Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  9:55ET Fed’s Williams speaks; 11:00ET Trump meets Germany’s Merz at the White House; 11:45ET
Fed’s Kashkari speaks

Morgan Stanley TMT conference in San Francisco (105 companies scheduled to present today, with keynotes from Anthropic and Alphabet) 

Highlights and News:  

• War Expands as US, Israel, Iran Ramp Up Strikes Across Region
• US State Department urges Americans to leave the Middle East
  
• Iran sent a fresh wave of missiles at countries including Qatar, Bahrain and Oman
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry says that the process that the US and Israel begun will “soon engulf Europe”
• Newly Appointed Iranian Minister of Defense has been Eliminated
• UK to send warship to defend base in Cyprus after it was targeted by drones
• Israeli military says it is striking Hezbollah commanders in Beirut

Global stocks and bonds declined sharply as the conflict in Iran stretched into its fourth day, with no indications of de-escalation, amplifying concerns over prolonged
disruptions to energy supplies and a potential spike in inflation. Iranian forces have initiated a strategy devised by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and senior commanders to destabilize the Middle East, disrupt global markets, and ramp up leverage against the US
and Israel to end their attacks. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said that the process that the US and Israel begun will “soon engulf Europe.” Iran has sent missiles at countries hosting US bases, including Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman. Qatar Foreign Ministry Spokesperson
said missile attacks by Iran were not limited to military facilities but included the entire territory of the state, adding “such attacks will not go unanswered.”  The US embassy in Riyadh was attacked by drones and the State Department urged Americans to
leave the Middle East. The IRGC says it hit 10 major spots at the Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain, calling them key US command and equipment areas. The newly appointed Iranian Minister of Defense has been assassinated, just one day after taking office, according
to Israel Channel 12.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are solidly lower on fears that Trump’s “whatever it takes” vow on Iran will fuel energy prices and inflation. Futures declined as reports emerged Monday evening of
drone strikes near the US Embassy in Riyadh, drawing Saudi Arabia deeper into a widening conflict. The US urged Americans to leave countries across the region, citing “serious safety risks.”  Consumer stocks will be in focus in early trading with big-box retailer
Target and a slate of consumer discretionary stocks due to report, including Ross Stores, AutoZone, and Best Buy. Target shares rose premarket after a forecast of better-than-expected profit for the full year. Pinterest shares jumped premarket after the company
announced a $1 billion investment from Elliott.  Elsewhere, Fitch downgraded Paramount Skydance’s corporate and long-term borrower ratings to junk following the Warner Bros. Discovery deal. Blackstone is allowing investors to redeem a record 7.9% of shares
from its flagship private credit fund, the latest sign of unease in the industry.  

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -1.5%, Nasdaq -2%, Russell 2000 -2.3%, DJI -1.5%

In pre-market trading, Energy stocks are set to extend Monday’s gains, while airlines are once again lower. Movers include APA (APA) +2%, Exxon (XOM) +1.6%, American
Airlines (AAL) -2.8%. Nvidia lags most peers as US officials are considering caps on the number of AI accelerators the semiconductor giant can export to any one Chinese company: Nvidia (NVDA) -2.2%, Alphabet (GOOGL) -2.4%, Amazon (AMZN) -2%, Tesla (TSLA) -1.6%,
Microsoft (MSFT) -1.4%, Meta Platforms (META) -1.4%, Apple (AAPL) -0.7%. Archer Aviation (ACHR) falls 4% after the electric vertical takeoff-and-landing aircraft maker reported a fourth-quarter adjusted loss per share that was wider than analysts’ estimates.
Best Buy Co. (BBY) climbs 13% after posting fourth-quarter results and providing guidance. Credo Technology (CRDO) drops 11% after the communications equipment company reported revenue for the third quarter that matched its preliminary results. LendingTree
(TREE) rises 8% after the consumer finance company’s revenue forecast for the full year exceeded the average analyst estimate. MongoDB (MDB) drops 26% after the database software company gave weaker-than-expected forecasts for full-year revenue. On Holding
(ONON) slumps 9% after the athletic apparel company forecast net sales for 2026 that fell short. Ouster (OUST) surges 16% after the lidar company’s first-quarter revenue outlook topped the average analyst estimate. Sea Ltd. (SE) plummets 16% after its quarterly
earnings missed analysts’ estimates. Surgery Partners (SGRY) falls 24% after the health-care facilities operator reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that fell short of estimates. Target Corp. (TGT) climbs 3% after forecasting better-than-expected
profit for the full year, indicating the big-box retailer’s turnaround plans are generating results.

European gauges are broadly and sharply lower, heading for the biggest two-day drop since April as conflict in the Middle East intensifies. Data
showed euro zone inflation rose unexpectedly last month and may rise further in the coming months if war in the Middle East keeps energy prices high. Insurers and banks are at the forefront of a broad selloff in European, with both sectors having now fallen
into negative territory year-to-date. Beiersdorf shares fall more than 18% after the German owner of the Nivea brand posted disappointing guidance. Schaeffler shares sink as much as 20% after the German auto parts supplier announced weaker-than-expected 2026
guidance. Aberdeen Group shares fell as much as 9.2% following its 2025 results that were in line. Intertek shares plunged ~16% after the testing and inspection firm’s results. Forbo shares drop as much as 7.5% after the Swiss linoleum maker revealed only
a minor improvement in second-half results and issued cautious guidance.  Stoxx 600 -3%, DAX -3.5%, CAC -2.9%, FTSE 100 -2.7%.  Banks -4.8%, Insurance -4.2%, Basic Resources -4.1%.

Shares in Asia fell sharply as sentiment deteriorated on Iran conflict headlines. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 3.1% for its worst two-day decline in nearly a
year. Heavyweights Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and TSMC were among the biggest drags on the regional gauge.  South Korean equities led regional losses, with the Kospi down more than 7%. Chinese oil and natural gas shares rise in response to knock-on effects
from the war. Asian cable maker stocks such as Furukawa Electric and Fujikura rise after Nvidia agreed to invest $4 billion in two companies that develop data center optics that are essential for artificial intelligence. Power-station coal prices jumped the
most in three years as an unprecedented shutdown of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas plant raised the needs for fuel-switching in the electricity sector. Kospi -7.25%, Topix -3.2%, Taiwan -2.2%, Vietnam -1.8%, CSI 300 -1.5%, ASX 200 -1.3%, Hang Seng Index -1.1%,
Indonesia -1%. Philippines +0.3%, Singapore +0.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries extend Monday’s slide on growing concern about the conflict’s inflationary fallout, lifting yields by 4bp-8bp with short maturities rising most, flattening
the curve. US front-end yields climbed as much as 10bp as traders priced in a more restrictive Fed policy path, flattening the 2s10s curve by nearly 3bp, 5s30s more than 4bp; US 10-year yields up 6bps to 4.10%, a two-week high.

METALS: 

Gold sinks after a four-day rally, as traders weighed the escalating war in the Middle East against the prospect of a stronger dollar and elevated inflation. In addition
to the headwind from a strengthening US dollar, precious metals frequently decline during broader risk-off episodes, as investors liquidate positions in gold, silver, and similar assets to cover margin calls elsewhere in their portfolios. Singapore is accelerating
efforts to turn itself into a regional hub for bullion trading, tapping JPMorgan, UBS, and other banks to help boost liquidity. Spot gold -2.9%, Silver -7.7%, Copper futures -1.9%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil prices surged for a second day as the US and Israel stepped up their war against Iran, with a fire at a key storage hub in the United Arab Emirates underscoring
the risk to energy supplies. Supertanker costs in the Middle East have hit all-time highs, according to shipping data and industry sources. Global benchmark Brent briefly spiked above $85 a barrel after news of a fire in Fujairah, a major UAE oil hub that
lies outside the strait. Iran already closed the Strait of Hormuz and now they’re hitting Fujairah, the one port that bypasses it. Iranian suicide drones are also striking the Port of Salalah in Oman. Following QatarEnergy’s decision to halt production of
liquefied natural gas (LNG) and related products, the company is now suspending output of certain downstream products in the State of Qatar. Meanwhile, Iraq’s Kirkuk crude oil loadings at Turkey’s Ceyhan port stopped as of today. In natural gas markets, benchmark
European LNG prices jumped by 25%, having surged 39% on Monday, while US natural gas futures were up nearly 6%. WTI +6.7%, Brent +6.8%, US Nat Gas +4.1%, RBOB +5.1%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar rose against all Group-of-10 peers and is headed for its biggest two-day rally in almost a year due to the deepening war in Iran.
The widening conflict in the Middle East is lifting energy prices and boosting the greenback as inflation expectations spiral.  Against that backdrop, traders are curbing expectations for Federal Reserve easing by year-end. The euro declines, with EURUSD breaking
its 200dma for the first time since climbing above it in March 2025. A prolonged war in the Mideast and a persistent fall in oil and gas supplies could cause a “substantial spike” in inflation and a sharp drop in output, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane told
the Financial Times. Sterling fell to a three-month low, ahead of the Spring Statement by Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Australian dollar reverses earlier gains made after RBA Governor Bullock warned the March meeting is “live” and flagged inflation‑expectation
risks from the conflict. Aussie yields jumped, with 3‑years up 15bps as data prompted economists
to lift forecasts ahead of tomorrow’s GDP report. Offshore yuan advanced 0.2% after sharply stronger PBOC fix. US$ Index +0.75%, GBPUSD -0.7%, EURUSD -0.7%, USDJPY +0.25%, AUDUSD -1%, NZDUSD -0.8%, USDCHF +0.7%, USDCAD +0.1%, USDSEK +0.9%, USDNOK +1.2%.

Spot Bitcoin -3.4%, Spot Ethereum -4.3%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• 1stdibs.com (DIBS) Raised to Outperform at Northland; PT $7
• Block (XYZ) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $77
• Innovative Industrial (IIPR) Raised to Neutral at Compass Point; PT $45
• Novo (NOVOB DC) ADRs Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $40
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Raised to Buy at Arete; PT $185
• Unity Software (U) Raised to Neutral at BofA; PT $19
• Downgrades
• Arizona Sonoran Copper (ASCU CN) Cut to Hold at Stifel Canada; PT C$9.35
• BlackRock TCP Capital (TCPC) Cut to Underperform at KBW; PT $3.50
• MongoDB (MDB) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $260
• Sabre (SABR) Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $1.50
• Scotiabank (BNS CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$111
• Select Medical (SEM) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $16.50
• Televisa (TLEVICPO MM) ADRs Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan
• uniQure (QURE) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $12
• Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $15
• Initiations
• AgomAb Therapeutics ADRs Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $36
• AgomAb Therapeutics ADRs Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley
• AgomAb Therapeutics ADRs Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan
• Amylyx Pharmaceuticals (AMLX) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $21
• Carpenter Tech (CRS) Rated New Positive at Susquehanna; PT $470
• CrowdStrike (CRWD) Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo
• Fortinet (FTNT) Rated New Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $64
• General Electric Aerospace (GE) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• iBio (IBIO) Rated New Buy at Jones; PT $7
• Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) ADRs Reinstated Add at China Galaxy; PT $52
• Medpace Holdings (MEDP) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $522
• Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM) Rated New Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $26
• Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $35
• Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $25
• Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Rated New Hold at TD Cowen; PT $26
• Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $43
• Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $25
• Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $29
• Ormat (ORA) Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $130
• Otis Worldwide (OTIS) Rated New Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $109
• SpyGlass Pharma (SGP) Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $62
• Rated New Outperform at Leerink; PT $42
• Reinstated Buy at Citi; PT $42
• Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $42

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke