Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  9:40ET Fed’s Bowman speaks; 10:00ET JOLTS Job Openings (delayed by gov shutdown)

Highlights and News:  

• Clintons agree to testify in Epstein congressional probe
  
• US envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran’s foreign minister Araghchi are set to meet on Friday in Istanbul for nuclear deal discussions
• Gold Set For Biggest Daily Gain Since November 2008
• INDIA, US TO SOON RELEASE JOINT STATEMENT ON TRADE DEAL: GOYAL
• Schumer: “The SAVE Act is dead on arrival in the Senate”
• X HQ being raided by French authorities in ongoing probe
• SPACEX, XAI VALUED AT $1.25 TRILLION: COMPANY MEMO
• Trump said he’s seeking $1 billion in “damages” from Harvard
• Friday’s Employment Report Will be Delayed Due to Gov Shutdown
  

Global stocks climbed as precious metals staged a recovery and strong results from Palantir Technologies fueled a surge in tech shares.  A long-awaited trade deal
between the United States and India also added to sentiment. Indian domestic markets rallied after President Trump announced that tariffs on Indian goods would be cut to 18% from 50% in return for India halting Russian oil purchases and lowering trade barriers.
Euro-zone banks unexpectedly tightened corporate credit standards at the end of 2025, raising doubts over investment and broader economic momentum ahead of this week’s ECB interest-rate decision. France’s parliament passed the 2026 budget after Prime Minister
Sébastien Lecornu weathered two no-confidence motions. The approved version features milder spending reductions and tax hikes than initially proposed, leading to a wider deficit for the year. Ukraine faced the biggest Russian missile and drone attack so far
this year after the Kremlin ended a brief moratorium on strikes against energy infrastructure. Ukrainian, Russian and US officials are due to resume trilateral negotiations aimed at reaching a peace deal in the United Arab Emirates on Wednesday.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are higher, led by tech, after blockbuster results from Palantir renewed the AI trade. Earnings remain front and center, with PepsiCo, Pfizer and AMD due today. Palantir
shares rally 11% in premarket after a stronger-than-expected sales outlook, forecasting for 61% sales growth this year. The positioning gap between S&P 500 futures versus the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 suggests that investors are yet to fully rotate into
a broad risk-on stance, according to Citigroup strategists. Elon Musk confirmed the combination of SpaceX and xAI in a deal that values the enlarged entity at $1.25 trillion, with the company planning an IPO later this year. Republican resistance to Trump’s
bipartisan deal to end the partial government shutdown began collapsing late Monday. Conservative holdouts Reps. Anna Paulina Luna (FL) and Tim Burchett (TN) dropped their blockade after White House talks, paving the way for a Tuesday vote. Investors will
turn their attention to earnings from Advanced Micro Devices after the close, watching for signs that the company is challenging Nvidia’s dominance in the market for artificial-intelligence accelerators.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.25%, Nasdaq +0.55%, Russell 2000 +0.3%, DJI ~flat.

In pre-market trading, Gold and silver miners including Newmont (NEM +4%) gain as precious metal prices climb out of a three-day slide. AES Corp. (AES) rises 8% after
BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners is said to team up with EQT AB in a bid to acquire the power company. Eaton Corp. (ETN) falls 5% after the power equipment company forecast adjusted earnings below expectations. Fabrinet (FN) falls 4% after the engineering
and manufacturing services company’s results showed component constraints pressuring the datacom business. HP Inc. (HPQ) slips 2% as CEO Enrique Lores stepped down to lead PayPal Holdings. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) rises 11% after the company forecast revenue
for fiscal 2026 that significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations. PayPal Holdings (PYPL) falls 15% after the fintech reported profit and revenue fell short of expectations. Rambus (RMBS) slides 8% after analysts note that a supply chain hiccup weighed
on the semiconductor device company’s first-quarter outlook. Teradyne (TER) soars 20% after the semiconductor manufacturing company forecast revenue for the first quarter that exceeded estimates. Pepsi (PEP +0.6%) earnings beat and it announced a $10 billion
share buyback. The WSJ reported it’s cutting some snack prices as much as 15%.
NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) slid 8% after the company posted fourth-quarter results.

European gauges give up early gains that took the Stoxx 600 index to an all-time peak. Miners outperform, tracking a rebound in precious metals, while a drop in Publicis
Groupe weighed on media shares. French inflation eased to a five-year low, staying well short of the European Central Bank’s 2% target as energy prices fell. Consumer prices rose 0.4% from a year ago in January after a 0.7% advance the previous month. Among
individual names, Amundi shares advanced as much as 6.4% after Europe’s largest asset manager reported a “solid update and announced a €500m share buyback. Plus500 shares rose as much as 8.5% in London after the trading platform announced its entry into the
US retail prediction markets through a deal struck with Kalshi Exchange. R&S jumps as much as 24% after the Swiss transformers manufacturer posted order intakes for the full year that surpassed estimates. Publicis shares drop as much as 9% despite strong results.
Analysts note the advertising agency’s conservative growth guidance for 2026 implies a slowdown. Stoxx 600 +0.1%, DAX +0.3%, CAC -0.1%, FTSE 100 -0.5%. Basic Resources +2.7%, Defense +1.1%, Banks +0.9%. Media -3.8%, Retail -2.2%, Technology -1.9%.

Shares in Asia were broadly higher on a rebound in precious metals and resurgent excitement around artificial intelligence. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 3.1% for
its best day since April 10. Kospi surges more than 6% and Nikkei jumps almost 4%, while Indian shares rally following a US trade deal. Hang Seng Tech Index fell, briefly flirting with bear market territory amid concerns over possible VAT hike. Chinese Internet
firms slumped in Hong Kong amid concerns over the possibility that they could be levied higher value-added tax after the government raised taxes on the country’s telcos. Indian equities rallied after President Trump announced tariff cuts. Asian stocks with
ties to space communication development surged as the merger between Elon Musk’s SpaceX and xAI bolsters sentiment. Kospi +6.8%, Nikkei 225 +3.9%, Sensex +2.5%, Indonesia +2.5%, Taiwan +1.8%, Philippines +1.7%, CSI 300 +1.2%, ASX 200 +0.9%, Vietnam +0.4%,
Hang Seng Index +0.2%. Hang Seng Tech -1.1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are slightly cheaper across tenors with curve spreads little changed amid weakness in bunds and gilts despite strong demand for UK 10-year debt sale. 
US 10-year yield is up one basis point at 4.29%; 2s10s +1bp; 5s30s-0.5bp. Treasury coupon auctions resume next week with 3-, 10- and 30-year supply, starting Feb. 10.

METALS: 

Precious metals surged, with gold set for its biggest daily rise since November 2008, as investors piled into the metals after their steepest two-day decline in decades.
Spot gold climbed more than 5% to rise above $4,920, while silver jumped more than 11%. China plans to expand copper inventories by working with state-owned smelters to secure supply after prices hit record highs. Spot gold +5.6%, Silver +11.3%, Copper futures
+4.7%. 

Gold, silver and copper futures get a nice bounce off the
50dma.

ENERGY:   

Oil reversed earlier losses on easing geopolitical risks and as traders sought clarity on a US-India trade deal. President Trump indicated that negotiations with
Iran on a fresh nuclear agreement could begin within days, following signals from Tehran expressing readiness to engage. ING analysts noted that fears of imminent US military action against Iran have eased, with talks on a nuclear deal now looking imminent.
Kuwait is planning to open up some of its oil fields to overseas firms and lease part of its pipeline network, a significant move by the OPEC member as it looks to position itself as a key investment destination in the Middle East. The OPEC+ alliance expects
global oil demand to grow gradually starting from March or April, bringing additional balance to the market, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak. WTI +0.6%, Brent +0.4%, US Nat Gas +1.3%, RBOB +0.9%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar traded in tight ranges, except against the Antipodean currencies. Aussie$ is the strongest performer in G-10 FX after the central
bank joined Japan as the only developed-world economy to raise interest rates. RBA lifted its cash rate to 3.85% as persistent inflation and capacity pressures outweighed the global trend toward easing. AUD 3-year yield jumps as much as 14 bps before halving
the move. The yen slipped versus the dollar and has retraced about half the gains it made that followed talk of possible joint US-Japan intervention to boost the yen. Polls show Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party heading for a landslide
victory at the weekend’s election, which could bolster her push for fiscal easing and exert upward pressure on bond yields and the yen. US$ Index -0.05%, GBPUSD +0.2%, EURUSD +0.1%, USDJPY +0.1%, AUDUSD +1.0%, NZDUSD +0.7%, USDCHF -0.3%, USDCAD -0.2%, USDSEK
-0.3%, USDNOK -0.3%.

Spot Bitcoin -0.4%, Spot Ethereum -1.8%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $76
• Baidu (BIDU) ADRs Raised to Buy at China Renaissance; PT $180
• Becton Dickinson (BDX) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $233
• Equity LifeStyle (ELS) Raised to Buy at BofA
• FedEx (FDX) Raised to Outperform at Bernstein; PT $427
• Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $380
• JetBlue (JBLU) Raised to Neutral at Citi
• JPMorgan (JPM) Raised to Neutral at Baird; PT $280
• Mastercard (MA) Raised to Outperform at Daiwa; PT $610
• Palantir (PLTR) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $200
• Popular (BPOP) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $156
• Q2 Holdings (QTWO) Raised to Buy at DA Davidson; PT $82
• Sigma Lithium Corp (SGML CN) Raised to Neutral at BofA; PT $14
• SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $31
• Stellar Bancorp (STEL) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $44
• Visa (V) Raised to Outperform at Daiwa; PT $370
• Downgrades
• Adobe (ADBE) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler
• Baytex Energy (BTE CN) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT C$4.75
• Coterra Energy (CTRA) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $31
• DHT Holdings (DHT) Cut to Hold at ABG; PT $14.30
• Elevance (ELV) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $358
• Exxon (XOM) Cut to Underperform at BNP Paribas; PT $125
• Figure Technology (FIGR) Cut to Underperform at BofA
• Foran Mining (FOM CN) Cut to Tender at ATB Capital; PT C$6.60
• Freshworks (FRSH) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler
• KE Holdings (2423 HK) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $19
• Lockheed (LMT) Cut to Hold at DZ Bank; PT $665
• Lycos Energy Inc (LCX CN) Cut to Sector Perform at ATB Capital
• Peakstone Realty Trust (PKST) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $21
• Schneider National (SNDR) Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $26
• Sun Country Airlines (SNCY) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $18
• Vertex (VERX) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler
• Initiations
• Aktis Oncology (AKTS) Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $31
• Rated New Buy at TD Cowen
• Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $30
• Alexandria Real Estate (ARE) Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $60
• AtkinsRealis (ATRL CN) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT C$135
• Caribou Biosciences (CRBU) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $13
• GCI Liberty (GLIBA) Rated New Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT $68
• Limbach Holdings (LMB) Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $100
• MSA Safety (MSA) Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $200
• Nebius Group (NBIS) Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $108
• Ovintiv (OVV) Rated New Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $44
• ReNew Energy (RNW) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $6.03
• Sagimet Biosciences (SGMT) Rated New Buy at Guggenheim; PT $27
• TaskUS (TASK) Rated New Outperform at Wedbush; PT $15

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke