Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Durable Goods Orders, Cap Goods, Housing Starts, Building Permits, New York Fed Services
Business Activity; 9:15ET Industrial Production, Mfg Production, Capacity Utilization; 1:00ET Fed’s Bowman speaks, 20-year bond auction; 2:00ET FOMC Meeting Minutes; 4:00ET TIC Flows

Highlights and News:  

• Japan, US reach $36 billion of gas, mineral deals in Trump pact
• The first full-scale state investigation into Jeffrey Epstein’s Zorro Ranch begins today
• The US and Iran made progress in nuclear talks in Geneva – US official
• Meta Deepens Nvidia Ties With Pact for ‘Millions’ of Chips
• Berkshire Hathaway slashed its stake in Amazon by more than 75% in Q4
• Zelenskiy accused Russia of attempting to prolong peace talks 
• Construction work on a $16 billion rail tunnel under the Hudson River will restart as soon as next week

Global stocks edge higher as sentiment appears to be stabilizing after recent AI-driven swings with much of Asia offline due to the Lunar New Year holiday. Key focuses
include upcoming Fed minutes for rate clues and ongoing assessments of global events like US efforts on Iran and Ukraine. An unexpected early halt to peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in Geneva—wrapping up in just two hours on Wednesday—helped sustain
a risk premium on oil. Russia’s chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky said the talks had been difficult but business-like, and that a new round of talks would be held soon. According to Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency, Iran and Russia are set to hold joint
naval drills in the Sea of Oman and the northern Indian Ocean on Thursday, coming just days after the Revolutionary Guards carried out military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. Political consultancy Eurasia Group said in a Tuesday note to clients that it
thinks there is a 65% probability of US military strikes against Iran by the end of April. Meanwhile, Tokyo plans to invest $36 billion in US oil, gas and critical mineral projects, the first tranche of the $550 billion commitment.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures advanced as dip-buying emerged, easing some of the sharp volatility driven by artificial intelligence anxieties. Meta Platforms has agreed to deploy “millions” of Nvidia
Corp. processors over the next few years, tightening its relationship with Nvidia in the artificial intelligence industry. Meta, which accounts for about 9% of Nvidia’s revenue, is committing to use more AI processors and networking equipment from the supplier,
according to a statement Tuesday. Shares of Nvidia and Meta both rose about 1% in late trading after the agreement was announced. Advanced Micro Devices, Nvidia’s rival in AI processors, fell around 3%. Palo Alto Networks shares fell 8% in extended trading,
after the security software company gave a forecast for adjusted earnings that was weaker than expected. Markets could face more near-term volatility because of concerns about AI disruption and capex, “weak seasonals and crowded momentum trades,” according
to strategists at Morgan Stanley. In other corporate news, Berkshire Hathaway slashed its stake in Amazon.com by more than 75% in the fourth quarter, while building a stake in the New York Times Co.

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.5%, Russell 2000 +0.05%, DJI +0.2%

In pre-market trading, Nvidia (NVDA) rises 1.9% after Meta Platforms agreed to deploy “millions” of its processors over the next few years. Applied Digital (APLD) falls
8% after Nvidia reported exiting its stake in a 13F filing. Axcelis Technologies (ACLS) declines 13% after the semiconductor manufacturing company gave a first-quarter forecast that is weaker than expected. Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) climbs 6% after the
electronic design automation software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations. Caesars Entertainment (CZR) rises 5% after the casino operator reported same store adj. Ebitda for the fourth quarter that beat. Global-e Online (GLBE) rises
18% after the application software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a positive forecast. Mister Car Wash (MCW) climbs 17% after agreeing to be taken private by Leonard Green & Partners at $7 per share in cash. New York
Times Co. (NYT) rises 3% after Berkshire Hathaway built a stake in the publisher. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) tumbles 7% after the security software company gave a forecast for adjusted earnings that was weaker than expected. Pitney Bowes Inc. (PBI) climbs 7%
after the shipping and mailing software firm posted fourth-quarter earnings that topped expectations. Rush Street (RSI) rises 18% after the gaming company reported revenue for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Sandisk (SNDK) falls
over 3% as Western Digital is selling a stake in the flash-memory unit that it spun off. SimilarWeb (SMWB) falls 23% after the web services company’s fourth-quarter results missed expectations. Vita Coco (COCO) rises 6% after the beverage firm provided a strong
forecast for 2026 net sales.

European gauges rise following a slate of positive earnings from companies including BAE Systems Plc and Puig Brands SA. Europe’s Stoxx 600 hit
a record high, with miners and defense sectors leading gains while chemicals underperform as a disappointing report from IMCD weighs on the sector. BAE shares gain as much as 6.3% after full-year results analysts called solid and where cash flow stood out.
Puig shares rose as much as 6.6%, before paring gains, as the Spanish company’s full-year revenue beat estimates. Mediobanca shares rise as much as 9% after Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena’s board approved a plan to pursue delisting the investment bank. Glencore
shares rally as much as 3.5% in London after the miner reported adjusted Ebitda for the 2025 full year that beat estimates. Bayer slides over 11%, reversing Tuesday’s gain following the German conglomerate’s class-action settlement plan in relation to the
Roundup weedkiller litigation. Resurgent optimism about Europe and the benefits of German stimulus is driving investment flows into the region’s equity markets and fueling an outperformance that is expected to last, according to the latest BofA survey. Stoxx
600 +0.9%, DAX +0.8%, CAC +0.5%, FTSE 100 +1.1%. Energy +2.2%, Defense +2.2%, Basic Resources +2.2%, Banks +1.8%, Tech +1.4%. Chemicals -1.7%, Luxury -0.9%.

Shares in Asia advanced, led by a rebound in Japan, as many markets around the region remain shut for Lunar New Year holidays. Japanese stocks rally after strong trade
data showed exports rose at the fastest clip in more than three years as demand for chips related to artificial intelligence offset sluggish car shipments to the US. The value of overall exports gained 16.8% in January from a year earlier, led by a 51.7% jump
in semiconductor exports destined for China. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5%, snapping a three-day losing streak, as the announcement of Japan’s $36 billion investment in US projects as part of a trade deal bolstered optimism. Indian benchmarks shook
off a slow start and closed in positive territory, with financial and metal shares driving the rally while persistent AI-related doubts kept IT names under pressure and limited wider upside. Steel stocks advanced after media reports of US Trade Representative
Jamieson Greer indicating openness to simplifying steel tariffs amid pushback from the sector. Markets in South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia reopen Thursday, while trading resumes Friday in Hong Kong. Topix +1.2%, Indonesia +1.2%, ASX 200 +0.5%, Thailand
+0.5%, Philippines +0.4%, Sensex +0.3%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold small losses across the curve, with the 10-year yield climbing one basis point to 4.07%. The belly is higher by 1bp-2bp with longer maturities little
changed, flattening the curve. 2s10s curve +0.5bp; 5s30s -2.5bps. Focal points of today’s session include 20-year bond new-issue auction and release of minutes of Fed’s January policy meeting. A $9 billion 30-year TIPS new-issue auction is ahead Thursday.
IG corporate new-issue calendar is blank so far; however at least three borrowers stood down Tuesday and plan to return.

METALS: 

Gold climbed back above $4,940 an ounce as precious metals rebounded after a two-day drop, with traders looking ahead to the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s
recent meeting. Spot gold is near the highs of the day in thin trading, with much of Asia offline due to the Lunar New Year holiday. Fed Governor Michael Barr said on Tuesday rates should remain steady “for some time” until officials see more evidence that
inflation is heading toward the central bank’s 2% goal. Fed Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee, meanwhile, said there was potential for more cuts this year if inflation continued on its path toward that target. Spot gold +1.4%, Silver +3.1%, Copper
futures +1.2%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil bounces back from Tuesday’s drop as traders weighed fresh US efforts to broker agreements on Tehran’s nuclear program and the ongoing Ukraine war. Tehran said
it reached a “general agreement” with Washington on the terms of a potential deal, and a US official said Iranian negotiators would return to Geneva with a new proposal in two weeks. Keeping a risk premium on prices was the abrupt end of peace talks between
Ukraine and Russia in Geneva on Wednesday after only two hours. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said that the discussions had been difficult and accused Russia of deliberately seeking to delay progress toward a deal to end the four-year-old war. Russian media
reported that talks were over and that a new round would take place soon. In politics, the US renewed threats to quit the IEA unless the organization scales back climate advocacy and focuses on energy security. WTI +2.6%, Brent +2.6%, US Nat Gas -1.2%, RBOB
+2%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is mixed versus currency majors with kiwi dollar the biggest loser following RBNZ’s dovish hold. New Zealand’s central bank held interest
rates at the lowest level in 3-1/2 years and said it expects them to stay there while the economy regathers momentum. New Zealand 2-year yield falls 10 bps and NZD 2-yr swap rate drops below 3% as traders push back rate hike expectations. The euro held its
modest loss after the Financial Times reported that Christine Lagarde is expected to leave the European Central Bank before her eight-year term as president expires in October 2027. The pound steadied after UK CPI rose 3% in January from a year earlier, down
from 3.4% the previous month. US$ Index +0.05%, GBPUSD +0.05%, EURUSD -0.1%, USDJPY +0.25%, AUDUSD -0.25%, NZDUSD -0.8%, USDCHF +0.05%, USDCAD +0.05%, USDSEK -0.05%, USDNOK -0.6%.

Spot Bitcoin %, Spot Ethereum %. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• BioAge Labs (BIOA) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $62
• Cadence Design (CDNS) Raised to Buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc
• Central Puerto (CEPU AR) ADRs Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
• Icon (ICLR) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $120
• Itron (ITRI) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $128
• Magna Intl (MG CN) Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT C$103.73
• Medpace Holdings (MEDP) Raised to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $419
• Palantir (PLTR) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $195
• Rush Street (RSI) Raised to Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $24
• Stubhub (STUB) Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT $9
• ZIM Integrated Shipping (ZIM) Raised to Buy at Fearnley; PT $35
• Downgrades
• AtriCure (ATRC) Cut to Market Perform at Oppenheimer
• Capstone Copper (CS CN) Cut to Hold at Desjardins; PT C$16
• CNH Industrial (CNH) Cut to Underperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT $10.50
• Crocs (CROX) Cut to Sell at Williams Trading; PT $84
• Dye & Durham (DND CN) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James; PT C$5
• Gemini Space Station (GEMI) Cut to Neutral at Cantor; PT $8
• General Mills (GIS) Cut to Hold at CFRA
• Genuine Parts (GPC) Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $127
• iA Financial (IAG CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT C$188
• Ihs Holding (IHS) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $8.50
• Knife River Corp (KNF) Cut to Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $81
• LuxExperience (LUXE) ADRs Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan
• Masimo (MASI) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
• SimilarWeb (SMWB) Cut to Market Perform at Northland; PT $5
• Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• Toro (TTC) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Workday (WDAY) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• Initiations
• AeroVironment (AVAV) Rated New Neutral at UBS; PT $259
• Bristow Group (VTOL) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $60
• Costco (COST) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• CSW Industrials (CSW) Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $378
• Evolution Metals & Technologies (EMAT) Rated New Buy at Clear Street
• Kratos (KTOS) Rated New Neutral at UBS; PT $79
• Mirum Pharma (MIRM) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $130
• Modine (MOD) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $263
• Nebius Group (NBIS) Rated New Buy at Compass Point

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke