Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:30ET Trade Balance, Imports, Exports, Jobless Claims; 10:15ET Fed’s Logan speaks; 12:45ET
Fed’s Bowman speaks

Highlights and News:  

• Trump threatens to escalate Iran war but says end is very close
• TRUMP ADMIN WILL ENFORCE A 25% TARIFF ON FINISHED STEEL & ALUMINUM PRODUCTS
• Senate Rejects House Version of DHS Funding Bill
• Goldman Paris Warned of Iran Group Bomb Threat
• Iran’s Speaker of Parliament claims that 7 million Iranians have declared they are ready to join the war
• NASA’s crew of astronauts reached a stable orbit, but toilet is out of order…

Global equities tumble and crude oil soars after President Trump pledged more aggressive actions in Iran, dashing hopes of a swift resolution to the Middle East war.
Oil prices surged over 7% after Trump said in a prime-time address that the US would hit Iran “extremely hard” in the coming weeks, including hitting electric plants in the country if no deal was reached. Traders are likely to trim their stock holdings ahead
of the long weekend, with many markets closed for as long as four days. Goldman Sachs’ Paris headquarters was placed under heightened police surveillance Wednesday night following credible bomb threats believed to have come from an Iranian-linked group, according
to a report by French newspaper Le Parisien. This incident comes just days after French police foiled a suspected bomb attack near the Paris offices of Bank of America.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are sharply lower following President Trump’s address to the nation Wednesday night, where he reiterated that the US is on track to complete all of its military objectives
shortly, but did not provide specific details of an exit from the conflict. Without laying out any truly new information in his speech, the president implied that the US would be escalating the conflict in an attempt to end it. Shares in oil and gas companies
rebounded in premarket trading, while travel, mining and semiconductor stocks fell. Elsewhere, the Trump administration is said to be close to announcing tariffs on drugmakers that haven’t struck deals guaranteeing low prices in the US. The US is set to roll
out tiered tariffs on steel and aluminum products to simplify a process that has dogged American companies for months. While markets are shut Friday, key economic data is still scheduled to be released.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -1.5%, Nasdaq -2%, Russell 2000 -2.1%, DJI -1.4%

In pre-market trading, Oil and gas companies rebound after Trump’s prime-time address. Movers include Chevron (CVX) +2.9% and Exxon (XOM) +3.2%. Travel, mining and
semiconductor stocks fall as the conflict and higher energy prices weigh on investor sentiment. Among movers: United Airlines (UAL) -4%, Newmont (NEM) -4.9%. Globalstar (GSAT) rises 15% after a Financial Times report that Amazon.com Inc. is in talks to acquire
the satellite provider. Immunovant (IMVT) falls 7% after the drug developer said two late-stage studies of its experimental treatment for thyroid eye disease failed to meet their main goals. Penguin Solutions (PENG) rises 9% after the semiconductor device
company raised its full-year forecast for adjusted earnings.

European gauges are lower, snapping three days of gains, with technology and bank sectors leading the decliners while energy shares are the biggest outperformers. Oil
majors Shell Plc and BP Plc were among the biggest contributors in London, rising 3% and 4.5% respectively. Deutsche Lufthansa AG declined more than 4% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock on the risk of higher-for-longer fuel costs amid the Middle East
war. Amplifon falls as much as 4% after the stock was downgraded to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas. Mutares shares fell as much as 13% in Germany after the private equity firm sold shares via a private placement. Fortum gains as much as 4% after Citi
upgrades the Finnish utility to neutral and says its 2026 earnings may positively surprise. Stoxx 600 -1.6%, DAX -2.5%, CAC -1.5%, FTSE 100 -0.7%.  Tech -3.7%, Banks -3.2%, Basic Resources -2.9%. Energy +1.3%.

Shares in Asia fell after Trump’s threat to launch fresh attacks on Iran disappointed investors who were hoping for clearer signs of an end to the war. The MSCI Asia
Pacific Index dropped 2%, reversing small gains prior to Trump’s speech. Oil and natural gas stocks surged after Trump’s comments amid rising fears of prolonged supply shortages. Aluminum shares also advanced after Emirates Global Aluminium, the region’s largest
producer, suspended operations at a key site hit by Iranian missiles and drones over the weekend. Indian medicine makers declined as the Trump administration is set to announce tariffs as soon as today on drugmakers that haven’t struck deals guaranteeing low
prices in the US. Singapore’s AI-related stocks advanced after Microsoft pledged to invest $5.5 billion on cloud and AI infrastructure in the city state through 2029. The Philippines market was closed for a holiday. Kospi -5.4%, Nikkei 225 -2.4%, Indonesia
-2.2%, Taiwan -1.8%, ASX 200 -1.1%, CSI 300 -1%, Hang Seng Index -0.7%, Vietnam -0.5%. Sensex +0.25%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury futures are off session lows but remain under pressure with yields cheaper by 2bp to 4bp across the curve. Most losses occurred during Asia session following
US President Trump’s prime-time address pledging more aggressive action against Iran and lacking a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 10-year yield adds about four basis points to 4.35% on inflation concern. Curve spreads remain within a basis point of Wednesday’s
close. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Three offerings were priced Wednesday, with borrowers paying about 4bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 4.1 times oversubscribed.

METALS: 

Gold and silver prices plunged after Trump’s address offered little clarity on a resolution to the war in the Middle East. Spot gold tumbled as much as 4.3%, breaking
a four-day winning streak. The market will be closed for the Good Friday holiday and a desire to minimize risks ahead of the long weekend is likely to dominate trading. Spot gold -2.8%, Silver -5.7%, Copper futures -2.2%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil prices rallied after President Trump vowed to escalate the war against Iran in the coming weeks, raising fears of prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent jumped over 8% to more than $109 a barrel after Trump used a prime-time address to pledge more aggressive action against Iran over the next two to three weeks and offered no concrete plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Australia is weighing using powers
amid a possible gas shortfall, oil inventory stockpiles are dropping, and the UAE has called on the UN to approve measures, including force, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The head of the International Energy Agency also warned that supply disruptions would
⁠start to affect Europe’s economy in April, after the region had previously been shielded
by cargoes contracted before the start of the war.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar strengthens against all FX majors as Trump signaled a potential escalation in the conflict with Iran even as he suggested the war’s
strategic objectives have nearly been met. The yen is weak but still away from the psychologically important 160 level that is viewed as the line in the sand for intervention by Japanese authorities. Now that the speech is over, attention will turn to Friday’s
U.S. non-farm payrolls report. The market is looking for a 60,000 rise in jobs for March, according to the median estimate of economists polled by Reuters. US$ Index +0.5%, GBPUSD -0.7%, EURUSD -0.5%, USDJPY +0.5%, AUDUSD -0.8%, NZDUSD -0.75%, USDCHF +0.6%,
USDCAD +0.3%, USDSEK +1%, USDNOK +0.3%.

Spot Bitcoin -3%, Spot Ethereum -5.4%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• BHP (BHP AU) ADRs Raised to Hold at Berenberg; PT $65
• Brinker (EAT) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $177
• Chagee Holdings (CHA) ADRs Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $16
• Construction Partners (ROAD) Raised to Buy at B Riley; PT $135
• FB Financial (FBK) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $65
• Hope Bancorp (HOPE) Raised to Buy at Janney Montgomery; PT $14
• Kimbell Royalty Partners (KRP) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $17
• Martin Marietta (MLM) Raised to Buy at B Riley; PT $700
• RTX Corp (RTX) Raised to Buy at Melius
• Sigma Lithium Corp (SGML CN) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $17
• Tilray Brands (TLRY) Raised to Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $10
• Vale (VALE3 BZ) ADRs Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $19
• Wingstop (WING) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler
• Downgrades
• Akamai (AKAM) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $110
• Apellis Pharma (APLS) Cut to Neutral at Roth Capital Partners; PT $41
• BCE (BCE CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$37
• Dine Brands (DIN) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Expand Energy (EXE) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Gen Restaurant Group (GENK) Cut to Hold at Benchmark
• Methanex (MX CN) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT C$90.19
• Rogers Communications (RCI/B CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$56
• Telus (T CN) Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT C$19
• Wix.com (WIX) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $96
• Initiations
• Altisource Portfolio (ASPS) Reinstated Buy at B Riley; PT $8
• CareTrust REIT (CTRE) Reinstated Outperform at Mizuho Securities
• Cerence (CRNC) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $11
• Dominion Lending Centres Inc (DLCG CN) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT C$11.50
• Elf Beauty (ELF) Rated New Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $68
• Finance Of America (FOA) Rated New Buy at B Riley; PT $22.50
• Freeport (FCX) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $70
• HealWELL AI (AIDX CN) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$1.75
• IREN Ltd (IREN) Rated New Hold at Freedom Capital; PT $36
• Nutanix (NTNX) Rated New Buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc; PT $60
• Remitly (RELY) Rated New Buy at Freedom Capital; PT $20
• Repsol (REP SM) ADRs Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT $35.50
• SAB Biotherapeutics (SABS) Rated New Buy at Rodman & Renshaw; PT $13
• StandardAero (SARO) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $35
• Tango Therapeutics (TNGX) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $30
• Toyo (TOYO) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $15
• Ur-Energy (URE CN) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT C$3.25

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke