lower after it broke above $1.20 for the first time since 2021. The ECB is closely watching how an appreciating euro is affecting inflation and will consider the impact when
setting monetary policy, according to Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau. Sterling retreats after reaching 4½-year peaks. The yen is lower but is on track for its best monthly gain versus the dollar since last April, fueled by ongoing talk
of coordinated Japanese-US official intervention to bolster the yen. Australia’s persistently hot inflation is positioning the Reserve Bank of Australia to potentially become the first major central bank to raise interest rates in 2026, an embarrassing reversal
less than six months after its last rate cut. US$ Index -0.05%, GBPUSD -0.45%, EURUSD -0.55%, USDJPY +0.25%, AUDUSD -0.15%, NZDUSD -0.3%, USDCHF +0.8%, USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK +0.8%, USDNOK +0.45%.

Spot Bitcoin +1.3%, Spot Ethereum +0.7%. Crypto giant Tether is shaking things up with a 140-ton hoard of gold stored in a Swiss nuclear bunker. The company’s CEO
said he plans to keep ploughing profits into the metal.  

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Applied Materials (AMAT) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities
• Bank of Montreal (BMO CN) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$209
• Circle Internet (CRCL) Raised to Neutral at Mizuho Securities
• Energy Fuels (EFR CN) Raised to Neutral at Roth Capital Partners
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
• KKR & Co. (KKR) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $144
• Korro Bio, Inc. (KRRO) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $22
• Raised to Overweight at Cantor
• Microchip (MCHP) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $95
• Nextpower (NXT) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $142
• Texas Instruments (TXN) Raised to Neutral at BofA; PT $235
• Visa (V) Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $385
• Downgrades
• Array (ARRY) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $11
• BJ’s Wholesale (BJ) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $90
• Brown & Brown (BRO) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $83
• Capital City Bank (CCBG) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $45
• Coca-Cola Femsa (KOFUBL MM) ADRs Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $100
• Enel Chile (ENELCHIL CI) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Grupo Santander; PT $4.60
• Martin Marietta (MLM) Cut to Hold at Loop Capital; PT $690
• Nucor (NUE) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $183
• PayPal (PYPL) Cut to Sell at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $50
• PRA Group (PRAA) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• Roper (ROP) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $385
• Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
• Western Alliance (WAL) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $105
• Initiations
• Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $32
• Altimmune (ALT) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $20
• Apellis Pharma (APLS) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $24
• Ascendis Pharma (ASND) ADRs Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $342
• Bloom Energy (BE) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $153
• Bridgebio (BBIO) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $157
• Coinbase (COIN) Rated New Neutral at Baird; PT $240
• Crescent Biopharma (CBIO) Reinstated Overweight at Piper Sandler
• Dauch Corp. (AXL) American Axle Rated New Buy at BWS Financial; PT $17
• Entrada Therapeutics (TRDA) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $21
• FormFactor (FORM) Rated New Hold at Freedom Capital; PT $64
• Futu Holdings (FUTU) ADRs Reinstated Outperform at CCB Intl; PT $250
• GE Vernova (GEV) Rated New Buy at China Renaissance; PT $966
• Gossamer Bio (GOSS) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $9
• HeartFlow (HTFL) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $38
• Insmed (INSM) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $231
• Inventiva SACA (IVA FP) ADRs Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $18
• Madrigal Pharma (MDGL) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $964
• MBX Biosciences (MBX) Rated New Overweight at Barclays
• Nano Nuclear Energy (NNE) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $49
• NuScale Power (SMR) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $23
• Oklo (OKLO) Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $138
• Raymond James (RJF) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $191
• Rush Enterprises (RUSHA) Rated New Neutral at UBS; PT $70
• Sagimet Biosciences (SGMT) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $8
• Shattuck Labs (STTK) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $15
• SiriusXM (SIRI) Rated New Neutral at MoffettNathanson LLC; PT $21
• Spotify (SPOT) Rated New Neutral at MoffettNathanson LLC; PT $487
• Tyra Biosciences (TYRA) Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $59
• uniQure (QURE) Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $31
• Warner Music (WMG) Rated New Buy at MoffettNathanson LLC; PT $38

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke