Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:
8:30ET US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, January Import Price Index, Fed’s Barkin speaks; 13:15ET Fed’s Bowman Speaks; 19:00ET Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks

Highlights and News:  

• Two drones flying ‌from Iran fell on the territory of Azerbaijan
  ⁠on Thursday. Azerbaijan has warned that Iran’s drone strikes “will not go unanswered”
• Iran says they offered a uranium deal to the US before the attacks began. “We are ready to get rid of it, provided we get something good in return,” the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency cites
  Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi
• Iran fires new wave of missiles at Israel – IRIB
• A Sonangol Marine Services oil tanker suffered an explosion off the coast of Iraq after a strike by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy
• Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei is back in talks with the Pentagon about the use of its AI models, Financial Times

Global stocks were mixed as the Islamic Republic vowed to intensify its retaliation, and strikes across the Middle East persist. Arab states and Israel have reported
interceptions of Iranian missiles and drones into Thursday, with Qatar telling residents to remain indoors due to the high level of threat. Israel is carrying out waves of airstrikes on the Iranian capital, hitting military and intelligence assets. Further
oil and energy spikes have left markets contending with risks of a slowdown amidst a resilient global economy. “The key issue is transit through the Strait of Hormuz. If it is blocked for more than a week, the risk of sustained high energy prices would become
real,” said Roberto Scholtes, head of strategy at Singular Bank.  Stress in energy markets has China seeking to conserve fuel and Japanese refiners calling for the release of strategic petroleum reserves. The Islamic Republic is still to appoint a new supreme
leader, with a decision to be made “as soon as possible,” Iran’s semi-official Mehr reported.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are lower absent a White House response following Iran’s report that it told the US it was ready to relinquish its stockpile of highly enriched uranium in return for
“something good.” Choppy trading continues over the futures session as stocks struggle for direction after various reports from the Middle East. Markets will look to U.S. economic data over the next two days, including initial jobless claims and nonfarm payrolls,
for signs of market strength and future fed-rate decisions. Expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, however, are tempered amongst high inflation expectations and recent US data showing signs of a resilient US economy.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.2%, Nasdaq -0.25%, Russell 2000 -0.7%, DJI -0.5%

In pre-market trading, Broadcom (AVGO) is up 6.9% after the chipmaker posted first-quarter results that beat expectations on key metrics and gave a positive revenue
outlook. Meta is underperforming Magnificent Seven peers. The social media giant was downgraded at Arete, which said that the firm is “lagging” in terms of AI monetization. Stubhub (STUB) is down 11% after the ticket reseller’s 2026 forecast and fourth-quarter
results came in below Wall Street’s expectations. Trade Desk Inc. (TTD) jumps 18% in premarket trading after The Information reported that the company held talks to help OpenAI sells ads. Veeva Systems (VEEV) jumps 11% after the tech firm’s first-quarter adjusted
earnings per share outlook came in above the average analyst estimate.

European gauges reversed earlier gains following a report that Iran told the US in nuclear negotiations before the war started that it was ready
to get rid of its stockpile of enriched uranium. Utility and retail stocks led the region; Davide Campari-Milano NV advanced 8% after the Italian spirits group reported full-year earnings that beat expectations. Airline stocks dragged on the index as budget
airlines Wizz Air and EasyJet Plc were down as much as 7.8% and 3.8% respectively prior to paring some losses. Citigroup Inc. maintains that equities will likely remain volatile and sensitive to incremental news flow as tensions in the Middle East continue.Stoxx
600 +0.4%, DAX +0.2%, CAC +0.2%, FTSE 100 +0.2%. 

Shares in Asia rebound from a three-day rout behind South Korea’s best gain since 2008. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 3.8%, the most
since April 10, before settling at +2.2%. Chipmakers in the region such as Samsung, TSMC and SK Hynix were among the biggest boosts; the two South Korean names each gained over 5.8%. Chip stocks in China also rose after the government pledged to speed up AI
chip development in its five-year plan draft. Shares in Japan advanced as banks including Mizuho Financial Group and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group jumped amid rising bond yields following solid US economic indicators. Blue-chip Nikkei 225 Stock Average and
the broader Topix index both climbed 1.9%. Kospi +9.6%, Topix +1.9, Taiwan +2.6%, Vietnam -0.5%, CSI 300 +1.0%, ASX 200 +0.4%, Hang Seng Index +0.3%, Indonesia +1.8%. Philippines +1.1%, Singapore +0.7%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

U.S. Treasuries are slightly weaker ahead of key labor data, though they’re outperforming European bonds as oil prices jump over 4% amid Middle East supply disruptions.
Yields are 2–3 basis points higher across the curve, with the 10-year near 4.12% as the 5s30s spread flattens. Meanwhile, a busy corporate issuance calendar—led by HSBC’s four-part deal—continues to absorb investor demand after $17.65 billion priced Wednesday.
Attention now turns to jobless claims, productivity, and Fed speakers Bowman and Goolsbee later in the day.

METALS: 

Gold climbed as intensifying conflict in the Middle East drove investors toward safe-haven assets.  U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliatory missile attacks
across the Gulf disrupted vital energy infrastructure and blocked the Strait of Hormuz. The metal, up roughly 20% this year, remains underpinned by tensions over trade.

Spot gold +0.3%, Silver -0.1%

ENERGY:   

Oil prices rose as the Iran war disrupts Middle East supply, with Brent near $83 and WTI around $76.50 a barrel. The effective blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has
slashed tanker traffic by over 95%, bottling up crude from Iran and other Gulf producers and forcing some output shut-ins. China has ordered major refiners to halt diesel and gasoline exports, while Japan and India are seeking emergency supply measures, tightening
product markets further. The conflict’s spread across the region is lifting oil, gas, and freight costs and creating broad disruption for producing and importing nations. The cost of shipping crude from the US Gulf Coast to China jumped to a record of over
$29 million per supertanker, about doubling from two weeks ago. WTI +3.7%, Brent +2.9%, US Nat Gas +1.8%, RBOB +3.6%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the US dollar recovers some of its earlier gains as it rises against most G-10 peers. January weekly jobless claims, Q4 productivity and import
and export price data are set to be released at 8:30ET. The Canadian looney is the only major currency higher versus the dollar. EUR/USD fell despite European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos saying overnight that a longer war in the Middle East
could lift inflation expectations and require policy adjustment by the ECB. Though slightly lower, the Japanese yen received support as BoJ officials reiterate that they’re still on track to raise interest rates. US$ Index +0.2%, GBPUSD flat, EURUSD -0.1%,
USDJPY -0.27%, AUDUSD -0.4%, NZDUSD -0.3%, USDCHF -0.1%, USDCAD +0.2%, USDSEK -0.3%, USDNOK -0.2%.

Spot Bitcoin -0.8%, Spot Ethereum -1.0%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (AEM CN) Raised to Buy at Erste Group
• AIG (AIG) Raised to Buy at Goldman
• Antero Resources (AR) Raised to Buy at Benchmark; PT $44
• Builders FirstSource (BLDR) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT $119
• CME Group (CME) Raised to Buy at Erste Group
• Cross Country Health (CCRN) Raised to Buy at Benchmark; PT $14
• Dauch Corp. (DCH) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $8
• Dow (DOW) Raised to Market Perform at BMO; PT $35
• LyondellBasell (LYB) Raised to Market Perform at BMO; PT $68
• Marriott Vacations (VAC) Raised to Outperform at Mizuho Securities
• Meta (META) Raised to Buy at Erste Group
• MongoDB (MDB) Raised to Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $310
• Penn Entertainment (PENN) Raised to Buy at Benchmark; PT $21
• Seadrill (SDRL) Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT $46
• SSR Mining (SSRM CN) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT C$56.02
• Westlake Corp (WLK) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $127
• Downgrades
• Allstate (ALL) Cut to Neutral at Goldman
• American Air (AAL) Cut to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn
• Baytex Energy (BTE CN) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James; PT C$5.50
• Diamondback (FANG) Cut to Hold at Benchmark
• Frontline PLC (FRO) Cut to Hold at ABG; PT $37.27
• Grocery Outlet (GO) Cut to Market Perform at Telsey; PT $9
• Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $7
• Meta (META) Cut to Neutral at Arete
• Morgan Stanley (MS) Cut to Hold at Erste Group
• Permian Resources (PR) Cut to Hold at Benchmark
• Sable Offshore (SOC) Cut to Hold at Benchmark
• Stubhub (STUB) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $10
• Talos Energy (TALO) Cut to Hold at Benchmark
• Tencent Music (TME) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Macquarie; PT $14.10
• Vermilion Energy (VET CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$16
• Walmart (WMT) Cut to Hold at Erste Group
• Webtoon (WBTN) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $10
• Initiations
• Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Reinstated Buy at BofA; PT $82
• AGI (AGBK) Rated New Buy at HSBC; PT $15
• American Tower (AMT) Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $205
• Astera Labs (ALAB) Rated New Buy at Loop Capital; PT $250
• Blackstone (BX) Reinstated Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $126
• CoreWeave (CRWV) Rated New Underperform at Bernstein
• Crown Castle (CCI) Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $102
• Digital Realty (DLR) Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $218
• Equinix (EQIX) Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $1,128
• Klarna (KLAR) Reinstated Buy at BofA; PT $21
• Minera Alamos (MAI CN) Rated New Buy at Stifel Canada; PT C$9.50
• NexGen Energy (NXE CN) Rated New Buy at UBS; PT C$20
• SBA Comms (SBAC) Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $218
• Sunbelt Rentals (SUNB) Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $78
• Vanda Pharma (VNDA) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $18
• Vestas (VWS DC) ADRs Rated New Hold at Berenberg; PT $9.20
• Visa (V) Reinstated Buy at BofA; PT $410

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

Bryan Duong