Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:15ET ADP Weekly Employment Change; 8:30ET Import Price Index, Export Price Index, Employment
Cost Index, Retail Sales; 10:00ET Business Inventories; 12:00ET Fed’s Hammack speaks; 1:00ET $58 billion 3-year note auction, Fed’s Logan speaks

Highlights and News:  

• Trump administration is planning to grant major US tech companies a reprieve from forthcoming US tariffs on imported semiconductors
• TSMC Revenue Jump Signals Sustained AI Growth
• Trump says that chair nominee Kevin Warsh can get the economy to grow 15%
• President Macron of France said the EU needs to get tougher with Trump
• The semiconductor industry will reach $1 trillion in revenue this year for the first time ever (Source: SIA)
• BOE’s Mann says China is raising export prices due to US tariffs
• STRATEGY IS `NOT GOING TO BE SELLING’ BITCOIN, SAYLOR SAYS
• US women’s hockey team remained undefeated ahead of its standoff with Canada

Global stocks advance, with the MSCI All-Country World Index back at record highs led by an extended rally in Japan after Prime Minister Takaichi’s decisive weekend
election victory.  Investor attention will be looking ahead to a busy few days for US economic data including monthly reports covering US employment and consumer prices that were pushed back slightly due to a recent three-day government shutdown. Investors
continue to assess the unfolding earnings season and indications on the path for global monetary policy. The US warned American-flagged commercial vessels to stay as far as possible from Iranian waters when passing through the Strait of Hormuz, citing ongoing
risks of illegal boarding, detention, or seizure by Iranian forces. The advisory—effective through August 8, 2026—highlights persistent regional tensions, even as diplomacy inches forward. In political news, President Macron of France said the EU needs to
get tougher with Trump, who he said is pushing for the “dismemberment” of the bloc.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures fluctuated as traders prepare for a heavy slate of earnings and readings of consumer sales and small-business due today.  A relatively calm start to the session would
be in keeping with easing S&P 500 volatility, which has tailed off after reaching the highest since November. Demand for Alphabet’s bond offering helped ease worries about AI overspending, with Monday’s $20 billion debt launch attracting around $100 billion
of orders. The company is following that up today, with sterling and Swiss franc denominated bonds, including an ultra-rare 100 year note. JPMorgan strategists say investors should increase exposure to higher quality and AI-resilient software names as recent
extreme price action makes a rotation back into these stocks possible. Among fresh tailwinds for the AI trade, the Financial Times reported that US tech giants, including Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are set to get a carve-out from forthcoming tariffs on
imported semiconductors. This exemption would apply specifically to chips used in building out massive AI data centers, helping hyperscalers avoid added costs amid their aggressive expansion of AI infrastructure. In corporate news, the Teamsters Union sued
UPS, demanding the company shut down its planned buyout program targeting UPS Teamsters drivers.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.1%, Nasdaq -0.1%, Russell 2000 ~flat, DJI -0.1%

In pre-market trading, Amentum (AMTM) falls 9% after the government contractor’s first-quarter revenue missed the average analyst estimate pressured by the government
shutdown. Amkor Technology (AMKR) rises 3% after the semiconductor manufacturing company’s first-quarter revenue forecast was stronger than expected. Clear Channel Outdoor (CCO) climbs 8% after agreeing to be acquired by investors led by Mubadala Capital.
Credo Technology (CRDO) gains 17% after the communications equipment company’s preliminary third-quarter revenue was much stronger than expected.
Datadog (DDOG) rises 9% after the software company’s fourth-quarter results beat expectations on key metrics. DuPont (DD) is 2% higher after the chemicals company reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share that beat. Goodyear Tire (GT) is down
9% after the company forecast that global unit volumes will be down in the first quarter. Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) falls 13% after the company reported an unexpected drop in motorcycle shipments. Ichor (ICHR) gains 15% after the factory automation equipment
company forecast adjusted EPS for the first quarter that beat. ON Semiconductor (ON) falls 3% after the chipmaker gave 1Q revenue guidance that was just shy of analyst expectations. Regenxbio (RGNX) shares tumble 10% after US regulators rejected its gene therapy
for Hunter syndrome. Spotify (SPOT) rises 11% after the music streaming company reported a record 38 million monthly active users (MAUs) for the fourth quarter, surpassing its guidance for 32 million. Upwork (UPWK) shares are down 22% after the online recruitment
company’s first-quarter forecast was weaker than expected.

European gauges are muted in choppy trading amid a flurry of corporate earnings releases. Kering surges as much as 14% on better-than-expected
results at its Gucci unit, while BP Plc drops over 4% after halting share buybacks to prioritize debt reduction. Chemicals outperform after Goldman Sachs pivoted to a more positive view on the sector, while insurers lag. Thule shares gain as much as 15% after
fourth-quarter results surpassed expectations. Philips shares jump as much as 11% after the Dutch medical technology firm reported better-than-expected results and provided upbeat guidance for 2026. AstraZeneca reverses an early loss to gain as much as 2.3%
after the UK drugmaker provided upbeat sales guidance for 2026. Ferrari shares jumped over 7% after earnings and outlook beat estimates. TUI shares fall as much as 7.6% as analysts noted slower bookings revenue from Europe’s biggest travel operator. Stoxx
600 ~flat, DAX -0.2%, CAC +0.05%, FTSE 100 -0.4%. Insurance -1.6%, Travel -0.9%, Technology -0.3%. Autos +2.2%, Luxury +1.8%, Chemicals +1.7%.

Shares in Asia rose, as technology shares tracked their US peers higher on a revival of artificial intelligence enthusiasm. Alibaba debuted a model called RynnBrain
that can help robots and other devices perform real-world tasks. And TSMC revenue jumped 37% in January, the fastest clip in months, in a sign of sustained global AI spending. BofA almost doubled its Taiwan GDP growth forecast to 8% this year, citing “relentless
global demand” for AI hardware. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.2% to a fresh record high and third day of gains. Mazda shares surge as much as 13% after the Japanese automobiles company reported and earnings beat.  Japanese stocks have gotten a fresh
jolt on expectations that the greater parliamentary majority for Takaichi’s party will give her a mandate to increase fiscal spending and cut the sales tax on food. Indonesian equities edged higher even as index compiler FTSE Russell said it will join MSCI
in pausing its index review for the country. Nikkei 225 +2.3%, Taiwan +2.1%, Philippines +2%, Indonesia +1.25%, Thailand +0.7%, Hang Seng Index +0.6%, Sensex +0.25%, CSI 300 +0.1%, Kospi +0.1%. ASX 200 -0.05%, Vietnam -0.05%.

EEM/SPY: trying for a weekly close above the 200 week mvg avg for the first time since breaking it in September, 2011.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold small gains led by the long-end ahead of December retail sales data, with January employment report ahead on Wednesday. Treasury yields are 1bp-3bp
richer 3bp across the curve with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads tighter by 1bp and 1.5b. 10-year near 4.18% is 2bp richer on the day. Treasury’s 3-year auction has when-issued yield near 3.55%, about 6bp richer than last month’s, which stopped through by 0.1bp; supply
cycle includes 10- and 30-year new issues Wednesday and Thursday.

METALS: 

Gold prices eased after a two-day gain as improved risk appetite lifted global equities, while investors awaited a series of US economic data later this week that
could shape the outlook for interest rates. Indian investors put a record $2.65 billion into gold ETFs in January, slightly more than equity funds, underscoring strong demand for bullion amid geopolitical and monetary risks. Spot silver slipped over 1% after
rising nearly 7% in the previous session. Spot gold -0.5%, Silver -1.8%, Copper futures -1%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil prices steadied as traders assess the risks of supply disruptions in the Middle East after the US advised ships on Monday to steer clear of Iranian waters. The
Indian Coast Guard seized three tankers on Friday that it said were involved in oil smuggling, the first sign of the country getting tough on the so-called dark fleet. Brent trades above $69 a barrel, flipping between small gains and losses, following a two-day
advance as tensions in the Middle East centered on OPEC member Iran supported a risk premium. Crude has risen more than 10% this year as recurrent geopolitical flare-ups have outweighed concerns that a global surplus would lift inventories and hurt prices.
A series of key data releases this week will offer traders updated visibility into fundamentals, kicking off with the latest outlook from the EIA later today. WTI +0.1%, Brent +0.3%, US Nat Gas -0.6%, RBOB -0.3%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is mixed versus FX majors following two days of broad weakness. Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday he’s starting to see signs
that confidence in the US dollar is coming into question. The yen extended gains for a second day as Japanese equities extend post-election rally. The Chinese yuan strengthened past 6.91 per dollar for the first time since May 2023, bringing the gains to more
than 1% for the year, with analysts expecting further gains throughout the year. Australia’s dollar declined after soft consumer and business confidence data spurred profit-taking. The euro slipped as ECB President Christine Lagarde sought to downplay any
notion that the recent appreciation of the euro against the dollar would significantly alter the bank’s monetary policy trajectory, emphasizing that the ECB does not target exchange rates and views current levels as broadly in line with historical averages.
US$ Index %, GBPUSD -0.2%, EURUSD -0.2%, USDJPY -0.4%, AUDUSD -0.4%, NZDUSD -0.3%, USDCHF +0.05%, USDCAD +0.15%, USDSEK +0.2%, USDNOK -0.5%.

Spot Bitcoin -2.6%, Spot Ethereum -5.5%. 
STRATEGY IS `NOT GOING TO BE SELLING’ BITCOIN, SAYLOR SAYS

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Fluence Energy (FLNC) Raised to Buy at Jefferies
• Haivision Systems (HAI CN) Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT C$12
• Palantir (PLTR) Raised to Buy at Daiwa; PT $180
• Shopify (SHOP CN) Raised to Buy at MoffettNathanson LLC; PT C$203.57
• SiriusXM (SIRI) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $24
• Snap (SNAP) Raised to Buy at Arete; PT $7.30
• Sobi (SOBI SS) ADRs Raised to Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $27
• Thomson Reuters (TRI CN) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT C$170.82
• Vistra Corp (VST) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $203
• Downgrades
• Allied Gold (AAUC CN) Cut to Hold at Stifel Canada; PT C$44
• E.On (EOAN GR) ADRs Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT $21.40
• Estee Lauder (EL) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $106
• Frontier Airlines (ULCC) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $6
• Glacier Bancorp (GBCI) Cut to Neutral at Janney Montgomery; PT $55
• Kyndryl (KD) Cut to Neutral at Guggenheim
• Linde (LIN) Cut to Hold at DZ Bank; PT $460
• Minto Apartment (MI-U CN) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT C$18
• Monday.com (MNDY) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $90
• Cut to Hold at Loop Capital; PT $80
• Qualcomm (QCOM) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $132
• Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $188
• Transocean (RIG) Cut to Hold at Fearnley; PT $5.30
• Under Armour (UAA) Cut to Sell at Citi; PT $6.20
• Wingstop (WING) Cut to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $325
• Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $285
• ZoomInfo (GTM) Cut to Market Underperform at Citizens; PT $6
• Initiations
• Ceva (CEVA) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $30
• Microbot Medical (MBOT) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $5
• MillerKnoll (MLKN) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Orion Group (ORN) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $17
• Remitly (RELY) Rated New Buy at BofA; PT $18
• Somnigroup (SGI) Rated New Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $89
• Tyra Biosciences (TYRA) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Waters (WAT) Resumed Buy at Citi; PT $425
• Reinstated Overweight at Barclays; PT $400

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke