Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Trade Balance, Imports, Exports, Initial Jobless Claims,
Housing Starts, Building Permits;  11:00ET Fed’s Bowman speaks; 1:00ET 30-Year Bond Auction  

Highlights and News:  

• IRAN WAR CAUSING BIGGEST-EVER OIL MARKET DISRUPTION, IEA SAYS
• IDF BEGAN LARGE-SCALE STRIKES IN SEVERAL AREAS IN IRAN
• IRAN’S NEW SUPREME LEADER TO ISSUE FIRST STATEMENT: TASNIM
• Oil prices soar past $100 as tankers attacked in Gulf and Strait of Hormuz
• Oman evacuates oil port, ships hit in Gulf as crisis worsens
• Iran Escalates Attacks on Dubai and Shipping
• US starts trade probe into China, EU as Trump revives duties

Global stocks fell amid escalating attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf, which dashed hopes for any quick resolution to the Middle East conflict. The surge in violence
drove Brent crude back above $100 per barrel to around $101.50 before paring some gains, reigniting worries about persistent inflation and broader economic fallout from the prolonged Iran war. Two oil tankers burst into flames in Iraqi territorial waters overnight,
marking the latest escalation in a wave of attacks on commercial vessels across the Persian Gulf that continues to heighten threats to worldwide energy supplies. The incident prompted Iraq to suspend operations at its oil terminals and ports entirely, further
choking exports amid the broader Strait of Hormuz crisis. Authorities and maritime security firms describe the attacks as a sharp intensification targeting energy infrastructure and transport, with no immediate signs of de-escalation.
The Associated Press reported that Iran’s joint military command said banks and financial institutions are now targets in the Middle East.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are lower as oil prices kept rising amid widening disruptions to crude transport operations in the Middle East. The conflict is creating the biggest-ever disruption
in oil markets, affecting 7.5% of global supply and an even greater portion of exports, the International Energy Agency said. Any sustained pickup in price pressures may make it harder for the Federal Reserve to justify resuming interest-rate cuts in coming
months, with money markets seeing only one reduction for 2026. Mounting pressures in the private credit sector added to the broader market unease, as Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater LLC imposed caps on withdrawals from their multibillion-dollar funds amid a
surge in redemption demands. The industry has been hit by a wave of redemption requests amid growing concerns about loan quality—particularly exposures to software companies vulnerable to AI disruption and signs of deteriorating credit standards.
Outside of the Middle East conflict, traders are also paying attention to the latest development on the tariff front. The Trump administration has started the first of several
trade investigations, setting the stage for levies that will replace the ones struck down.

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P -0.6%, Nasdaq -0.6%, Russell 2000 -1.3%, DJI -0.8%

In pre-market trading, Blue Owl Capital (OWL) falls 3% after the asset manager defended its recent sale of $1.4 billion of loans from three of its funds, arguing the
transaction contained no backstops or hidden incentives. Bumble (BMBL) rises 24% after the online dating company forecast Ebitda for the first quarter that beat expectations. Lightwave Logic (LWLG) climbs 16% after the company announced a development agreement
with Tower Semiconductor. Petco (WOOF) rises 10% as the pet health and wellness company’s adjusted Ebitda forecast for the first quarter beat analyst estimates. UiPath (PATH) falls 6% after the software company reported fourth-quarter results. Fertilizer,
energy and chemical stocks climb as the war in Iran and disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz tighten supply.

Interestingly, Iran has attacked UAE 3x to Israel.

European gauges are lower in choppy trading as the war in Iran causes more shipping turmoil. Banks are the biggest underperformer, while defense
and chemicals outperform. Accelleron Industries jumped as much as 17% to an all-time high, after the maker of turbochargers posted full-year earnings that topped expectations, with a solid outlook and its first buybacks. Abivax rose as much as 17% after La
Lettre reported the biotech company had granted AstraZeneca exclusive access to confidential information until March 23 with a view to formalizing an offer. K+S gains as much as 8.8%, the most since last April, after the German fertilizer group reported solid
earnings. Zalando gains as much as 9.2% after the German online seller of fashion announced a new share buyback program. Trainline shares slide as much as 6.7% after its annual results. On the Beach shares drop as much as 15% after the online seller of package
holidays suspended its full-year guidance. European earnings are likely to be resilient to an economic slowdown and energy price increases sparked by the Iran conflict, according to Goldman Sachs strategists. Stoxx 600 -0.5%, DAX -0.3%, CAC -0.6%, FTSE 100
-0.4%. Banks -2.6%, Travel & Leisure -1%, Real Estate -0.9%, Autos -0.9%. Chemicals +1.4%, Defense +1.3%, Retail +0.4%.

Shares in Asia fell, snapping a two-day winning streak after a string of disruptions in the Iran war renewed fears of a longer-term energy supply strain in the Middle
East. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 1.2%, led by chipmakers TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix. The jump in oil prices came as Iran suspended oil terminal activity following an assault on two tankers, and Oman temporarily evacuated its main export hub. With
no stockpiles of petrochemicals — used to make products like fertilizer and polyester — industries from agriculture to semiconductors “will face some form of price pressure at the least and slowing production at the worst,” according to Morningstar research.
Xpeng shares lead some Chinese EV stocks higher after JPMorgan says a “bottom-fishing opportunity” is emerging for the sector. Chinese optical-related shares extend their rally as optical fiber prices continue to rise due to strong AI-related demand. Taiwan
-1.6%, Topix -1.3%, ASX 200 -1.3%, Vietnam -1.1%, Sensex -1.1%, Philippines -0.7%, Hang Seng Index -0.7%, Kospi -0.5%, Indonesia -0.4%, CSI 300 -0.4%, Singapore -0.2%. Thailand +1.6%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields slightly lower on the day after ticking highest levels in at least a month. US long-end yields are little changed with front-end tenors richer by
1bp, steepening 5s30s spread by 0.5bp. 10-year yield hovers around 4.23%. US session includes 30-year bond sale, last of this week’s three coupon auctions. $22 billion 30-year bond reopening follows soft demand for Wednesday’s 10-year note auction, which tailed
by 0.7bp.

METALS: 

Gold traded in a narrow range after the release of US inflation data dimmed prospects for interest-rate cuts and the war in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher.
While core US inflation came in tame at the start of the year, forward-looking inflationary concerns linked to conflict in the Middle East have caused traders to pare back some of their bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, weighing on non-yielding
gold. Spot gold -0.1%, Silver +1.2%, Copper futures +0.2%. 

ENERGY:   

Brent crude soared briefly back above $100 a barrel following a slew of reports on Middle East oil tanker attacks, port disruption and multiple waves of drone and
missile attacks. The International Energy Agency said in a monthly report that the war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, with crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz collapsing from about
20 million barrels per day before the conflict to only a trickle. The IEA emphasized that bypass options are limited (only 3.5–5.5 mb/d of pipeline capacity avoids the Strait). Iran escalated attacks on parts of Dubai and shipping assets, causing more concern
about the length of the war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Two oil tankers were hit in Iraqi waters, prompting the nation’s oil terminals to suspend operations. Meanwhile, the average retail cost for a gallon of gasoline in the US has risen
to the highest level since May 2024 — piling pressure onto the Trump administration to find an off-ramp for the conflict. The latest attacks raises the number of ships struck in the region since fighting began to at least 16. WTI +6.3%, Brent +6.7%, US Nat
Gas -0.6%, RBOB +3.7%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the US$ Index is slightly higher, heading for its strongest close in nearly two months as oil prices rose on concerns about the length of the
Middle East conflict. Yen edges higher as strategists see a high threshold for intervention. Traders are looking ahead to potential catalysts next week, including the Bank of Japan’s meeting and the Prime Minister’s visit to the US, which could shape the yen’s
trajectory and put downward pressure on the currency. Sterling eases as economists at Goldman Sachs push back their forecast on the timing of the next BOE interest-rate cut to July from April, citing the energy shock arising from the Iran war. US$ Index +0.1%,
GBPUSD -0.15%, EURUSD -0.15%, USDJPY -0.1%, AUDUSD -0.3%, NZDUSD -0.25%, USDCHF +0.1%, USDCAD is flat, USDSEK +0.4%, USDNOK +0.15%.

Spot Bitcoin -0.5%, Spot Ethereum %. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Aptiv (APTV) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $97
• Bumble (BMBL) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan
• Cemex (CEMEXCPO MM) ADRs Raised to Outperform at Itau BBA; PT $14.50
• Crocs (CROX) Raised to Hold at Williams Trading; PT $84
• Dow (DOW) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $40
• First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT C$50
• Kinross Gold (K CN) Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT C$61.15
• LyondellBasell (LYB) Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $76
• Murphy Oil (MUR) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $41
• Nutrien (NTR CN) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT C$130.44
• Occidental (OXY) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $69
• Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $66
• Pampa Energia (PAMP AR) ADRs Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $97
• Petco (WOOF) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $5
• Ryanair (RYA ID) ADRs Raised to Outperform at Evercore ISI
• SSR Mining (SSRM CN) Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT C$65.21
• Target Hospitality (TH) Raised to Buy at Texas Capital; PT $12
• TPG RE Finance Trust (TRTX) Raised to Market Outperform at Citizens
• Downgrades
• BSR Real Estate (HOM/U CN) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $14
• Campbell’s (CPB) Cut to Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $20
• Coca-Cola Femsa (KOFUBL MM) ADRs Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $113
• Conagra (CAG) Cut to Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $15
• Farmland Partners (FPI) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Generac (GNRC) Cut to Neutral at Citi
• General Mills (GIS) Cut to Underweight at Wells Fargo; PT $35
• MercadoLibre (MELI) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $2,100
• North American Construction (NOA CN) Cut to Market Perform at BMO
• Scorpio Tankers (STNG) Cut to Hold at DNB Carnegie; PT $76
• SK Telecom (017670 KS) ADRs Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT $23
• Vale (VALE3 BZ) ADRs Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $15.50
• Vivo (VIVT3 BZ) ADRs Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $16
• Wealthfront (WLTH) Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $9.50
• Weyerhaeuser (WY) Cut to Sell at CFRA
• Initiations
• Arista Networks (ANET) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen
• BWX Technologies (BWXT) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $230
• Ciena (CIEN) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen
• Coherent Corp (COHR) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen
• Equinix (EQIX) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
• Flex (FLEX) Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $70
• Jabil (JBL) Reinstated Outperform at Baird; PT $275
• Lear (LEA) Reinstated Sector Perform at RBC; PT $135
• Life Time (LTH) Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $40
• Lumentum (LITE) Rated New Hold at TD Cowen
• Pecoy Copper (PCU CN) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT C$3
• Pennon (PNN LN) ADRs Reinstated Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $15.50
• Planet Fitness (PLNT) Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $100
• Prime Medicine (PRME) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $11
• Rush Street (RSI) Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $25
• Severn Trent (SVT LN) ADRs Reinstated Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $34.40
• Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
• VTV Therapeutics (VTVT) Rated New Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $44
• Xponential (XPOF) Rated New Sector Weight at KeyBanc

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke