Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  10:40ET Fed’s Barkin speaks; 11:00ET Fed’s Schmid speaks; 11:30ET $28B 2-year FRN reopening;
1:00ET $70B 5-year note auction; 1:20ET Fed’s Musalem speaks

Highlights and News:  

• Trump Accuses Iran of Reviving Nuclear Program in State of the Union address
• ~49% of US residents struggle to pay rent or mortgages,
  Gen Z 67%, according to a Redfin survey
• Anthropic Drops Key Safety Pledge Amid Pressure; Hegseth gave Anthropic until Friday to lift all restrictions on how military uses Claude
• US deploying 12 stealth F-22 fighter jets to Israel, adding even more assets to the region
• US Trade Representative Greer: There will be hearings and consultations with trading partners
• Some Importers are Seeking Tariff Refunds From the Government
• Zelenskiy says Ukraine, US negotiators to meet Feb. 26

Global stock markets are showing mostly positive momentum, driven by a rebound in tech and AI-related optimism after recent volatility, easing some concerns over
AI disruption fears. Tech investors across the globe will be watching Nvidia’s quarterly earnings release today, as the AI chip leader faces a pivotal report that could signal whether the explosive AI spending surge continues. International equity funds attracted
+$17 billion in net inflows last week, the 2nd-highest on record, led by South Korea and then Japan. Investors poured more than $18 billion into Korean equities over the last 6 weeks, the most on record. In geopolitics, Zelenskiy says Ukraine, US negotiators
to meet tomorrow to discuss the so-called prosperity package. President Trump claimed that Iran is working to reconstitute its nuclear program while negotiating with Washington, adding to speculation that he’s preparing for a fresh round of military strikes. 
Iranian officials say their nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, stating that Iran will “under no circumstances ever develop a nuclear weapon”.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures edge higher as traders await Nvidia’s earnings to see whether the chipmaker can regain its place as the artificial-intelligence trade’s main driver. Goldman Sachs strategists
note that worries over AI-driven disruption will likely persist in the short term, as equity investors seek concrete signs of either corporate resilience or sufficiently depressed valuations before returning in force. Goldman strategists say there is a “fine
line” between being viewed as an AI revenue winner or suffering from disruption fears. Anthropic said it’s loosening its hallmark safety pledge. The move coincides with a Pentagon threat to invoke a Cold War-era law unless Anthropic allows unrestricted use
of its technology by Friday. FHFA’s Bill Pulte said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac IPOs are “very likely” this year, valuing them at up to $700 billion. Warner Bros. said Paramount’s sweetened bid of $31 per share could top its existing Netflix deal.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.35%, Nasdaq +0.45%, Russell 2000 +0.65%, DJI +0.3%

In pre-market trading, Lithium stocks are rising after Zimbabwe suspended exports of lithium concentrates and raw minerals. AbCellera Biologics (ABCL) rises 8% after
the drug developer reported total revenue for the fourth quarter that was ahead of the average analyst estimate. Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) falls 21% after the maker of thermal insulation used in electric vehicles reported loss per share for the fourth quarter
that’s wider than expected. Axon (AXON) rises 15% after the Taser maker reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that beat. Camping World (CWH) slides 12% after the retailer of recreational vehicles reported a larger-than-expected adjusted
Ebitda loss for the fourth quarter. Cava Group (CAVA) climbs 11% after the fast-casual chain’s restaurant comp sales forecast for 2026 came in above estimates. Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) rises 16% as profit and revenue increased more than estimated
while the amount of its USDC stablecoin in circulation jumped 72%. First Solar (FSLR) slides 16% after the maker of electricity-producing solar modules reported a 2026 net sales forecast which missed. HP Inc. (HPQ) falls 5% after providing a profit outlook
for the current quarter that may fall short of estimates and said full-year earnings will likely hit the lower end of a previously forecast range. Lowe’s Cos. (LOW) slips 3% after forecasting sales guidance for the full year that fell short of expectations.
MercadoLibre (MELI) falls 5% after the online marketplace for Latin America reported its fourth-quarter results. Oddity Tech (ODD) slumps 34% after the direct-to-consumer beauty and wellness company said it expects its revenue for the first quarter of 2026
to decline 30% year-over-year. Workday (WDAY) declines 9% after giving a subscription revenue guidance that missed expectations, adding to investor concerns that a rise of AI automation tools is disrupting traditional software vendors.

IGV/SMH: Tech-software sector has been really underperforming Semiconductor sector since the April lows

Software stocks have become the most sold theme year-to-date. Strong gains in energy, capital goods, materials, and household goods have been countered
only by a big drop in the software sector.

European gauges are higher across the board with the FTSE 100 outperforming after a slew of positive earnings in the UK. Mining and banking shares
lead gains, while food & beverage underperform. HSBC shares advanced as much as 6.1% in London to a fresh high after the lender reported strong earnings and guidance. Relx shares rise as much as 5.3% after the professional publisher says it’s integrating an
Anthropic automation tool into its legal research platform. Anglo American rallied over 4% in London after DZ Bank upgraded the miner to buy from hold, saying the merger with Teck Resources is going as planned. Lion Finance Group (BGEO LN) shares climb as
much as 9.8% to an all-time high, after the Georgian lender reported strong fourth-quarter results. St James’s Place (STJ LN) climbed as much as 7.3% after a beat. Diageo (DGE LN) shares fell over 8% after the spirits giant (Guinness, Johnnie Walker) slashed
its sales outlook due to ongoing weakness in the crucial US market and announced a dividend cut. Haleon (HLN LN) fell as much as 5.6% after the consumer healthcare firm reported a miss. Stoxx 600 +0.6%, DAX +0.4%, CAC +0.4%, FTSE 100 +1%. Basic Resources +3.3%,
Banks +1.6%, Energy +1.3%. Food & Bev -1.6%, Personal Goods -0.6%.

Shares in Asia rose for a third straight day, led by tech stocks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.1% to remain near record highs, with chipmakers TSMC and Samsung
continuing to drive advances. South Korea and Japan stocks hit record highs after a tech-driven rally on Wall Street that was fueled by easing concerns around artificial intelligence-led disruption to select industries. The region’s tech firms were further
supported by comments from Anthropic PBC that it plans to build partnerships with existing businesses. Chinese property stocks rose as Shanghai city eases home buying rules. Nikkei 225 +2.2%, Taiwan +2%, Kospi +1.9%, Thailand +1.7%, ASX 200 +1.2%, Philippines
+1.1%, Hang Seng Index +0.7%, CSI 300 +0.6%, Indonesia +0.5%, Sensex +0.05%. Singapore -0.25%, Vietnam -0.4%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

US yields are up 2-3bps across the curve and the curve is just slightly flatter, as investors set up for 5-year note auction. $70 billion 5-year note auction follows
solid results for Tuesday’s 2-year. WI 5-year yield near 3.618% is ~20.5bp richer than last month’s auction, which tailed by 0.3bp.

METALS: 

Gold rose and silver surged as traders weighed uncertainty around US import tariffs and frictions in the Middle East. Spot gold climbed as much as 1.3%, clawing back
losses from a 1.6% decline in the previous session. Spot silver jumps over 4% to back above $90 an ounce. A lack of clarity over US trade policy has supported the metal in recent sessions, as well as tensions over an American military buildup ahead of the
next round of nuclear talks with Iran this week.  Spot gold +0.9%, Silver +4.3%, Copper futures +0.7%.   

ENERGY:   

Crude oil edges higher while traders weighed the potential for a nuclear accord between Washington and Tehran before Thursday’s talks; amid ongoing unease from the
biggest US military build-up in the Middle East since the second Gulf war in 2003. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA Director John Ratcliffe briefed senior lawmakers about Iran on Tuesday as the military deployment fueled speculation of an attack. If
President Trump pulls the trigger on an attack against Iran, odds are that the Islamic Republic will play a powerful card: closing the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway carries 20% of global oil, and no alternative routes can meaningfully replace those flows.
Iran has been loading oil onto tankers at a rapid pace, a potential sign of preparations in case of an attack by the US. WTI +0.75%, Brent +0.9%, US Nat Gas +1.4%, RBOB +0.8%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, yen weakness helped the US$ Index shrug off initial downside. The dollar initially slipped as President Trump reiterated his resolve to impose
trade tariffs during his State of the Union address. The yen fell as traders pared bets on Bank of Japan interest rate hikes. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government nominated two new Bank of Japan policy board members who are seen as dovish. The Australian
dollar outperformed after January inflation beat estimates. The economy is maybe a little tighter than we thought, RBA Governor Michele Bullock said. US$ Index +0.05%, GBPUSD +0.25%, EURUSD +0.1%, USDJPY +0.5%, AUDUSD +0.5%, NZDUSD +0.1%, USDCHF +0.05%, USDCAD
-0.05%, USDSEK +0.05%, USDNOK +0.1%.

Spot Bitcoin +3.2%, Spot Ethereum +5.5%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Array (ARRY) Raised to Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $19
• Enphase Energy (ENPH) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $57
• IBM (IBM) Raised to Neutral at UBS; PT $236
• Iovance Biotherapeutics (IOVA) Raised to Market Outperform at Citizens
• Lincoln National (LNC) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $48
• Neptune Insurance (NP) Raised to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $24
• Oracle (ORCL) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $185
• Principal Financial (PFG) Raised to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo
• Shoals Technologies (SHLS) Raised to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $9
• Downgrades
• EOG Resources (EOG) Cut to Sector Perform at Peters & Co; PT $130
• Evolent (EVH) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• First Solar (FSLR) Cut to Neutral at Baird
• Grocery Outlet (GO) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $10.50
• Kinsale Capital (KNSL) Cut to Underperform at BMO; PT $348
• Kroger (KR) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $68
• Meren Energy (MER CN) Cut to Neutral at SB1 Markets; PT C$2.58
• Prudential Financial (PRU) Cut to Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $103
• Ryan Specialty (RYAN) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $43
• Thermon (THR) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• Workday (WDAY) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $155
• Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $160
• Initiations
• AbbVie (ABBV) Rated New Outperform at RBC
• Alumis (ALMS) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $44
• Amaroq (AMRQ CN) Rated New Buy at Cavendish; PT C$3.77
• Angel Studios (ANGX) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $7
• Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $6.50
• Aura Minerals (ORA CN) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $105
• Baker Hughes (BKR) Reinstated Buy at Johnson Rice; PT $68
• Baldwin Insurance (BWIN) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $37
• BioAge Labs (BIOA) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $60
• Bristol Myers (BMY) Rated New Sector Perform at RBC
• Burke & Herbert Financial Services (BHRB) US Reinstated Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $75
• CB Financial Services (CBFV) Reinstated Buy at DA Davidson; PT $43
• Century Therapeutics (IPSC) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen
• Ceva (CEVA) Rated New Buy at UBS; PT $27
• Community Financial System (CBU) Reinstated Neutral at DA Davidson
• Eagle Financial Services (EFSI) Reinstated Neutral at DA Davidson
• Eli Lilly (LLY) Rated New Outperform at RBC
• First Bank/Hamilton NJ (FRBA) Reinstated Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $18
• Fulton Financial (FULT) Reinstated Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $24
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $25
• Live Nation (LYV) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $204
• Merck & Co (MRK) Rated New Outperform at RBC
• NBT Bancorp (NBTB) Reinstated Buy at DA Davidson; PT $54
• Ovintiv (OVV) Resumed Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $58
• Palisade Bio Inc (PALI) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $5
• PepGen (PEPG) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $15
• Pfizer (PFE) Rated New Underperform at RBC
• Provident Financial (PFS) Reinstated Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $25
• Q32 Bio Inc (QTTB) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $13
• S&T Bancorp (STBA) Reinstated Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $47
• WesBanco (WSBC) Reinstated Buy at DA Davidson; PT $44
• WSFS Financial (WSFS) Reinstated Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $74

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke