Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Initial Jobless Claims; 8:45ET Fed’s Miran speaks; 10:00ET Fed’s Bowman speaks; 11:00ET
Kansas City Fed Services Activity; 1:00ET 7-Year Note Auction; 2:30ET Fed’s Goolsbee speaks

Highlights and News:  

• Hillary Clinton scheduled to testify via a closed-door deposition to House Oversight Committee today
• Iran and US Start Third Round of Nuclear Talks, Iran Team has ‘Reasonable Amount of Flexibility’
  
• US-Iran nuclear talks have been suspended after about 4 hours, and will continue after the delegations have consulted with their superiors
• Greer said the administration is seeking “continuity” with nations that struck trade deals
• US vowed to maintain high tariffs on China before Trump visits Beijing
  
• World’s Top Money Managers Favor Emerging Markets, Citi Says
• US Senators to Reintroduce AI Innovation Bill Today
• CEO of the World Economic Forum, has resigned after an investigation into his relationship with Epstein

Global stocks steadied as the US and Iranian teams are holding their third round of indirect nuclear discussions in Geneva. Iran has expressed a fair amount of negotiating
flexibility, even as President Trump ramps up pressure with threats of harsh repercussions if the parties fail to reach an accord on constraining Iran’s nuclear activities. The US has imposed new sanctions on over 30 entities supporting Iranian oil and weapons
sales, ramping up of pressure on Tehran before talks. In a statement posted on X, Oman’s Foreign Ministry said Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi, who is mediating between the two parties and met with the Iranian and US delegations, sensed an “unprecedented openness
from both sides to new and creative ideas and solutions.” Elsewhere, South Korea’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.5% and signaled that it doesn’t expect to change policy over the next six months. President Trump will sign a directive
raising his global tariff to 15% “where appropriate”, according to US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Greer said the administration is seeking “continuity” with nations that struck trade deals and that the changes would not result in a larger cumulative
rate for certain economies with trade agreements. The US vowed to maintain high tariffs on China, with Greer saying the tariffs will remain at a range of 35% to 50%.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are mixed in muted trading as Nvidia’s strong earnings beat and upbeat guidance failed to fully ease investor concerns over an overheated AI sector, compounded by Salesforce’s
disappointing revenue outlook that heightened fears of AI-driven disruption. Snowflake also provided lukewarm sales guidance to an already-nervous market. President Trump is set to sign a directive in the coming days that will increase his global tariff rate
to 15% “where appropriate,” while emphasizing the pursuit of “continuity” with countries that have already negotiated trade agreements with the US. The US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva have been suspended after about 4 hours and will continue later tonight
after the delegations have consulted with their superiors.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.01%, Russell 2000 +0.25%, DJI +0.2%. ES looking more positive as it climbs above the top of the cloud.  

In pre-market trading, Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) rises 1.3% after its latest sales forecast drew a muted response from investors. Array (ARRY) drops 22% after the renewable
energy company’s 2026 adjusted Ebitda guidance missed. C3.ai (AI) slumps 25% after the AI company cut its revenue guidance for the full year. Celsius Holdings (CELH) rises 12% after posting sales which more than doubled from a year earlier following its acquisition
of Alani Nu. FTAI Aviation (FTAI) falls 4% after the aerospace company reported total revenue for the fourth quarter that missed. GoodRx Holdings (GDRX) falls 15% after the health-care platform forecast revenue for 2026 that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.
IonQ (IONQ) rises 13% after the quantum computing company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations. Janus Henderson Group (JHG) climbs 6% after Victory Capital offered to acquire the company for $57.04 per share. Krispy Kreme Inc. (DNUT) climbs
15% as the company expects leverage to decline further this year as it advances its turnaround plan. Nutanix (NTNX) rises 18% after Advanced Micro Devices said it will buy $150 million in the software company’s stock as part of a new partnership.  Papa John’s
(PZZA) falls 5% after the pizza chain reported weaker-than-expected sales results. PROCEPT BioRobotics (PRCT) sinks 24% after the medical equipment maker forecast revenue for 2026 that fell short. Salesforce Inc. (CRM) falls 3% after the company gave a lukewarm
outlook. Trade Desk (TTD) declines 14% after the advertising technology company gave a first-quarter forecast that was weaker than expected.

European gauges move higher with financial services and travel & leisure shares leading gains, while mining stocks underperform. The Stoxx 600
index hits a new record high, driven by upbeat corporate earnings from the likes of Schneider and Indra, while investors mulled the outlook for artificial intelligence following chip-leader Nvidia’s strong forecasts. Indra soars over 20% after the Spanish
defense company’s fourth-quarter results “beat across the board.” Rolls-Royce shares hit a record high after the UK-based engine maker said it was planning a major share buyback and raised its mid-term earnings targets. Puma gained as much as 9.1%, before
paring gains after the German apparel retailer posted results. Syensqo fell by a record 26% after the chemicals maker reported fourth-quarter earnings that missed estimates with an outlook that points to more struggles. Hikma Pharmaceuticals sinks as much
as 18% after the drugmaker’s 2026 profit guidance came in below expectations. Stoxx 600 +0.2%, DAX +0.4%, CAC +0.9%, FTSE 100 +0.2%. Financial Services +1.6%, Travel & Leisure +1.3%, Industrial Goods +1.2%. Basic Resources -2.3%, Telecom -0.7%. 

Shares in Asia extended gains to a fourth-straight day as South Korean chipmakers extended their rally, offsetting investor caution in the wake of Nvidia’s results.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.8%, with Samsung and SK Hynix among the biggest boosts. South Korea’s Kospi index jumped as much as 3.8% closing at an all-time high. While the Korean memory makers gained, most Asian chip-related stocks slipped. Beyond
tech, Asian markets largely shrugged off a US threat to raise global tariffs to 15% “where appropriate” in the coming days. Hang Seng declined as Chinese tech shares fell. Asian lithium shares follow North American peers higher after Zimbabwe suspended exports
of the critical mineral. Kospi +3.7, Thailand +1.2%, Vietnam +1%, Topix +1%, ASX 200 +0.5%, Philippines +0.1%. Sensex -0.05%, CSI 300 -0.2%, Singapore -0.9%, Indonesia -1%, Hang Seng Index -1.4%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields are within 1bp of Wednesday’s closing levels as US trading day begins. US session also includes weekly jobless claims data and 7-year note auction.
US 10-year yield is near 4.04%, hovering just above the key 200-week moving average. Curve spreads are flat with 2s10s holding above its 200-day moving average. This week’s Treasury auctions conclude with $44 billion 7-year notes; Wednesday’s 5-year sale tailed
by 0.7bp.

METALS: 

Gold steadied and silver fell as traders weighed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the impact of US tariffs on global trade. The Trump administration pushed
ahead with moves to preserve his tariff agenda, adding tension to already strained relationships with trading partners. Spot gold trades near $5,170 and ounce, having gained nearly 6% over the last six sessions, as a buildup of US troops in the Middle East
kept global markets on edge. Cuban forces killed four people who had opened fire from a speedboat with Florida tags, an incident with the potential to escalate a tense standoff with the US. Spot gold +0.1%, Silver -2.8%, Copper futures -0.2%. 

ENERGY:   

Crude oil moves lower as nuclear talks take place between the US and Iran, amid lingering worries over a possible regional conflict that could disrupt future supplies.
Iran has ramped up crude loadings to the highest since 2018, and Iranian oil on the water is at a record high. Traders are also focused on the forthcoming OPEC+ discussions regarding April supply quotas, amid expectations from certain delegates that the alliance
could approve a modest production increase. Brent trades below $70 a barrel following a two-day decline, while WTI was near $64. Goldman Sachs says there’s a $5-$6/bbl risk premium over a potential US attack on Iran already in oil prices. Goldman also said
several new projects in Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Nigeria, Uganda and US are set to come online this year. Chinese imports of Russian oil surged +50% over the last 2 months, to 2.09 million barrels per day in the first 18 days of February. The surge has more than
offset a sharp decline from India, where imports have fallen -40% from the June peak, to ~1.2 million barrels per day. WTI -1.9%, Brent -1.4%, US Nat Gas -2.5%, RBOB -0.9%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar is flat while the yen strengthens to below 156-handle after BOJ’s Ueda signals intention to continue tightening policy. Board member
Takata renewed his call for raising the benchmark interest rate, describing Japan’s inflation trend as “heated to the core”. The yuan extended gains for a 10th straight session, marking its longest winning streak against the greenback since 2010, after China’s
daily fixing signaled tolerance for a managed appreciation. A gauge for emerging currencies touched a new all-time high, with gains led by the Taiwanese dollar. Global asset managers have grown more bullish across emerging-market equities, currencies, domestic
bonds and credit, potentially offering fresh momentum to the sector’s record-busting rally. US$ Index -0.02%, GBPUSD -0.1%, EURUSD -0.03%, USDJPY -0.15%, AUDUSD -0.1%, NZDUSD -0.2%, USDCHF +0.2%, USDCAD +0.03%, USDSEK +0.2%, USDNOK +0.2%.

Spot Bitcoin -1%, Spot Ethereum -1.5%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Alcon AG (ALC SW) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $97
• Joby Aviation (JOBY) Raised to Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $18
• Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $106
• Shoe Carnival (SCVL) Raised to Buy at Williams Trading; PT $22
• Spotify (SPOT) Raised to Buy at Arete
• U.S. Bancorp (USB) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $66
• Downgrades
• Arcellx (ACLX) Cut to Neutral at Guggenheim; PT $115
• Array (ARRY) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $9
• Ategrity Specialty (ASIC) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $27
• BTB REIT (BTB-U CN) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT C$4.25
• C3.ai (AI) Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
• Cibest (CIBEST CB) ADRs Cut to Underperform at Itau BBA; PT $68
• Clearwater Analytics (CWAN) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC
• Driven Brands (DRVN) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $12
• First Solar (FSLR) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $245
• Merit Medical (MMSI) Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo
• Mosaic (MOS) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $24
• Oddity Tech (ODD) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $16
• Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $13
• Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $23
• Cut to Hold at Needham
• PROCEPT BioRobotics (PRCT) Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $20
• RenaissanceRe (RNR) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $310
• Southern Copper (SCCO) Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $175
• Spok Holdings (SPOK) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $14
• Tanger (SKT) Cut to Neutral at Compass Point; PT $38
• Trade Desk (TTD) Cut to Sell at New Street Research; PT $17
• Cut to Hold at Loop Capital; PT $25
• Vale (VALE3 BZ) ADRs Cut to Neutral at BofA; PT $18
• Initiations
• Builders FirstSource (BLDR) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Eikon Therapeutics (EIKN) Rated New Underperform at Wedbush; PT $7
• Five Below (FIVE) Rated New Outperform at KGI Securities; PT $267
• Fuerte Metals (FMT CN) Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$14
• Hemlo Mining Corp (HMMC CN) Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$12
• LeonaBio Inc (LONA) Rated New Overweight at Cantor
• Orsted (ORSTED DC) ADRs Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT $9.47

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke