Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:15ET ADP Employment Change; 9:45ET S&P Global US Services PMI, S&P Global US Composite
PMI; 10:00ET ISM Services Index, Prices Paid, New Orders; 2:00ET Fed’s Beige Book

Highlights and News:  

• Oil Pares Gain on NYT Report of Iran-US Outreach in Bid to End War
• Kospi plunges a record 12%; S&P 500 is down less than 1% since the conflict erupted
• BESSENT: 15% TARIFF RATE LIKELY TO ENTER FORCE THIS WEEK
• Trump’s Hormuz assurances only a partial fix, shippers say
• Biggest Saudi Refinery Faces Another Attack
• HEGSETH CONFIRMS US SUNK PRIZE IRANIAN WARSHIP
• HEGSETH SAYS LEADER BEHIND EFFORT TO ASSASSINATE TRUMP HAS BEEN KILLED
• US and Ecuador launched a joint military action against “Designated Terrorist Organizations”
• The US is sending charter flights to evacuate US citizens from the Middle East
  

Global stocks rebounded after Iranian intelligence officials indirectly reached out to the US in a bid to end the conflict, according to a report by The New York
Times. The outreach was made through another country’s spy agency. This added further juice to an impressive bounce back in European stocks with the region also benefiting from declines in natural gas prices. Trump said on Tuesday that the US would provide
insurance guarantees and naval escorts to ensure safe passage for oil tankers and other vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The shipping industry sees this as only a partial solution to the historic crisis. Meanwhile, the war showed no signs of easing, with
Israel hitting targets in Iran and Lebanon, while Tehran kept up missile and drone attacks on Gulf states. Iran fired a new wave of missiles at Israel and vowed retaliation if diplomats are targeted in Lebanon. Israeli media reports a simultaneous rocket launch
from Iran and Lebanon, marking the first coordinated double salvo from Lebanon and Iran since the beginning of the war

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are back in the green, reversing earlier losses after a report that Iranian operatives used backchannels to contact the Central Intelligence Agency a day after US-Israeli
attacks began.  The offer isn’t considered serious in Washington. Amazingly the S&P 500 is down less than 1% since the conflict erupted. The US is relatively immune as a “gigantic energy superpower,” according to Barclays Plc’s global chairman of research.
Futures dipped back into the red after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a proposed 15% global tariff may take effect this week, bringing trade tensions back into focus. Investors should see any correction in equities as a buying opportunity, Goldman strategists
said. Others on Wall Street warned against counting on a “Trump put” to stabilize markets. 

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.5%, Russell 2000 +0.7%, DJI +0.2%

In pre-market trading, Nvidia rises 0.6% after billionaire Leo KoGuan said he bought 1 million shares of the semiconductor giant and that he is “convinced AI is NOT
a bubble, it is only the beginning.” Cryptocurrency-linked stocks are rallying as Bitcoin rebounds. Gitlab (GTLB) drops 8% after the software company’s forecast for fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS fell short of estimates. Latham Group (SWIM) jumps 20% after the swimming
pool designer’s net sales forecast for the full year surpassed estimates. Moderna (MRNA) rises 11% after the biotechnology company agreed to pay Genevant, a subsidiary of Roivant Sciences, and Arbutus $950 million to settle litigation related to the delivery
technology behind its Covid shot. SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM) rises 8% after entering into an agreement to sell its 80% ownership stake in the Çöpler mine in Turkey to Cengiz for $1.5 billion in cash. Staar Surgical (STAA) falls 10% after the health care supplies
firm reported net sales for the fourth quarter that missed. Webtoon (WBTN) declines 13% after the storytelling platform reported revenue for the fourth quarter that missed estimates.

European gauges rose after a report that Iran made indirect contact with the US to negotiate an end to the war. Speculation rose that the conflict
could be short-lived, with travel & leisure, and technology stocks leading the gains. Among individual companies, ASM International NV rallied as much as 7.3% after its fourth-quarter orders beat estimates. Insurer Scor SE climbed 5.5% after its net income
beat estimates. Galliford Try shares rally as much as 6.8% after the UK construction firm beat expectations in the first half and raised its guidance for the full year. Adidas shares fall as much as 7.8% after the German sportswear maker’s 2026 operating profit
forecast missed estimates. Redcare Pharmacy shares slide over 18% after the online pharmacy reported earnings that missed expectations and gave cautious guidance. Vistry shares plunge as much as 25% to the lowest since 2016 as the UK homebuilder guides to
a lower margin. Stoxx 600 +1.6%, DAX +1.7%, CAC +1.3%, FTSE 100 +0.9%.  Travel & Leisure +3.1%, Technology +2.7%, Basic Resources +2.4%, Banks +2.3%, Autos +2.2%.

Shares in Asia were broadly lower including a record-breaking crash in Seoul, where investors dumped chipmakers. South Korea’s KOSPI plunged over
12%, triggering circuit breakers, amplifying the regional pressure on tech-heavy indices reliant on energy imports and AI/semiconductor momentum. The Iranian war has triggered the biggest-ever selloff in what had been the world’s hottest stock market. Japanese
benchmarks fell more than 3% while Taiwan stocks dropped over 4% as investors rapidly exited positions in semiconductor manufacturers—one of the most popular and crowded trades in recent months. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 4%, driven by regional tech
heavyweights including TSMC, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Indian energy companies slid amid worries over LNG supplies as key provider Qatar stopped output on escalating conflict in the Middle East. Chinese aluminum stocks rise with the metal after a Middle
East producer halted production and declared force majeure on shipments to customers. Kospi -12%, Thailand -5.6%, Indonesia -4.6%, Taiwan -4.3%, Topix -3.7%, Philippines -2.1%, Hang Seng Index -2%, ASX 200 -1.9%, Sensex -1.4%, CSI 300 -1.1%. Vietnam +0.3%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold small losses, with 10-year yield around 4.08%. European bonds outperform amid stabilization in oil prices. US session includes ADP employment change
and ISM services gauge. US yields are 1bp-3bp cheaper, with 2s10s flat and 5s30s curve about 2bp steeper on the day. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far as borrowers continue to stand down amid geopolitical strife, creating a supply backlog for when conditions
are favorable.

METALS: 

Gold advanced, recovering some of the losses of the previous session, as dip-buyers entered a market fraught with risk on the fifth day of war in the Middle East.
Traders are balancing gold’s risk premium against a stronger dollar. Gold’s heavy loss on Tuesday “raised eyebrows, having initially benefited from safe haven demand,” analysts at BMO Capital Markets said. Spot gold +2%, Silver +4.5%, Copper futures +1.5%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil prices pared gains on a report that Iran indirectly reached out to the US in a bid to end the war in the Middle East. Brent is roughly flat near $81 a barrel,
after surging in the previous two sessions. The New York Times reported that operatives from Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence reached out through another country’s spy agency to the CIA with an offer to discuss terms for ending the conflict. Meanwhile, Saudi
Arabia said there was an attempt to attack its Ras Tanura refinery. The kingdom also confirmed it’s diverting supplies away from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea as part of a plan to keep operations running.  Iraq — the second-biggest OPEC producer — has begun
shutting the Rumaila oil field, the nation’s biggest, and the West Qurna 2 project. Trump said on Tuesday the US International Development Finance Corporation would offer insurance to vessels to help ensure the flow of energy and other trade, providing a naval
escort “if necessary.” But the shipping industry sees it as only a partial solution to a historic crisis. The Strait of Hormuz is under wartime conditions and ships sailing through it “could be at risk from missiles or rogue drones,” the Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps said in a statement. Iran has already struck more than 10 tankers, it added. Diesel markets in Europe posted their biggest two-day gain on record. WTI -0.7%, Brent -0.2%, US Nat Gas -1.7%, RBOB +0.3%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar fell versus all Group-of-10 peers after a NYT report that Iran operatives made an offer to discuss terms for ending the war. The yen
gained during APAC trade amid intervention talk from Japan’s Katayama, when he said US-Japan agreement also includes FX intervention. Swiss franc rose after SNB policymaker Antoine Martin said the central bank’s willingness to intervene in currency markets
is higher given the current geopolitical situation. Swiss inflation remained at just 0.1% in February, keeping pressure on the central bank to avoid reintroducing negative rates. India’s rupee weakened to a record low on concern that rising crude prices may
stoke inflation and widen the trade deficit. Taiwan’s dollar extended losses to its weakest since May, weighed down by heavy foreign outflows. US$ Index -0.15%, GBPUSD +0.15%, EURUSD +0.3%, USDJPY -0.4%, AUDUSD +0.3%, NZDUSD +0.5%, USDCHF -0.3%, USDCAD -0.15%,
USDSEK -1%, USDNOK -0.2%.

Spot Bitcoin +5%, Spot Ethereum +4.8%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• American Electric Power (AEP) Raised to Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann
• Cementos Pacasmayo (CPACASI1 PE) ADRs Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $13
• Dow (DOW) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $38
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) Raised to Buy at Jones; PT $29
• LyondellBasell (LYB) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $73
• Ross Stores (ROST) Raised to Outperform at Telsey; PT $240
• RPM International (RPM) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $125
• Southern Co (SO) Raised to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Target (TGT) Raised to Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $116
• Raised to Outperform at Telsey
• Downgrades
• Alpha Tau Medical (DRTS) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $5
• Avient Corp (AVNT) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Cooper Cos (COO) Cut to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $85
• DHT Holdings (DHT) Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT $20.50
• Frontline PLC (FRO) Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT $37.21
• Gitlab (GTLB) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $28
• Intl Seaways (INSW) Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT $73.50
• LegalZoom (LZ) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $6
• Nordic American Tankers (NAT) Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities
• Okeanis Eco Tankers (ECO) Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT $50
• Pet Valu (PET CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$28
• Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank; PT C$28
• Select Medical (SEM) Cut to Hold at Benchmark
• Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $16.50
• Theravance Bio (TBPH) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $14
• Vulcan Materials (VMC) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $320
• Webtoon (WBTN) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $11.50
• Initiations
• Blue Ant Media (BAMI CN) Rated New Outperform at National Bank; PT C$11
• CAE (CAE CN) Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$50
• Chime Financial (CHYM) Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $30
• D.R. Horton (DHI) Reinstated Hold at Truist Secs; PT $155
• Inhibikase Therapeutics (IKT) Rated New Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann
• KB Home (KBH) Reinstated Hold at Truist Secs; PT $65
• Lennar (LEN) Reinstated Hold at Truist Secs; PT $110
• Meritage Homes (MTH) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $90
• NLight (LASR) Rated New Outperform at Baird
• NVR (NVR) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $7,700
• Paramount Resources (POU CN) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners
• Protara Therapeutics Inc (TARA) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan
• PulteGroup (PHM) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $170
• Roblox (RBLX) Rated New Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $65
• Spartan Delta (SDE CN) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT C$13.50
• SPX Technologies (SPXC) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $260
• Taylor Morrison (TMHC) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $85
• Tesla (TSLA) Reinstated Buy at BofA
• Toll Brothers (TOL) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $190

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke