Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET *CPI*

Highlights and News:  

• Treasuries Rise After January CPI Rises Less Than Estimated; CPI +0.2%M/M est. +0.3%
• Trump plans to roll back some tariffs on steel and aluminum goods – FT
• The US and Taiwan signed a trade deal to cut tariffs and boost access for American products
• Japan says issues remain in finalizing first deals under US trade package
• RUSSIA, UKRAINE, US TALKS TO BE HELD FEB 17-18: IFX
• Equities See Major Inflows, No Panic Selling on Gold: BofA
• Some OPEC+ Nations See Scope to Resume Supply Hikes in April
• Trump revokes green vehicle emissions rules
• US EXPECTED TO ADD ALIBABA TO PENTAGON CHINA MILITARY LIST:RTRS
• Waymo robotaxis are stranded on the streets like confused Roombas when their doors are left open

Global stocks eased from record highs ahead of key US inflation data, as tech margin worries and AI disruption fears lingered following a week of selling. The Trump
team signed off on a comprehensive reciprocal trade deal confirming 15% US tariffs for goods from Taiwan, paired with Taiwan’s pledge to follow a timetable for phasing out or cutting tariffs on almost every category of American exports. Japan and the US have
agreed to speed up negotiations on the initial set of projects under Japan’s $550 billion investment package as some issues still need to be worked out, Trade Minister Akazawa said. Meanwhile, the White House is actively working to scale back the scope of
its expansive tariffs on steel and aluminum products that have proven challenging for companies to calculate and apply. Stock funds in Europe, Japan and other international developed markets have drawn a combined $104 billion this year, dwarfing the $25 billion
that’s flowed into US funds, according to BofA. Volatility may flare up further as traders square off positions to cut risk before the Presidents’ Day holiday on Monday and Lunar New Year holidays in China and several other Asian markets next week.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures ticked lower as traders turn their attention to key US inflation figures, while the earlier selloff driven by artificial-intelligence worries began to fade. This week’s
sharp market swings have underscored just how rapidly changes in sentiment toward AI can ripple well beyond the technology sector. Transportation companies were the latest sector to get caught up in worries about AI disruption on Thursday. Fears around AI
disruption have created a dramatic divide in the travel and leisure sector, with the stocks of online-booking platforms collapsing while traditional hotel operators have rallied. Thursday’s losses erased the year-to-date gains for the S&P 500, which is now
down 0.2%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index has lost 2.2% year-to-date. Punishment has turned “brutal” for any stocks perceived to be at risk from AI disruption, according to Wedbush Securities. Wall Street broker Clear Street postponed its IPO after cutting the
target by almost two-thirds.

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.5%, Russell 2000 -0.2%, DJI -0.3%

In pre-market trading, Airbnb (ABNB) is up 6% after the travel-booking platform’s first-quarter revenue forecast exceeded estimates. Applied Materials (AMAT) is up
11% after the semiconductor capital equipment company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook for adjusted earnings that is above the analyst consensus. Coinbase shares (COIN) advance 5.3% as investors look past a 4Q total
revenue miss and focus on optimism around crypto market structure legislation. Corsair Gaming shares (CRSR) gain 33% after the consumer electronics company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations. DraftKings (DKNG) slides 17% after the sports
betting company’s revenue forecast for 2026 missed estimates. Dutch Bros (BROS) jumps 15% after the coffee chain reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that surpassed Wall Street estimates. Domo shares (DOMO) slide 6.2% after Citizens
downgraded the software company by two notches to market underperform from market outperform. Instacart (CART) climbed 13% as the grocery-delivery company forecast adjusted Ebitda for the first quarter which beat. Pinterest shares (PINS) tumbled 21% after
the social media company’s first-quarter forecast was weaker than expected. Roku shares (ROKU) jump 16% after the streaming-video platform company’s fourth-quarter results beat expectations. Tri Pointe Homes shares (TPH) rose 27% after Sumitomo Forestry says
it will acquire the company for around $4.28 billion. Wendy’s shares (WEN) fall 7% after it forecast adjusted Ebitda for 2026; the guidance missed estimates. Wynn Resorts (WYNN) falls 3% after it missed fourth-quarter earnings per share estimates.

• TPH US (+27%): Sumitomo Forestry says it will acquire the company for about $4.28 billion.
• RIVN US (+19%): Issued a 2026 delivery outlook range with a midpoint above analyst estimates.
• CART US (+13%): Forecast adjusted Ebitda for the first quarter that beat estimates.
• ANET US (+14%): Its first-quarter revenue forecast exceeded estimates.
• AMAT US (+11%): First-quarter results and outlook beat expectations
• BROS US (+13%): Adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter surpassed Wall Street estimates.
• ROKU US (+12%): Fourth-quarter results beat expectations and its outlooks for 1Q and the full year are better than expected.
• ABNB US (+6%): First-quarter revenue forecast exceeded the average analyst estimate.
• FLO US (-2.8%): Forecast for FY adjusted EPS missed the average analyst estimate.
• WYNN US (-3.1%): Adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter missed the average analyst estimate.
• PINS US (-17%): Forecasts revenue for 1Q missed the average analyst estimate.
• EXPE US (-4.7%): AI worries outweigh solid guidance

XLK/SPY: holding below the 200dma in the pair

European gauges drift lower with earnings in focus; tech outperforms as AI-related selling eased, while basic resources lagged on reports of Trump
scaling back some steel/aluminum tariffs. SSAB shares slide as much as 8.9%, leading a drop in European miners. Safran shares rise over 8% to a record high, after the French engine manufacturer improved its guidance for 2026 and lifted its outlook for 2028.
Kalmar jumped as much as 8.2% before paring gains, after releasing its fourth-quarter results and announcing a “major order” from Maher Terminals for 30 hybrid straddle carriers. Capgemini shares rose more than 5% after its CEO said the French IT company is
“clearly pivoting” to facilitate artificial intelligence adoption. L’Oréal SA shares fell after the French beauty group posted disappointing sales growth in the fourth quarter, held back by its luxury division. Norsk Hydro shares fall as much 6.6% as analysts
called the company’s guidance weak. Stoxx 600 -0.4%, DAX ~flat, CAC -0.4%, FTSE 100 ~flat. Defense +3.5%, Technology +0.8%, Healthcare +0.5%. Banks -2.8%, Basic Resources -2.2%. 

Shares in Asia fell as the region’s AI-driven rally took a breather after US tech shares tumbled overnight. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.4%, snapping five days
of gains. Still, the gauge is on track for its best week since September 2024, after hitting fresh records every day this week through Thursday. Hong Kong indexes were the biggest regional losers for a second straight day, with Hang Seng down as much as 2%.
Chinese shares dropped as investors trimmed risks before the Lunar New Year holidays on the mainland and in Hong Kong. Indian IT stocks saw their worst week in over 10 months as AI-disruption fears extended a rout that has wiped out ~$50 billion in sector
market cap so far in February. Equity markets in mainland China and Taiwan will remain shut all of next week, while Hong Kong is closed for three of the days. Hang Seng Index -1.7%, Topix -1.6%, Singapore -1.6%, ASX 200 -1.4%, Philippines -1.3%, CSI 300 -1.25%,
Sensex -1.25%, Indonesia -0.6%, Kospi -0.3%. Vietnam +0.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are little changed in early US session, holding most of Thursday’s curve-flattening gains as focus shifts to January US CPI report. Yields remain within
1bp of Thursday’s closing levels, the 10-year near 4.11%: 2s10s spread is +1bp near 65bp, about 6bp flatter on the week. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Three offerings totaling $4.35 billion were priced Thursday with issuers paying about 24bp in new
issue concessions on deals that were 3.4 times covered. Weekly supply exceeds $40 billion, in line with expectations, and monthly volume has just surpassed the $100b threshold.

METALS: 

Gold recovered some of its prior-session sharp losses, as dip-buyers stepped in to purchase the metal in anticipation of upcoming key US inflation data. The selloff
in US stocks spilled into precious metals as some investors with broad holdings were forced to sell commodities to cover margin calls, according to analysts. Spot gold climbs to around $4,970 an ounce and silver jumps more than 1%. LME aluminum falls amid
prospect of some tariff relief by the US. Chinese markets are closed next week for the Lunar New Year holiday. Demand for precious metals in the country has been frenetic in recent months, helping to power the broader rally. Spot gold +0.9%, Silver +3.4%,
Copper futures -1%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil slipped and is on track for its first back-to-back weekly drop of the year on a risk-off tone in wider markets, concerns about a global crude glut, and the prospect
of drawn out US-Iran nuclear talks. Some producers within OPEC+ see scope for output increases to resume in April and believe concerns of a glut in oil markets are overblown, delegates said. The group’s ultimate decision may depend on whether Trump launches
military action against or reaches a nuclear deal with OPEC member Iran. Indian refiner Reliance Industries has received a general license from the US government that will allow it to purchase Venezuelan oil directly, according to sources. Venezuela plans
to grant more oil-production land to Chevron and Spain’s Repsol SA as the Trump administration pushes for private companies to rebuild the nation’s energy sector. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the US would release additional licenses “soon.”  WTI -0.6%,
Brent -0.5%, US Nat Gas -2.1%, RBOB -0.6%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar edges higher, headed for its first daily gain in five as investors trimmed risk exposure ahead of US CPI data. The yen is rising for
the first time in four days; Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura said that the last element for achieving the bank’s 2% inflation target is wage increases and there is a good chance that it can be confirmed around this spring. A Kremlin memo outlines proposals
for Russia to rejoin the dollar system as part of a broader economic partnership with a potential Trump administration, Bloomberg reports. The document suggests cooperation on fossil fuels, natural gas, offshore oil, critical materials, and US corporate gains,
tied to a peace deal in Ukraine. Returning to the dollar would reverse Russia’s recent push for alternatives and could reshape global finance. Western officials doubt Putin would act against China’s interests, and it’s unclear if the proposals have been formally
presented to the US. US$ Index +0.15%, GBPUSD -0.1%, EURUSD -0.1%, USDJPY +0.35%, AUDUSD -0.55%, NZDUSD -0.2%, USDCHF -0.1%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK +0.35%, USDNOK +0.1%.

Spot Bitcoin +1.7%, Spot Ethereum +1.8%.  Coinbase Global showed how quickly a cooling crypto market can pressure even one of the industry’s most diversified exchanges.
Revenue in the fourth quarter tumbled a more-than-estimated 20% to $1.8 billion as falling token prices drained trading activity across digital assets.

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Advantage Energy Ltd (AAV CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank
• Airbnb (ABNB) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $154
• Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
• Allied Properties REIT (AP-U CN) Raised to Hold at Desjardins; PT C$9.50
• Applied Materials (AMAT) Raised to Outperform at KGI Securities
• Raised to Buy at Summit Insights
• Church & Dwight (CHD) Raised to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn
• Cloudflare (NET) Raised to Buy at DZ Bank; PT $215
• CrowdStrike (CRWD) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $446
• International Flavors (IFF) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer
• Medpace Holdings (MEDP) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $560
• Merck & Co (MRK) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $150
• Mitek (MITK) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $15
• National Bank of Canada (NA CN) Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT C$189
• Neptune Insurance (NP) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $20
• Rivian (RIVN) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $23
• Raised to Neutral at UBS; PT $16
• Roku (ROKU) Raised to Buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc; PT $118
• SPX Technologies (SPXC) Raised to Buy at BofA
• Synchrony Financial (SYF) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $83
• Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer
• Wells Fargo (WFC) Raised to Neutral at Baird; PT $85
• Williams Cos (WMB) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $84
• Xcel Energy (XEL) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $89
• Downgrades
• Afya (AFYA) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $16
• Copa Holdings (CPA) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $151
• Dollar Tree (DLTR) Cut to Underperform at BMO; PT $95
• Domo (DOMO) Cut to Market Underperform at Citizens; PT $3.50
• Edison International (EIX) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $78
• Evergy (EVRG) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $88
• Fortune Brands (FBIN) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $55
• Hercules Capital (HTGC) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $17.50
• Latam Airlines (LTM CI) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $64.10
• Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $20
• Pinterest (PINS) Cut to Hold at Loop Capital; PT $18
• Cut to Neutral at Citi
• Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $20
• Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $25
• Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $20
• TD Bank (TD CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$136
• Upstart (UPST) Cut to Market Underperform at Citizens; PT $20
• US Foods Holding (USFD) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $103
• Webster Financial (WBS) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $75
• Initiations
• AMD (AMD) Rated New Neutral at DA Davidson
• Broadcom (AVGO) Rated New Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $335
• Climb Bio Inc (CLYM) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $23
• Intel (INTC) Rated New Neutral at DA Davidson
• Maritime Launch Services Inc (MAXQ CN) Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada
• Super Group (SGHC) Rated New Sell at Spruce Point Capital
• Tapestry (TPR) Rated New Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $176
• TSMC (2330 TT) ADRs Rated New Buy at DA Davidson

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke