Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:
7:30ET Fed’s Waller; 8:30ET Fed’s Daly, US Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment, January Retail Sales; 9:50ET Fed’s Goolsbee; 10:15ET Fed’s Daly and Paulson; 11:30ET Fed’s Miran;
13:20ET Fed’s Collins; 13:30ET Fed’s Hammack; 15:00ET US January Consumer Credit, 15:10ET Fed’s Hammack

Highlights and News:  

• Qatar’s energy minister warned that the Middle East conflict will likely force Persian Gulf countries to halt
  energy exports within weeks
• US gasoline pump prices hit their highest since September 2024
•  A US-sanctioned tanker blacklisted for handling Iranian liquefied petroleum gas crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, one of only a handful of vessels to make it through the waterway in recent
  days
• Anthropic will challenge in court a Pentagon decision labeling it a US supply-chain threat
• Trump and Hegseth to meet CEOs of defense companies today

Global stocks
are broadly lower as no signs of slowing conflict in the Middle East have been presented. Iran fired a barrage of missiles and drones across the Persian Gulf overnight and Israel
renewed airstrikes on the Islamic Republic. Missile alerts were sent to residents in Dubai on Friday while Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain all reported attacks. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told NBC News his country hasn’t asked for a ceasefire
and had no intention to negotiate. Energy prices continue to soar as maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a near-complete halt. Markets will look to US payroll data and a slew of Fed speakers on Friday to provide some relief.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are trading lower as conflict in the Middle East continues to fuel inflation expectations. With the Dow on track for its worst week since October, traders are now banking
on a strong employment report at today’s 8:30AM reading to help steady US indexes. Expectations are for February payroll numbers to show unemployment holding steady and hiring moderating from a hot January. Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist
at Goldman Sachs, cautions that “this is an anxiety not only about how long the conflict goes on, but what kind of effect it’s going to have on the mix between growth and inflation”. Big swings in the market are likely to continue as the economic impacts of
escalating strikes in the Middle East become clearer.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.7%, Nasdaq -0.9%, Russell 2000 -1.0%, DJI -0.7%

In pre-market trading, energy stocks are rising and airline stocks are declining as oil prices have hit their highest level since 2024. Marvell Technology (MRVL) rallies
11% after the chipmaker said its year-over-year revenue growth rate will accelerate each quarter throughout fiscal 2027. Gap Inc. (GAP) falls 8% after reporting fourth-quarter sales and profits that came in slightly below expectations. Nutex Health Inc. (NUTX)
plunges 28% after the health-focused application software firm reported revenue for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. Samsara (IOT) climbs 11% after the technology firm reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share that topped
the average analyst estimate. United Airlines (UAL) is down 2.5% amid high oil prices and the FAA seeking steeper cuts in flights at Chicago O’Hare. Nvidia (NVDA) is down -1.3% as the US Commerce Department have written draft regulations that would restrict
AI chip shipments to anywhere in the world without American approval.

European stocks are trading down and near session lows after posting initial gains in the early session. The region is headed for its worst weekly
decline in eleven months, sinking nearly five percent as the economy expanded 0.2% in Q4, worse than the preliminary estimate of 0.3%. Continued surging energy prices and uncertainty in the Middle East have disrupted business and stoked fears of inflation.
Traders are now fully pricing 25 basis points of interest-rate hikes from the European Central Bank this year. Shipping giant Maersk said on Friday it had suspended two services linking the Middle East to Asia and Europe. Shares moved lower on the news before
making a strong recovery and turning positive. Stoxx 600 -1.0%, DAX -0.9%, CAC -0.9%, FTSE 100 -0.6%. 

Shares in Asia were mixed with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index erasing early losses as high as 1.2%. Despite finishing 0.2% higher, the regional benchmark
capped off its worst week since the Covid selloff in March 2020. Japanese equities gained for a second day as bargain-hunting in tech shares helped indexes recover. Sony Group contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 2.8%. Chinese technology shares
jumped, boosted by easing concerns over the sector’s profitability. JD.com Inc. led Friday’s rally on better-than-feared results and an upbeat tone from management. Samsung and SK Hynix were among the biggest drags, eliminating much of Thursday’s rebound.
Kospi ~flat, Topix +0.4%, Taiwan -0.2%, Vietnam -2.2%, CSI 300 +0.3%, ASX 200 -1.0%, Hang Seng Index +1.7%, Indonesia -1.6%. Philippines -0.9%, Singapore ~flat.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

U.S. Treasuries extended losses as WTI surges above $86, up another 6% on the day, adding to inflation concerns ahead of the February jobs report. Yields are 2‑5bp
higher across the curve in a bearish flattening, with the 10‑year around 4.17% and the 5s30s
spread about 2bp tighter, while UK gilts are selling off even more. Expectations for Fed rate cuts keep shrinking, with front‑end
swaps now pricing only about 32bp of easing this year and the first full 25bp cut pushed back to October, while European markets now see a rate hike by year‑end.
Busy US data and Fed‑speak lineup, including payrolls and retail sales at 8:30 a.m., followed
by business inventories, consumer credit.

METALS: 

Gold pared earlier loss but is still on track for its first weekly drop in over a month, with prices down more than 3% as a firmer dollar and rising Treasury yields outweigh the war-driven
safe‑haven bid. Gold remains up nearly 20% year‑to‑date,
supported by US President Donald Trump‘s trade and geopolitical shocks and concerns over Federal Reserve independence, even as some equity investors use the metal as a liquidity source during this week’s stock selloff. Spot gold -0.2%, Silver -0.2%

ENERGY:   

US crude (WTI) has surged above $85 a barrel for the first time in nearly two years as the Iran war brings shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to a near standstill,
choking off flows and forcing producers to shut in output. Brent is up more than 20% on the week, European diesel futures have spiked over 50%, and central banks are warning about renewed inflation pressure as refineries, tankers, and key infrastructure come
under fire. Qatar’s energy minister has floated scenarios where oil could reach $150 within weeks if Hormuz remains effectively closed, while Goldman Sachs says a prolonged disruption could see Brent clear $100 even though its base case still assumes a gradual
recovery and Q2 prices averaging around $76. In response, Washington has granted a short-term waiver allowing India to take stranded Russian cargoes and is weighing options including potential releases from strategic reserves, as Asian buyers like China and
Japan move to secure domestic supply and Saudi Arabia reroutes barrels via the Red Sea to bypass the Gulf chokepoint. WTI +6.6%, Brent +4.5%, US Nat Gas +3.0%, RBOB +1.8%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets,
the US dollar erased earlier losses and is now trading higher against its G-10 peers as inflation expectations threaten fewer interest rate cuts. CAD and NOK are holding small
gains against the greenback today. EUR/USD has rolled over as markets swung from pricing cuts to full expectations of an ECB hike this year. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is on track for its best week since October 2024 as investors seek safe-haven assets
amidst market volatility. US$ Index +0.02%, GBPUSD -0.2%, EURUSD -0.4%, USDJPY -0.2%, AUDUSD -0.1%, NZDUSD -0.4%, USDCHF -0.1%, USDCAD +0.2%, USDSEK -0.3%, USDNOK +0.03%.

Spot Bitcoin -1.7%, Spot Ethereum -1.5%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Automotive Properties (APR-U CN) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT C$13
• BorgWarner (BWA) Raised to Neutral at UBS; PT $55
• Dow (DOW) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $40
• First Advantage (FA) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $15
• Hayward (HAYW) Raised to Buy at BofA
• Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank
• Intuit (INTU) Raised to Buy at Northcoast; PT $575
• Iqvia (IQV) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $210
• Karman Holdings (KRMN) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $127
• Lundin Gold (LUG CN) Raised to Reduce at Veritas Investment Research Co
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) Raised to Buy at Benchmark; PT $130
• Medpace Holdings (MEDP) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $500
• Netflix (NFLX) Raised to Buy at CFRA
• Okta (OKTA) Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT $97
• Stock Yards Bancorp (SYBT) Raised to Outperform at Hovde Group; PT $75
• Tencent Music (TME) ADRs Raised to Buy at 86Research; PT $17.40
• Trade Desk (TTD) Raised to Overweight at Huber Research Partners
• UniFirst (UNF) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $250
• Union Pacific (UNP) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $311
• Downgrades
• ADT Inc. (ADT) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $7
• AES Corp (AES) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $15
• Avantor (AVTR) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $8.50
• Brilliant Earth Group (BRLT) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $1.50
• Certara (CERT) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $8
• Coterra Energy (CTRA) Cut to Hold at SWS
• Delek Logistics Partners (DKL) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $52
• Enhabit (EHAB) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT $13.80
• FLEX LNG (FLNG) Cut to Sell at ABG; PT $25
• Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) Cut to Hold at SWS
• Pacific Bio (PACB) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $1.50
• Thinkific Labs (THNC CN) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT C$2
• Trade Desk (TTD) Cut to Underperform at Wedbush; PT $23
• Vizsla Royalties (VROY CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$4.50
• Vizsla Silver (VZLA CN) Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$7
• Zoetis (ZTS) Cut to Hold at Nephron Research; PT $131
• Initiations
• ALX Oncology (ALXO) Reinstated Buy at UBS; PT $6
• BJ’s Restaurants (BJRI) Rated New Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $38
• Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) Rated New Buy at DA Davidson; PT $21
• Brinker (EAT) Rated New Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $155
• Cava Group (CAVA) Rated New Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $80
• Chipotle (CMG) Reinstated Buy at DA Davidson; PT $51
• CoreWeave (CRWV) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $140
• Customers Bancorp (CUBI) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $90
• Dutch Bros (BROS) Rated New Buy at DA Davidson; PT $67
• El Pollo Loco (LOCO) Rated New Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $11
• Energy Recovery (ERII) Rated New Buy at Northcoast; PT $14
• Eni (ENI IM) ADRs Rated New Hold at Berenberg; PT $41
• First Watch Restaurant (FWRG) Rated New Buy at DA Davidson; PT $17
• InvenTrust Properties (IVT) Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $35
• Itron (ITRI) Rated New Buy at Needham; PT $124
• Kura Sushi (KRUS) Rated New Buy at DA Davidson; PT $90
• Motorcar Parts (MPAA) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $18
• Portillo’s (PTLO) Rated New Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $5.50
• PROCEPT BioRobotics (PRCT) Rated New Neutral at Baird; PT $30
• SBC Medical Group (SBC) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $8
• Shake Shack (SHAK) Rated New Buy at DA Davidson; PT $125
• Starbucks (SBUX) Reinstated Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $97
• Sweetgreen (SG) Rated New Neutral at DA Davidson; PT $5.50
• Wingstop (WING) Rated New Buy at DA Davidson; PT $330

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

Bryan Duong